T HE SPI RI T OF INNOVAT ION DE F E NSE HOME L AND SE CURIT Y SUST AINME NT & SUPPORT ME DICAL INST RUME NT AT ION COMME RCIAL AVIAT ION 1
AGE NDA • Sta te o f Glo b a l Se c urity a nd T hre a ts • F uture T re nds a nd Re q uire me nts fo r De fe nse T e c hno lo g y • Outlo o k fo r De fe nse Spe nding a nd the Budg e t • T rump Administra tio n a nd De fe nse • K e y Na tio na l Se c urity Pro g ra ms E lb it Syste ms o f Ame ric a Pro prie ta ry Info rma tio n 2
ST AT E OF GL OBAL SE CURI T Y & T HRE AT S
GL OBAL SE CURIT Y: A F UL L SPE CT RUM OF T HRE AT S 4
SE VE RAL CONF L ICT ING MACRO F ACT ORS ARE IN PL AY… So urc e : RSAdviso rs 5
NAT IONAL SE CURIT Y ST RAT E GY – 4 +1 F RAME WORK… IN 5 DOMAINS Russia China Nor th Kor e a Ir an + Global Viole nt E xtr e mism L AND, SE A, AIR, SPACE , AND CYBE RSPACE 6
T HE AME RICAN WAY OF WAR IS CHANGING… . T he “Ame ric a n Wa y of Winning a Wa r” sinc e 1945 … 1 3 4 5 2 Proje c t Build a nd E sta blish Air, Re ly on L e ve ra g e US F orc e from L e ve ra g e Ma ritime T e c hnic a l Ge og ra phic Se c ure Allie d a nd C4ISR Ove rma tc h Isola tion Ove rse a s Coa litions Supre ma c y in Ke y Are a s Ba se s … is be ing sig nific a ntly de g ra de d by a dve rsa ry improve me nts in: • Co unte r lo w o b se rva b le c a pa b ilitie s • I SR a nd spa c e c a pa b ilitie s • Offe nsive c yb e r a nd a da ptive E W • Anti-Ac c e ss Are a De nia l (A2AD) • Glo b a l te rro r ne two rks & sle e pe r c e lls • Na vig a tio n wa rfa re / c o unte r GPS • Adva nc e d ta c tic a l b a llistic missile s • Adva nc e d SAM Ho w the U.S. c o unte r s the se de ve lo pme nts will have a majo r lo ng te r m impac t o n the addr e ssable mar ke t fo r supplie r s So urc e : RSAdviso rs 7
F UT URE T RE NDS AND RE QUI RE ME NT S F OR DE F E NSE T E CHNOL OGY
DoD PRIORIT IE S CHANGE D POST - 2011 □ Buying Po we r and Buying Hab its o f o ur c usto me r c ha ng e d □ U.S. milita ry prio ritie s c ha ng e d, pro c ure me nt re q uire me nts c ha ng e d □ Shift to Asia -Pa c ific stra te g y no t fully re a lize d. . .b a c k to E uro pe ? □ T e c hno lo g y a dva nc ing ra pidly – o ur a dve rsa rie s a re le ve ra g ing it, to o 9
DoD BUDGE T – SE QUE ST RAT ION RE L IE F □ Do D Budg e t F Y16 g ro ws fo r the first time sinc e 2010 □ Budg e ts > se q ue ste r, b ut < le ve ls ne e de d fo r ke y pro g ra ms □ Budg e ts fo r lo we r-prio rity pro g ra ms re ma in a t risk □ T rump Administra tio n sig na ling a n e nd to se q ue stra tio n 10
CHANGE + DISRUPT ION = OPPORT UNIT IE S T O E XPL OIT ≤ Susta ine d Slo w E c o no mic Ma ssive a nd Gro wing Gro wth Na tio na l De b t F ac to rs shaping the b usine ss c limate will Ra pid T e c hno lo g y Co mple x Se c urity influe nc e what/ho w the Gro wth & Spre a d E nviro nme nt USG b uys fro m supplie rs Cha ng ing US Wa rfig hting L a c k o f Po litic a l Do c trine Co nse nsus So urc e : RSAdviso rs a na lysis 11
2017- 2021: DoD RE QUIRE ME NT S ARE / WIL L BE DIF F E RE NT U.S. De fe nse Prio ritie s Co unte r Chine se , Russia n And I ra nia n A2AD Cha lle ng e Se c ure b a ttle ne two rks a nd C3I a g a inst c yb e r/ E MS T hre a t Mitig a te tyra nny o f dista nc e a nd time in strike , I SR, mo b ility De ve lo p disruptive CONOPS a nd Stra te g ie s fo r pre ssuring e ne my L e ve ra g e a na lytic s a nd pro c e ssing to e nha nc e inte llig e nc e fusio n Ac q uire impro ve d c a pa b ility mo re q uic kly a nd c he a ply 12
2017- 2021: DoD RE QUIRE ME NT S ARE / WIL L BE DIF F E RE NT US De fe nse Pr ior itie s Pr ior itie s for Sour c ing □ E xte nding life time s o f ma jo r pro g ra ms via Co unte r Chine se , Russia n And I ta lia n Aza d Cha lle ng e □ E te c h re fre sh a nd upg ra de s xte nding life time s o f ma jo r pro g ra ms via te c h re fre sh a nd upg ra de s □ I n-so urc ing R&D a nd a dva nc e d c o nc e pt □ I n-so urc ing R&D a nd a dva nc e d c o nc e pt de mo nstra tio n wo rk Se c ure b a ttle ne two rks a nd C3I a g a inst c yb e r/ E MS T hre a t de mo nstra tio n wo rk □ Mo re re lia nc e o n c o ntra c to r funde d e a rly de ve lo pme nt □ Mo re re lia nc e o n c o ntra c