Sweeny Fracs 2, 3 and 4 construction OLD OCEAN, TX
Sweeny Fracs 2, 3 and 4 construction OLD OCEAN, TX Cautionary - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Sweeny Fracs 2, 3 and 4 construction OLD OCEAN, TX Cautionary - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Sweeny Fracs 2, 3 and 4 construction OLD OCEAN, TX Cautionary Statement This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities
Cautionary Statement
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. Words and phrases such as “is anticipated,” “is estimated,” “is expected,” “is planned,” “is scheduled,” “is targeted,” “believes,” “continues,” “intends,” “will,” “would,” “objectives,” “goals,” “projects,” “efforts,” “strategies” and similar expressions are used to identify such forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements relating to Phillips 66’s operations (including joint venture operations) are based on management’s expectations, estimates and projections about the company, its interests and the energy industry in general on the date this presentation was prepared. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements include fluctuations in NGL, crude oil, and natural gas prices, and petrochemical and refining margins; unexpected changes in costs for constructing, modifying or operating our facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing, refining or transporting our products; lack of, or disruptions in, adequate and reliable transportation for our NGL, crude oil, natural gas, and refined products; potential liability from litigation or for remedial actions, including removal and reclamation obligations under environmental regulations; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; the impact of adverse market conditions or other similar risks to those identified herein affecting PSXP, as well as the ability of PSXP to successfully execute its growth plans; and other economic, business, competitive and / or regulatory factors affecting Phillips 66’s businesses generally as set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Phillips 66 is under no obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events
- r otherwise.
This presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures at the end of the presentation materials or in the “Investors” section of our website.
Investor Day 2
Agenda
3
8:30 – 11:30 am
TOPIC SPEAKER Opening Remarks Greg Garland Market Update Jeff Dietert Midstream / PSXP Tim Roberts / Rosy Zuklic Chemicals Mark Lashier Refining Robert Herman Marketing & Specialties Brian Mandell BREAK Financial Update Kevin Mitchell Closing Remarks Greg Garland Q&A All
Investor Day
GREG GARLAND
CHAIRMAN & CHIEF EXECUTVE OFFICER
Opening Remarks
Investor Day 4
Sweeny Fracs 2, 3 and 4 construction OLD OCEAN, TX
Leadership Team
5
Greg Garland
Chairman & CEO
Jay Churchill
SVP, HSE & Projects
Jeff Dietert
VP, Investor Relations
Zhanna Golodryga
SVP, Chief Digital & Administrative Officer
Robert Herman
EVP, Refining
Paula Johnson
EVP, Legal & Gov. Affairs, Gen. Counsel, Corp. Secretary
Brian Mandell
EVP, Marketing & Commercial
Kevin Mitchell
EVP, Finance & CFO
Sonya Reed
SVP, HR & Corp. Communications
Tim Roberts
EVP, Midstream
Rosy Zuklic
VP & COO, PSXP
Mark Lashier
President & CEO, CPChem Investor Day
Executing the Strategy
GROWTH RETURNS DISTRIBUTIONS HIGH-PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Safe and reliable operations Technology-enabled risk reduction Pipelines to Gulf Coast Crude export capability NGL value chain CPChem ethylene and derivative capacity Refinery yield projects Clean product export capability Brand reimaging Secure, competitive and growing dividend Commitment to share repurchases
- Culture. Capability. Performance.
6
OPERATING EXCELLENCE
Investor Day
Delivering on our Commitments
7
See appendix for footnotes
GROWTH RETURNS DISTRIBUTIONS
Sweeny Hub Freeport LPG Export Terminal Beaumont Terminal Bakken Pipeline U.S. Gulf Coast Petrochemicals Project $25 B total distributions 25% dividend growth CAGR 32% reduction in initial shares outstanding Strong investment grade credit rating Gray Oak Pipeline Red Oak and Liberty pipelines Sweeny Fractionators 2, 3, 4 South Texas Gateway Terminal Bluewater Project USGC II / Ras Laffan Petrochemicals Billings Vacuum Tower Ponca City Diesel Recovery Wood River and Bayway FCC modernization 3,700 reimaged sites since 2015 West Coast Marketing joint venture Diesel and LSFO projects Renewable fuels Sweeny FCC modernization 6,200 total sites reimaged by 2021 Continued disciplined capital allocation Secure, competitive and growing dividend New $3 B share repurchase authorization Maintain strong investment grade
EXECUTED EXECUTING / DEVELOPING
Investor Day
Investments from 2012 to 2019
8
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
Investments from 2019 to 2022
9
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
Integrated Portfolio in 2022
10
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
Operating Excellence
11
Total Recordable Rates
INCIDENTS PER 200,000 HOURS WORKED 0.14 2 4 6 Agricul., Crop Prod. Food Manufact. All Manufact. Construction Prof. & Bus. Services Petchem. Manufact. Petroleum Refining Phillips 66
Industry Safety Metrics
INCIDENTS PER 200,000 HOURS WORKED
Phillips 66 CPChem DCP Midstream
15 16 17 18 19 Industry Average
Refining Crude Capacity Utilization
% 91% 96% 95% 95% 93% 91% 90% 91% 93% 90%
15 16 17 18 19 YTD
Phillips 66 U.S. Industry Average 15 16 17 18 19 15 16 17 18 19
See appendix for footnotes
.19 .28 .54 .15 .30 .66 .14 .14 .46 .14 .10 .23 .14 .14 .39 .41 .41 .86 .33 .33 1.03 .32 .37 .79 .30 .31 .83
Investor Day
Environmental, Social, Governance
12
100% of Board of Directors meetings include ESG topics $6+ B invested in safety, environmental and reliability from 2012 to 2018 40+ ESG metrics in 2019 sustainability report 50% lower total recordable rate vs. refining industry 25% decline in SOx, NOx and PM emissions since 2012 887 gross tonnes recycled from 2014 to 2018 650 MM gallons per year of potential renewable diesel projects
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
High-Performing Organization
13
14,500 employees live our values, every day 94% retention of all employees, 96% retention of high performers 21% women and 26% U.S. minority 44% employees participate in employee affiliation groups 43% of workforce are Millennial / Generation Z 1 million training hours for employees annually 100% of Board meetings include talent management discussion 427,000 hours volunteered by employees since 2012 VISION Providing Energy. Improving Lives. CORE VALUES
- Safety. Honor. Commitment.
HIGH-PERFORMING ORGANIZATION
- Culture. Capability. Performance.
Building capability, pursuing excellence and doing the right thing
Investor Day
Value Chain Ways of Working Asset Performance
AdvantEdge66
14
UNLOCKING VALUE THROUGH BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION
Total Enhancements
$1.2 B total enhancements by 2022 50% - 70% value captured as mid-cycle EBITDA uplift End to end value chain optimization Technology-enabled risk reduction Advanced analytics, Artificial Intelligence and machine learning driving predictive and prescriptive outcomes Robotic process automation Digitally connected enterprise
Agile, efficient and smart business resulting in margin improvement, cost savings and capital efficiency
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
9 11 Mid-Cycle 19 Midstream Refining M&S Mid-Cycle 22
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
$B
Mid-Cycle Adjusted EBITDA
15
$9 B mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA and $6.5 B mid-cycle CFO in 2019 $2 B incremental mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA over three years Midstream growth investments Refining and Marketing return projects AdvantEdge66 efficiencies and value chain optimization $11 B mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA and $8 B mid-cycle CFO by 2022
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
Disciplined Capital Allocation
16
$7 B mid-cycle CFO in 2020 Sustaining capital for asset integrity, safety and environmental projects Secure, competitive and growing dividend Growth investments with attractive returns Intrinsic value approach to share repurchases Returned 120% of initial Phillips 66 market cap since inception
2012 - 2018 Capital Allocation
%
Sources and Uses of Cash
$B
48% 52% Consolidated 7 6 ~1 1.6 - 1.7 1.5 - 2.5 1.5 - 2.5
Mid-Cycle CFO Sust. Capex FCF Dividends Growth Capex Share Repurch.
