technology for massive electricity production Russian Academy of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Antonio Luque Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia

Photovoltaics: a solar technology for massive electricity production

First International Forum Renewable Energy REENFOR-2013 "Towards raising energy and economic efficiencies”

Moscow, 22-23 October, 2013

Russian Academy of Scienc

Outline

• The grounds of the PV technology
• The necessity of sustainable energy
• Forecast
• 3rd generation solar cells
• Conclusions

Russian Academy of Scienc

Traditional PV installations

Russian Academy of Scienc

Moura (Portugal), 46 MW

Installed by the Spanish Company “Acciona”

Russian Academy of Scienc

Outline

• The grounds of the PV technology
• The necessity of sustainable energy
• Forecast
• 3rd generation solar cells
• Conclusions

Russian Academy of Scienc

The farthest precedent: Becquerel

• A. E. Becquerel, “Recherches sur

les effets de la radiation chimique de la lumière solaire au moyen de courants éléctriques” Comptes Rendues à l’Academie des Sciences 9, 145-149, (1839) Taken from M.A.Green, Proc. 21st PVSC, 1-8 (1990)

Russian Academy of Scienc

Einstein explains the effect

1921 Nobel Laureate in Physics for his services to Theoretical Physics, and especially for his discovery

• f the law of the

photoelectric effect. Albert Einstein, “Über einen die Erzeugung und Erwandlung des Lichtes betreffenden heuristischen Sichtspunkt”Annalen der Physik, 17, 132 (1905)

Russian Academy of Scienc

The first “effective” Si cell

• Developed at Bell Labs (Murray Hill, NJ).
• On 6 cm2 wafers (area not said)
• Diffused junction (B on As. 2.5 m?)
• All back contacted
• Efficiency 6%

(15 times over preceding cells)

• Field test in Americus, Georgia.

(abandoned because of birds!)

• Successfully used (diffused n/p Si cells) in

Sputnik in 1957 D.M. Chapin (center), C.S. Fuller (right) and G.L. Pearson (left), “A New Silicon P-N Junction Photocell for Converting Solar Radiation into Electrical Power”,

• J. Appl. Phys. 25 676 (1954).

The New York Times: 26 April 1954 “Vast Power is Tapped by Battery Using Sand Ingredient” “…may mark the beginning of a new era, leading eventually to the realization of one of mankind’s more cherished dream —the harnessing of the almost limitedness energy of the sun for the uses of civilisation”.

Russian Academy of Scienc

The grounds of the PV effect

• Photons pump

electrons from valence to conduction band

• appropriate

contacts insure conduction band electrons are delivered to load and recovered by valence band

Electrons

• ut

Electrons in EFc EFv VB CB h1 eV

Russian Academy of Scienc

Outline

• The grounds of the PV technology
• The necessity of sustainable energy
• Forecast
• 3rd generation solar cells
• Conclusions

Russian Academy of Scienc

Few obvious statements

• The incorporation of 2 billion of inhabitants to the

consumption pattern of the 1 billon in the developed world will require unprecedented effort in the management of resources and wastes to allow for sustainability

• Solar energy is the only sustainable source of energy we

can count on. Coal, and to a bigger extent uranium (unless accepting the plutonium cycle), oil and gas have limited duration and all involve unbearable wastes.

• Photovoltaics is the best way of exploiting solar energy.

Unlike other technologies based on the XIX century science, photovoltaics relies on the XXI century science. Very high efficiencies will eventually be possible and this is a must to exploit at low cost a resource that is huge but diluted.

Russian Academy of Scienc

HDI and per capita energy use

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#Demand_for_oil 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 5000 10000 15000 Human Development Index Power use per capita (kWh/year) South & East Asia Pacific West Europe East Europe Africa Middle East M&S America N America

Russian Academy of Scienc

Matter may be recicled; Not (free) energy: degraded after use

Anthropogenic references 8.900 Mtep/year artificial 1.100 from biomass 10.000 Mtep/year in total ~ 12.8 TW Terrestrial energies Geothermal: 30 TW Tidal: 3 TW Solar Energy Extraterrestrial: 173,000 TW On biosphere: 89,000 TW Solar ineraction Air: wind energ. Water: hydropower Solar: light & heat

José M. Martínez-Val; UPM-Cátedra Club de Roma, presentación 12/05/05

Energy balances

Solar Wind Thousednds of Ej Solar Wind Thousednds of Ej

TB Johansson et al. Eds, Renewable Energy, Island Press, Washington, 1993

Russian Academy of Scienc

Many technologies, increasing efficienies

NREL-Revision 20120209

Russian Academy of Scienc

Energy and food

• Emerged land for crops (today)

13%

• Food to edible calories eff. (today)

0.03%

• Potential land for crops

27%

• PV ground efficiency by 2050

10%

• PV=1/3 electricity at (10%)

<0.2%

Russian Academy of Scienc

Outline

• The grounds of the PV technology
• The necessity of sustainable energy
• Forecast
• 3rd generation solar cells
• Conclusions

