Sustainability at its Worst: Crime and Chronic Illegal Behavior - - PDF document

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Sustainability at its Worst: Crime and Chronic Illegal Behavior - - PDF document

Nov 20, 2022 192 likes •333 views

5/1/14 Sustainability at its Worst: Crime and Chronic Illegal Behavior Settings By Joel M. Caplan, PhD www.joelcaplan.com School of Criminal Justice Center for Law & Justice 123 Washington Street Newark, NJ 07102 www.rutgerscps.org

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School of Criminal Justice Center for Law & Justice 123 Washington Street Newark, NJ 07102 www.rutgerscps.org

Sustainability at its Worst: Crime and Chronic Illegal Behavior Settings

By Joel M. Caplan, PhD

www.joelcaplan.com School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org

  • Sustainability of criminogenic environments

– I.e. “hotspots”

  • Sustainability of methods for analyzing crime and crime

patterns.

– I.e., “hotspot mapping”

Both affect strategies for allocations of resources.

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Kernel Density Value

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It happened here before. Go here again.

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  • Analytical techniques

shouldn’t be “hooked” on inputs which are outcomes intended to be prevented.

School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org

“A ¡mapless ¡map…describes ¡how ¡one ¡variable ¡is ¡ distributed ¡in ¡space…. ¡To ¡determine ¡‘why’ ¡it ¡is ¡distributed ¡ the ¡way ¡it ¡is, ¡the ¡spa=al ¡distribu=on ¡of ¡at ¡least ¡one ¡other ¡ variable ¡needs ¡to ¡be ¡considered.” ¡(Rengert ¡& ¡Lockwood, ¡2010; ¡p. ¡109)

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  • Hotspots ¡tell ¡where ¡to ¡go, ¡but ¡not ¡what ¡to ¡do ¡when ¡you ¡get ¡there. ¡ ¡
  • Q: ¡What ¡aQracts ¡illegal ¡behavior ¡at ¡this ¡high-­‑crime ¡area ¡
  • Q: ¡Why ¡does ¡crime ¡cluster ¡there ¡over ¡=me? ¡

School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org

Kid Cluster

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Kid Cluster Crime Cluster

School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org

  • Spatial analysis technique developed by Joel M. Caplan and

Leslie W. Kennedy at Rutgers University.

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Produce Map Test Inputs Weight Valid Factors Output Final Model

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School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org

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School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org

  • 1. Elastic net penalized regression (assuming Poisson

distribution)

– Uses cross-validation

  • 2. Bidirectional stepwise regression

– Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) scores – Does it twice: Assumes both a Poisson and Negative Binomial distribution

  • 3. “Best” model with lowest BIC score is selected
  • 4. Relative Risk Value

– Rescaling factor coefficients between the min and max values – Interpreted as weights of risk factors

See the User Manual at www.rutgerscps.org/software for details

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School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org

Vacant Property à à Community Garden

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Project Partners:

Risk-Based Interventions

School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org

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Chicago Newark Kansas City

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Factor: Attractor/Generator of Crime SO: Optimal Spatial Operationalization SI: Optimal Spatial Influence RR: Relative Risk Value

School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org

  • Sustainable environments for crime exist.
  • Characteristics of these environments may differ for different

crime types and different jurisdictions.

  • What does this mean for research?
  • What does this mean for practice?
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School of Criminal Justice | Rutgers Center on Public Security | www.rutgerscps.org School of Criminal Justice Center for Law & Justice 123 Washington Street Newark, NJ 07102 www.rutgerscps.org

Sustainability at its Worst: Crime and Chronic Illegal Behavior Settings

By Joel M. Caplan, PhD

www.joelcaplan.com