58% 42% Adjusted for JV Capital Reinvestment Distribution
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
Phillips 66 Headquarters HOUSTON, TX
JEFF DIETERT
VICE PRESIDENT, INVESTOR RELATIONS
Market Update
Investor Day 17
U.S. Production Growth
18
U.S. Oil Production
MMBD
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
History Forecast Range
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 History
20 40 60 80 100 120 Permian Eagle Ford DJ Basin Williston
Over $70 $50-$70 Sub $50 Forecasted Wells Drilled Through 2024
Wellhead Breakeven1 vs. Drilling Activity
000’S REMAINING HORIZONTAL DRILLING LOCATIONS
EIA Outlooks for U.S. Oil Production
MMBD
Source: Chief Economist Office; BTU Analytics; IEA; EIA; IHS Energy, 2019. The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS Markit. 1) Wellhead breakeven is for remaining horizontal drilling locations
Investor Day
U.S. Gulf Coast Petroleum Exports
19
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Forecast 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Forecast 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Forecast
Crude Oil
MMBD
Finished Petroleum Products1
MMBD
LPG
MMBD
Source: EIA; BTU Analytics; IHS Energy, 2019. The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS Markit. 1) Finished Petroleum Products include finished motor gasoline, distillate, jet, kerosene, residual fuel oil, special naphtha, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, and miscellaneous petroleum products
Investor Day
Natural Gas Liquids Value Chain
20
U.S. NGL Production1
MMBD
U.S. Gulf Coast LPG Exports
MMBD
Global LPG Demand by Region
MMBD
2 4 6 8 10 12 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
North America Europe & CIS Latin America Other Asia Middle East & Africa India China
Forecast
Forecast 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
U.S. Gulf Coast LPG Exports
Forecast 1 2 3 4 5 6 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Permian Eagle Ford Marcellus & Utica Powder River & DJ Others
Forecast
Forecast
Source: BTU Analytics; IHS Energy, 2019. The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS Markit. 1) U.S. NGL production, excluding Alaska, at current recovery
Investor Day
U.S. Ethane Fundamentals
21
U.S. Ethane Production1
MMBD
Natural Gas and Ethane Pricing
$ PER MMBTU
U.S. Ethane Demand
MMBD
Source: BTU Analytics; EIA; Morningstar; IHS Energy, 2019. The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS Markit. 1) U.S. Ethane production, excluding Alaska 2) Forward curve as of October 15, 2019.
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Henry Hub Natural Gas Mont Belvieu Ethane Forward Curve2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Technically Recoverable Ethane Recovered Ethane Forecast Rejection 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Petrochemical Demand Exports Forecast
Investor Day
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 North America China Other Asia Middle East & Africa Europe & CIS Latin America CAGR 4% CAGR 5%
Strong Demand for High Density Polyethylene
22
Petrochemical Projects 2018-2024
MILLION METRIC TONS ETHYLENE CAPACITY
U.S. HDPE Domestic Chain Margin
CENTS PER POUND
Global HDPE Production
MILLION METRIC TONS
Source: IHS Energy, 2019. The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS Markit. Map excludes CPChem USGC II (potential 2024). Project is under development and final investment decision has not been reached.
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 15 16 17 18 19 HDPE Margin Ethylene Margin 2009 - 2018 Average Forecast
Investor Day
13.24 17.85 23.05 (11.51) (23.88) (28.85) Historical Average 2020 Forward Curve Consultant Average ULSD 3.5% Fuel Oil
IMO Update
23
Northwest Europe Cracks1
$ PER BARREL
Medium Sour vs. Heavy Sweet Crude
$ PER BARREL VS. BRENT
(1.4) (5.1) (3.4) (2.9) (2.6) (2.8) 2.2 8.4 3.5 1.7 1.0 0.0
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Dubai, FOB - API 30.4, SUL 2.1 Cabinda, FOB - API 32.5, SUL 0.1
Sources: Morningstar; IHS Energy, 2019. The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS Markit. 1) Historical average 2009-2018. 2020 Forward curve as of October 15, 2019.
Forecast
Investor Day
Canadian Oil Production vs. Infrastructure
24
CAPP Production Forecast
MMBD
1 2 3 4 5 6 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Western Canada Oil Production Eastern Canada Oil Production Existing Pipeline Capacity Enbridge Line 3 Trans Mountain Expansion Keystone XL
Sources: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP)
Pipeline Capacity Forecast
Existing Pipeline Capacity Plus Line 3
Investor Day
Beaumont Terminal NEDERLAND, TX
TIM ROBERTS
EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, MIDSTREAM
Midstream
Investor Day 25
ROSY ZUKLIC
VICE PRESIDENT & CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER, PHILLIPS 66 PARTNERS
Midstream Assets in 2012
26 18,000
miles of U.S. pipeline systems
102,000
barrels per day fractionation capacity
10
crude oil terminals
39
product terminals
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
See appendix for footnotes * PSXP asset
Midstream Assets in 2022
27 6,000
miles of U.S. pipeline systems
550,000+
barrels per day fractionation capacity
15
crude oil terminals
1,800,000
barrels per day crude export capacity
4
LPG terminals
Growth since 2012
Investor Day
Building a Premier Midstream Business
28
Top-quartile safety performance Diversified portfolio integrated with Refining and Marketing Integrated crude system with optionality for producers, refiners and exporters Advantaged USGC storage and export solutions Full NGL value chain through DCP and CPChem Disciplined growth underpinned by long-term, fee-based, third-party contracts
Adjusted EBITDA
$B
Adjusted Capital Expenditures and Investments
$B
3.0 1.5 0.8 1.5 1.6 - 1.9 15 16 17 18 19E Sustaining Growth 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.9 2.2 15 16 17 18 LTM PSX & PSXP DCP
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
Crude Oil System in 2012
29
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
Crude Oil System in 2022
30
Operational
Bakken Pipeline Bayou Bridge Pipeline Beaumont Terminal Gray Oak Pipeline
Executing
Red Oak and Liberty pipelines Beaumont storage and dock expansion South Texas Gateway Terminal
Developing
ACE Pipeline Bluewater Project
See appendix for footnotes * PSXP asset
Investor Day
NGL System in 2012
31
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
NGL System in 2022
32
Operational
Sweeny Frac 1 LPG Export Terminal Clemens Caverns Sand and Southern Hills pipelines
Executing
Sweeny Fracs 2, 3 and 4 C2G Pipeline Clemens Caverns expansion
Developing
Sweeny Fracs 5 and 6 Freeport expansion
See appendix for footnotes * PSXP asset
Investor Day
AdvantEdge66
33
BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION Predictive analytics Automation and digital field operations Artificial Intelligence machine learning Data-driven operations Digital platforms
Pipeline Control Center BARTLESVILLE, OK Renton Terminal RENTON, WA
Investor Day
DCP Midstream
34
Logistics & Marketing and Gathering & Processing Diversified portfolio in premier basins Large scale U.S. NGL producer and gas processor Integrated NGL supply for Phillips 66 Sweeny Hub DCP 2.0 transformation
North 1.4 BCFD Mid-Continent 1.6 BCFD South 2.2 BCFD Permian 1.3 BCFD
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
Phillips 66 Partners
35
Total Return Since IPO
%
Supports Phillips 66 Midstream growth Premier MLP with competitive cost of capital Portfolio of highly integrated assets Stable and predictable cash flows Competitive and growing distribution Scale and financial strength
- 50%
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% Jul-13 Aug-14 Sep-15 Oct-16 Nov-17 Dec-18
PSXP +215% Alerian MLP Index (26%)
See appendix for footnotes
Oct-19
Investor Day
Phillips 66 Partners
36
1.66 2.08 2.53 3.09 3.40 15 16 17 18 LTM 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 15 16 17 18 LTM
2020 exit run-rate adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 B Maintain strong leverage and coverage ratios, with long-term targets of
Up to 3.5x Debt / EBITDA Greater than 1.2x coverage ratio
Investment grade credit rating
BBB (S&P) Baa3 (Moody’s)
$750 MM revolving credit facility
1.30x 1.28x 1.27x 1.38x Coverage 3.8x 3.8x 3.2x 2.8x Debt / EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA
$B
Distribution / Common LP Unit
$
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
FINANCIAL STRENGTH AND FLEXIBILITY
Phillips 66 Partners
37
Organic
Gray Oak Pipeline C2G Pipeline South Texas Gateway Terminal Clemens Caverns expansion Sweeny to Pasadena pipeline expansion
Continued sponsor support with backlog
- f available projects
Adjusted Capital Expenditures and Investments
$B
0.2 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.9 15 16 17 18 19E 20E
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
GROWTH
Polyethylene Units OLD OCEAN, TX
MARK LASHIER
PRESIDENT & CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, CHEVRON PHILLIPS CHEMICAL COMPANY
Chemicals
Investor Day 38
Feedstock Advantaged Chemicals Portfolio
39 #1 HDPE
producer worldwide
#2 NAO
producer worldwide
#2 Propylene
merchant producer
- n U.S.
