Som e Aspects of Vision 2 0 3 0 Conference On Security And - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Conference On Security And Cooperation In South Asia: A Global Perspective October 8-10, 2007 Berlin, Germany

Som e Aspects of Vision 2 0 3 0

Dr Shaukat Hameed Khan Planning Commission Government of Pakistan Islamabad

Vision 2030

“ Developed, industrialized, just and prosperous Pakistan through rapid and sustainable development in a resource constrained economy by deploying knowledge inputs ”

The Historical Context for Vision 2030

Playing Catch-up:

Germany with the UK: ~ 140 years ago:

(Gerschenkron, 1962)

History’s Most Ambitious Benchmarking Exercise: Dec 1871

Meiji Japan’s blueprint for a modern state. (Morishima , 1982

Western Europe and the US:

Concepts of “technological congruence” & “social capability” to characterize the situation for latecomers

(Abramovitz , 1994) The Pacific Rim Countries …. and now China

Earlier Exercises and Studies

What Can / Should Pakistan Look Like in 2030

Six Themes for Vision 2030

• The Global Imperatives and Societal Transformations
• The Just and Sustainable Society
• The Innovative Society: Knowledge, Technology,

and Competition

• The Prosperous Society
• Macroeconomic Framework
• The State; its institutions and Instruments

Perils of forecasting ! (the 640 K syndrome)

• The Techno-Economic- Knowledge Revolution
• Dispersion of information and technology
• The changing nature of work and the workplace
• Massive Realignment of Economic Activity:
• Centers of economic activity are shifting profoundly, not

just globally, but also regionally.

• Relocation of manufacturing, services and design activities

Global Imperatives

• Economic liberalization
• Technological advances
• Capital market developments
• Demographic shifts

Major Challenges for Pakistan

• Depleting Natural Resources : water, land, energy
• The Demographic Transition
• The 24 / 7 Society
• The city of the future as a self-sustaining unit
• Urban and rural economics ?
• The Looming Global Mono-culture
• Global Race for Talent

500 1000 1500 2000 2500

M ach in ery/sem i m an u factu res Electro n ics F u els C h em icals / Ph arm aceu ticals A u to m o tive Pro d u cts A g ricu ltu ral Pro d u cts C lo th in g & T extiles Iro n & Steel M in erals/O th er M etals

Group Valu e USD, b illio n

10 20 30 40 50

G ro w th ( p ercen t)

Value, USD ( B) Growth Rate ( %)

The Nature and Scale of the Challenge

• 1. Composition /Tech. Content of World Trade

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Resource Based Low Tech Medium Tech Hi-Tech

ref: WTO 2006

• 2. Changing Share of High-technology

in Manufacturing, by Country / Region: 1990–2003

Source: “SEI 2006” National Science Foundation USA

The United States, China, and other Asian countries have Shif The United States, China, and other Asian countries have Shifted ted into high into high-

• tech manufacturing more rapidly than the EU and Japan

tech manufacturing more rapidly than the EU and Japan

Asia-8 includes S. Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and India

• 3. China’s R&D expenditures relative to those of USA,

Japan, and EU-25 [ 1991–2003 ] Chinese R&D investment, 1991 to 2003: Average annual increase >> USA, EU 25 , Japan

Source: “SEI 2006” National Science Foundation USA

35 21 16 9 Tertiary 28 29 24 20

• H. Secondary

28 28 24 21 Secondary 8 22 36 50 Primary 2002 1992 1982 1972

Example: Irish Workforce, Educational Attainments ( %)

3. Shift in Global Labour Skill Levels

Ease of Doing Business: Pakistan ranks at 76 out of 180 countries. Rankings of the famous BRIC economies? Brazil at 122, Russia at 106, India at 120, China at 83. Vietnam is at 91 [ Ref: World Bank, Doing Business 2008 ]

Bandwidth Connectivity as seen from the USA

Ref: Rehm atullah et al. Stanford, 2 0 0 5 , The Pinger Project Behind Europe 6 Yrs: Russia,

• L. Am.

7 Yrs: M.E / SE Asia 10 Yrs: South Asia 11 Yrs: Cent. Asia 12 Yrs: Africa

Teledensity at present in Pakistan is ~ 45 % of the 160 m population ( over 71 million connections, growing 2.8 – 3.0 m / month )

Many More Challenges for Pakistan: A Sample

• The Demographic Transition
• The Habitat and Loss of Diverity : Water, Land,

Climate Change, Food and the Environment

• Food Security
• Urbanisation
• Education and Skills: Shortages, gaps
• Energy and Security: Competition, or cooperation

Current Population: 160 m 224 - 260 million in 2030 (over 60 % urban)

Rich countries grew rich before they became old.

