Solar Goes Corporate May 31 st , 2017 New York, New York Thank You to Our Sponsors www.seia.org 1
Welcome Abby Hopper President & CEO, SEIA
Master of Ceremonies Mike Smith Vice President of Finance & Operations, SEIA
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The State of C&I Markets Colin Smith Analyst, U.S. Utility Solar GTM Research
2016 Was a Banner Year for the U.S. Solar Market 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Residential Non-Residential Utility SEIA’s Solar Goes Corporate Source: GTM Research 8
Market Drivers to Watch: Utility Solar’s Reboot Pegged to Non -RPS Demand 12,000 10,760 3% 11% 9,6629,843 10,000 9,215 Utility PV Installations (MWdc) 8,114 37% 7,895 8,000 37% 6,480 21% 6,000 63% 4,266 3,922 4,000 2,855 1,803 2,000 28% RPS Driven Non RPS Driven 0 PURPA Voluntary Procurement 20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 Retail Procurement CCA SEIA’s Solar Goes Corporate Source: GTM Research 9
Utility PV in Development by State as of May 2017 WA ME MT ND VT OR MN NH MA MW in Development ID SD WI NY CT RI WY MI 0-20 PA IA NJ NE NV OH DE IN IL UT MD CA WV 20-100 CO VA KS MO KY NC TN 100-500 OK AZ AR SC NM GA MS AL > 500 LA TX FL www.seia.org May 31, 2017 10
2016 was a banner year for the U.S. solar market $200 $175 $150 PPA Price ($/MWh) $125 $100 $75 Combined Cycle Gas $50 $25 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 PPA Contract Execution Date SEIA’s Solar Goes Corporate Source: GTM Research 11
Declines in Utility PV System Pricing U.S. Utility Fixed-Tilt PV System Pricing H2 2016-2022E ($/Wdc) $1.20 $1.07 $0.95 $1.00 $0.89 $0.86 $0.78 $0.75 $0.80 $0.72 $0.70 $/Wdc $0.60 $0.40 $0.20 $- H2 2016 H1 2017E H2 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Module Inverter & Skid EBOS SBOS Labor Non-Labor Soft Costs www.seia.org May 31, 2017 12
A Case Study of Texas: Utility Solar’s Value Proposition in ERCOT West Texas 20 Year PPAs Over Last 12 Months vs. Recent Utility PV PPA Prices’ as a % Premium or ERCOT West Annual Energy Price Forecast Discount to ERCOT West Price Outlook $70 120% 2nd nd Hal Half f of of 20 Yea Year PPA A Max PPA 100% Terms Ter $60 Price % Delta of PPA Prices from ERCOT West Cost Competitive Hedge 80% $50.00 or Discount to Wholesale $50 60% Power Pricing 40% $/MWh $40 Min PPA 20% Price $30 0% $40.00 1st Half Half of of 20 Yea Year PPA $20 Ter Terms -20% Fixed Price Hedge -40% $10 Against Wholesale Price -60% $0 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 ERCOT West www.seia.org 13 May 31, 2017
Market Drivers to Watch: Utility Solar’s Reboot Pegged to Non -RPS Demand Corporate Offsite Renewables: Total Addressable Market Current State of Offsite Solar PPA Market 2.0 160 139 1.8 1.7 1.8 140 1.5 1.6 120 1.4 100 1.2 Ggiawatts (AC) Gigawatts (AC) 73 80 1.0 59 60 0.8 40 0.6 0.4 15 0.4 20 10 0.2 0 0.0 Q2-2017 Q2-2017 In Development Operating SEIA’s Solar Goes Corporate Source: GTM Research 14
MW of Retail Procurement In Development or Operating WA ME MT ND VT OR MN NH MA ID SD WI NY MW in Development CT RI WY MI PA IA NJ 0-20 NE NV OH DE IN IL UT MD WV CA CO VA KS MO 20-100 KY NC TN OK 100-500 AZ SC AR NM GA MS AL > 500 LA TX FL SEIA’s Solar Goes Corporate Source: GTM Research 15
2016 was a banner year for the U.S. solar market WA Non RPS ME Drivers MT ND VT OR MN NH MA Green Tariff ID SD WI NY CT RI WY MI ISO PA IA NJ NE NV OH DE IN IL UT CCAs MD CA WV CO VA KS MO KY NC TN OK AZ SC AR NM GA MS AL LA TX FL SEIA’s Solar Goes Corporate Source: GTM Research 16
What Will Drive U.S. Corporate Offsite Procurement 2017-2022? 1. Green Tariffs – Utilities will respond to customer demand for renewable procurement 2. Presence of ISO / RTO – The hedge contract OR contract for differences will become prevalent 3. California Community Choice Aggregators – CCAs will expand faster than direct access 4. Corporate political involvement – Companies will work with state utility commissions www.seia.org May 31, 2017 17