to r funde d e a rly de ve lo pme nt Mitig a te tyra nny o f dista nc e a nd time in strike , I SR, mo b ility □ I nc re a se d re lia nc e o n ne two rking & inte g ra tio n to de live r c a pa b ility □ I nc re a se d re lia nc e o n ne two rking & De ve lo p disruptive CONOPS & Stra te g ie s inte g ra tio n to de live r c a pa b ility □ Ope n syste ms a rc hite c ture s fo r pre ssuring e ne my □ Ope n syste ms a rc hite c ture s □ Co nve rg e nc e o f RF a nd c yb e r func tio na litie s, syste ms a nd CONOPS L e ve ra g e a na lytic s & pro c e ssing to □ Co nve rg e nc e o f RF a nd c yb e r func tio na litie s, e nha nc e inte llig e nc e fusio n □ I syste ms a nd CONOPS nc re a se d se c urity re q uire me nts (b o th te c hnic a l & re g ula to ry) □ I nc re a se d se c urity re q uire me nts (b o th Ac q uire impro ve d c a pa b ility mo re q uic kly a nd c he a ply te c hnic a l & re g ula to ry) • U.S. re spo nse is c e ntra l to suc c e e ding in six c ritic a l prio ritie s Will, in turn, drive inc re a se d funding in “fa st stre a m” se c to rs • 13 E lb it Syste ms o f Ame ric a Pro prie ta ry Info rma tio n 13 13
“F AST ST RE AM” SE CT ORS So urc e : RSAdviso rs T e c hnologic al Dr ive r s of F ast Str e ams: T hr e at Dr ive r s of F ast Str e ams: • Co nve rg e nc e a c ro ss E MS a nd c yb e r do ma in • Ne a r-Pe e r’ s g e o g ra phic e xpa nsio n • Cyb e r do ma in • Co mme rc ia l I T a nd ne two rking a dva nc e s • Hig h-e nd kine tic a nd no n-kine tic e ffe c ts Adva nc e d mic ro e le c tro nic s • T ra nsna tio na l te rro r ne two rks • Auto no my • • Ope ra tio ns in urb a n “me g a c e nte rs” • Disa g g re g a tio n • Spa c e c o ntro l • Bio lo g ic a l e nha nc e me nt a nd mo dific a tio n 14
F UT URE WAY OF WAR – C2 F USION 15
OUT L OOK F OR DE F E NSE SPE NDI NG & T HE BUDGE T
HIST ORICAL L OOK AT T HE DoD BUDGE T 17
OR… DoD BASE BUDGE T AUT HORIT Y AND WAR F UNDING (F Y78 – F Y21) Y17$ in Billions F T ODAY 18
T HE OVE RAL L OUT L OOK F OR A&D BUSINE SS IS POSIT IVE We e xpe c t inve stme nt funding DoD Budg e t Authority (Disc re tiona ry) (Pr oc + R&D) to e xc e e d F Y17 (F Y17$ in Billions) le ve ls onc e OCO funds ar e 700 alloc ate d and Congr e ssional $580 $583 $557 $565 $570 $585 plus- ups ar e made 0 600 0 0 0 PB18 Assumptions 58.79 58.63 71.99 71.25 • No Se que stra tion/ BCA 75.04 75.16 500 71.39 68.77 • DoD inc re a se pa rtia lly offse t by 124.17 118.61 re duc tions in dome stic spe nding 116.05 115.27 400 102.56 110.73 • E xc e pt DHS (“the Wa ll”) Note 300 146.72 143.41 140.1 137.88 135.26 $54B inc re a se a bove BCA c a ps for 135.32 F Y18 is just $18B a bove Pre side nt 200 Oba ma ’s pla ns for the sa me ye a r 233.55 229.32 224.86 219.03 100 Va ria ble s 205.86 197.46 • De bt c e iling inc re a se ? • SASC/ HASC to offe r la rg e r ba se 0 budg e t F Y16 F Y17 F Y18 F Y19 F Y20 F Y21 • $640B vs $603B O&M MIL PE RS Pr oc R&D MilCon & Othe r OCO • OCO to supple me nt ba se ? 19
T RUMP ADMINIST RAT ION AND AE ROSPACE & DE F E NSE SE CT OR DoD r e sour c e foc us for ne xt 6 months: c ounte r - ISIS and inc r e asing r e adine ss Administr ation position Implic ation for 2017- 2021 • F oc us on U.S. Jobs Str e ngthe n or ganic US- te c hnology/ manufac tur ing • Re - e xamination of global supply c hains (?) • “Ame r ic a F ir st” postur e Inc r e ase d diffic ulty ac c e ssing se nsitive data • Inc r e ase d c ybe r / data pr ote c tion r e quir e me nts • Ne e d str onge r solutions for F OCI mitigation • CF IUS mor e c halle nging (?) • E mphasis on ne w/ e xisting platfor ms and fle e ts L e gac y/ e xisting platfor m c apability upgr ade s • Ne w platfor m spir al/ inc r e me ntal upgr ade s Compatibility be twe e n le gac y/ 5 th Ge n platfor • ms • DoD AT L r e or ganization Inc r e ase d loc al c apabilitie s (e .g., r apid pr ototyping) Ac quisition agility/ fle xibility • Pr oximity of de sign to c ustome r 20
I MPROVI NG SE NT I ME NT I N DE F E NSE SPE NDI NG I S I NCRE ASI NG F ORE CAST E D PRODUCT I ON OF AT T RACT I VE AI RCRAF T PROGRAMS Ke y Na tio na l Se c urity A ERO SPA C E PRO G RA MS 21
Recommend
More recommend
