South African Weather Service Ezekiel Sebego Topics to be covered - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Disaster Risk Management Awareness Campaign: 1-2 February 2018 Capricorn District, Polokwane

South African Weather Service Ezekiel Sebego

Topics to be covered

• SAWS services to DM
• Limpopo weather hazards and records
• Future Climate projections
• Severe Weather Warning System
• How to access SAWS information

Templ ref: PPT-ISO-colour.001 Doc Ref no:

SAWS Services available to DM

• Climate Information (historical data and

statistics)

• Analysis of Climate trends
• Short term forecasts, warnings and now-

casts (very short range forecasts)

• Medium term weather forecasts and

warnings

• Seasonal forecasts
• Future Climate Scenarios

Limpopo Weather Hazards and seasonality

• Main weather hazards in the district (and

province) are heavy rains, mostly summer, and severe thunderstorms (hail, downpours and damaging wind), mostly Spring and Summer

• Drought (any time of year)
• Extreme temperatures (mostly summer)

Limpopo Climate Rainfall records

LIMPOPO POLOKWANE

Record highest: 1996 Record lowest: 2002, followed closely by 2015 Temperature Extremes for Polokwane Temp Date

Lowest Minimum Temperature

• 3.2 °C

18/07/1954 Lowest Maximum Temperature 8.4 °C 13/06/2016 Highest Minimum Temperature 23.4 °C 09/12/2003 Highest Maximum Temperature 38.4 °C 26/02/1992

Future Climate projections

• Seasonal rainfall onset is projected to delay over South Africa, major shift is

simulated over Limpopo and southern Cape region. Expected to become worse towards end

• f century. Will impact of the length of the growing season.
• Rainfall withdrawal is also expected to be delayed in Limpopo, but with a less

magnitude compared to the onset.

• Yields may suffer significantly with delayed rainfall onset.

Current Severe Weather Warning System

No Alert Special Weather Advisory Weather Watch Weather Warning Be Aware! Be Prepared! Take Action! No hazardous weather expected Early warning

• f potential

hazardous weather Weather conditions are likely to become hazardous Hazard is already

• ccurring or is

imminent 2 to 6 days 1 to 3 days Next 24 hours Intense large weather systems Extreme heat Heat Waves Strong winds High discomfort Heavy rain Disruptive snow Gales High waves Severe T/S Flooding Veldfire conditions Heavy rain Disruptive snow Gales High waves Severe T/S Flooding Veldfire conditions

Based on weather threshold

Moving from:

What the weather will be: (Meteorological thresholds)

• 50mm in 24 hours
• 35 knot winds

What the weather will do: (Impact Warnings)

• Roads flooded
• tress blown over
• Communities cut off

To:

Future Severe Weather Warning System: Impact-based

Access to weather forecasts and Warnings

• Forecasts are available at

www.wweathersa.co.za

• On request at National Forecasting Centre

(DM only)

• Cell phone App to be launched 23 March

2018 (World Meteorological Day)

• Media
• Warnings directly to DM’s on sms, email

and CAP. DM only

END

Additional Notes