Russian Academy of Scienc

The 2001 Luque’s market forecast exercise

Russian Academy of Scienc

PV experience curve

Solar Generation 6: Empowering the world, 2011

Russian Academy of Scienc

The 2001 Luque’s market forecast exercise

Russian Academy of Scienc

0.1 1 10 100 1000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Yearly Market (GWp/year) Year

Yearly Market

Si=1.33, C=$2.5B Si=1.55, C=$2.5B Si=1.33, C=$5B Si=1.55, C=$5B Si=1.33, C=$10B Si=1.55, C=$10B Real market

Yearly PV market: predictions and reality

Forecast in 1998 PIB industr. world 0.059% 0.029% 0.015% Elasticity-learning model

• 1A. Luque, "Photovoltaic markets and costs forecast based on a demand elasticity model,"

Progress in Photovoltaics: Res. Appl. 9, 303-312 (2001).

Russian Academy of Scienc

Yearly PV costs: predictions in 1998

0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Price ($/Wp) Year

Prices

Si=1.33, Cs=$2.5B Si=1.55, Cs=$2.5B Si=1.33, Cs=$5B Si=1.55, Cs=$5B Si=1.33, Cs=$10B Si=1.55, Cs=$10B

Inflation multiplier in 2010: 1.34 PIB ind. world 0.015% 0.029% 0.059%

• 1A. Luque, "Photovoltaic markets and costs forecast based on a demand elasticity model,"

Progress in Photovoltaics: Res. Appl. 9, 303-312 (2001).

Russian Academy of Scienc

PV installations: predictions and reality

• 1A. Luque, "Photovoltaic markets and costs forecast based on a demand elasticity model,"

Progress in Photovoltaics: Res. Appl. 9, 303-312 (2001).

TB Johansson et al. Eds, Renewable Energy, Island Press, Washington, 1993

0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 1990 2010 2030 2050 Total installed power (GWp) Year

Pessimistic Probable Optimistic High LCOE Quick learning Real RIGES Updated model

Forecast in 1998

Russian Academy of Scienc

An excerpt of the 2001 Luque’s market study

Russian Academy of Scienc

12% by 2030?

• IPCC Mitigation WG III penetration: 1.4%
• 2030 central scenario penetration: 1.6%
• 2030 optimistic scenario penetration: 4.4%
• 12% by 2030 implies 100 GW/year
• A. Luque and S. Hegedus, "Handbook of Photovoltaic Science and

Engineering," 2nd. ed Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 2011.

Russian Academy of Scienc

0.1 1 10 100 1000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Yearly Market (GWp/year) Year

Yearly Market

Si=1.33, C=$2.5B Si=1.55, C=$2.5B Si=1.33, C=$5B Si=1.55, C=$5B Si=1.33, C=$10B Si=1.55, C=$10B Real market

Yearly PV market: predictions and reality

Forecast in 1998 PIB industr. world 0.059% 0.029% 0.015% Elasticity-learning model

• 1A. Luque, "Photovoltaic markets and costs forecast based on a demand elasticity model,"

Progress in Photovoltaics: Res. Appl. 9, 303-312 (2001).

Russian Academy of Scienc

PV pergola in Prime Minster residence with 41.4 kWp installed en 2000 by IES/UPM. Here in its inauguration the first Royal Decree was announced

The regulatory frame in Spain (Royal Decree 436/2004)

• photovoltaic installations may inject to the

grid the totality of the energy produced (not

• nly the excess).
• Tariff for power until 100 kWp:

575% (of the regulated tariff) during the first 25 years and 460% form them on (forever).

• The regulated tariff for 2004 is 7,2072

c€/KWh. Thus PV is paid at 0.414 €/kWh (today above 0.42 €/kWh)

• The tariff and incentives will be revised

when PV electricity is 150 MWp Then every 4 years.

• Changed into no cap by the the end of 2006.
• Revision in Royal Decree 1578/2008 : less

than 0.32 €/kWh, cap <500 MW

• Since 2011. No feed in tariff at all.

Russian Academy of Scienc

Photovoltaic biggest plants in 2008

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year

World volume of sales (MWp). Average yearly growth between 1996-2004 Photovoltaics: 33.4% Semiconductors: 6.2% In 2004: PV is 1.7% of semiconductors

http://www.pvresources.com / last update 28/10/08

Data on the possibility of penetration of PV in the Spanish electric system

Russian Academy of Scienc

The largest PV plants today

Latest update: 9/10/2013 http://www.pvresources.com

Russian Academy of Scienc

200 MW PV for 360 Mo$

$1.8/W

Abengoa wins $360m contract to build 200MW

• Calif. PV plant

Spanish renewable energy company Abengoa says it has won a contract to engineer, build and start-up a 200MW PV plant in the Imperial Valley of California.