Gulf Coast
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
Chemicals Value Chain
40 Upgrade low-cost ethane feedstock Produce in-demand products Serve growing global middle class World-scale manufacturing facilities and proprietary technology
70,000+ end-user products
Investor Day
Chevron Phillips Chemical Company
41
Industry-leading safety performance with focus on operating excellence Proprietary technology Advantaged feedstock portfolio Global marketing network Debottleneck opportunities
Polyethylene Global Operating Rates
%
94% 93% 91% 98% 100% 87% 88% 86% 87% 87% 15 16 17 18 19 YTD CPChem Industry Average
100% CPChem Adjusted EBITDA
$B
3.4 2.6 2.7 3.2 3.0 15 16 17 18 LTM
Source: IHS See appendix for additional footnotes
Investor Day
Capital Expenditures and Investments
$B
Phillips 66 Proportional Share of CPChem
42
See appendix for footnotes
1.3 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.4 15 16 17 18 19E Sustaining Growth
Adjusted EBITDA
$B
1.7 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 15 16 17 18 LTM
Investor Day
M.E. Ethane N.A. LPG N.A. Ethane
- W. Europe LPG
Asia LPG M.E. LPG
- W. Europe
Naphtha Asia Naphtha N.A. Naphtha M.E. Naphtha Asia Coal
20 40 50 100 150 200 Cumulative Production - Million Metric Tons
Macro Chemicals Outlook
43
Well-positioned in North America and Middle East Expanding global middle class is increasing demand Global footprint reduces impact of trade disputes with China
Source: IHS
2019E Ethylene Production Cost Curve
CENTS PER POUND
Polyethylene Global Demand
MILLION METRIC TONS
102 106 111 116 121 125 130 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 HDPE LDPE LLDPE
Investor Day
Sustainability
44
Enhancing efforts to eliminate plastic pellet spills by joining Operation Clean Sweep Blue Continue to combat plastic waste and improve perception of plastics Founding member of Alliance to End Plastic Waste
Investor Day
CPChem Growth Projects
45
U.S. Gulf Coast II
Jointly pursuing development with Qatar Petroleum CPChem 51% equity interest 2,000 kMTA ethylene cracker Two 1,000 kMTA polyethylene units FID no later than 2021 with startup in late 2024
Ras Laffan Petrochemicals Project
CPChem 30% equity interest 1,900 kMTA ethylene cracker Two PE units with 1,680 kMTA combined capacity FID in late 2021 with planned startup in 2025
U.S. Gulf Coast II signing ceremony WASHINGTON D.C.
Investor Day
Billings Refinery BILLINGS, MT
ROBERT HERMAN
EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, REFINING
Refining
Investor Day 46
Gulf Coast 764 MBD Atlantic Basin / Europe 537 MBD West Coast 364 MBD Central Corridor 515 MBD
Diversified Refining Portfolio
47
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
Enhancing Returns
48
Top-quartile HSE performance Strong cash generation Capital and cost discipline High-return capital projects Advantaged feedstocks
1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.0 15 16 17 18 19E Sustaining Return
Adjusted EBITDA
$B
Capital Expenditures and Investments
$B
4.8 1.4 2.7 5.7 4.7 15 16 17 18 LTM
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
Refining Portfolio Competitiveness
49
Peer Comparison
%
High distillate yield Largest purchaser of advantaged Canadian crude Industry-leading coking capacity Low yield of high-sulfur fuel oil Well-positioned for IMO 2020
Distillate Production / Throughput Canadian Imports / Crude Runs Coking Capacity / Crude Capacity
38 38 37 34 32
PSX
27 25 19 16 2
PSX
19 17 11 10 8
PSX
Peer comparison as of 2019. See appendix for footnotes.
Investor Day
North America Crude Feedstock Flexibility
50
Crude Feedstock Slate
% TOTAL CRUDE RUNS
35% 36% 37% 34% 35% 37% 40% 20% 19% 17% 17% 18% 18% 16% 23% 23% 24% 27% 24% 24% 27% 22% 22% 22% 22% 23% 21% 17%
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 YTD Other Foreign (non-Canadian) Canadian Other Domestic (non-sweet) Sweet Domestic
Investor Day
Maintain Cost Discipline
51
Top quartile non-energy operating cost Maintenance and personnel costs trending to top quartile in industry Cost efficiencies and improved productivity via AdvantEdge66
Artificial Intelligence machine learning Advanced analytics Digital optimization
U.S. Industry Benchmarking Performance
SOLOMON ASSOCIATES
Non-Energy Cash Opex Maintenance Index Personnel Cost Index PSX 2014 PSX 2016 PSX 2018 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Investor Day
AdvantEdge66
52
BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION End to end value chain optimization
Deploying digital technology to provide real-time information Leveraging advanced analytics to enable agile decision making Empowering our people to improve value generation Optimizing long-term value capture across the entire value chain
Lake Charles Refinery dock WESTLAKE, LA
Investor Day
Enhancing Returns
53
THROUGH CAPITAL INVESTMENTS 2019
Lake Charles isomerization unit Borger diesel recovery Wood River LSFO hydrotreater Bayway LSFO hydrotreater
2020
Sweeny FCC modernization Humber UCO renewable diesel Ponca City FCC yield improvement San Francisco renewable diesel
2021
Lake Charles coker feed flexibility Wood River distillate maximization
2023
Ferndale renewable diesel processing
High-return, quick payout projects Returns > 30% Annual return capex ~$500 million
Humber Refinery NORTH LINCOLNSHIRE, UK See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
Phillips 66 Branded Marketing Site CAMDEN COUNTY, MO
BRIAN MANDELL
EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, MARKETING & COMMERCIAL
Marketing & Specialties
Investor Day 54
Marketing & Specialties
55 2,200,000
barrels per day clean products sales volume
9,150
global outlets
13,000
barrels per day finished lubricants production Aviation brand
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
Enhancing Returns
56
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 15 16 17 18 19E
Adjusted EBITDA
$B
Capital Expenditures and Investments
$B
1.5 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.8 15 16 17 18 LTM
High-return, low-capital business Refining product placement Fuel brands reimaging Integration through equity partnerships Renewable diesel Integrated digital platform
Base capital Marketing joint venture
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
Secure Product Placement
57
United States
~3,700 sites reimaged since program inception ~5,600 sites implemented mobile pay Direct consumer engagement Expanding partnerships with private labels
Europe
Proven low-cost, high-volume model Reimaging and high-grading the JET brand Adding 20 - 30 new JET sites per year
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
West Coast Marketing Joint Venture
58
50 / 50 joint venture with large wholesale / retail operator Proven retail operational expertise Participate in retail fuel margins and store sales $250 - $325 MM capital investment $50 - $60 MM incremental adjusted EBITDA per year
Total Site Count 680 Total Volume 74 MBD
Site concentration
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
360 100 460 110 50 160 80 80 Current Capacity Additions 2024 Capacity Gulf Coast West Coast East Coast
Clean Product Export Capability
59
Expand clean products export capability Leverage optionality to maximize value Expand sales into new global markets Optimal global storage tank portfolio Additional access to 3rd party export capacity
550 700
U.S. Refinery Clean Product Export Capacity
MBD
150
Investor Day
IMO 2020
60
Strategically positioned for IMO 2020 transition Utilize global market presence to maximize returns Optimize refinery feedstock selection Capitalize on distillate production for bunker fuel blending
Phillips 66 IMO opportunities
Investor Day
Renewable Diesel
61
Portfolio approach for renewable diesel production
Humber UCO renewable diesel project San Francisco renewable diesel production Ferndale renewable diesel processing Offtake agreement with Ryze Renewables
Leverage Marketing position to capture full value chain margin
Investor Day
AdvantEdge66
62
BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION
Enhanced Mobile Pay platform Improved digital customer experience Enhance optimization tools Automate the back-office Develop Artificial Intelligence machine learning Optimized payment systems
Value Enablers Efficiency Go-to-Market
Investor Day
Phillips 66 Headquarters HOUSTON, TX
Investor Day 63
KEVIN MITCHELL
EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, FINANCE & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
Financial Update
Financial Strategy
64
Disciplined capital allocation Committed to a secure, competitive and growing dividend Intrinsic value approach to share repurchases Maintain financial flexibility, strong investment grade credit rating
Phillips 66 Headquarters HOUSTON, TX
Investor Day
23.9 23.7 27.4 27.2 27.1 8.9 10.1 10.1 11.2 11.9 27% 30% 27% 29% 31% 25% 26% 22% 25% 25%
Financial Strength
65
Debt Maturity Profile
$B
0.5 5.0
Equity and Debt
$B UNLESS NOTED Consolidated Debt-to-Capital PSX Equity PSX Debt PSX Noncontrolling Interest Attributable to PSXP PSXP Third-Party Debt PSX Debt-to-Capital, excluding PSXP
See appendix for footnotes
Flexibility to execute strategy through the cycle Investment grade credit ratings
PSX: A3 (Moody’s), BBB+ (S&P) PSXP: Baa3 (Moody’s), BBB (S&P)
Well-laddered debt maturities $8.0 B total liquidity as of September 2019
0.5 2.0 0.8 1.0 0.0 3.2 0.3 2.1 1.1 0.8
20 21 22 23 24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45+ PSX Senior Notes PSXP Senior Notes PSX Term Loan PSXP Revolving Credit Facility PSX Revolving Credit Facility
15 16 17 18 3Q19
Investor Day
9 11 Mid-Cycle 19 Midstream Refining M&S Mid-Cycle 22
EBITDA and Returns
66
Adjusted EBITDA
$B
Adjusted Return on Capital Employed
% AFTER-TAX
2022 Mid-Cycle Adjusted EBITDA
$B
Peer-leading ROCE Strong EBITDA generation EBITDA enhancement from capital investments and business transformation initiatives
Peer Avg
8.6 4.7 5.9 10.1 9.5 15 16 17 18 LTM
Adjusted ROCE LTM is based on 3Q 2018 through 2Q 2019 due to peer data availability. Adjusted ROCE is defined as (Adjusted NI + after-tax interest expense + minority interest) / (Average total debt + average equity). Source: Company filings adjusted to facilitate comparisons of operating performance. See appendix for additional footnotes.
