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15. Januar 2007 www.ie-leipzig.de Forschung, Institut fr Energetik und Umwelt Entwicklung, Dienstleistung fr - Energie Institute for Energy and Environment - Umwelt Economic Assessment of Geothermal Energy Generation Martin

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SLIDE 1

Forschung, Entwicklung, Dienstleistung für

  • Energie
  • Umwelt

Institut für Energetik und Umwelt gGmbH, Torgauer Str. 116, D-04347 Leipzig, info@ie-leipzig.de

Institut für Energetik und Umwelt

Institute for Energy and Environment

www.ie-leipzig.de

  • 15. Januar 2007

Economic Assessment of Geothermal Energy Generation

Mid-Term Conference, Potsdam, 11th January 2007 Martin Kaltschmitt, Stephanie Frick

in cooperation with

Institute for Environmental Technology and Energy Economics Technische Universität Hamburg-Harburg

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SLIDE 2
  • Agenda

Introduction Geothermal energy production Economic analysis (Case Study)

  • Reservoir
  • Power plant concept
  • Investments and operation

costs

  • Power generation costs
  • Sensitivity analysis

Conclusions

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SLIDE 3
  • Geothermal Energy

Advantages:

  • No seasonal and daily course of

the energy supply

  • Demand-oriented energy

provision is easily possible

  • Quasi – renewable
  • Energy provision potential is very

huge

  • Basically independent from a

certain spot Disadvantages:

  • Technology is still very much depen-

dent from the local circumstances

  • Low electrical efficiency due to

thermodynamic restrictions

  • High investments and substantial

risks at the beginning which are hard to cover by an insurance so far

  • Market penetration in Europe is still

lacking

  • Not only due to climate protection reasons renewable sources of energy

gain more and more importance on a world wide scale as well as within

  • Europe. This is also and especially true for the heat and/or electricity

provision from geothermal resources due to numerous advantages.

  • One of the main advantage of a use of geothermal energy is that heat,

electricity and even cold can be provided easily with the already available conversion technology.

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SLIDE 4
  • Geothermal Heat Production in Europe

Source: http://www.f-e-e.org/upload/DV20050528-Flovenz.htm

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SLIDE 5
  • Geothermal Power Production in Europe

Italy Turkey Iceland Portugal

(Azores)

France

(French West Indies)

Russia

(Kamtchatka, Kuril Islands)

Germany Austria

Source: IGG (A. Manzella)

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SLIDE 6
  • Source: GGA Hannover

Geothermal Energy Use in Europe

Geothermal heat production is already widely used and can

be seen as a competitive energy source for heat supply if the geological conditions are promising.

For power production almost only geothermal high enthalpy

fields are exploited so far; but their potential is limited throughout Europe.

Power production from geo-

thermal low enthalpy resources is only realized in some pro- jects so far. Beside consider- able technical challenges, predominantly economic barriers (i.e. too high costs compared to competing energy sources) hinder their wider use.

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SLIDE 7
  • Glasgow

London Bergen Goeteborg Hamburg Stockholm Umea Tallinn Riga Smolensk Minsk Vilnius Kiev Odessa Belgrad Rom Genua Lyon Bern Trieste Sarajevo Paris Luxembourg Frankfurt Brüssel Berlin Leipzig Prag Marseille Neapel Tirana Wien München Budapest Kopenhagen Petersburg Sofia Mailand Trondheim Danzig Warschau Helsinki Toulouse Bukarest Barcelona Amsterdam Istanbul >150 mW/m² mW/m² 100-150 80-100 60-80 40-60 <40 keine Daten

no data 60 - 80 40 - 60 < 40 > 150 100 - 150 80 - 100 Values in mW/m

2

Heat Flow

Power Generation Costs

  • Reservoir Characteristics -

Typical low enthalpy reservoirs (predominantly hot water aquifers)

  • Area 1: North German Basin

(characteristic for parts of The Netherlands, Germany, Poland)

  • Area 2: Upper Rhine Graben

(characteristic for parts of Germany, France, Switzerland)

  • Area 3: Molasse Basin

(characteristic for parts of Germany and Austria)

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SLIDE 8
  • Power Generation Costs
  • Power Plant Concept -

Water Water Water Cooling medium 7,500 h/a 11.5 % 1.4 MW ORC 400 m 130 m3/h 150 ° C 2,900 m Upper Rhine Graben 7,500 h/a 10.2 % 1.8 MW ORC 400 m 300 m3/h 120 ° C 3,350 m Molasse Basin 7,500 h/a Full load hours 400 m Operating water level

under top ground surface

ORC Power plant technology 1.1 MW Power plant capacity 11.5 % Power plant efficiency

design point

4,300 m Borehole depth 150 ° C Brine temperature 100 m3/h Flow rate North German Basin

