Socio-Economic Opportunities in Technological Change: Collaborative - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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COLLABORATIVE COMMUNITY RESILIENCE Socio-Economic Opportunities in Technological Change: Collaborative Community Resilience Linton Wells II linwells@gmail.com, 202 436.6354, Skype: linwells IRAHSS 2017 July 18, 2017 Summary 4 th

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Socio-Economic Opportunities in Technological Change: Collaborative Community Resilience

Linton Wells II

linwells@gmail.com, 202 436.6354, Skype: linwells

IRAHSS 2017

July 18, 2017

COLLABORATIVE COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

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Summary

  • 4th Industrial Revolution
  • Velocity of Tech Change
  • 7 Disruptive Techs “That Could be Worth Trillions”
  • Threat of Job Loss to AI and Automation
  • Collaborative Community Resilience (COLCORE)
  • COLCORE Components
  • STAR-TIDES
  • Status
  • Partnering Opportunities
  • Integrated Resilience and Risk Management
  • Research Needs

7/18/2017 v4 Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354 2

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Four Industrial Revolutions

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  • 1st ~1780s:
  • 2nd ~1870:
  • 3rd ~1969:
  • 4th just beginning: fuse technologies “blur lines

between physical, digital and biological spheres”

Source: Klaus Schwab, “The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond,” 14 January 2016 http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/, accessed February 16, 2016 Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354

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4th Industrial Revolution (4th IR)

  • Key distinctions between 3rd & 4th revolutions:

– Velocity of change, scope, and systems-wide impact

  • Massively disruptive, and accelerating
  • Transforming management, as well as production and

distribution

  • Can provide very important collective benefits to

society, but also negatively affect many individuals –Loss of jobs and pace of social change –Machine learning and artificial intelligence

  • Responses must engage public-private, whole-of-

society, and trans-national stakeholders

– In comprehensive, integrated ways

7/18/2017 v4 4 Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354

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Velocity of Tech Change

  • If a factor, e.g. computing power/unit cost, doubles every 18 mo, 5 yr

increase is 900%, 10 yr 10,000%, 15 yr ~100,000% – Biotech even faster, robotics ubiquitous, nano poised breakout, energy impacts are global

  • - Think BRINE (bio-robo-info-nano-energy) + Additive Manufacturing

Interactions complicate things Linear projections CAN’T work

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Growth in Computing Power per Unit Cost Capability doubles every 18 months Capability doubles every 24 months

Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354

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These 7 Disruptive Technologies “Could Be Worth Trillions of Dollars”*

7/18/2017 v4 Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354 6

  • Deep Learning -- $17T in tech, health, finance, xport, etc.
  • Mobility Services -- $10T by 2030, 20% to vehicle makers
  • 3D Printing of Finished Products at Scale -- $41B+ by 2025
  • CRISPR and Related Tech -- Not on investors’ radar yet
  • Mobile Transactions – Up 15x to $15T by 2020. Asia leads
  • Robotics and Automation -- $12T increase in US by 2035
  • Blockchain and Cryptoassets -- 60+% expect >$1T in 10 yrs

* Projections by ARC From SingularityHub, June 16, 2017

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4th IR Job-Related Security Issues (1)

  • 4th IR can raise global incomes and improve quality of

lives

– More unequal and disrupted labor markets – Loss of jobs, “low-skill/low-pay” and “high-skill/high pay” groups – Societal inequalities and social tensions

  • Service jobs particularly vulnerable to automation

– Services are some 80% of developed world employment, growing role in developing economies – McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) 2017 study:

  • less than 5 percent of all occupations can be automated entirely
  • “about 60% of all occupations have at least 30% of constituent

activities that could be automated.” [with present tech]

7/18/2017 v4 7 Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354

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Job-Related Security Implications (2)

  • Impacts likely to be more severe in youth bulge areas

– Parts of Islamic world, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, plus megacities and under-served parts of developed world – Pressures for migration & radicalization if NO entry level jobs

  • Hence no stake in international system
  • Many types of security problems:

– Impact of a million refugees on Europe in 2015 – Many times more likely in future – High potential for domestic unrest, scapegoat- finding, radical nationalism and protectionism

  • Unless governments and the private sector “are really

skillful in managing these changes” -- track record not encouraging

7/18/2017 v4 8 The Economist has been especially good in reporting on these topics Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354

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Job-Related Security Implications (3)

4th IR challenges are beyond focus of many government efforts

– Could have exceptional prosperity (“Abundance”) – But there are potential threats to existing security structures

  • Political, social, economic & technological issues

threaten true center of gravity of future conflicts: resilience of populations of engaged nations

  • Can challenge social compacts

– How to shape a more optimistic future?

7/18/2017 v4 9 Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354

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  • Consider ways that build Community

Resilience against diverse threats

  • Natural, man-made, and economic
  • Using collaborative (peering/sharing)

approaches

  • Leveraging emerging technologies
  • Nation State often too big, family too small
  • Build on common community values of

dignity, justice and fairness

Proposal

7/18/2017 v4 Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354 10

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Collaborative Community Resilience*

Promote Capable Communities that are: Productive, Resilient to Emerging Challenges and Sustainable by Local Resources

COLLABORATIVE COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

Reduce Pressures for Migration, Radicalization and Marginalization

* Previously called BROCADE (Building Resilient Opportunities in Culturally Aligned, Diverse Environments)

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How Can COLCORE Help?

Shift Focus from Threat to Opportunity Make it possible for those who want to stay to do so

Leverage Robin Chase's "Peers, Inc." construct to build community- based approaches:

  • "Inc." represents industrial-strength "platforms" (like internet)
  • "Peers" (individuals ) can use platforms to innovate
  • Airbnb reached 650,00 beds in 4 years with 2 “platforms”
  • Internet and rooms
  • Uber also uses 2 “platforms”
  • Internet and cars

Many more platforms can be leveraged

COLLABORATIVE COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

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Potential Platform Groups

Aligned with Multiple International Standards

7/18/2017 v4 Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354 13

Shelter, Heating/Cooling, Lighting

  • Low Cost, Culturally Aligned Shelters, GIE Housing & Infrastructure

Water, Sanitation, Hygiene (WASH)

  • Aligns with UN & GIE WASH categories

Agriculture, Food Security

  • High efficiency urban agriculture, UN OCHA food security, DHS food & agriculture

sectors, SDG goal 2, KSS risk analysis & mitigation strategy for global food, water, energy Information & Communications Technology (ICT)

  • Ubiquitous connectivity, UN Emergency Telecoms Cluster, Hastily Formed Networks, DHS

IT & Comms, innovative learning, Conversational User Interfaces (CUI), cybersecurity Energy, Energy Storage

  • Aligns with SDG goal 7, UN OCHA clusters

Health, Nutrition, Integrated Cooking

  • STAR-TIDES Life Support & Integrated Cooking, Telemedicine, SDG Goal 3
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STAR-TIDES

is a Global Knowledge-Sharing Research Project that Complements Collaborative Community Resilience

  • Leverage Global Talent – Share knowledge through

www.star-tides.net network

  • Promote Integrated Approaches -- Integrate several

"platforms" to meet local needs

  • Support Local Societies -- Listen to local populations
  • Seek solutions that they can sustain
  • Change Behaviors – Recognize that no lesson is really

learned until behavior changes, so

  • Train, exercise, educate and incentivize to cause

people to do things differently COLLABORATIVE COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

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Two STAR-TIDES elements are key to COLCORE

1. Global network (www.star-tides.net): several thousand nodes worldwide: public-private, whole-of-government, trans-national 2. Integration of diverse technologies STAR-TIDES looks at cross-cutting approaches across six infrastructures, plus cross-cutting elements such as Narratives, Systems Thinking, Logistics, etc. Network members can help integrate multiple infrastructures (“platforms”) to support COLCORE communities –unique capability COLLABORATIVE COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