14% 5% 8% 16% 16% 15 16 17 18 LTM
Investor Day
Free cash flow yield is defined as (Net cash provided by operating activities excluding working capital adjustments less capital expenditures and investments) / (June 30, 2019 market cap). Source: Bloomberg. Based on 3Q 2018 through 2Q 2019. See appendix for additional footnotes.
Cash Generation
67
Cash From Operations
$B
Free Cash Flow Yield
%
5.7 3.0 3.6 7.6 7.3 11.84 6.99 9.13 12.99 11.76 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 15 16 17 18 LTM
- 1.0
2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
Realized Crack $ per barrel
9.4% 6.3% 3.4% PSX S&P 100 Avg Peer Avg
Investor Day
Disciplined Capital Allocation
68
Peer Yield Comparison
%
Fund sustaining capital to maintain asset integrity Committed to a secure, competitive and growing dividend Investing in growth projects with attractive returns Intrinsic value approach to share repurchases Long-term: 60% reinvestment and 40% shareholder distributions Adjusted Capital Allocation
$B
8.4 5.2 4.8 8.7 6.4 15 16 17 18 LTM Reinvestment Distributions 4% 2% 4% 4% 4% 4% 8% 6% 8% PSX S&P 100 Avg Peer Avg Dividend Yield Share Repurchase/Share Yield
2020 Sources and Uses of Cash
$B
Peer yield comparison is based on share price as of June 30, 2019; dividend yield is annualized latest dividend; share repurchase / share yield is based on 3Q18 - 2Q19 spend. Source: Bloomberg. See appendix for additional footnotes.
7 6 ~1 1.6 - 1.7 2.0 - 2.5 1.5 - 2.5
2020 Mid-Cycle CFO Sust. Capex FCF Dividends Growth Capex Share Repurch.
Investor Day
4.3 2.8 1.8 2.6 3.3 - 3.6 3.0 - 3.5
15 16 17 18 19E 20E Sustaining Growth
Adjusted Capital Expenditures
69
Adjusted Capital Expenditures and Investments
$B
2019E Adjusted Capital Spending
See appendix for footnotes
Midstream PSXP Refining and Marketing Midstream PSX Midstream PSXP Sustaining Refining Marketing
Investor Day
Distributions
70
Annual Dividend
$ PER SHARE
2.18 2.45 2.73 3.10 3.50 15 16 17 18 19
Cumulative Distributions
$B
3.7 8.4 11.1 13.4 16.4 22.5 24.9 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 YTD Share Repurchases and Exchanges Dividends
Secure, competitive and growing dividend
12.5% increase in 2Q19 to $0.90 per share 25% CAGR with nine increases since May 2012
Committed to intrinsic value approach to share repurchases
Authorized additional $3 B program, total $15 B authorization Repurchased / exchanged 32% of shares initially
- utstanding
Source of shareholder value
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
Phillips 66 Partners
71
Competitive cost of capital Strong partnership fundamentals Robust growth profile High distribution coverage Solid financial position Midstream segment valuation transparency Additional source of capital Phillips 66 owns ~75% of LP common units
Reinvestment
Total Return Since IPO
%
- 50%
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19
Total Return Year-to-Date
% 0% 25% 50% Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19
IDR Elimination PSXP: +215% AMZ: (26%) PSXP: +42% AMZ: +5%
See appendix for footnotes
Oct-19 Oct-19
Investor Day
STRATEGIC FIT
Financial Flexibility
72
Lake Charles isomerization unit LAKE CHARLES, LA
Strong and growing cash flow generation from diverse and integrated portfolio Peer-leading balance sheet with additional capacity
Highest credit rating among peers Low debt to capital ratio Significant liquidity
PSXP is best performing sponsored MLP and supports Midstream growth Returned 120% of initial Phillips 66 market cap in cumulative distributions since inception
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
GREG GARLAND
CHAIRMAN & CHIEF EXECUTVE OFFICER
Closing
Investor Day 73
Sweeny Fracs 2, 3 and 4 construction OLD OCEAN, TX
Mid-Cycle Adjusted EBITDA
$B
Key Messages
74
Operating safely with technology-enabled cost efficiencies Growing Midstream and Chemicals Enhancing returns in Refining and Marketing & Specialties Secure, competitive and growing dividend with commitment to share repurchases Building capability, pursuing excellence and doing the right thing
See appendix for footnotes
9 11 Mid-Cycle 19 Midstream Refining M&S Mid-Cycle 22
Investor Day
Total Shareholder Return
%
Compelling Investment
75
Reinvestment
OPERATING EXCELLENCE GROWTH RETURNS DISTRIBUTIONS HIGH-PERFORMING ORGANIZATION
- 20%
20% 60% 100% 140% 180% 220% 260% 300% 340% May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 Peers +163% S&P 100 +148% PSX +328% Oct-19
See appendix for footnotes
Investor Day
Clifton Ridge Marine Terminal SULPHUR, LA
2019 Sensitivities
Sensitivities are independent and only valid within a limited price range
77
Investor Day
Annual EBITDA ($MM) Midstream - DCP (net to Phillips 66) 10 ¢/Gal Increase in NGL price 6 10 ¢/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price 1 $1/BBL Increase in WTI price 1 Chemicals - CPChem (net to Phillips 66) 1 ¢/Lb Increase in Chain Margin (Ethylene, Polyethylene, NAO) 65 Worldwide Refining $1/BBL Increase in Gasoline Margin 350 $1/BBL Increase in Distillate Margin 300 Impacts due to Actual Crude Feedstock Differing from Feedstock Assumed in Market Indicators: $1/BBL Widening WTI / WCS Differential (WTI less WCS) 100 $1/BBL Widening LLS / WTI Differential (LLS less WTI) 70 $1/BBL Widening LLS / Maya Differential (LLS less Maya) 60 $1/BBL Widening WTI / WTS Differential (WTI less WTS) 30 $1/BBL Widening ANS / WTI Differential (ANS less WTI) 25 10 ¢/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price (15)
Value Chain
78
Investor Day
Midstream Organic Growth
PSX PROJECT EXPECTED START-UP CAPACITY GROSS CAPITAL ($MM) OWNERSHIP (%) Beaumont Terminal expansion phase IV 1Q 2020 2.2 MMB 80 100 Beaumont Terminal Dock IV1 3Q 2020 200 MBD 70 100 Sweeny Fractionators 2 and 3 4Q 2020 2 x 150 MBD 1,300 1002 Sweeny Fractionator 4 2Q 2021 1 x 150 MBD 500 100 Liberty Pipeline 1H 2021 400 MBD3 1,600 50 Red Oak Pipeline 1H 2021 1,000 MBD3 2,500 50 PSXP PROJECT EXPECTED START-UP CAPACITY GROSS CAPITAL ($MM) OWNERSHIP (%) Bayou Bridge Pipeline Completed 2Q 2019 480 MBD 750 40 Lake Charles products pipeline Completed 2Q 2019 50 MBD 25 100 Lake Charles isomerization unit Completed 3Q 2019 25 MBD 200 99 Gray Oak Pipeline 4Q 20194 900 MBD 2,700 42.25 Sweeny to Pasadena products expansion5 2Q 2020 80 MBD 70 100 South Texas Gateway Terminal6 Mid 2020 8.5 MMB 625 25 Clemens Caverns expansion7 4Q 2020 7 MMB 150 100 C2G Pipeline Mid 2021 240 MBD 335 100
Projects expected to have typical Midstream EBITDA build multiples (6x - 8x) 79
1) Capacity expanding from 600 MBD to 800 MBD 2) DCP has an option to purchase 30% of Fracs 2 and 3; 3) Commercial operating capacity is likely to vary from the specified instantaneous design capacity, depending on the specific operating parameters for a given system (e.g., crude types, batching frequency and system complexity); 4) Initial service; 5) 300 MB storage and 80 MBD pipeline capacity expansion; 6) 8.5 MMB storage and up to 800 MBD export capacity, includes two deepwater VLCC docks; 7) Expanding from 9 MMB to 16 MMB.