10 5 5 10

0-4 15-19 30-34 45-49 60-64 75-79 90-94

Male Female

10 5 5 10 0-4 15-19 30-34 45-49 60-64 75-79 90-94 Male Female

per cent Per cent Age

India

Age

10 5 5 10 0-4 15-19 30-34 45-49 60-64 75-79 90-94 Age Millions Male Female 10 5 5 10 0-4 15-19 30-34 45-49 60-64 75-79 90-94 Age Millions

Male Female

China

2005 2030

Per cent Per cent

10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 0-4 15-19 30-34 45-49 60-64 75-79 90-94

Male Female

10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 0-4 15-19 30-34 45-49 60-64 75-79 90-94

Male Female

Age Age

Per cent Per cent

The demographic transition is a unique event In Pakistan. It has never happened before, and once completed will never happen again. We are living it now.

Different times of peaking

Pakistan: Most Urbanised Country in S. Asia

• Globally, urban dw ellers exceeded those in rural areas

for the first tim e in hum an history in 2 0 0 6 … Shenzen in China

More and more of the economic power is concentrated in mega-cities with more than 10 million inhabitants Klaus Klienfeld, CEO Siemens, 2006

• Pakistan’s urban population : from 5 5 m to 1 3 5 m ( 2 0 3 0 )
• More and m ore settlem ents w ill grow into their

equilibrium size – optim al and functional hierarchies

The Looming Water Shortage in Pakistan

Current storage capacity : 9 % of avg annual flows World average : 40 % of avg annual flows

Efficient Water Use : Ownership, Technology, Processes , Mindset ? Climate Change & the Monsoon Model

Year Population (m) Water / Capita (m3) 1951 34 5650 2003 146 1200 2010 168 1000 2030 230 - 260 770 - 680

The Water Challenge

World’s largest contiguous irrigation system; BUT

• The

cropping intensity for major crops in Pakistan: (twice the 75% assumed in the Indus Basin Treaty)

• Total arable land : 22 million hectares
• 11 % declared ‘disaster area’ because of severe water-

logging and salinity (water table only 0 – 5 feet)

• 20 % under stress (water table 5–10 ft below the surface).
• Overpumping of the aquifers: Islamabad / Rawalpindi :~

water table fell by 1-2 meters/year (1982 to 2000)

• Severe pollution in cotton growing areas

Green Revolution essentially over

Food Security / Crop Improvements expected Changing Dietary Habits !!

T2 Pakistani Research, 25-57% T1 Best Pak. Practice, 31-75% Potential Science Gap ? T4 Pak- World Gap 55 - 83 % T3

Inputs

T0 Current Pakistani Average

Output

• Fed ourselves & exported 1-2 m tons nearly every year
• Case of Cotton from NIAB !

The gene revolution

How do we pay for all this? The Tradition of Waqf?

Possible Enrolment Figures 2002-2030

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

Year

Population, (m), in Age Group 17- 23 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Enrolment numbers (m) Population in age group, 17-23 Enrolment stays at present rate of ~4% Desired Enrolment increase, reaching 8% in 2010 and 20% in 2022 Linear (Enrolment stays at present rate of ~4%)

Ref: MTDF 2005-10

Need to make the accumulation of knowledge and collective competence the driver of economic growth.

[Ref: EFA Global Monitoring Report, 2003-04, except Pakistan (Min. of

• Edu. 2006)

11.4 8.3 6.0 3.8 1.0 13.1 19.0 24.9 31.6 32.5 46.9 48.4 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 U K A u s t r a l i a S w i t z e r l a n d S w e d e n F r a n c e S . K

• r

e a J a p a n T h a i l a n d I r a n M a l a y s i a B r a z i l P a k i s t a n B a n g l a d e s h

Country TVE enrolment, %

1.3 4,0

2003- 04 20 10

Maintaining the societal infrastructure? OR Produce more goods, services, food etc etc ?

133.5 69.0 219.0 23.1 13.8 11.5 3.6 1.4 0.6 0.3

6.7 8.7 3.7 3.5 23.5 9.5 10.5 19.2 11.2 8.2

5 10 15 20 25

Ist , 1955-60 2nd, 1960-65 3rd , 1965-70 Non Plan 1970-78 5th, 1978-83 6th, 1983-88 7th, 1988-93 8th, 1993-98 Non Plan 1998-05 MTDF, 2005-10

Plan Periods

P ercent

0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0

Allocations, (Rs billions)

Allocation ( Rs billion) Percent

Share of Technical Education as Percent

• f Total Allocation for

Education

Many More Benchmarks for Pakistan

Some Current Nodes of Excellence in ICT Sao Paolo …… eBanking Moscow …… Pattern recognition, Beijing ……. Speech recognition, Helsinki/Stockholm ……. Mobile communications, Seoul ……. LCDs, Tokyo .…… High density DVDs, Taiwan .…… Organic LCDs, Boston ……. Gene diagnostics/distr. storage systems, Austin ……. Optical networks….