The New Investor: Corporate Procurement as an Investment Moderator Melissa Peterson Jason Spreyer Alvaro Pereira Robert Sternthal Director of Business SVP, Business Director of Global Supply President, CohnReznick Development, Apex Development Advisory Services, EnerNOC Capital Clean Energy Brookfield Renewables
Solar Goes Corporate May 31 st , 2017 New York, New York Thank You to Our Sponsors www.seia.org 19
Opening the Commercial Real Estate Sector Kim Saylors-Laster Wayne Pfisterer Moderator Laura Stern Yaniv Kalish President, Pfister EVP & Chief Mike Mendelsohn Co-founder and CEO, SolarKal Procurement Officer, Energy Senior Director of President, Black Bear Energy Inc. Project Finance and Nautilus Solar Energy Capital Markets, SEIA
SolarKal Yaniv Kalish, CEO SEIA’s Solar Goes Corporate www.seia.org May 31, 2017
Non-Fortune 500 Companies Are Lagging Behind Small & Medium Businesses Are Not Adopting Solar For Solar Companies, For Businesses, switching to marketing & sales is time- solar is complex and consuming and inefficient. confusing. For a single lead, multiple companies conduct the There are hundreds of solar companies in each market. same preliminary work. SMBs lack education about mechanics, tax incentives & Installers have low conversion rates for proposals. financing options of solar. www.seia.org 22 SolarKal | The Premier Solar Broker
The Shape of the Commercial Solar Market UNTAPPED GROWING FRAGMENTED 0.5% of roofs have solar Installation Capacity Expected to Triple in Next 5 years 3,000 87 billion sq. ft in roof space MW 1,000 350 2/3 of the market $1.2Tn in potential made up of 1,000s of SMB market 2010 2015 2020e regional installers Source: GTM Research www.seia.org 23 SolarKal | The Premier Solar Broker
Pfister Energy Wayne Pfisterer, President SEIA’s Solar Goes Corporate www.seia.org May 31, 2017
Stacking technologies for optimal energy savings and ROI www.seia.org 25 25
Stackable Technologies Roof System: Solar-ready PVC cool roof Renewable Energy: 775KW solar array Energy Efficiency: 72 daylighting units, LED lighting, daylight harvesting & occupancy sensing Total Savings: $1.75 million ROI: 4.1 years (21.2% IRR after tax) www.seia.org 26
Changing the way energy is generated and delivered. ReTHINK ENERGY. Wayne Pfisterer President, Pfister Energy, Inc. wpfister@pfisterenergy.com @PfisterEnergy (973) 653-9880 letsgo@pfisterenergy.com www.pfisterenergy.com www.seia.org
Black Bear Energy Kim Saylors-Laster, Executive Vice- President & Chief Procurement Officer SEIA’s Solar Goes Corporate www.seia.org May 31, 2017
BLACK BEAR ENERGY: FOCUS 2.5B+ SQF C & I CLIENTS 4 TECHNOLOGY VERTICALS SOLAR ENERGY STORAGE LED FUEL CELL www.seia.org 29
BLACK BEAR ENERGY: OWNER/USER REPRESENTATION STEP 1 - SCOPE • Identify goals • Screen portfolio for target assets • Present short list for selection STEP 2 - DEVELOP • Refine standard contracts (lease, PPA, etc.) • Conduct initial technical screening • Define key property parameters STEP 3 - PROCURE • Conduct competitive RFP • Normalize, evaluate and present bids • Finalize contracts with selected supplier(s) STEP 4 – IMPLEMENT • Develop/coordinate construction timeline • Confirm design and construction standards • Oversee construction process www.seia.org 30
www.seia.org 31 CONFIDENTIAL
How Do Commercial & Industrial Buyers See Solar Energy in the Larger Context of their Energy Procurement Strategies? Ali Rotatori Moderator Kathryn Wiseman Holly Lahd Chelsea Mozen Associate, Abigail Hopper Director, Global Lead Energy Senior Manager, Business President & CEO, Public Policy, Program Energy + Carbon, SEIA Renewables Walmart Manager, Target Etsy Center, Rocky Mountain Institute
Solar Goes Corporate May 31 st , 2017 New York, New York Thank You to Our Sponsors www.seia.org 33
Quick Talk: Why New FERC Rules on Energy Storage Will Expand Options for Corporate procurement of Renewable Resources Mark Perlis Of Counsel, Covington & Burling LLP
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