Investor Day
PSXP Gray Oak, South Texas Gateway
Gray Oak Pipeline
Crude oil pipeline from Permian and Eagle Ford to Texas Gulf Coast Expected initial service 4Q 2019 900 MBD West Texas crude capacity 42.25% PSXP ownership
South Texas Gateway Terminal
Two deep water docks with up to 800 MBD throughput capacity Expected start up mid 2020 8.5 MMB storage capacity 25% PSXP ownership
Gray Oak Pipeline Conan Station commencing line fill LOVING COUNTY, TX
80
Investor Day
Liberty, Red Oak Crude Oil Pipeline Systems
Liberty Pipeline
From the Rockies and Bakken to Cushing, Oklahoma Initial service expected 1H 2021 24-inch pipeline 50% PSX ownership
Red Oak Pipeline
From West Texas and Cushing, Oklahoma, to the Texas Gulf Coast Initial service expected 1H 2021 Primarily 30-inch pipeline 50% PSX ownership 81
Investor Day
Sweeny Hub
Sweeny Hub Expansion
Adding 450 MBD fractionation capacity by 2Q 2021 Increasing Clemens Storage to 16 MMB by 4Q 2020 Secured y-grade feedstock supply agreements with firm volume commitments Reduces cost of supply for 200 MBD Freeport LPG Export Terminal Provides ethane supply for growing U.S. Gulf Coast petrochemical complex
Clemens to Gregory (C2G) Pipeline
New 16-inch ethane pipeline to Gregory, Texas near Corpus Christi Expected start up in mid 2021 Supplies Corpus Christi area petrochemical facilities
Fractionators 2 and 3 under construction SWEENY, TX
82
Combined, Fracs 1, 2, 3 and 4 will have 550 MBD total capacity. DCP has an option to purchase 30% of Fracs 2 and 3.
Investor Day
PSXP Ownership Structure
Operating Subsidiaries PSXP Public Common Unitholders
(NYSE: PSXP)
25% limited partner interest Joint Ventures Non-economic general partner interest and 75% limited partner interest
As of August 1, 2019. Public also owns 13.8 MM convertible preferred units.
83
Investor Day
Footnotes
General Information disclosed is as of December 31 unless noted otherwise. Numbers may not appear to tie due to rounding. AdvantEdge66 may be abbreviated as AE66. Chevron Phillips Chemical Company may be abbreviated as CPChem. Date Conventions 19 YTD is as of September 30, 2019, or the nine-month period ended September 30, 2019, as applicable; except as otherwise noted. 3Q19 is as of September 30, 2019; except as otherwise noted. LTM represents last twelve months actual data from 4Q 2018 through 3Q 2019, as applicable; except as otherwise noted. 19E represents 2019 current year estimate using most recent forecast. 20E represents forward looking estimate for that period. Forecasted and Estimated Adjusted EBITDA We are unable to present reconciliations of various forecasted and estimated adjusted EBITDA included in this presentation because certain elements of net income, including interest, depreciation and income taxes, are not reasonably available. Together, these items generally result in EBITDA being significantly greater than net income. Non-GAAP Reconciliations Regarding slides 15, 16, 28, 36, 41, 42, 48, 56, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 74, see following slides for accompanying non-GAAP reconciliations.
84
Investor Day
Footnotes
Maps Maps, images and drawings are for informational purposes only and may not be to scale. Slides 8, 9, 10, 26, 27, 29, 30, 31, 32, 34, 39, 47, 50, 55
85
Investor Day
Footnotes
Slide 7, 70 Total Distributions include 2014 PSPI share exchange and are through September 30, 2019. Dividend CAGR calculated from initial dividend of $0.20 per share in 3Q 2012 to last increase of $0.90 per share in 2Q 2019. Slide 11 Industry averages are from: Phillips 66 – American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) refining data, Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC (CPChem) – American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) chemicals data, DCP Midstream, LLC (DCP Midstream) – Gas Processors Association (GPA). 2019 TRR for Phillips 66, CPChem, and DCP Midstream through September 30, 2019. Industry safety metrics as of 2017. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. YTD Refining Crude Capacity Utilization through September 30, 2019. Industry refining crude capacity utilization through July 2019. Source: EIA. Slide 12 Sulfur oxides (SOx), nitrous oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM). Slide 14 The “Total Enhancements” amount represents estimated EBITDA uplift versus a baseline year of 2017. The “Mid-Cycle EBITDA Uplift” amount represents estimated actual mid-cycle EBITDA uplift after consideration for inflation and market movements in a mid-cycle environment.
86
Investor Day
Footnotes
Slides 15, 66, 74 2019 mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA calculated using the following methodology: average adjusted EBITDA from 2012 to 2018 for Refining, Marketing and Specialties, and Corporate; 2018 exit run-rate excluding market impacts plus completed 2019 growth projects for Midstream; average adjusted EBITDA from 2012 to 2018 plus 50% proportional share of estimated EBITDA from U.S. Gulf Coast I project for Chemicals. Refining growth EBITDA calculated using average 2016 to 2019 growth capital and assuming 30% returns. Marketing and Specialties growth EBITDA calculated using West Coast Marketing joint venture incremental EBITDA and average 2016 to 2019 growth capital and assuming 30% returns. Midstream growth EBITDA calculated using project timeline, capital expenditures, and build multiples set forth on slide 80 and previously disclosed projects. Mid-cycle 2020, 2021, and 2022 adjusted EBITDA calculated using 2019 mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA and growth EBITDA. 2019 and 2022 mid-cycle CFO calculated using mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA for the respective year and adjusted for estimated interest, taxes and noncontrolling interest for growth projects. These forecasted annual EBITDA contributions cannot be reconciled to net income, the nearest GAAP measure, because certain elements of net income, such as interest, depreciation and taxes, were not used in developing the forecasts and therefore are not readily available. Together, these items generally result in EBITDA being significantly greater than net income. Slide 16 Mid-cycle CFO calculated using mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA and adjusted for estimated interest, taxes and noncontrolling interest for growth projects. Total Distributions include 2014 PSPI share exchange and are through September 30, 2019. JV Capital includes Phillips 66 share of DCP Midstream’s, CPChem’s and WRB’s self-funded capital spending. $20.8 B initial market cap as of May 1, 2012 compared to $24.9 B cumulative distributions including exchanges through September 30, 2019. Slides 18-24 Statistics and forecasts as of October 15, 2019, except as otherwise noted.