What innovations and centres of excellence will Pakistan be noted for in 2030?

Unplanned pathways: S&T as change agent

Energy for Growth: Key National Agenda

Availability, Affordability, Sustainability

Low confidence in market mechanisms Key Considerations:

• Energy Efficiency / Conservation : ( T&D), Devices
• Environmentally friendly
• State Intervention:
• Diversify the energy mix
• Reduce imports
• Explore & acquire resources
• Help build structures for cooperation

Fossil fuels : Prime source for the foreseeable future

Energy Profile

Total Primary Energy = 56 MTOE in 2006

360 MTOE by 2030

Power Generation : from 19,540 MW to 162,590 MW Ratio (primary commercial energy growth rate) : (GDP growth rate)

1980 - 2005 :: 0.97 2001 - 2006 :: 1.02

Projected energy growth : 7.2 % p.a. up to 2010 8.8 % thereafter

(infrastructure, HRD)

• Major Shift Planned: coal, nuclear, and renewables

Ref: Vision 2030 ; Energy Security Plan, 2005

23

3 8 12 16 18 39 36 31 27 23 21 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2005 2010 2015 3020 2025 2030

Positions Gained Pakistan's GDP Rank

At 7% Gr.Rate

Pakistan’s Projected GDP Rankings, 2005 – 30

Econom y Size

• Avg. GDP
• Gr. Rate

% Rank PPP adjusted 7 .0 2 1 1 1 5 .0 2 6 1 4 7 6 Pakista 8 3 China 1 2 0 I ndia 1 0 6 Russia 1 2 2 Brazil Ease of Doing Business

[ Ref: World Bank, Doing Business 2008 ]

24

ENERGY SUPPLY MIX, 1993-2006 (MTOE) ENERGY SUPPLY MIX, 1993-2006 (MTOE)

Primary Electricity (Hydro+Nuclear)

Fiscal years ending 30th June

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2006 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Million TOE Gas Oil Coal LPG Primary Electricity (Hydro+Nuclear)

25

ENERGY GAP, MTOE ENERGY GAP, MTOE

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 IMPORTED COAL 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 DEMAND 53.78 79.55 122.96 176.63 255.37 361.47 INDIGENOUS SUPPLIES 39.38 59.94 66.70 81.85 110.43 153.79 IMPORTED OIL 14.66 18.80 30.33 43.27 55.73 63.55 GRAND TOTAL 54.04 80.74 99.03 127.12 168.16 219.34 GAP 0.00 0.81 25.93 51.51 89.21 144.13

MTOE

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Total Indg. Imported Oil Gap

Gap Imported Oil Indigenous Supply Demand

Indigenous Resource Projections

On- Shore Off-Shore Total Total Prospective area ( sq. km .) 6 0 5 ,9 7 8 2 2 1 ,2 9 0 1 3 .0 5 9 8 2 7 ,2 6 8 No of w ells drilled ( 5 7 years) 1 ,3 8 3 1 ,3 9 6 Drilling density * ( No. of w ells / 1 0 0 0 Sq.Km s) 2 .2 8 1 .6 9

* W orld Avg. Drilling Density ( w ells/ 1 0 0 0 Sq.Km s) : ~ 1 0 Canada ?

Energy Resource Potential of Pakistan

Oil , MTOE) (b. barrels) Natural Gas MTOE (Tr. CFT) Coal, MTOE (b. tonne) Resource potential 3,622 (27) 6,849 (282) 82,695 (1850 Proven recoverable reserves 113 (0.84) 1,023 (51.532) 886 (1.98) Cumulative production, 72 (0.54) 410 (18.714) ~89 (~0.20) Remaining recoverable reserves 41 (0.31) 612 (32.819) 797 (1.78) Annual production 3.2 (66,079 barrel/day) 27.9 (1.345) 2.1 (4.587 m tonne) Reserves : production ratio 13 years 22 years ~ 400 years Ref: Vision 2030

Indigenous Supply Projections

40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MTOE

OIL

20

Gas Anticipated Gas Committed Coal Hydel Renewable Nuclear

Major Gap Begins

World’s Largest Coal Reserves, Billions of Tons World’s Largest Coal Reserves, Billions of Tons

