SUSTAINABLE ENERGY Global Tracking Framework 2015 Coordinators: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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SUSTAINABLE ENERGY Global Tracking Framework 2015 Coordinators: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 11, 2023 45 likes •557 views

PROGRESS TOWARD SUSTAINABLE ENERGY Global Tracking Framework 2015 Coordinators: Partners: Despite some acceleration, Africa still not moving fast enough to end energy poverty by 2030 Pace of electrification doubled in recent years, but

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PROGRESS TOWARD

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

Global Tracking Framework 2015

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Coordinators: Partners:

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Despite some acceleration, Africa still not moving fast enough to end energy poverty by 2030

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20% 0% 40% % % 100% 80% % 60%

21%

Pace of electrification doubled in recent years, but needs to double again to meet SDG7

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Pace of electrification doubled in recent years, but needs to more than double again to meet SDG7

39%

% % 100% 80% % 60% 20% 0% 40%

21%

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Minimal progress on access to non-solid fuels, and moving even more slowly than in the past

11%

% % 100% 80% % 60% 20% 0% 40%

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7%

% % 100% 80% % 60% 20% 0% 40%

11%

Minimal progress on access to non-solid fuels, and moving even more slowly than in the past

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SSA Efficiency: 46%

% % 100% 80% % 60% 20% 0% 40%

46%

Africa’s progress on energy efficiency is about half of what the global target envisages

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Africa’s progress on energy efficiency is about half of what the global target envisages

46%

% % 100% 80% % 60% 20% 0% 40%

51%

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Recent acceleration of modern renewables, consistent with a doubling of the share by 2030

% % 100% 80% % 60% 20% 0% 40%

40%

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Recent acceleration of modern renewables, consistent with a doubling of the share by 2030

% % 100% 80% % 60% 20% 0% 40%

100% 40%

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% % 100% 80% % 60% 20% 0% 40%

Africa’s overall progress: a mixed report card

39% 7% 51% 100%

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Many African countries are gearing-up on electrification, but challenging to stay ahead of population growth

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Notable long term acceleration in electrification rates, and stagnation in progress on non-solid fuels

Access to electricity, 1990-2012

Access to non-solid fuels, 1990-2012

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22.9 26.1 31.8 35.4 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 Percent Access to electricity (% of total population) 13.5 17.0 18.1 18.2 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 Percent Access to Non-Solid Fuel (% of total population)

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Absolute number of people without access constant for electricity (at 590m), growing for non-solid fuels (to 747m)

Electricity access deficit (millions of people) Non-solid fuel access deficit (millions of people)

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590 590 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2012 Million people 708 747 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2012 Million people

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Average annual increase in electrified population 2010-2012 Average annual population increase 2010-2012

24 million 24 million 5 million

Average annual increase in population with access to non-solid fuels 2010-2012

For the first time, African pace of electrification just kept up with population growth; not so for non-solid fuels

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Average annual increase in electrified population 2010-2012 Average annual population increase 2010-2012 Average annual increase in population with access to non-solid fuels 2010-2012

In South Asia, pace of electrification already almost four times faster than population expansion

38 million 11 million 11 million

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Average annual increase in electrified population 2010-2012 Average annual population increase 2010-2012

24 million 24 million 5 million

Average annual increase in population with access to non-solid fuels 2010-2012

To stay ahead of population and meet SDG7 target 60- 70 million Africans will need to gain access each year

62 million 29 million 71 million

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Four times as many people gained energy access in urban than rural areas over 2010-2012

Share of energy access in

rural

areas Share of energy access in

urban

areas

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Most African countries making steady progress on electrification

Electrification rate increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Electrification rate increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Electrification rate did not increase between 2010-2012

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Electrification

Electrification rate increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Electrification rate increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Electrification rate did not increase between 2010-2012

Most African countries making steady progress on electrification

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Electrification

Electrification rate increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Electrification rate increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Electrification rate did not increase between 2010-2012

Most African countries making steady progress on electrification

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Progress on access to non-solid fuels lackluster across the board

Rate of access to non-solid fuels did not increase between 2010-2012 Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012

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Progress on access to non-solid fuels lackluster across the board

Rate of access to non-solid fuels did not increase between 2010-2012 Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012

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Progress on access to non-solid fuels lackluster across the board

Rate of access to non-solid fuels did not increase between 2010-2012 Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012

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Despite strong efforts only a handful of countries are accelerating energy access faster than population

Access to electricity net growth rate, 2010-2012 Access to non-solid fuels net growth rate, 2010-2012

  • 6.3%
  • 4.9%
  • 4.7%
  • 4.6%
  • 4.0%
  • 3.7%
  • 3.6%
  • 3.5%
  • 3.4%
  • 3.0%
  • 3.0%
  • 2.9%
  • 2.6%
  • 2.5%
  • 1.0%
  • 0.6%
  • 0.2%

