SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES: 1 ARE THEY SHOWSTOPPERS? Richard - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
space exploration challenges
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES: 1 ARE THEY SHOWSTOPPERS? Richard - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 03, 2022 436 likes •626 views

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES: 1 ARE THEY SHOWSTOPPERS? Richard Heidmann Association Plante Mars heidmann.r@orange.fr www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012 (doc. ESA) SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES 2

slide-1
SLIDE 1

ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES:

ARE THEY SHOWSTOPPERS?

Richard Heidmann Association Planète Mars heidmann.r@orange.fr www.planete-mars.com

(doc. ESA)

1

slide-2
SLIDE 2

www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES

Showstoppers: topics perceived as unmanageable in the frame of a realistic program More often:

  • problems are overstated
  • possible solutions are poorly surveyed

Most prominently raised ones:

  • weightlessness
  • ionizing radiations
  • psychological issues
  • descent in Martian atmosphere
  • safety
  • costs

considering those topics more positively is necessary to assess properly the project realism 2

slide-3
SLIDE 3

www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES

WEIGTHLESSNESS A space medical research pet subject

  • still going on after half a century
  • a way to make use of the ISS

Strangely, the real question has been overlooked:

  • what are the effects of partial gravity?
  • ignoring the actual goals of exploration…

This could be investigated with:

  • a centrifuged tethered habitat in LEO
  • or even, a small centrifuge with mice, in the

ISS (European Mars Society chapters proposal)

Bed rest test (doc. CNES) The Translife project (doc. MIT) 3

slide-4
SLIDE 4

www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES

Even for the most demanding Mars mission:

  • the 0g legs duration is limited to 6 months
  • which is the ISS nominal duration
  • where adequate countermeasures apply

But is it reasonable to land under less than optimal condition? This could be avoided with:

  • a centrifuged tethered habitat
  • with the transfer stage as counterweight

WEIGTHLESSNESS

An ESA sponsored study (doc. Delta-Utec) 4

(doc. Manchu)

slide-5
SLIDE 5

www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES

A serious concern, but the word in itself bears fear. Facts:

  • level on Mars = ISS one
  • interplanetary level ~ 2 ISS
  • flux significant but not saturating
  • shielding against “solar” storms easy
  • but GCR shielding not practical

(a 25cm water shield => dose/2)

  • with nominal data, the mission dose

stay within with ISS regulations But data for HZE effects lacking:

  • this has been overlooked…
  • but at last, labs are at work

IONIZING RADIATIONS

(doc. Mars Society) (doc. NASA/JPL)

(doc. NASA)

5

(doc. Simonsen)

slide-6
SLIDE 6

www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES

IONIZING RADIATIONS Data uncertainties need to be reduced:

  • some, on this basis, add 3σ margin
  • this certainly does not allow to conclude

Research on biological effects should:

  • give away with such margins
  • lead to means to enhance cellular defense
  • and procure medical spinoffs

Risk being statistical, programs compare in: # of crew * total dose

  • ver the 26 months missions period:

ISS: 6 crew * ISS6m * 4.33 times 6 months = 26 ISS6m Mars4Crew: 4*(4/6* ISS6m* 2 + ISS6m* 2 + ISS6m* 3 + 2/6* ISS6m* 2) = 28 ISS6m

  • preced. mission end outbound leg Mars stay 2 months of inbound

similar astronauts population risk levels

6

slide-7
SLIDE 7

www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES

PSYCHOLOGICAL ISSUES A challenging matter, with few applicable data Not so much due to the mission duration in itself, but to duration + radical isolation Induced risks:

  • physiological & mental health issues
  • situation awareness
  • false judgments, mishaps
  • group behavior degradation
  • problems with ground control, etc.

Difficult to evaluate. Make use of:

  • spaceflight experience (ISS, Apollo)
  • experience from Antarctic, subs
  • specific simulations (Mars500)

Mars 500 (doc. ESA) Concordia Antarctic station 7

slide-8
SLIDE 8

www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES

PSYCHOLOGICAL ISSUES Probably the field where:

  • feasibility is the most difficult to show
  • but, also, not so costly to scrutinize

Sustained efforts are needed:

  • studies of mission specific conditions
  • psychological effects
  • simulation campaigns in analog sites
  • selection process (individual & team)
  • training
  • habitat design
  • decision-making procedures
  • human factors related risk analysis

Extraordinary individual accomplishments have demonstrated our ability to endure and adapt to extraordinary conditions