Coal Reserves, Billions of Tons United States 2 4 7 I ndia 9 3 Australia 7 9 7 3 Germ any Pakistan 1 8 5 Russia 1 5 7 China 1 1 5

Saudi Arabia + Iran = 402 B. Barrels of Oil = Thar Coal Reserves = 850 TCF of Gas Oil Reserves, Billion Barrels 1 0 1 Kuw ait 5 1 1 5 I raq 4 1 3 8 I ran 3 1 7 9 Canada 2 2 6 4 Saudi Arabia 1

16 Jan 2001 8:17:34 hours

The Coal Environment The Coal Environment

India: Coal Share: 67% in 2002, 47% in 2032 ( ~ 4 x absolute) USA: 100 New Coal Plants, 500 MW avg, capacity announced during 2000-04

Renew able Energy Num bers only? Renew able Energy Num bers only?

Wind: 43,000 MW possible (Gharo, MirpurSakero, Talhar Sindh) Planned (MW): 880 (2010), 3150 ( 2020), 9700 ( 2030) Solar: S. Pakistan; 2,140 KWh /sq m / year <54,000 remote homes electrified> solar microwind< Biofuels: Cars to run on at least 2 fuels ( gasoline, CNG, ethanol); Biogas plants . Profitability and Environmental Impact in State of Flux:

• Fuel prices, Feedstock cost /availability, Government

regulation, and Conversion technologies.

• SUBSIDIES
• NOx emissions from bio-diesel?

Nuclear Matters Nuclear Matters Nuclear

CAPACITY CUMULATIVE

EXISTING 400 400 ADDITION 2020 2500 2800 ADDITION 2030 6000 8800 * KANUPP retires in 2019

• Global : 53 % energy expansion expected by 2030

( IEA 2006)

• 435 NPPs, 370 GW, 16% of world capacity
• Expansions : OECD, USA, Japan, Asia
• Availability of uranium: Once through ….50 Years?
• Waste, Safety

Nuclear Concerns Nuclear Concerns

• 1. Assured Supply vs Proliferation
• More states with NPPs
• Equitrable & Accessible to all potential users
• 3. NPT and the NSG:
• US-Indian Nuclear Agreement? Energy & W eapons
• National & I nternational Law s: Disregard
• 3. Role of IAEA
• International Cooperation / legal Framework
• Nuclear Islands
• Int. Nuclear Fuel Centres / Common Reserves

Current Short Term Med Term Long Term 2 0 0 4 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 MTOE % MTOE % % % MTOE MTOE

5 0 .8 1 0 0 7 9 .4 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 7 7 .4 3 6 1 .3

Oil

1 5 .2 3 0 2 0 .7 2 6 4 5 .5 2 5 .7 6 6 .8 1 8 .5

Natural gas

2 5 .5 5 0 3 9 .0 4 9 7 7 .9 4 4 1 6 2 .6 4 5 .0

Coal

3 .3 6 .5 7 .2 9 2 4 .8 1 4 .0 6 8 .7 1 9 .0

Hydro

6 .4 1 2 .7 1 1 .0 1 3 .9 2 1 .4 1 2 .1 3 8 .9 1 0 .8

Renew able

0 .0 0 0 .0 0 .8 1 .1 3 .0 0 1 .7 9 .2 2 .5

Nuclear

0 .4 0 .8 0 .7 0 .9 4 .8 1 2 .7 1 5 .1 4 .2

Category

Energy Mix Plan Projections

Regional Energy Demand Projections

• Growth rate of primary commercial energy:
• China: For 2000-2005, the average was 9.96 per cent

(slightly higher than the GDP growth rate of 9.5 per cent p.a)

• India : ~ 4.5 % p.a projected up 20 2032 ( Kakodkar,

2004) Issues: Greater dependence on fewer suppliers Risk of disruptions in transit Major investments in both producing and consuming countries

Mitigating Vulnerable Supply Routes Mitigating Vulnerable Supply Routes

Maritime route to Shanghai [14,000 KM] = about 16 days…. << Choke Point : Malacca Straits >>

• 50% of Chinese oil imports come from the M. East.
• 80% passes through Malacca Straits
• Future World Supplies dependent on M.E. heavy crude Oil

NELTI TRACECA North -South Corridor Trans Sibirean Corridor

Oil Gas Maritime Energy / Trade Corridor KRA

Kra Canal

• 2 lanes 120 km,
• 2 b tons/year,
• 250,000 ton

ships

37

Gas Projects, Pakistan as Energy Hub

UG / BOI

Disputed Territory

g

Thank You