It will be ready in 18 month, in the second half of 2013

RSS feedTwitter Trial|Subscribe RSS feedTwitter Trial|Subscribe

Published: Wednesday, June 13 2012 http://www.rechargenews.com/ener gy/solar/article315176.ece

Russian Academy of Scienc

search search

An excerpt of the 2001 Luque’s market study

Russian Academy of Scienc

Outline

• The grounds of the PV technology
• The necessity of sustainable energy
• Forecast
• 3rd generation solar cells
• Conclusions

Russian Academy of Scienc

The Spring 2002 Cercedilla Meeting

Russian Academy of Scienc

Many technologies, increasing efficienies

NREL-Revision 20120209

Russian Academy of Scienc

0,01 0,1 1 10 100 1000 10000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Cummulated Market (GWp) Year

Yearly Market

RIGES S=1.33, C=$2.5B, ps/p0=0.1 Si=1.33, C=$5B, ps/p0=0.1 Si=1.35, C=$5B, ps/p0=0.25 Si=1.55, C=10B, ps/p0=0.1 "low cost" quick learning r=25% r=18.8% Real

PV installations: predictions and reality

Forecast in 1998 PIB ind. world $2.5B=0.015% $5B=0.029% $10B=0.059%

• 1A. Luque, "Photovoltaic markets and costs forecast based on a demand elasticity model,"

Progress in Photovoltaics: Res. Appl. 9, 303-312 (2001).

Russian Academy of Scienc

FULLSPECTRUM: Partners involved

Russian Academy of Scienc

20 25 30 35 40 45 1 10 100 1000 10000 Concentration, X (suns) Efficiency (%)

1J GaAs (IES-UPM)

2J LM GaInP/GaAs (IES-UPM) 2J LMM GaInP/GaInAs (FhG-ISE) 3J LMM (FhG-ISE) 3J LMM (FhG-ISE) 3J IM-LMM (NREL) 3J LMM (Spectrolab)

Multijunction solar cells

Best t concent ntrator rator III II-V solar r cells

*R. R. King et al., Applied Physics Letters 90 (2007). **J. F. Geisz et al., Applied Physics

Letters 91, (2007).

Russian Academy of Scienc

Russian Academy of Scienc

Puertollano working

Normalized Power

0.9 0.95 1 1.05 1.1

• A. Luque and A. Marti, Electronics Letters, 44, pp. 943-U199, 2008.

Russian Academy of Scienc

The biggest CPV plant so far (summer 2012) in operation

Fabio Mondini , Recent CPV Deployments, Concentrator Photovoltaic (CPV) Workshop Proven Technology for High Energy Production May, 9th 2012 Verona, Italy

2012

Russian Academy of Scienc

New Generation Concentrator Phtovoltaics

Russian Academy of Scienc

42

Project Partners 7 European and 9 Japanese Partners

Work package leaders are marked in red.

Strong Consortium of Universities, Research Institutes, SMEs and Industry!

Russian Academy of Scienc

Many technologies, increasing efficienies

NREL-Revision 20120209

Sharp

Russian Academy of Scienc

Many technologies, increasing efficienies

NREL-Revision 20120209

Soytec/ISE/LETI

Russian Academy of Scienc

An excerpt of the 2001 Luque’s market study ?

Russian Academy of Scienc

Revolutionary Photovoltaic Devices:

50% Efficient Solar Cells

Russian Academy of Scienc

63.2 % 0,71 eV 1,24 eV 1,95 eV

Optimum gaps

W Shockley & HJ Queisser,

• J. Appl. Phys. 32 510 (1961)
• A. Luque & A. Martí, Phys.
• Rev. Lett. 78 5014 (1997)

Partially filled

Russian Academy of Scienc

Impact

(Google schoolar) (Thomson Reuters)

Russian Academy of Scienc

Luque/Ioffe Institute awarded with Russian MEGA GRANT for the development of next generation photovoltaics based on IB (42 projects selected from 720proposals)

IBSC vs MJC

MJSC IBSC

Russian Academy of Scienc

MEGSC: Expected experimental results (material) E > 2 Eg Carrier Multiplication Auger Recombination

t

In QDs with more than one exciton, relaxation dynamics are governed by Auger recombination.

decay time

Russian Academy of Scienc

MEGSC: Experimental achievements (device)

O.E. Semonin et al., Science. 2011, 334, 1530-1533

Peak EQE: 114% Peak IQE: 130% PbSe QD-based solar cell

Russian Academy of Scienc

An excerpt of the 2001 Luque’s market study ?

Russian Academy of Scienc

Outline

• The unstoppable growth
• Why this has happened
• How this has happened
• My published forecast
• PV vs. PV
• Conclusions

Russian Academy of Scienc

Conclusions

• Solar energy is the only sustainable option for the explosive expansion of

the western consumption pattern

• PV is already a reality; about 100 GW are installed in the world
• One and possibly, three conditions are met for achieving prize parity with

wholesale prevalent electricity in the next decade or even earlier:

– Bigger plants are being installed that reduce drastically commercial costs – Very high efficiencies (over 40%) have been achieved and novel high efficiency concepts, towards 50% are being researched. They have a fast learning curve potential

• PV will most likely become a major producer of electricity before the half
• f the century.
• It might be able to produce solar electricity cheaper than any other

generation technology

• Its widespread will be limited by storage requirements , yet grid

penetration of 15% and more is to be expected without special storage.

Russian Academy of Scienc