THE ROLE OF BEKP STRENGTH ON ITS MARKET SHARE
Paulo César Pavan
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T HE R OLE OF BEKP S TRENGTH ON ITS M ARKET S HARE Paulo Csar Pavan - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
T HE R OLE OF BEKP S TRENGTH ON ITS M ARKET S HARE Paulo Csar Pavan 1 CONCLUDING REMARKS Sharing with you our understanding: There is a slow but increasing demand for a higher BEKP strength, dependent on the paper grade. BEKP producers and
Paulo César Pavan
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* Estimate ** Others BHKP include Birch, NMHW, SMWHW-US and Indonesian
Total 18.3 Mton Total 40.5 Mton
Sources: Hawkins Wright, PPPC
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Source: PPPC
Tissue 37% Tissue 42% P&W 38% P&W 32% Specialty 20% Specialty 19% Other 5% Other 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2013
BEKP
Tissue 24% Tissue 25% P&W 50% P&W 42% Specialty 19% Specialty 19% Other 7% Other 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2013
OTHER BHKP
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Source: RISI
4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023
Tissue share in total paper
Volume Growth
1993-2003 2003-2013 2013-2023 4,1% 3,4% 3,7%
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Source: RISI
2007 2014
North America Western Europe Japan Oceania Latin America China Africa
24 15.5 14.5 10.5 5 3 1 24.1 15.6 14.9 10.5 6.2 4.8 0.6
2007 2014
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+6.5 MM ton
Source: RISI
2007 2014
North America Western Europe Japan Oceania Latin America China Africa
24 15.5 14.5 10.5 5 3 1 24.1 15.6 14.9 10.5 6.2 4.8 0.6
2007 2014
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+2.5 +7.7 +10.5 +20,7 MM ton
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Cumulative Production, FMT per Year (x1.000.000)
0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00 7,00 8,00 9,00
Cost, USD per FMT
200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 1.600
Overhead Materials Labor Energy Chemicals Pulps Raw Material Fiber
European Tissue Producers Furnish = 59 + 6%
* Pulp + Raw Material: Fiber
C
50 134 167 53 197 54 146 134 52 153 169 45 136 150 156 211 47 69 46 180 152 557 66 114 128 714 115 175 653 78 204 809 60 184 870Cumulative Production, FMT per Year (x1.000.000)
0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00 7,00 8,00
Cost, USD per FMT
200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 1.600
Overhead Materials Labor Energy Chemicals Pulps Raw Material Fiber
NA Tissue Producers Furnish = 58 + 12%
50 266 40 169 47 40 171 58 170 167 43 207 48 194 144 43 191 35 252 136 43 217 49 214 146 42 53 201 272 117 38 57 54 40 43 227 475 44Cumulative Production, FMT per Year (x1.000)
500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000
Cost, USD per FMT
200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200
Overhead Materials Labor Energy Chemicals Pulps Raw Material Fiber
LA Tissue Producers Furnish = 49 + 9%
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15 Years
Price GAP (USD/adt) NBSK-BEKP
50 70 90 110 130 150 2000 2005 2010 2015 50 70 90 110 130 150 2015 2020
4 Years 10 Years 5 Years Track Record
Source FOEX.FI
Forecast
Source RISI
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There is no single fiber which would provide the best solution for all the requirements: softness / smoothness / absorption / fluffiness / bulk / strength…
Source: Happy and lasting marriage, Timo Teras -Leading Advisor, Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting, Tissue World Magazine April/May 2009 Source: The eucalytptus fibre: A very special fibre. Noe, P. and Demuner, B.J.. Aracruz News, 7(3): 6-7, 1997 Eucalyptus: Today’s Preferred Short-Fiber Pulp. WOMP. Demuner, B.J. and Claudio-da-Silva, Jr. Ed. by David Hillman. Aplleton, WI. p89-93., 2005
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species … Planting for industrial purposes is carried out according to
economic and social development of the communities surrounding the plantations and mills ... about 60% are certified by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) and by Brazilian Forestry Certification Program (Cerflor), endorsed by the Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification Systems (PEFC).”
Source: IBÁ - http://www.iba.org/web/en/arvores-plantadas/
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1990s 2000s 2010s 2015s Production Capacity
ADtB/day
1150 2400 3920 5600
41 34
m³ /ADtB
18 15 10-15 Brightness Target
% ISO
91 92 92 92 Brightness Reversion
% ISO
< 2.0 1.6 1.6
Source: Paulo Aguiar - Fiber Business Line Metso Paper South America; and Fibria own data
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41 34
m³ /ADtB
18 15 10-15
Source: memoryofpaper.oeaw.ac.at/ 17
COMFORT ZONE Safe -Secure Stable Comfortable Easy Reliable
COMFORT ZONE Safety Volume Proc Stability Cost vs budget
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Source: CTP, Eucaref project, 2013 Source: Fibria proprietary databank
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Source: Fibria internal report from Innventia, 2013
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Tear strength related to fibre pull out as well as fiber fracture; initially mostly fiber pull out then more and more fiber fracture.
Source: Van den Akker, 1944; Fibria internal data.
500 x 500 x
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Source: Fibria internal report from Innventia, 2013
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Source: Demuner, B.; Fibria internal report, 2013
TEAR = f (FIBER LENGTH)
TEAR = f (FIBER LENGTH)3/2
TEAR = f (FIBER STRENGTH)2 (fiber strength measured by Zero-Span)
𝑿𝒒𝒃𝒒𝒇𝒔 ~ 𝑺𝑪𝑩 ∗ 𝒈𝒋𝒄𝒇𝒔 𝒎𝒇𝒐𝒉𝒖𝒊 ∗ (𝒕𝒒𝒇𝒅𝒋𝒈𝒋𝒅 𝒕𝒊𝒇𝒃𝒔 𝒄𝒑𝒐𝒆 𝒕𝒖𝒔𝒇𝒐𝒉𝒖𝒊)𝟑(𝒈𝒋𝒄𝒇𝒔 𝒙𝒋𝒆𝒖𝒊)𝟑 (𝑭 ∗ 𝒅𝒑𝒃𝒔𝒕𝒇𝒐𝒇𝒕𝒕 𝟑)
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Source: Demuner, B.; Fibria internal report, 2013
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FIBER LOAD BEARING ABILITY
Fiber shrinkage/curl
Length / coarseness / kink
Tensile/Shear strength
FURTHER PAPER/PAPERMAKING RELATED FACTORS
FIBER BONDING/COHESION
Fiber colapse / twist / flexibility Fibrillation Fines
Surface chemistry Polymer entanglement
FIBER (PRIMARY) FACTORS
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Source: Pavan, PC; 5th International Colloquium on Eucalyptus Pulp, 2001
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DRAINAGE TENSILE/TEAR Fiber Wood
Usual Behavior
Eu EucaStr Strong
Reference
Euca EucaSt Strong
Better strength/drainage relationship Refining Energy Machine Througput Additives – DSA Furnish Optimization BEKP increase
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37 www.facebook.com/f m/fibriabrasil www.twitter.com/f m/fibria_b _brasil ww www.youtube.com/ m/fibriacelulose www.linkedin.com/c m/comp mpany/f /fibria
pcpavan van@fibri ria.com.br m.br www.fibri ria.com. m.br