Teekay Tankers Investor Day Presentation June 18, 2012 Forward - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Teekay Tankers Investor Day Presentation June 18, 2012 Forward - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Teekay Tankers Investor Day Presentation June 18, 2012 Forward Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements (as defined in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) which reflect managements
2 www.teekaytankers.com
Forward Looking Statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements (as defined in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) which reflect management’s current views with respect to certain future events and performance, including statements regarding: the Company’s anticipated acquisition of 13 conventional crude oil and product tankers from Teekay Corporation, including the purchase price, timing and certainty of completing the transaction and the effect of the transaction on the Company’s business, Cash Available for Distribution, dividend, liquidity, and fixed cover for the 12-month period commencing July 1, 2012; opportunities in the product tanker segment; tanker market fundamentals, including the balance of supply and demand in the tanker market, and spot tanker charter rates; anticipated tanker fleet utilization; the Company’s financial position and ability to acquire additional assets; estimated dividends per share for the 12-month period commencing July 1, 2012 based on various spot tanker rates earned by the Company; anticipated dry-docking and vessel upgrade costs; the Company's ability to generate surplus cash flow and pay dividends; and potential vessel acquisitions, and their affect on the Company’s future Cash Available for Distribution and dividends per share. The following factors are among those that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties, and that should be considered in evaluating any such statement: failure to satisfy the closing conditions or obtain the necessary third party consents for the Company’s anticipated 13-vessel acquisition from Teekay Corporation or unexpected results from the technical inspection of those vessels that would result in a change to the transaction purchase price; changes in the production
- f or demand for oil; changes in trading patterns significantly affecting overall vessel tonnage requirements; lower than
expected level of tanker scrapping; changes in applicable industry laws and regulations and the timing of implementation of new laws and regulations; the potential for early termination of short- or medium-term contracts and inability of the Company to renew or replace short- or medium-term contracts; changes in interest rates and the capital markets; future issuances of the Company’s common stock; the ability of the owner of the two VLCC newbuildings securing the two first-priority ship mortgage loans to continue to meet its payment obligations; increases in the Company's expenses, including any dry-docking expenses and associated off-hire days; the ability of Teekay Tankers' Board of directors to establish cash reserves for the prudent conduct of Teekay Tankers' business or otherwise; failure
- f Teekay Tankers Board of Directors and its Conflicts Committee to accept future acquisitions of vessels that may be
- ffered by Teekay Corporation or third parties; and other factors discussed in Teekay Tankers’ filings from time to time
with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, including its Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011. The Company expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in the Company’s expectations with respect thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.
3 www.teekaytankers.com
- One of the world’s largest owners of mid-size
conventional tankers
- Portfolio of fixed-rate contracts enables the payment of
dividends during the current weak spot tanker market
- Strong balance sheet and liquidity enables us to:
○ Endure the current tanker cycle trough ○ Grow without having to raise additional equity
Teekay Tanker’s Highlights
4 www.teekaytankers.com
- Pay out all cash available for distribution after reserving for debt
principal payments and drydock expenses
- Maximize cash available for distribution by:
○ Tactically managing our mix of fixed-rate contracts and spot trading ○ Operating spot traded vessels in commercial tonnage pools which provide
the benefit of greater scale economies
○ Expanding our fleet through accretive acquisitions
Business Strategy – Yielding Results
TNK has paid a dividend each quarter since IPO in Dec. 2007, a total of $7.025 per share
5 www.teekaytankers.com
Teekay Tankers has acquired 13 conventional tankers from Teekay Corporation for a total purchase price of approximately $455 million Strategic Benefits
- Modern vessels acquired at a cyclical low purchase price
- Increases near-term fixed-rate coverage from 29% to 43% for the 12-month
period commencing July 1, 2012
- Provides diversification into product tankers
- Attractive, ‘covenant-lite’ debt facilities with favorable repayment profiles
- $400 million of liquidity post-transaction provides financial flexibility
Strategic 13-Vessel Acquisition
6 www.teekaytankers.com
$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $10,000/ $15,000 $15,000/ $20,000 $20,000/ $25,000 $25,000/ $30,000 $30,000/ $35,000 $35,000/ $40,000 Pro Forma Pre-transaction Aframax / Suezmax
Transaction is Accretive to CAD and Dividend Per Share
1. Cash Available for Distribution represents net income (loss) excluding depreciation and amortization, unrealized (gains) losses from derivatives, any non-cash items or write-offs of other non- recurring items, and net income attributable to the historical results of vessels acquired by the Company from Teekay for the period when these vessels were owned and operated by Teekay. 2. Based on illustrative spot tanker rates of $15,000 per day for Aframax and $20,000 per day for Suezmax. 3. Based on closing share price of $4.16 on June 8, 2012.