87
Investor Day
Footnotes
Slide 26 As of December 31, 2012. Slide 27 Statistics include assets owned by PSXP. 15 crude oil terminals includes rail racks. Forward-looking fractionation capacity and crude exports are based on 100%
- wnership.
Slide 28 2015 capital expenditures exclude $1.5 B investment in DCP Midstream. 2019E adjusted capital expenditures and investments exclude $0.4 B of growth capital cash funded by certain of our Gray Oak joint venture partners. Slide 29 As of December 31, 2012. Slide 34 Map BCFD represents billion cubic feet per day processing capacity. Slide 35, 71 Chart reflects total unitholder return July 22, 2013 to October 25, 2019. Distributions assumed to be reinvested in units. PSXP compared against Alerian MLP Index (AMZ). Source: Bloomberg Slide 36 Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow shown are attributable to PSXP. Slide 37 2019E and 2020E adjusted capital expenditures and investments exclude $0.4 B and $0.1 B, respectively, of growth capital expected to be cash funded by certain
- f our Gray Oak joint venture partners.
88
Investor Day
Footnotes
Slide 39 High density polyethylene (HDPE), Normal alpha olefins (NAO). Metrics shown net of JV capacity and sourced from IHS, Nexant, and company filings. Slide 42 Represents Phillips 66’s proportional share of CPChem’s adjusted EBITDA, as well as self-funded capital expenditures and investments. Slide 47 Capacities as of January 1, 2019. Slide 49 Comparison is to independent refining peer group: HFC, MPC, PBF, VLO. Distillate Production / Throughput: Distillate % calculated using distillate yield and total throughput for 1H 2019. Source: company disclosures. Canadian Imports / Crude Runs: Canadian Imports % using Canadian Imports through May 2019 and crude runs for 1H 2019. Source: E.I.A., company
- disclosures. MPC PF reflects pro forma capacity and production with Andeavor acquisition, including Western Refining.
Coking Capacity / Crude Capacity: Coking capacity % calculated using coking capacity and total crude capacity. Phillips 66 coking capacity includes 50% WRB, 18.75% MiRO. Source: 2019 Oil & Gas Journal. Slide 53 PSXP owns 99 percent of the Lake Charles isomerization unit. Slide 55 Site count and volumes as of December 31, 2018. Slide 57 Sites reimaged and implementing mobile pay as of September 30, 2019.
89
Investor Day
Footnotes
Slide 58 EBITDA estimate based on Phillips 66 proportional share of West Coast Marketing joint venture. Slide 65 Total debt includes capital leases and is net of issuance premiums and discounts. Slides 66, 67, 68 Peer average includes Delek US Holdings, Inc., HollyFrontier Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, PBF Energy Inc., Valero Energy Corporation, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., ONEOK, Inc., Targa Resources Corp., Celanese Corporation, Eastman Chemical Company, Huntsman Corporation and Westlake Chemical Corporation. Slide 67 Realized crack is Phillips 66 worldwide realized crack. Slide 68 2015 capital expenditures include $1.5 B investment in DCP Midstream. 2020 mid-cycle CFO calculated using 2020 mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA and adjusted for estimated interest, taxes and noncontrolling interest for growth projects. Slide 69 2015 capital expenditures exclude $1.5 B investment in DCP Midstream. 2019E and 2020E adjusted capital expenditures and investments exclude $0.4 B and $0.1 - $0.5 B, respectively, of growth capital expected to be cash funded by joint venture partners.
90
Investor Day
Footnotes
Slide 72 $20.8 B initial market cap as of May 1, 2012 compared to $24.9 B cumulative distributions including exchanges through September 30, 2019. Slide 75 Chart reflects total shareholder return May 1, 2012 to October 25, 2019. Dividends assumed to be reinvested in stock. Source: Bloomberg. Peer average includes Delek US Holdings, Inc., HollyFrontier Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, PBF Energy Inc., Valero Energy Corporation, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., ONEOK, Inc., Targa Resources Corp., Celanese Corporation, Eastman Chemical Company, Huntsman Corporation, LyondellBasell Industries, and Westlake Chemical Corporation.
91
Investor Day
SLIDES 15, 66, 74
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
92
Investor Day
Millions of Dollars 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q19 LTM Reconciliation of Phillips 66 Net Income to Adjusted EBITDA Phillips 66 net income $ 4,131 3,743 4,797 4,280 1,644 5,248 5,873 4,883 Less: Income from discontinued operations 48 61 706 — — — — — Plus: Income tax expense (benefit) 2,473 1,844 1,654 1,764 547 (1,693) 1,572 1,147 Net interest expense 231 258 246 283 321 407 459 416 Depreciation and amortization 906 947 995 1,078 1,168 1,318 1,356 1,338 Phillips 66 EBITDA 7,693 6,731 6,986 7,405 3,680 5,280 9,260 7,784 Special Item Adjustments (pre-tax): Impairments by equity affiliates — — 88 390 95 64 28 75 Premium on early retirement of debt 144 — — — — — — — Pending claims and settlements 56 (25) (21) 30 (115) (57) 21 (21) Repositioning costs 85 — — — — — — — Tax law impacts — (28) — — — — — — Certain tax impacts — — — — (32) (23) (119) (4) Gain on consolidation of business — — — — — (423) — — Gain on asset sales (189) (40) — — — — — — Exit of a business line — 54 — — — — — — Equity affiliate ownership restructuring — — — — 33 — — — Recognition of deferred logistics commitments — — — — 30 — — — Railcar lease residual value deficiencies and related costs — — — — 40 — — — Asset dispositions — — (270) (280) — — — (17) Impairments 1,197 — 131 — — — — 853 Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments — — 45 53 — — — 42 Pension settlement expense — — — 80 — 83 67 18 Hurricane-related costs 56 — — — — 210 — — U.S. tax reform — — — — — — (16) — Phillips 66 EBITDA, Adjusted for Special Items 9,042 6,692 6,959 7,678 3,731 5,134 9,241 8,730 Other Adjustments (pre-tax): Proportional share of selected equity affiliates income taxes 84 93 117 86 79 70 102 88 Proportional share of selected equity affiliates net interest 38 80 161 189 178 123 167 171 Proportional share of selected equity affiliates depreciation and amortization 641 689 721 752 798 777 912 937 EBITDA attributable to Phillips 66 noncontrolling interests (13) (24) (45) (73) (132) (229) (361) (391) Phillips 66 Adjusted EBITDA $ 9,792 7,530 7,913 8,632 4,654 5,875 10,061 9,535
SLIDES 15, 28, 66, 74
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
Investor Day
Millions of Dollars 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q19 LTM Reconciliation of Midstream Pre-Tax Income to Adjusted EBITDA Midstream pre-tax income $ 88 750 851 147 402 638 1,181 658 Plus: Interest revenue — — — — — (1) — — Depreciation and amortization 83 88 91 127 215 299 320 304 Midstream EBITDA 171 838 942 274 617 936 1,501 962 Special Item Adjustments (pre-tax): Pending claims and settlements (37) — — — (45) (37) 21 — Impairments 523 — — — — — — 853 Impairments by equity affiliates — — — 366 6 — 28 75 Hurricane-related costs 2 — — — — 10 — — Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments — — 2 — — — — — Asset disposition — — — (30) — — — — Equity affiliate ownership restructuring — — — — 33 — — — Pension settlement expense — — — 9 — 12 9 2 Midstream EBITDA, Adjusted for Special Items 659 838 944 619 611 921 1,559 1,892 Other Adjustments (pre-tax): Proportional share of selected equity affiliates income taxes — 4 3 (2) 2 1 1 1 Proportional share of selected equity affiliates net interest 132 156 165 176 170 121 131 128 Proportional share of selected equity affiliates depreciation and amortization 181 194 207 225 244 191 207 221 Midstream Adjusted EBITDA $ 972 1,192 1,319 1,018 1,027 1,234 1,898 2,242
93
SLIDES 15, 42, 66, 74
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
94
Investor Day
Millions of Dollars 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q19 LTM Reconciliation of Chemicals Pre-Tax Income to Adjusted EBITDA Chemicals pre-tax income $ 1,189 1,361 1,632 1,315 839 716 1,025 881 Plus: None — — — — — — — — Chemicals EBITDA 1,189 1,361 1,632 1,315 839 716 1,025 881 Special Item Adjustments (pre-tax): Impairments by equity affiliates — — 88 24 89 64 — — Impairments 43 — — — — — — — Premium on early retirement of debt 144 — — — — — — — Hurricane-related costs — — — — — 175 — — Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments — — 3 — — — — 42 Chemicals EBITDA, Adjusted for Special Items 1,376 1,361 1,723 1,339 928 955 1,025 923 Other Adjustments (pre-tax): Proportional share of selected equity affiliates income taxes 79 93 111 91 77 68 100 86 Proportional share of selected equity affiliates net interest 13 10 9 7 8 4 38 42 Proportional share of selected equity affiliates depreciation and amortization 213 246 258 264 285 307 422 427 Chemicals Adjusted EBITDA $ 1,681 1,710 2,101 1,701 1,298 1,334 1,585 1,478