0.1% 0.3% 1.7% Guinea Ethiopia Chad Niger Uganda Cameroon Rwanda Madagascar Mozambique Tanzania Malawi Kenya Zambia Nigeria Ghana Angola Cote d'Ivoire Burkina Faso Congo, DR Mali

  • 6.5%
  • 3.3%
  • 2.5%
  • 2.4%
  • 2.4%
  • 2.3%
  • 2.3%
  • 1.9%
  • 1.8%
  • 1.7%
  • 1.5%
  • 1.1%
  • 0.5%
  • 0.1%

0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 1.0% 2.2% 5.9% Burundi Chad Madagascar Kenya Tanzania Malawi South Sudan Ethiopia Niger Uganda Angola Zambia Mozambique Cameroon Burkina Faso Rwanda Congo, DR Ghana Nigeria Mali

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Among top 20 electricity access deficit countries, show slow expansion in countries with lowest electrification

Electricity access rate in 2012 (top) and access rate percentage point change, 2010-2012 (bottom)

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64 56 54 37 33 27 26 23 22 20 18 18 16 15 15 14 13 10 7 6 Access rate 2012 (percent) 3.6 7.6 4.7 2.4 3.6 3.6 9.0 0.0 3.6 5.2 3.6 7.2 1.2 1.1 0.5 5.1 0.0 1.1 1.2 2.9 Access rate change 2010- 2012 (percentage points)

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Among top 20 non-solid fuel access deficit countries, fastest expansion among those with highest access

Non-solid fuel access rate in 2012 (top) and access rate percentage point change, 2010-2012 (bottom)

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44 28 25 22 19 17 17 16 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 Access rate in 2012 (percent) 3.8 3.3

  • 0.4

0.2 0.1 0.6 1.3

  • 0.8

0.2 0.3

  • 0.1
  • 0.2

0.2 0.1 0.1

  • 0.1
  • 0.1
  • 0.6

0.0 0.0 Access rate percentage point change, 2010-2012

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Kinshasa pilot shows multi-tier framework gives a much more nuanced picture of energy access

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Conventional measures of energy access fail to capture many important dimensions of service quality

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Electricity Source Capacity Duration Duration Source Source 24 Hours (hours) Evening (hours) Reliability Quality Affordability Legality Duration of interruptions (mins) Low Voltage problems Index: Index:

GRID 87% NO ACCESS 10% SHS 2% OTHER 1% GRID 87% NO ACCESS 10% SHS 2% OTHER 1% <4h 23% 4h-8h 39% 8h-16h 23% 16h- 22h 9% >22h 6% <1h 9% 1h-2h 18% 2h-4h 32% >4h 41% >30 mins 46% 10-30 mins 11% <10 mins 5% None 38% Low Voltage 85% Good voltage 15% Not Afforda ble 2% Afforda ble 98% Not Legal 2% Legal 98%

Less than 8 hours per day for 62% of the household Unscheduled interruptions are longer than 30 minutes for more than 57% of the household Almost 85% of the household experienced low voltage

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African economies are surprisingly energy intensive, some progress driven mainly by transport and by South Africa

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Africa shows high levels of energy intensity, compared to most other regions

Energy intensity by region, 2012

33 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.6 5.8 7.3 7.9 8.5 10.8 2 4 6 8 10 12 EUR NAF LAC SEA WAS SAS OSN NAR EAS SSA EEU CCA MJ/USD 2011 PPP

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Africa most energy intensive continent after Eastern Europe and CIS, but making meaningful improvements

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Primary Energy intensity reduction 2010-2012

8.1 MJ/$ 7.9 MJ/$

Energy savings 2010-2012

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Africa’s energy intensity is decreasing at -1.4% per year, driven entirely by improvements in transport and industry

Energy intensity, 1990-2012

CAGR of energy intensity, 2010-2012

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 5 10 15 20 25 1 6 11 16 21 GJ/household MJ/2011 USD PPP Transport Industrial Agricultural Services Residential Primary

  • 4.1
  • 1.4
  • 1.3

0.3 2.7 8.3 Transport Primary Industrial Residential Agricultural Services

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One third of countries making rapid progress on efficiency

Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity did not improve between 2010- 2012 Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity improved by less than 2.6% per annum in 2010-2012 Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity improved by at least 2.6% per annum in 2010-2012

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Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity did not improve between 2010- 2012 Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity improved by less than 2.6% per annum in 2010-2012 Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity improved by at least 2.6% per annum in 2010-2012

