SINGAPORE REAL ESTATE MARKET
Q2 2020
SINGAPORE REAL ESTATE MARKET Q2 2020 D I S C L AI M E R S AN D - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
SINGAPORE REAL ESTATE MARKET Q2 2020 D I S C L AI M E R S AN D WAI V E R S This presentation has been prepared in good faith based on CBREs current views of the commercial real- estate market. Although CBRE believes its views reflect
Q2 2020
This presentation has been prepared in good faith based on CBRE’s current views of the commercial real- estate market. Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation, they are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond CBRE’s control. In addition, many of CBRE’s views are opinion and/or projections based on CBRE’s subjective analyses of current market circumstances. Other firms may have different opinions, projections and analyses, and actual market conditions in the future may cause CBRE’s current views to later be incorrect. CBRE has no
change. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as an indicator of the future performance of CBRE’s securities or of the performance of any other company’s securities. You should not purchase or sell securities – of CBRE or any other company – based on the views herein. CBRE disclaims all liability for securities purchased or sold based on information herein, and by viewing this presentation, you waive all claims against CBRE and the presenter as well as against CBRE’s affiliates, officers, directors, employees, agents, advisers and representatives arising out of the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or your use of the information herein.
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D I S C L AI M E R S AN D WAI V E R S
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
COVID-19: GOVERNMENT RESPONSES
Source: MTI
Total: $99.7b (20.0% of GDP)
15% property tax rebate for qualifying commercial properties 30% property tax rebate for tourism sector 0.5 month rental waiver for commercial tenants offered by government agencies e.g. HDB Deferral of GST increase until 2022 & cash transfers of S$100-300 to support local retail spending Jobs Support Scheme (JSS) to support offer 8% grant for local employees up to a wage cap of S$3,600 100% property tax rebate for qualifying commercial properties. Offices, business parks and industrial buildings will get 30% property tax rebate 2 months rental waiver for commercial tenants offered by government agencies Cash transfers of S$300-900 to individuals Deferral of corporate income tax for 3 months JSS to co-fund 75% of Singaporean wages for April, up to S$4,600 pm, with 25% co-funding for remainder of 3
Rental waiver for industrial and office tenants of government agencies raised to 1 month from 0.5 month previously Cash transfers of S$600-1,200 to individuals, up from S$300-900 previously JSS and foreign worker levies extended to another month. Affected firms will also see greater wage support Each household to receive $100 in utilities credit Cash grants for qualifying SME tenants equivalent to around 0.8 and 0.64 months for retail and office/industrial tenants respectively 26 Mar: Resilience Budget ($48.4b) 18 Feb: Unity Budget ($6.4b) 6 Apr: Solidarity Budget $(8.9b) 27 May: Fortitude Budget ($33.0b)
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
COVID- 19 MEASURES
Rental relief framework for SMEs:
– 31 Dec 2020).
rental arrears accumulated from 1 Feb -19 Oct 2020.
Relief measur ures for landlords & businesses:
provide rental waivers or repayment scheduling to tenants under the COVID-19 (Temporary Measure) Amendment Act.
transparency.
COVID-19 (Temporary Measur ures) Act:
materially caused by a COVID-19 event (Leases/Licenses, Construction/Supply etc)
bankruptcy.