Mars Society Utah analog (R.Heidmann) Mars trek: relieving confinement stress 8

slide-9
SLIDE 9

www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES

DESCENT ON MARS (EDL) We know how to land ~1T P/L Landing 25-50T S/C is another problem which:

  • has long been understated
  • requires improved technologies and/or new ones

Some designs take large margins to cover uncertainties:

  • a 40 T TPS mass
  • a 15% descent propellant margin

This leading to the titanic DRA5, a true “project killer” It has also be declared that a full generation will be required to make it Again, proceeding so crudely does not permit to conclude

DRA5 (doc.NASA)) 9

slide-10
SLIDE 10

www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES

DESCENT ON MARS (EDL) A lot of ways to solution: Devices scaling-up:

  • diameter & # of chutes
  • aeroshield diameter

New devices:

  • deployable aeroshield
  • inflatable aeroshield
  • drag devices (ballutes)
  • higher L/D bodies

Scaling-down the S/C by:

  • reducing the crew size (6 => 4)

(also an efficient cost trimmer)

  • descending with 2 (smaller)

modules (a concept overlooked)

(doc. Benton)

Mars Direct Light (doc. Mars Society)

(Babakin Space Center)

10

slide-11
SLIDE 11

www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES

SAFETY: A VERY SPECIAL PROGRAMMATIC ATTRIBUTE Crew safety is:

  • touchy to address
  • difficult to assess
  • impossible to measure

Mars mission conditions are stressing:

  • duration
  • isolation and remoteness
  • intrinsic complexity
  • environmental factors
  • human factors

But there are means to build safety A pLOC similar to Apollo (5%?) is:

  • an affordable goal
  • coherent with ESAS2005/Moon (2%)
  • acceptable with respect to the

achievement

Safe back home! (doc.NASA) 11

slide-12
SLIDE 12

www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES

REINFORCING SAFETY THROUGH HUMAN PRESENCE “The problem of manned missions is… the presence of humans” But this improves safety! by allowing maintenance Reparability is a key for such a long mission, with so much HW / No spares A design revolution for space industry, mainly devoted to not repairable HW ISS shows that we have the skills

dividing reparability by 2 degrades the catastrophic issues % (5.5 % to 9.1 %)

(author Monte-Carlo simulations)

12

slide-13
SLIDE 13

www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES

REINFORCING SAFETY THROUGH SMART MISSION DESIGN Redundancies:

  • decisive (spares cannot be sent)
  • to what extent in the architecture:
  • Up to the top? (von Braun)
  • Split? (“free” redundancy)

Building mission robustness:

  • each phase gets a back-up

Seeking for simplicity:

  • plethora of modules & of critical

events kills the project (safety & cost!)

  • go direct!

Abort to Mars: once perceived unsafe, Mars is more friendly than space (also save the mission)

Mars Direct (doc. R. Zubrin)

A nightmare… (Global Aerospace)

13

slide-14
SLIDE 14

www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES

COSTS

  • Dev. & Ops costs:
  • are often comparatively overlooked
  • which results in taking high margins
  • and in confidence loss

To establish affordability, a project should:

  • show balance between motivations

and budgets

  • present figures compatible with

partners capabilities

  • not stand as an extraordinary

proposal, but as a natural follow-on Problem mainly for the develop. cost, a Mars mission being possible only every 26 months

(doc. APM)

14

slide-15
SLIDE 15

www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES

To establish confidence:

  • refer to detailed industrial project studies
  • make reference to past programs
  • take into account development hazards
  • justify that the project is adjusted to acceptable costs

COSTS There exist means to adapt costs:

  • crew size
  • science equipment
  • planetary mobility means
  • and, of course, technologies readiness

affordability first!

15

slide-16
SLIDE 16

www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES

SUMMARY Raised concerns are real, but ways of solution exist in each case: no real showstoppers Provided the political will, skills are in hand for project development Assessments are easily biased by:

  • preconception of risks
  • insufficient analysis
  • space policy general orientations
  • and even philosophical conceptions

Particularly, we observe:

  • a tendency to overstate problems (cautiousness)
  • a skepticism about humanity future (disillusion)

16

slide-17
SLIDE 17

www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES

SPACE EXPLORATION AND HUMAN SPECIES DESTINY Balking the challenges is renouncing to escape our planetary confinement Our species has the unique capacity to escape its trap Should we miss this chance? Are we less gutsy than this cousin, who gnawed through his trapped arm?

17

slide-18
SLIDE 18

www.planete-mars.com ASTech Space Exploration Conference 17-19/12/2012

SPACE EXPLORATION CHALLENGES

18