For every $1,000 per day increase in spot rates, CAD1 and dividend per share increase by approximately $0.075
Illustrative CAD 1 and Dividend Accretion
Pre- Transaction Pro-Forma
Accretion
CAD (Pre-Drydocking) per share
0.51 0.82 61%
Less: Drydocking Reserve per share
(0.10) (0.17)
Less: Principal Reserve per share
(0.02) (0.19)
Dividend Accretion per Share
0.39 0.46 19%
Dividend Yield
9% 11%
$15,000 / $20,000 2 (Aframax / Suezmax)
Illustrative Annualized CAD1 Per Share 12 months Ending June 30, 2013
$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $10,000/ $15,000 $15,000/ $20,000 $20,000/ $25,000 $25,000/ $30,000 $30,000/ $35,000 $35,000/ $40,000 Pro Forma Pre-transaction Aframax / Suezmax
Illustrative Annualized Dividend Per Share 12 months Ending June 30, 2013
7 www.teekaytankers.com
- Post-transaction, TNK will become one of the world’s largest owners
- f mid-size conventional tanker tonnage
Acquisition Provides TNK with Significant Scale
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Sovcomflot AET Teekay Tankers Pro Forma Fredriksen Group Dynacom NAT Minerva Marine Tsakos Marmaras Navigation General Maritime Teekay Tankers Pre- Transaction
MDwt Source: Owner websites/Clarksons
Comparable Fleet Size* (MDWT of Owned Tonnage)
* Fleet data includes top owners of Aframax/LR2 and Suezmax tankers only.
8 www.teekaytankers.com
Name Class Y/Built Erik Spirit Aframax 2005 Kareela Spirit Aframax 1999 Nassau Spirit Aframax 1998 Ashkini Spirit Suezmax 2003 Iskmati Spirit Suezmax 2003 Kaveri Spirit Suezmax 2004 Zenith Spirit Suezmax 2009 Donegal Spirit LR2 2006 Limerick Spirit LR2 2007 Galway Spirit LR2 2007 Ganges Spirit Suezmax 2002 ←$30,5001 Yamuna Spirit Suezmax 2002 ←$30,5001 Everest Spirit Aframax 2004 ←$17,000 Esther Spirit Aframax 2004 $18,2002 Kanata Spirit Aframax 1999 $17,250 Matterhorn Spirit Aframax 2005 $21,375 Narmada Spirit Suezmax 2003 $22,0003 Godavari Spirit Suezmax 2004 $21,000 Teesta Spirit MR 2004 $21,500 VLCC Mortgage A VLCC Mortgage B Mahanadi Spirit MR 2000 $21,500 Kyeema Spirit Aframax 1999 $17,000 Helga Spirit Aframax 2005 $18,000 Pinnacle Spirit Suezmax 2008 $21,000 Summit Spirit Suezmax 2008 $21,000 Hugli Spirit MR 2005 $30,600* Americas Spirit Aframax 2003 $21,000 Australian Spirit Aframax 2004 $21,000 Axel Spirit Aframax 2004 $19,500 Newbuilding J/V VLCC 2013 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Teekay Tankers Fleet
Trading in Teekay Pools
Fixed-Rate Coverage (estimated) Pre- Transaction Post- Transaction 12 months Commencing July 1, 2012
29% 43%
FY 2013
23% 34%
1 Plus profit share. Profit share above $30,500 per day entitles Teekay Tankers to the first $3,000 per day plus 50% thereafter of vessel’s incremental Gemini Pool earnings, settled in the second quarter of each year. 2 Includes profit share paying 49% of earnings in excess of $18,700 generated December 1 through March 20.