premises due to COVID-19, must serve a notification for relief on the landlord. Property Contractual Obligations
Source: CBRE Research, MAS, MinLaw, MOF, MTI *Criteria: 1)SMEs are defined as less than S$100 mil turnover in 2019. 2) Reduction of 35% or more from Apr – May 2020, compared to Apr – May 2019 3) Tenancy entered into before 25 Mar 2020
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
COVID- 19 MEASURES
Fintech sector:
Grant & $125 mil support package Fintech SMEs
Small & Medium um Enterprises (SMEs):
support lending to SMEs
Loan Programme
Start-up ups:
Start ups
Jobs Support Scheme:
paid to each local employee in a ten-month period through cash subsidies Labour
Source: CBRE Research, MAS, MinLaw, MOF, MTI
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
IMPACT ON GDP
Note: Based on real GDP growth, chained (2015) dollars Source: CBRE Research, Oxford Economics, MTI
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
5-Yr CAGR
5.4%
5-Yr CAGR
6.7%
5-Yr CAGR
2.9%
5-Yr CAGR
2.1%
MTI: 2020
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR THE OFFICE MARKET
Source: CBRE Research
Strong focus on cost containment
More renewals were observed, with some tenants looking to downsize space requirements
Strong focus on cost containment
More renewals were observed, with some tenants looking to downsize space requirements
Office rents corrected for the 2nd consecutive quarter
Grade A Core CBD rents declined 3.0% q-o-q to reach S$11.15 psf/month
Office rents corrected for the 2nd consecutive quarter
Grade A Core CBD rents declined 3.0% q-o-q to reach S$11.15 psf/month
Supply Outlook Manageable
Concerns around the pool of secondary space that will add to primary vacancy
Supply Outlook Manageable
Concerns around the pool of secondary space that will add to primary vacancy
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
OFFICE MARKET SNAPSHOT
Source: CBRE Research
AS AT Q2 2020
Existing Stock 61.8 million sq ft private office stock of which 31.2 million sq ft in Core CBD New Supply Estimated new supply of 3.9 million sq ft over the next 4 ½ years (2H 2020 - 2024) Take Up Approximately -293,040 sq ft take up in Q2 2020 Vacancy Grade A 2.9% (2.4%) Core CBD 5.6% (4.6%) Fringe CBD 5.6% (5.7%) Decentralised 5.4% (4.8%) Rents Grade A $11.15 psf/mth (-3.0% qoq) Grade B (CBD Core) $8.45 psf/mth (-2.3% qoq) Grade B (Islandwide) $7.85 psf/mth (-1.9% qoq) Grade B (Decentralised) $6.45 psf/mth (-2.3% qoq)
51% 26% 23% CBD Core Fringe CBD Decentralised
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
ISLANDWIDE SUPPLY-DEMAND DYNAMICS
Source: CBRE Research
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 NLA (mil sq. ft.) Net Supply Net Absorption Vacancy
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
SUBMARKET VACANCIES
Source: CBRE Research
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
SUPPLY LOOKS MANAGEABLE
Note: Due to rounding, numbers do not add up precisely to the totals indicated. *Includes the estimated potential office space from SP - Labrador Park which has yet to obtain planning permission from URA. Source: CBRE Research
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F* 2024F Estimated NLA (mil sf) Historic New Completions Grade A CBD (Non-Grade A) Rest of Island Strata Titled 10-Yr Avg: 1.77 mil 5-Yr Avg: 1.16 mil Area (sq ft) % of Total New Supply Grade A 2.54 mil sf 55% CBD (non-grade A) 0.81 mil sf 18% Rest of Island 1.25* mil sf 27% Strata Titled 0.0 mil sf 0% TOTAL 3.94* mil sf 37% 80% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 63.2% 20.4%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2024 2023* 2022 2021 2H 2020
Pre-commitment levels of Pipeline Supply (2H 2020 - 2024) Pre-comm/Under Offer Strata-titled For Lease
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
TOP
543K 310K 518K 140K 118K 635K 195K 131K 208K 1,258K 650K 670K 542K 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
MAJOR UPCOMING OFFICE DEVELOPMENTS
Only include projects >100,000 sf and which are not wholly strata-titled *Includes the estimated potential office space from SP - Labrador Park which has yet to obtain planning permission from URA. Source: CBRE Research
Core CBD (Other) Core CBD (Grade A) Fringe CBD Decentralised Commitment Under offer
