Tackling long-term UK infrastructure needs Manuela Di Mauro January 2019 @NatInfraCom @Manuela_dimauro
Outline • The National Infrastructure Assessment: looking 30 years ahead • Challenges posed to future water and wastewater infrastructure • Ensure resilience to extreme weather • Next steps 2
The National Infrastructure Commission “The National Infrastructure Commission is a permanent body which will provide the government with impartial, expert advice on major long-term infrastructure challenges. The objectives of the Commission are to: • support sustainable economic growth across all regions of the UK; • improve competitiveness and • improve quality of life “The National Infrastructure Commission commits to delivering the following products and services: • A National Infrastructure Assessment once in every Parliament, setting out the NIC’s assessment of long -term infrastructure needs with recommendations to the government” Scope covers: transport; digital; energy; water & waste water; flood risk; and solid waste. Plus interdependencies and cross- cutting issues 3
The National Infrastructure Assessment The Commission’s plan of action for the UK’s infrastructure over the next 10-30 years Recommendations include: • Nationwide full fibre broadband by 2033 • Half of power provided by renewables by 2030 • Three quarters of plastic packaging recycled by 2030 • £43 billion of transport funding for regional cities • Preparing for 100% electric vehicle sales by 2030 • Ensuring resilience to extreme drought • A national standard of flood resilience for all communities by 2050. Alongside these, better design and more efficient funding and financing can save money, reduce risk and create a legacy that looks good and works well. The government has committed to respond to the Commission’s recommendations and to adopt agreed recommendations as government policy. 4
Challenges: population growth Estimated and projected total population, UK, mid-1981 to mid-2041 Source: Office for National Statistics (2018) https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2 5 016basedprojections/variants
Challenges: climate change Source: Met Office (2018) https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/collaboration/ukcp
Challenges: climate change impacts - drought • Currently not all companies are resilient to the “worst historic drought”, approximately a drought with 1% annual chance to occur. • All regions are projected to be in deficit during such drought by 2050. Worst historic Severe Extreme drought drought drought Low population, Medium climate High population, High climate Source: NIC (2018) https://www.nic.org.uk/publications/preparing-for-a-drier-future-englands-water-infrastructure-needs/
Challenges: climate change impacts – surface water flood risk Average direct damages to properties per year £300 million +40% Now 2050s, 2°C global temperature increase Source: Committee on Climate Change (2017) derived from Sayers and Partners (2016) and UKWIR (2015) https://www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-climate-change/preparing-for-climate-change/uk-climate-change-risk-assessment-2017/
Challenges: environmental needs 1 in 5 surface water bodies and 1 in 3 groundwater bodies under pressure due to abstraction Almost 1 in 10 rivers not in good ecological status due to land management, the water industry, and urban and transport pressures Half groundwater bodies will not be in good chemical status by 2021 Source: Environment Agency (2018) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/state-of-the-environment
Other challenges • Joined-up planning for water resources • Long-term planning for wastewater and drainage • Ageing drainage network • Fragmented responsibilities for surface water management • Lack of data on surface water networks “A lack of reliable data has meant that it has not been possible to consider surface or waste water in detail for this Assessment. Surface water flooding is significant and there has been little progress in the decade since the Pitt review. Further work is needed urgently.” National Infrastructure Commission, 2018 10
Recommendations • Increase resilience to drought , providing 4,000 Ml/day of additional capacity through: • Water companies halve leakage by 2050 • Government enable and encourage widespread smart metering by 2030 • Ofwat enable the delivery of supply infrastructure by 2030s maximising transfers • Ensure that communities are resilient to flooding 99.5% of the times by 2050 through: • Government set a long-term strategy and funding by 2019 • Water companies and local authorities deliver joint plans for managing surface water by 2022 • The Environment Agency update catchment plans by 2023 • MHCLG ensure new properties are resilient and don’t increase risk elsewhere
Next steps • On water resources, the government will respond formally but initial indications and reactions from the industry are broadly favourable • On flooding, we will look at companies to make tangible progress in managing surface water in close collaboration with local authorities • The government has yet to respond to our recommendations in full and will publish a National Infrastructure Strategy next year • The government has also tasked us to carry out studies on resilience and on the regulatory system • Further NIC work on the link between infrastructure and housing is underway
Thank you @NatInfraCom @Manuela_dimauro
Recommend
More recommend