3
Profit share above the applicable minimum time-charter rate entitles Teekay Tankers to 50% of the difference between the average TD5 BITR rate and the minimum rate.
4
Charter rate covers incremental Australian crewing expenses of approximately $14,000 per day above international crewing costs.
9 www.teekaytankers.com
Proven Pool Performance
AFRAMAX RSA
Aframax Segment Average last 4 quarters 2011 TCE Aframax RSA 12,073 12,995 BITR Aframax Avg 7,299 7,944 Clarksons (90%) 10,128 9,546 LRII Segment Average last 4 quarters 2011 TCE Taurus Pool 11,539 12,690 BITR LR2 TC1 7,767 9,623 Clarksons (90%) 8,547 9,662 Suezmax Segment Average last 4 quarters 2011 TCE Gemini Pool 16,301 14,266 BITR Suezmax TD5 15,308 14,494 Clarksons (90%) 12,662 12,452
10 www.teekaytankers.com
Specialized Assets Enhance Dividend
- 50% VLCC Ownership
○
VLCC newbuilding scheduled to deliver in mid-2013 with fixed five- year time-charter with profit share
○
CAPEX fully financed
- VLCC Mortgage Loans
○
Fixed-rate return of 10% until mid- 2013
○
Loans secured with first-priority mortgages on two modern VLCCs
Current Market Lows 2013 Improving Market Focus on Fixed Return Focus on Operating Leverage
11 www.teekaytankers.com
- Seasonally weak summer market expected
○ Q3 traditionally the worst quarter for tanker demand ○ Uncertain global economy impacting oil demand ○ Potential for lower OPEC oil production due to declining oil prices
- Stronger winter market fundamentals expected in Q4-12
○ Heating demand in the northern hemisphere ○ Return of refineries from seasonal maintenance ○ Transit delays due to adverse weather conditions
2H-2012 Tanker Market Outlook
Upside Factors Downside Factors Lower oil prices stimulate demand Weakening global economy Easing Iranian tensions Potential OPEC supply cutbacks Atlantic hurricane season Slowdown / reversal of stockbuilding Re-opening of Atlantic refineries Non-OPEC supply outages (N. Sea, GoM, Sudan, Syria, Yemen)
12 www.teekaytankers.com
2013 Tanker Market Improvement
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E
% Growth Tanker Demand Growth Tanker Fleet Growth
Global recession; accelerating fleet growth Floating storage steadied the market
Source: Platou / Internal estimates
Slowdown in demand; fleet growth dominates
Moving towards balance by end
- f 2012 –
demand is the wild card
Improved fleet utilization on the back of lower fleet growth Demand Range Supply Range
13 www.teekaytankers.com
- Base Case: 3.4% tanker fleet growth in 2013
- Upside Case: 2.5% fleet growth if scrapping remains at 2012 levels
- Downside Case: 4.5% fleet growth if construction delays /
cancellations moderate from 5-year average of ~30%
Improvement Factor #1: Low Fleet Growth
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
- 30
- 20
- 10
10 20 30 40 50
Projected Tanker Fleet Growth To 2014
Deliveries Removals Net Fleet Growth (%)
Base Case
2012 2013 VLCC
+5.8% +5.2% Suezmax +7.1% +6.8% Aframax +1.2% +0.2%
MR
+1.0% +3.1%
Source: Clarksons / Internal estimates
14 www.teekaytankers.com
- Base Case: 1.3 mb/d (1.5%) oil demand growth driven by China,
which translates into approximately 4.5% tanker demand growth
- Upside Case: additional strategic stockbuilding during 2013
- Downside Case: global economic downturn starting 2H-2012,
extending into 2013 and spreading to non-OECD
Improvement Factor #2: Demand Growth
Oil Demand Estimates for 2013 Base Case JP Morgan EIA Credit Suisse Non-OECD Demand