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
CBD CORE OFFICE RENTAL PROJECTIONS
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2020
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Q2 2004 Q4 2004 Q2 2005 Q4 2005 Q2 2006 Q4 2006 Q2 2007 Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q4 2008 Q2 2009 Q4 2009 Q2 2010 Q4 2010 Q2 2011 Q4 2011 Q2 2012 Q4 2012 Q2 2013 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q4 2015 Q2 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q4 2017 Q2 2018 Q4 2018 Q2 2019 Q4 2019 Q2 2020 End 2020 (F) End 2021 (F) End 2022 (F) (S$psf/month) Grade A Rent (Core CBD) Grade B (Core CBD) Q2’20 Grade A: S$ 11.15 10-yr Average (2010 – 2019): Grade A: S$10.11 Grade A Growth Y-O-Y Grade B Growth Y-O-Y End 2018 $10.80 14.9% $8.30 11.4% End 2019 $11.55 6.9% $8.70 4.8% Q2 2020 $11.15
$8.45
End 2020 (F) $10.05
$7.60
End 2021 (F) $10.50 4.5% $7.95 4.6% End 2022 (F) $10.55 0.5% $8.00 0.6%
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR THE RETAIL MARKET
Source: CBRE Research
Consolidation / closures for poorer performing stores
F&B, entertainment and fashion sectors more susceptible
Consolidation / closures for poorer performing stores
F&B, entertainment and fashion sectors more susceptible
Balancing occupancy with rental expectations
Rental decline higher for secondary locations and floors
Balancing occupancy with rental expectations
Rental decline higher for secondary locations and floors
Rental corrections still relatively muted
Partially offset by government rental rebates and marketing costs offered by landlords
Rental corrections still relatively muted
Partially offset by government rental rebates and marketing costs offered by landlords
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
TOURISM ARRIVALS
0.0% 20.0% 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Total Arrivals % y-o-y
Visitor Arrivals YTD
Visitor Arrivals (May 20)
Source: STB, CBRE Research
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
RETAIL SALES
0.0% 10.0% Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20
Retail sales (seasonally adjusted)
S E C T O R B R E A K D O W N F O R M AY 2 0 ( % Y - O - Y )
Source: Singstat, CBRE Research
% y-o-y
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
F&B SALES
0% 10% 2018 Jan 2018 Mar 2018 May 2018 Jul 2018 Sep 2018 Nov 2019 Jan 2019 Mar 2019 May 2019 Jul 2019 Sep 2019 Nov 2020 Jan 2020 Mar 2020 May
F&B sales (May 20)
Online F&B sales make up 45% of all F&B sales in May 20 Phase 2: Restaurants have their seating capacity reduced by 40% to 50% due to 1m social distancing rule. Over 40 F&B closures reported in H1 2020
Source: Singstat, CBRE Research
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
NET ABSORPTION & SUPPLY (PRIVATE RETAIL)
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Vacancy (%) NLA (mil sq ft)
Net Supply Net Absorption Vacancy
Vacancies higher for non-prime malls and secondary floors
Source: URA, CBRE Research
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
PRIME RENTS (SUBURBAN VS. ORCHARD)
$26.00 $28.00 $30.00 $32.00 $34.00 $36.00 $38.00 $40.00 Q2 2008 Q4 2008 Q2 2009 Q4 2009 Q2 2010 Q4 2010 Q2 2011 Q4 2011 Q2 2012 Q4 2012 Q2 2013 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q4 2015 Q2 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q4 2017 Q2 2018 Q4 2018 Q2 2019 Q4 2019 Q2 2020 S$ psf/month
Prime Orchard Prime Suburban
Q2 2008 30%
Rental gap has fallen to 7.1%
Sub-market Q2 20 Prime Rent Q-o-Q Q Change Y-o-Y Change Orchard Road $31.05
Suburban $29.00
Islandwide $24.45
Source: CBRE Research
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
GOVERNMENT SUPPORT FOR TENANTS Rental support for eligible SMEs
Type of Relief Rental Relief for Qualifying Commercial Government cash grant for eligible SMEs
Property Tax Rebate
Total Government Assistance 2 months (April-May) Landlord rental relief for eligible SMEs 2 months (June-July) Overall Total (Government + Landlord) 4 months (April-July)
COVID-19 (Temporary Measures) (Amendment) Act 2020
Type of Relief Tenants can serve a notification of relief on the landlord if they are unable to vacate business premises due to COVID- 19. Landlords are currently statutorily not allowed to terminate
Cap on late payment interest of charges for specific contracts.
