SPENDING PATTERNS AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF MEXICAN NATIONALS ON EL - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Presented by: Steve Nivin, Ph.D.

Please contact Steve Nivin with any questions or comments at steve.nivin@gmail.com or 210-517-3609.

SPENDING PATTERNS AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF MEXICAN NATIONALS ON EL PASO: A COMPARISON TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS, 2010-2012

Presented on: April 22, 2015 Presented to: ICSC West Texas Idea Exchange

Data & Methodology

¨ Core data: Visa card spending by month ¨ Time period: 2010-2012 ¨ Spending by category based on survey results

reported in other studies

¤ Does not capture real estate purchases or business

investments

¨ Economic impacts calculated using IMPLAN input-

• utput model

¨ 20-county region

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20-County Region

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Spending in the region is substantial and growing

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$0 $50,000,000 $100,000,000 $150,000,000 $200,000,000 $250,000,000 $300,000,000 $350,000,000 $400,000,000 $450,000,000 $500,000,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Total Spending by Mexican Nationals Across 20-County Area

2010 2011 2012

Total Spending 2011: $2.4B 2012: $2.7B

Counties along border with MX, Bexar, and Central TX see largest amount of activity

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$0 $100,000,000 $200,000,000 $300,000,000 $400,000,000 $500,000,000 $600,000,000 $700,000,000 $800,000,000 $900,000,000 $1,000,000,000 Aransas Atascosa Bandera Bexar Cameron Comal ElPaso Guadalupe Hidalgo Kendall Maverick Medina Nueces SanPatricio ValVerde Webb Wilson Hays Travis Williamson Annual Spending County

Total Annual Spending by Mexican Nationals by County

(January data not available in 2010)

2010 2011 2012

County Total Spending (2012) Hidalgo $863,089,738 El Paso $445,991,683 Webb $392,629,269 Bexar $373,995,021 Cameron $232,317,331 Hays $157,625,455 Travis $66,977,248

Mexican nationals spending increased across most counties from 2011-2012

6 30.0% 44.5% 44.3% 16.6% 11.3% 21.3% 5.0% 16.5% 17.5% 11.2% 1.5%

• 6.2%
• 3.8%

17.2%

• 1.1%

6.3%

• 9.7%

29.2% 30.8% 6.0% 12.9%

• 20.0%
• 10.0%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% % Change in Annual Spending from 2011-2012 County

Growth of Spending by Mexican Nationals: 2011-2012

Big increases in spending during months with major holidays

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• 60%
• 40%
• 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month-to-Month Percentage Change in Mexican Nationals Spending Across 20-County Area

2010 2011 2012

Spending growth around holidays has been increasing

8 31.19% 26.96% 82.25% 35.03% 45.23% 62.70% 84.24% 38.86% 66.12% 92.53% 87.70% 34.49% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Apr Jul Nov Dec

Month-to-Month Percentage Change in Mexican Nationals Spending Across 20-County Area for Select Months

2010 2011 2012

Big increases in spending during months with major holidays in El Paso, too

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• 60%
• 40%
• 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month-to Month Percentage Change in Mexican Nationals Spending in El Paso

2010 2011 2012

Similar holiday spending pattern in El Paso

10 12.74% 24.33% 75.56% 38.50% 20.56% 27.19% 64.60% 42.47% 34.23% 48.22% 63.14% 53.03%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Apr Jul Nov Dec

Month-to-Month Percentage Change in Mexican Nationals Spending in El Paso for Select Months

2010 2011 2012

Spending boosts around major holidays persist across counties

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Fluctuations in peso could be one reason for increases in spending

10.5000 11.0000 11.5000 12.0000 12.5000 13.0000 13.5000 14.0000 14.5000

• 10.00%

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% MX Pesos Per U.S. $

% Change in Spending from Same Period Previous Year

Change in Mexican National Spending Relative to Peso/$ Exchange Rate

Growth in Spending from Same Period Previous Year MX Pesos to One US$ Source for exchange rate data: Federal Reserve System

Largest proportion of spending is on clothing

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$446 million in total spending by Mexican Nationals in El Paso in 2012

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Spending translates into substantial impacts

• n the local and state economies annually

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Economic Impacts Resulting from Mexican Nationals Spending: 2012 (2013 $) Employment Income Output El Paso County 4,768 $128,920,928 $399,760,138 San Antonio MSA 4,343 $144,762,606 $394,540,989 Border Area 22,190 $592,954,096 $1,821,790,562 Central Texas 2,550 $85,717,997 $229,434,724 Entire Region 29,456 $925,884,587 $2,632,930,021

A large source of revenue to local and State government coffers

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Fiscal Impacts Resulting from Mexican Nationals Spending in 2012 (2013 $) Indirect Business Taxes Household Taxes El Paso County $17,956,893 $763,138 San Antonio MSA $15,858,227 $969,455 Border Area $81,910,822 $3,686,438 Central Texas $9,388,815 $561,632 Entire Region $108,315,954 $6,009,050

NOTE: Includes revenues to local governments and the State government but does not include sales taxes.

Summary

¨ Impacts are large especially in those communities

bordering Mexico, San Antonio, and the Central Texas area

¤ Even larger when consider spending on real estate and

business investments

¨ Big boosts in spending around major holidays ¨ Provides substantial support to a variety of industries ¨ Lends stability to local economies

¤ Strengthens ties between two economies and helps drive

international trade

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Thank you!!!

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