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The goal is to “Make hope possible, rather than despair convincing”— Raymond Wilson

Governance and institution-building will be key Must understand what dignity, justice and fairness mean in whatever culture is at the center of a particular project—technical solutions alone are never enough Promote human security: “freedom from want” and “freedom from fear”

COLLABORATIVE COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

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Integrated COLCORE & STAR-TIDES Overview

Political (Governance) Economic (Development) Social (Resilience) Technological (Platforms) Cross-Cutting Elements: Narrative; Systems Thinking; Shared Knowledge; Logistics; Digital Enabling Technology

7/18/2017 v4 17

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COLCORE & STAR-TIDES Politico-Socio-Economic Areas

Political Economic Social Community Governance Coordinate and Manage Build Institutions Design Plan Budget and Execute Provide Security, Protection Provide Services Communicate Cross-Cutting Elements: Narrative (for all stakeholders); Systems Thinking; Shared Knowledge (lessons truly learned); Logistics (right things, right place, right time); Digital Enabling Tech (sensors, data and analytics, GIS, identity management, blockchain, easy-to-use interfaces, etc.) Community Development Community Resilience Collaborative Economic Opportunities Local Production Public-Private Cooperation Critical Infrastructures Financing Community Values Risk Management “Anti-Fragile” Structures Education “Be Prepared to Bounce Forward Better” Sectors such as Youth, Gender, Democracy, and Human Rights fall within community focus of individual COLCORE projects. Climate Change affects nearly all areas.

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  • COLCORE and STAR-TIDES transitioning to George Mason

University (GMU) near DC: teaching, research, outreach

  • Workshops held since Oct 2016
  • Added focus on Appalachia in partnership with Shepherd U
  • Tom Friedman was keynote speaker in Feb 2017
  • Have looked at project sites in MENA, Sub-Saharan Africa, and

East Asia, plus others in U.S.

  • Key in all cases is local support and leadership
  • 11th Tech demo will be Sept 12-14 at GMU, 18-20 Sep at Pentagon

Please attend!

Status

COLLABORATIVE COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

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Partnering Opportunities

  • STAR-TIDES and COLCORE may be in a new GMU Center of

Excellence in Community Resilience—partners welcome

  • Address core ideas and important security concepts
  • Diversity, Diplomacy, Development, Defense and Resilience
  • Wide range of talent
  • Platforms could attract at least 10 academic components
  • Engineering (several parts), Science, GIS, Public Policy,

Conflict Analysis, School of Business, Health & Human Svcs, Education, Cybersecurity

  • Promote: multi-disciplinary research projects, student & faculty

interest, future courses

  • Could attract funding

COLLABORATIVE COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

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Integrated Resilience and Risk Management

  • STAR-TIDES and COLCORE approaches share much with

risk appraisal and management methods to:

  • Enhance cybersecurity
  • Contribute to military “mission assurance”
  • Reduce cascading casualties across infrastructures
  • Deal with interdependencies in “Smart Cities”
  • Provide insurance and re-insurance
  • A future “Integrated Resilience and Risk Management”

approach could bridge gaps among public (civil and military), private, academic and IO/NGO environments to support effective resilience-building strategies

COLLABORATIVE COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

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Research Needs

  • Research opportunities in many areas

– Decision-Making, Engineering, Science, Conflict Analysis and Resolution, Public Policy, also Business & Education – Focus at Policy-Technology-Sociology-Economy interface

  • Promote change in how Organizations, People,

Processes and Technology come together

– Link security and sustainability goals, public-private, trans-national mechanisms & regional cooperation

  • Identify communities for pilot projects

– Develop best practices, but recognize some may fail – Learn how to SCALE rapidly

  • Tie pieces together. Who will lead?

7/18/2017 v4 22 Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354

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Questions for Young People

  • Networked minds
  • What else?

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What technologies will your children use to befuddle you the way you befuddle you parents? Perhaps:

  • Cyborgization of the human body
  • Trans-generational perception

differences

  • Genome modification

Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354