Source: CBRE Research, MAS, MinLaw, MOF, MTI
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
LIMITED FUTURE SUPPLY (ISLANDWIDE)
Note: Numbers include additional space carved out during AEI and if the development is closed entirely the total new NLA of enhanced asset is included. Future supply tracks projects with NLA of 20,000 sf and more. Source: URA, CBRE Research
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 NLA (mil sq ft)
Completed Orchard Downtown Core Rest of Central Fringe Outside Central Region
5-Yr Avg: 1.67 mil 4-Yr Avg: 0.32 mil
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
PRIME RENTAL PROJECTION (ISLANDWIDE)
$22.00 $23.00 $24.00 $25.00 $26.00 $27.00 $28.00 $29.00 $30.00 $31.00 $32.00 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 End 2020 (F) End 2021 (F) End 2022 (F) End 2023 (F) $ psf/mth Growth Y-O-Y End 2019 0.0% End 2020 (F)
End 2021 (F) 3.0% End 2022 (F) 3.1%
Source: CBRE Research
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
INDUSTRIAL MARKET SUMMARY
Source: CBRE Research
Singapore’s manufacturing sector supported by biomedical
Various indicators including GDP, manufacturing output, NODX and PMI boosted by the biomedical segment
Singapore’s manufacturing sector supported by biomedical
Various indicators including GDP, manufacturing output, NODX and PMI boosted by the biomedical segment
Pick-up in leasing activity, especially prime logistics
Demand for warehouse space on the rise, spurred on by e-commerce and food stockpiling
Pick-up in leasing activity, especially prime logistics
Demand for warehouse space on the rise, spurred on by e-commerce and food stockpiling
Tightening future supply
Upcoming stock continues to abate from previous years, warehouse pipeline especially limited
Tightening future supply
Upcoming stock continues to abate from previous years, warehouse pipeline especially limited
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
BIOMEDICAL A BRIGHT SPOT
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Manufacturing Output (% y-o-y) 3-mth moving avg NODX (%)
Oxford Economics Forecast (Y-o-Y) Manufacturing Output NODX 2020F
COVID-19
Source: Department of Statistics Singapore, CBRE Research
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
RECOVERY IN SENTIMENTS, BUT STILL IN CONTRACTION
Source: Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management, CBRE Research
48.0 47.6 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Singapore Purchasing Managers' Index Electronics Purchasing Managers' Index Baseline COVID-19 EXPANSION CONTRACTION
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
BREAKDOWN OF INDUSTRIAL STOCK
Source: JTC Corporation, CBRE Research Factory (Single-user) 51% Factory (Multiple- user) 23% Warehouse 22% Business Park 4%
Total Stock 536.39 mil sf
At End of Total Stock Factory Total Stock Warehouse Total Stock Business Park Y-o-Y growth (%)
2015 362.27 95.64 20.63 3.8 2016 373.21 101.93 23.04 4.1 2017 383.72 112.30 23.05 4.2 2018 386.46 114.96 23.52 1.1 2019 392.37 118.20 23.68 1.8 Q1 2020 394.01 118.72 23.65 0.4%*
Type (mil sf gross) Factory Warehouse Business Park Total Total under Construction
29.45 8.11 4.57 42.13
Total Planned
10.67 0.53 0.29 11.49
Total* 40.13 8.63 4.87 53.63
Distribution of Industrial Stock by Ownership Total Industrial Stock Future Industrial Supply (Q2 2020 onwards)
Annual supply takes into account new completions, demolitions and change of use. NFA stated is measured in mil sf. *Percentage change relative to Q4 2019 *Total figures may not add up due to rounding.