SLIDES 15, 48, 66, 74
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
95
Investor Day
Millions of Dollars 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q19 YTD 3Q19 LTM Reconciliation of Refining Pre-Tax Income to Adjusted EBITDA Refining pre-tax income $ 5,089 2,782 2,467 3,659 436 2,076 4,535 1,641 3,642 Plus: Depreciation and amortization 655 685 704 738 769 821 840 641 852 Refining EBITDA 5,744 3,467 3,171 4,397 1,205 2,897 5,375 2,282 4,494 Special Item Adjustments (pre-tax): Pending claims and settlements 31 — 23 30 (70) (51) — (21) (21) Tax law impacts — (22) — — — — — — — Certain tax impacts — — — — (32) (23) (6) — (4) Hurricane-related costs 54 — — — — 24 — — — Gain on consolidation of business — — — — — (423) — — — Recognition of deferred logistics commitments — — — — 30 — — — — Railcar lease residual value deficiencies and related costs — — — — 40 — — — — Asset dispositions — — (145) (8) — — — (17) (17) Gain on asset sales (185) — — — — — — — — Impairments 606 — 131 — — — — — — Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments — — 40 53 — — — — — Pension settlement expense — — — 53 — 53 43 — 11 Refining EBITDA, Adjusted for Special Items 6,250 3,445 3,220 4,525 1,173 2,477 5,412 2,244 4,463 Other Adjustments (pre-tax): Proportional share of selected equity affiliates income taxes 5 (4) 3 (3) — 1 1 1 1 Proportional share of selected equity affiliates net interest (118) (95) (19) — — (3) (6) (3) (4) Proportional share of selected equity affiliates depreciation and amortization 236 237 245 252 257 268 272 210 278 Refining Adjusted EBITDA $ 6,373 3,583 3,449 4,774 1,430 2,743 5,679 2,452 4,738
SLIDES 15, 56, 66, 74
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
96
Investor Day
Millions of Dollars 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q19 LTM Reconciliation of Marketing & Specialties Pre-Tax Income to Adjusted EBITDA Marketing and Specialties pre-tax income $ 863 1,327 1,475 1,652 1,261 1,020 1,557 1,645 Plus: Interest revenue — — — (2) — — — — Depreciation and amortization 147 103 95 97 107 112 114 105 Marketing & Specialties EBITDA 1,010 1,430 1,570 1,747 1,368 1,132 1,671 1,750 Special Item Adjustments (pre-tax): Asset dispositions — — (125) (242) — — — — Gain on asset sales (4) (40) — — — — — — Pending claims and settlements 62 (25) (44) — — — — — Exit of a business line — 54 — — — — — — Tax law impacts — (6) — — — — — — Certain tax impacts — — — — — — (113) — Hurricane-related costs — — — — — 1 — — Pension settlement expense — — — 11 — 11 9 3 Marketing & Specialties EBITDA, Adjusted for Special Items 1,068 1,413 1,401 1,516 1,368 1,144 1,567 1,753 Other Adjustments (pre-tax): Proportional share of selected equity affiliates income taxes — — — — — — — — Proportional share of selected equity affiliates net interest 11 9 6 6 — 1 4 5 Proportional share of selected equity affiliates depreciation and amortization 11 12 11 11 12 11 11 11 Marketing & Specialties Adjusted EBITDA $ 1,090 1,434 1,418 1,533 1,380 1,156 1,582 1,769
SLIDES 15, 66, 74
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
97
Investor Day
Millions of Dollars 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Reconciliation of Corporate & Other Pre-Tax Loss to Adjusted EBITDA Corporate and Other pre-tax loss $ (673) (694) (680) (729) (747) (895) (853) Plus: Net interest expense 231 258 246 285 321 408 459 Depreciation and amortization 21 71 105 116 77 86 82 Corporate & Other EBITDA (421) (365) (329) (328) (349) (401) (312) Special Item Adjustments (pre-tax): Impairments 25 — — — — — — Repositioning costs 85 — — — — — — Pending claims and settlements — — — — — 31 — U.S. tax reform — — — — — — (16) Pension settlement expense — — — 7 — 7 6 Corporate & Other EBITDA, Adjusted for Special Items (311) (365) (329) (321) (349) (363) (322) Other Adjustments (pre-tax): None — — — — — — — Corporate & Other Adjusted EBITDA $ (311) (365) (329) (321) (349) (363) (322)
SLIDES 16, 28, 48, 56, 68, 69
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
Investor Day
Millions of Dollars Capital Expenditures and Investments 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q19 LTM Midstream Growth $ 548 429 2,021 2,801 1,267 597 1,360 1,645 Sustaining 159 168 152 1,656 186 174 188 227 Total 707 597 2,173 4,457 1,453 771 1,548 1,872 Refining Growth 85 164 255 201 344 323 267 372 Sustaining 650 656 783 868 805 530 559 574 Total 735 820 1,038 1,069 1,149 853 826 946 Marketing & Specialties Growth 47 139 375 66 47 62 71 65 Sustaining 72 87 64 56 51 46 54 71 Total 119 226 439 122 98 108 125 136 Corporate & Other Growth — 11 13 10 3 — 6 7 Sustaining 140 125 110 106 141 100 134 206 Total 140 136 123 116 144 100 140 213 Total Consolidated Growth 680 743 2,664 3,078 1,661 982 1,704 2,089 Sustaining 1,021 1,036 1,109 2,686 1,183 850 935 1,078 Adjusted Capital Spending 1,701 1,779 3,773 5,764 2,844 1,832 2,639 3,167 Capital Spending Funded By Gray Oak Joint Venture Partners — — — — — — — 422 Total 1,701 1,779 3,773 5,764 2,844 1,832 2,639 3,589
98
SLIDES 16, 42
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
Investor Day 99
Millions of Dollars Proportional Share of Select Equity Affiliates Capital Expenditures and Investments* 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 DCP Midstream (Midstream) $ 1,324 971 776 438 99 268 484 CPChem (Chemicals) Growth 239 403 726 1,136 743 571 131 Sustaining 132 210 160 183 244 205 208 Total 371 613 886 1,319 987 776 339 WRB (Refining) 136 109 140 175 164 126 156 Select Equity Affiliates $ 1,831 1,693 1,802 1,932 1,250 1,170 979
*Represents Phillips 66's portion of self-funded capital spending by DCP Midstream, LLC (DCP Midstream), Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC (CPChem) and WRB Refining LP (WRB).
SLIDE 28
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
Investor Day
Millions of Dollars 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q19 LTM Reconciliation of DCP Midstream Pre-Tax Income (Loss) to Adjusted EBITDA DCP Midstream pre-tax income (loss) $ (463) (34) 76 106 (794) Plus: None — — — — — DCP Midstream EBITDA (463) (34) 76 106 (794) Special Item Adjustments (pre-tax): Pending claims and settlements — (45) — — — Impairments — — — — 853 Impairments by equity affiliates 366 6 — 28 75 Equity affiliate ownership restructuring — 33 — — — Asset disposition (30) — — — — DCP Midstream EBITDA, Adjusted for Special Items (127) (40) 76 134 134 Other Adjustments (pre-tax): Proportional share of selected equity affiliates income taxes (2) 2 — — — Proportional share of selected equity affiliates net interest 133 129 65 62 69 Proportional share of selected equity affiliates depreciation and amortization 166 183 107 111 121 DCP Midstream Adjusted EBITDA $ 170 274 248 307 324
100
101
SLIDE 36
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
Investor Day
Phillips 66 Partners Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow to Net Income Millions of Dollars 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q19 LTM Reconciliation to Net Income Attributable to Phillips 66 Partners Net income attributable to Phillips 66 Partners $ 194 301 461 796 889 Plus: Net income attributable to Predecessors 112 107 63 — — Net Income 306 408 524 796 889 Plus: Depreciation 61 96 116 117 118 Net interest expense 34 52 99 114 106 Income tax expense — 2 4 4 5 EBITDA 401 558 743 1,031 1,118 Proportional share of equity affiliates’ net interest, taxes and depreciation and amortization 31 45 66 101 113 Expenses indemnified or prefunded by Phillips 66 2 6 8 1 1 Transaction costs associated with acquisitions 2 4 4 4 — EBITDA attributable to Predecessors (151) (142) (67) — — Adjusted EBITDA 285 471 754 1,137 1,232 Plus: Deferred revenue impacts*† 4 11 6 (6) (5) Less: Equity affiliate distributions less than proportional EBITDA 19 28 29 64 45 Maintenance capital expenditures† 8 22 50 62 65 Net interest expense 34 52 100 114 106 Preferred unit distributions — — 9 37 37 Income taxes paid — — — — 1 Distributable cash flow $ 228 380 572 854 973
*Difference between cash receipts and revenue recognition.