+1.5 mb/d +1.2 mb/d +1.5 mb/d
OECD Demand
- 0.1 mb/d
+0.1 mb/d
- 0.2 mb/d
Total (mb/d)
+1.3 mb/d +1.3 mb/d +1.3 mb/d
Total (%)
+1.5% +1.5% +1.5%
Implies approximately 4.5% tanker demand growth
15 www.teekaytankers.com
Kozmino End of East Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline Pipeline expands to 1.0 mb/d by end-2012 Ust-Luga End of Baltic Pipeline System 2 (BPS-2) 12-15 cargoes per month on full ramp-up
- Lengthening of voyage distances due to an increase in long-haul
Atlantic-Pacific crude oil movements
- Ramp-up of Russian exports from Ust-Luga (Baltic) and Kozmino
(Pacific) positive for Aframax trade
2013 Stimulus – Changing Trade Patterns
16 www.teekaytankers.com
Long-Term Crude Tanker Demand Drivers
Increasing reliance on long-haul OPEC barrels… …with China the main driver of demand growth
- Growth in long-haul crude trade driven by increasing reliance on tonne-mile
intensive OPEC barrels and Asian oil demand growth
○
More MEG / Atlantic barrels moving East
- Growth in crude trade is beneficial to all medium and large sized crude oil
tankers
○
VLCC / Suezmax spot rates show a 91% correlation since 1990
○
VLCC / Aframax spot rates show a 86% correlation since 1990
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 10 20 30 40 50 60 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
MB/D
Global Oil Production Outlook
Middle East Other OPEC Share of Total Source: IEA
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E MB/D
Source: IEA / BP
China Oil Market Fundamentals
Oil Demand Domestic Oil Production Refinery Capacity Crude Imports
17 www.teekaytankers.com
- Global refining capacity set to increase by ~8 mb/d during 2012-2016
○
~40% of new capacity is from export-oriented facilities in India / MEG
- Future of older / less efficient refineries in the Atlantic Basin likely to be
marginalized
○
Displaced in part by long-haul product imports from the East
- Similar to crude sector, growth in the global product tanker trade will benefit
all sizes of product tankers
Long-Term Product Tanker Demand Drivers
Product tanker tonne-miles set to grow… …as fleet growth slows to a 10-year low
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E
% Fleet Growth Million Deadweight Fleet Growth* (mdwt) Fleet Growth (%)
Source: IEA / Internal Source: Clarksons / Internal estimates
18 www.teekaytankers.com
- Approximately 20-25% decline in asset prices in 2011; further 10% in
2012-to-date
- Asset prices for older (>15 years) vessels under significant pressure
- Newbuilding prices likely to see further downward pressure in 2H-12
○ Lack of new orders putting pressure on shipyards to cut prices ○ Lower steel costs pave the way for lower prices ○ Lack of financing likely to constrain ordering
Asset Prices – Nearing The Bottom
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Suezmax Asset Prices
NB 5-yr 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Aframax Asset Prices
NB 5-yr Source: Clarksons Source: Clarksons $ millions $ millions
19 www.teekaytankers.com
Simple and Sustainable Business Model
- Teekay Tankers has strong fixed cover to support its
dividend in a weak near-term tanker market
- Expected tanker market recovery in the medium-term will
benefit our modern fleet
- Strong balance sheet provides flexibility for growth:
○ In-chartering to increase operating leverage ○ Accretive acquisitions ○ Next generation newbuildings