One third of countries making rapid progress on efficiency

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Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity did not improve between 2010- 2012 Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity improved by less than 2.6% per annum in 2010-2012 Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity improved by at least 2.6% per annum in 2010-2012

One third of countries making rapid progress on efficiency

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Among 20 top energy consumers, 8 exceeded SE4ALL energy intensity change target of -2.6% per year

Top 20 energy users primary energy intensity in 2012 (top) and energy intensity CAGR 2010-2012 (bottom)

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4.0 4.6 5.3 5.8 6.3 6.4 7.0 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.3 9.7 9.7 11.9 12.1 17.0 17.5 17.9 19.1 54.7 10 20 30 40 50 60 AGO GHA CMR SEN NGA MDG BFA ZMB UGA KEN ZAF BEN CIV GIN TZA ETH ZWE MOZ ZAR SOM

Energy Intensity in 2012 (MJ/USD 2011 PPP)

  • 1.9
  • 6.5
  • 4.0
  • 0.2

1.0 0.8

  • 2.4
  • 2.2
  • 2.8
  • 2.5
  • 3.9
  • 0.9

9.6

  • 1.8
  • 1.9
  • 4.3
  • 5.5
  • 4.3
  • 4.9
  • 0.5
  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 12 AGO GHA CMR SEN NGA MDG BFA ZMB UGA KEN ZAF BEN CIV GIN TZA ETH ZWE MOZ ZAR SOM

CAGR of Energy Intensity, 2010-2012 (percent)

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Africa is the world’s most renewable continent, thanks mainly to biomass and hydro, in midst of structural shift from traditional to modern sources

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Africa’s energy consumption is 70% renewables, and 9% modern renewables comparing favorably with Asia

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5.8 15.2 23.1 9.4 7.9 8.8 9.0

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 EAS EUR LAC NAR SAS SEA SSA Percent of TFEC Solid biofuels, trad. Solid biofuels, mod. Hydro Biogas Waste Solar Wind Geothermal Liquid biofuels Modern RE share

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Traditional biomass consumption decreased 0.46 EJ 2010- 2012, equivalent to Angola’s annual energy consumption

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Traditional RE share decrease 2010-2012

62.8% 61.9%

Annual traditional RE consumption decrease, 2010-2012

0.46 EJ

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Modern renewable energy consumption increased 0.19 EJ 2010-2012, more than Benin’s annual consumption

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Modern RE share increase 2010-2012

8.3% 9.0%

Annual modern RE consumption increase, 2010-2012

0.19 EJ

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Modern renewable energy, mainly hydro-power, provide 20% of Africa’s electricity

Renewable capacity change (left) and renewables share of capacity (right), 1990-2012

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  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

  • 0.5

0.5 1 1.5 2 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Percent GW Geothermal Solar Biomass, Waste Wind Hydro RE share of installed capacity RE share of installed capacity excluding hydro

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Few countries rapidly increasing modern renewable share

Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption improved by less than 1 percentage point 2010-2012 Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption improved by at least 1 percentage point 2010-2012 Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption did not improve between 2010-2012

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Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption improved by less than 1 percentage point 2010-2012 Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption improved by at least 1 percentage point 2010-2012 Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption did not improve between 2010-2012

Few countries rapidly increasing modern renewable share

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Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption improved by less than 1 percentage point 2010-2012 Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption improved by at least 1 percentage point 2010-2012 Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption did not improve between 2010-2012

Few countries rapidly increasing modern renewable share

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Among top 20 energy consumers, 8 expanded their renewable energy share between 2010-2012

Top 20 energy consumers modern renewable energy share in 2012 (top) and modern renewable energy share annual percentage point change, 2010-2012

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32.9 28.4 22.4 21.7 21.7 19.8 16.4 11.8 9.6 9.4 9.1 8.5 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.2 2.1 1.9 1.2 1.1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Modern RE share of TFEC, 2012 (percent)

  • 1.4
  • 0.5

0.0 1.3

  • 0.5

0.0

  • 0.8
  • 0.1
  • 0.3

0.9 0.1

  • 0.1

0.0

  • 0.1

0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1

  • 0.1
  • 0.2
  • 2
  • 1

1 2

Modern RE share annual increment, 2010-2012 (percentage point change)

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Annual investment needs range from $49-85 billion

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Electricity access

Providing at minimum universal Tier I/III/V electricity access to Sub-Saharan Africa’s population Source: results from AIM model

Energy efficiency

Significantly reducing energy intensity in Africa Source: WEO 450

Renewable energy

Doubling Africa’s share of RE in TFEC Source: IRENA REmap

Annual investment needs very much depend on the level of ambition for energy access

1

$Billion/year

36

8 37

3 1 Tier 5

12

4 2

20 7

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For more information on the report, please go to: trackingenergy4all.worldbank.org #endenergypoverty