†Excludes Merey Sweeny capital reimbursements and turnaround impacts.102
SLIDE 36
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
Investor Day
Phillips 66 Partners Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow to Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities Millions of Dollars 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q19 LTM Reconciliation to Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities $ 392 492 724 892 997 Plus: Net interest expense 34 52 99 114 106 Income tax expense — 2 4 4 5 Changes in working capital (12) 28 (30) (20) 28 Undistributed equity earnings — (1) 1 5 (7) Deferred revenues and other liabilities (11) (9) (43) 42 (8) Other (2) (6) (12) (6) (3) EBITDA 401 558 743 1,031 1,118 Proportional share of equity affiliates’ net interest, taxes and depreciation and amortization 31 45 66 101 113 Expenses indemnified or prefunded by Phillips 66 2 6 8 1 1 Transaction costs associated with acquisitions 2 4 4 4 — EBITDA attributable to Predecessors (151) (142) (67) — — Adjusted EBITDA 285 471 754 1,137 1,232 Plus: Deferred revenue impacts*† 4 11 6 (6) (5) Less: Equity affiliate distributions less than proportional EBITDA 19 28 29 64 45 Maintenance capital expenditures† 8 22 50 62 65 Net interest expense 34 52 100 114 106 Preferred unit distributions — — 9 37 37 Income taxes paid — — — — 1 Distributable cash flow $ 228 380 572 854 973
*Difference between cash receipts and revenue recognition.
†Excludes Merey Sweeny capital reimbursements and turnaround impacts.SLIDE 41
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
103
Investor Day
Millions of Dollars 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q19 LTM Reconciliation of CPChem Net Income to Adjusted EBITDA CPChem net income $ 2,651 1,687 1,446 2,069 1,767 Plus: Income tax expense (benefit) 74 66 58 68 72 Net interest expense (income) (2) (1) (8) 51 73 Depreciation and amortization 306 316 351 595 592 CPChem EBITDA 3,029 2,068 1,847 2,783 2,504 Special Item Adjustments (pre-tax): Impairments by equity affiliates 48 178 128 — — Hurricane-related costs — — 350 — — Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments — — — — 84 CPChem EBITDA, Adjusted for Special Items 3,077 2,246 2,325 2,783 2,588 Other Adjustments (pre-tax): Proportional share of selected equity affiliates income taxes 108 88 78 132 100 Proportional share of selected equity affiliates net interest 16 17 16 25 11 Proportional share of selected equity affiliates depreciation and amortization 222 254 263 249 262 CPChem Adjusted EBITDA $ 3,423 2,605 2,682 3,189 2,961
SLIDE 65
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
104
Investor Day
Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated Debt-to-Capital Ratio Total Debt Total Equity Debt-to-Capital Ratio September 30, 2019 Phillips 66 Consolidated $ 11,925 27,092 31% PSXP* 3,815 2,201 Phillips 66 Excluding PSXP $ 8,110 24,891 25% December 31, 2018 Phillips 66 Consolidated $ 11,160 27,153 29% PSXP* 3,048 2,469 Phillips 66 Excluding PSXP $ 8,112 24,684 25% December 31, 2017 Phillips 66 Consolidated $ 10,110 27,428 27% PSXP* 2,945 2,314 Phillips 66 Excluding PSXP $ 7,165 25,114 22% December 31, 2016 Phillips 66 Consolidated $ 10,138 23,725 30% PSXP* 2,411 1,306 Phillips 66 Excluding PSXP $ 7,727 22,419 26% December 31, 2015 Phillips 66 Consolidated $ 8,887 23,938 27% PSXP* 1,091 809 Phillips 66 Excluding PSXP $ 7,796 23,129 25%
*PSXP’s third-party debt and Phillips 66’s noncontrolling interests attributable to PSXP.
SLIDE 66
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
105
Investor Day
Millions of Dollars 2015 2016 2017 2018 2Q19 LTM Phillips 66 ROCE Numerator Net income $ 4,280 1,644 5,248 5,873 5,658 After-tax interest expense 201 220 285 398 379 GAAP ROCE earnings 4,481 1,864 5,533 6,271 6,037 Special items (34) (57) (2,837) (51) (78) Adjusted ROCE earnings $ 4,447 1,807 2,696 6,220 5,959 Denominator GAAP average capital employed* $ 31,749 33,344 35,700 37,925 37,536
*Total equity plus debt.
GAAP ROCE (percent) 14% 6% 15% 17% 16% Adjusted ROCE (percent) 14% 5% 8% 16% 16%
SLIDE 67
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
106
Investor Day
1) Adjusted total processed inputs include our proportional share of processed inputs of an equity affiliate. 2) Income before income taxes divided by total processed inputs. 3) Realized refining margins per barrel, as presented, are calculated using the underlying realized refining margin amounts, in dollars, divided by adjusted total processed inputs, in barrels. As such, recalculated per barrel amounts using the rounded margins and barrels presented may differ from the presented per barrel amounts due to rounding.
Millions of Dollars (Except as Indicated) 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q19 LTM Realized Refining Margins Income before income taxes $ 3,659 435 2,076 4,535 3,642 Plus: Taxes other than income taxes 259 253 263 287 267 Depreciation, amortization and impairments 741 770 838 841 852 Selling, general and administrative expenses 221 195 198 204 144 Operating expenses 3,644 3,495 3,634 3,790 3,887 Equity in earnings of affiliates (325) (164) (322) (796) (625) Other segment (income) expense, net 35 (16) (413) (30) (18) Proportional share of refining gross margins contributed by equity affiliates 1,057 756 1,019 1,652 1,417 Special items: Pending claims and settlements — (70) — — (21) Certain tax impacts — (32) (23) (5) (4) Railcar lease residual value deficiencies and related costs — 40 — — — Recognition of deferred logistics commitments — 30 — — — Realized refining margins $ 9,291 5,692 7,270 10,478 9,541 Total processed inputs (thousands of barrels) 703,982 728,639 711,254 721,338 725,561 Adjusted total processed inputs (thousands of barrels)1 784,941 814,113 795,931 806,600 811,328 Income before income taxes (dollars per barrel)2 $ 5.20 0.60 2.92 6.29 5.02 Realized refining margins (dollars per barrel)3 $ 11.84 6.99 9.13 12.99 11.76
FOR REFERENCE
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
107
Investor Day
Millions of Dollars 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q19 YTD Marketing & Specialties Pre-Tax ROCE Numerator Pre-tax income $ 1,652 1,261 1,020 1,557 1,056 Pre-tax interest expense — — — — — GAAP ROCE pre-tax income 1,652 1,261 1,020 1,557 1,056 Pre-tax special items (231) — 12 (104) — Adjusted ROCE pre-tax income $ 1,421 1,261 1,032 1,453 1,056 Denominator GAAP average capital employed* $ 3,068 3,110 3,568 3,757 3,950
*Total equity plus debt.
Annualized GAAP Pre-Tax ROCE (percent) 54% 41% 29% 41% 36% Annualized Adjusted Pre-Tax ROCE (percent) 46% 41% 29% 39% 36% Millions of Dollars 3Q19 Reconciliation of Midstream Pre-Tax Loss to Adjusted Pre-Tax Income Midstream pre-tax loss $ (460) Pre-tax adjustments: Impairments 853 Impairments by equity affiliates 47 Midstream adjusted pre-tax income $ 440