Source: GGA Hannover

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SLIDE 9
  • Power Generation Costs
  • Investments and Operation Costs -

Power plant technology:

0.5 … 8 Mio. € 1,700 … 3,000 €/kWel

Brine cycle: 0.1 … 2 Mio. € Stimulation: 0.1 … 0.7 Mio. € Production pump:

0.1 … 0.4 Mio. €

per well:

2 … > 9 Mio. € depth ca. 2,500 … 5,000 m

Drill site: 0.2 ... 1.2 Mio. € Bore hole measurement: 0.2 … 0.4 Mio. € Production tests: 0.1 … 0.7 Mio. €

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SLIDE 10
  • Power Generation Costs
  • Investments and Operation Costs -

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

borehole costs stimulation production and injektion pumps brine pipeline pow er plant planning additional charge for unforeseen risk insurance

Investmentcosts in Mio. Euro

  • Norddt. Becken

Süddt. Molassebecken Oberrheingraben

0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5

  • verhaul,

maintenance personnel auxiliary pow er Operating Costs in Mio. Euro per year

  • Norddt. Becken

Süddt. Molassebecken Oberrheingraben

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SLIDE 11
  • Power Generation Costs
  • Shares of the Investments -

boreholes; 70% planning; 3% stimulation; 2% production and injection pumps; 2% brine pipeline; 5% power plant; 15% miscellaneous; 3%

Total investments: 15,4 to 28,2 Mio. €

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SLIDE 12
  • Power Generation Costs
  • Frame Conditions -

30 a Depreciation period 30 % / 12 % Shareholders‘ equity ratio / interest rate 70 % / 5 % Credit capital ratio / interest rate 0.07 €/kWh 0.032 €/kWh Economic Basis Data Electricity purchase price Heat seeling price * Heat full load hours Heat capacity Flow / return temperature

(low temperature district heating)

3,000 h/a Upper Rhine Graben 3.0 MW Molasse Basin 7.0 MW North German Basin 2.3 MW 75 ° C / 55 ° C * District Heat Provision Data

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SLIDE 13
  • Power Generation Costs
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SLIDE 14
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SLIDE 15
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SLIDE 16
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SLIDE 17
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SLIDE 22
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EU-wide feed-in tariffs

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SLIDE 23
  • EU-wide Feed-in Tariffs for

Geothermal Energy

  • Austria: 7,00 ct/kWh
  • Belgium: 2,50 ct/kWh
  • Czech Republic: 15,56 ct/kWh
  • Estonia: 5,10 ct/kWh
  • France: 7,62 ct/kWh (overseas:

7,93)

  • Germany: up to 15,00 ct/kWh
  • Greece: 7,31 ct/kWh
  • Slovakia: 9,04 ct/kWh
  • Slovenia: 5,85 + 2,52 ct/kWh
  • Spain: 6,49 + 2,94 ct/kWh
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SLIDE 24
  • Power Generation Costs
  • Heat and Electricty Costs -
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SLIDE 25
  • Power Generation Costs
  • Sensitivity Analysis -
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SLIDE 26
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SLIDE 27
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SLIDE 28
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SLIDE 29
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SLIDE 30
  • In general geothermal electricity production from low enthalpy fields is only

under very promising frame conditions economically feasible:

  • high reimbursement rates,
  • very good geological conditions,
  • sale of heat.
  • To improve this situation among others the following measures have to be

realized:

  • minimizing the geological risks by improving existing and developing

improved and new exploration technologies,

  • cost reduction and risk minimization during drilling and stimulation,
  • ptimization of the above ground power plant technology e.g. through a

combination with other technologies,

  • improvement of the site specific heat demand.
  • If these preconditions are fulfilled and these challenges are met there is in-

deed a good chance to develop technically promising, economic feasible, environmentally sound and socially acceptable geothermal energy systems.

Conclusions

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SLIDE 31
  • Thank you very much for

your attention!

Institute for Energy and Environment gGmbH Torgauer Str. 116; D-04347 Leipzig

  • Tel. / Fax: 0341 – 2434 – 113 / 133

Institute of Environmental Technology and Energy Economics (IUE), Hamburg University of Technology Eissendorfer Str. 40; D-21073 Hamburg

  • Tel. / Fax: 040 – 42878 – 3008 / 2315

Contact person:

  • Prof. Dr.-Ing. Martin Kaltschmitt

Dipl.-Ing. Stephanie Frick