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
QUARTERLY COCKTAIL STATS
Source: JTC Corporation, CBRE Research RENTS Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q-O-Q CHANGE Factory (Ground) $1.57 $1.57
$1.52 $1.50
Factory (Upper) $1.23 $1.23
$1.19 $1.18
Warehouse (Ground) $1.58 $1.58
$1.55 $1.56
0.8% Warehouse (Upper) $1.20 $1.20
$1.18 $1.19
0.8% MARKET OCCUPANCY (Q3 19) OCCUPANCY (Q4 19) OCCUPANCY (Q1 20) OCCUPANCY (Q2 20) TOTAL STOCK (‘000 SF) Islandwide (Factory + Warehouse) 89.5% 89.4% 89.3%
89.6%
513,815 Single-User Factory 91.1% 90.8% 90.7%
91.1%
272,273 Multi-User Factory 87.1% 87.5% 87.9%
87.5%
122,527 Warehouse 88.1% 88.0% 87.5%
88.3%
119,015 ISLANDWIDE (FACTORY + WAREHOUSE) KEY INDICATORS NET SUPPLY (SF) NET ABSORPTION (SF) Q3 2019 3,799,000 3,120,000 Q4 2019 31,000
Q1 2020 2,164,000 1,630,000 Q2 2020 1,078,000 2,434,000 2020 YTD 3,242,000 4,065,000 5-Year Avg (2015-2019) 3,408,000 2,610,000 10-Year Avg (2010-2019) 3,169,000 2,589,000
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
FACTORY DEMAND AND SUPPLY (EX. BIZ PARKS)
Q U ART E RLY
Source: JTC Corporation, CBRE Research
Note: Net supply takes into account new completion, demolitions and change of use. Net absorption measures the change in occupied stock.
87.5 88.0 88.5 89.0 89.5 90.0 90.5 91.0 91.5
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 Occupancy (%) NLA (mil sf) Net Supply Net Absorption Occupancy Rate
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
TIGHTENING FACTORY SUPPLY
Source: JTC Corporation, CBRE Research
8.31 3.97 6.02 0.65 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Net Supply (SU) Net Supply (MU) Future Supply
6.61 8.25 5.15
Average Demand (2010-2019) Average Supply (2010-2019) Average Future Supply (2020-2023)
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
WAREHOUSE DEMAND AND SUPPLY
Q U ART E RLY
Source: JTC Corporation, CBRE Research
Note: Net supply takes into account new completion, demolitions and change of use. Net absorption measures the change in occupied stock.
84.0 86.0 88.0 90.0 92.0 94.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 Occupancy (%) NLA (mil sf) Net Supply Net Absorption Occupancy Rate
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
LIMITED WAREHOUSE SUPPLY, MAJORITY FOR OWNER- OCCUPANTS
Source: JTC Corporation, CBRE Research
1.25 1.80 0.96 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Mil (sf)
Net supply (WH) Future Supply (WH)
4.42 3.74 1.78
Average Demand (2010-2019) Average Supply (2010-2019) Average Future Supply (2020-2023)
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
JTC INDUSTRIAL RENTAL INDEX
Source: JTC Corporation, CBRE Research *Relative to Q4 2019 As at end Index Y-o-Y % Change 2017 89.1
2018 89.0
2019 88.9 0.0% Q2 2020 88.1
As at end Index Y-o-Y % Change 2017 85.8
2018 85.0
2019 84.8
Q2 2020 84.4
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2009 Q2 2009 Q4 2010 Q2 2010 Q4 2011 Q2 2011 Q4 2012 Q2 2012 Q4 2013 Q2 2013 Q4 2014 Q2 2014 Q4 2015 Q2 2015 Q4 2016 Q2 2016 Q4 2017 Q2 2017 Q4 2018 Q2 2018 Q4 2019 Q2 2019 Q4 2020 Q2 Multiple-user Factory 2009 Q3: 70.0 2013 Q3: 105 +50.0% 2020 Q2: 88.1
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 2012 Q1 2012 Q3 2013 Q1 2013 Q3 2014 Q1 2014 Q3 2015 Q1 2015 Q3 2016 Q1 2016 Q3 2017 Q1 2017 Q3 2018 Q1 2018 Q3 2019 Q1 2019 Q3 2020 Q1 Multiple-user Warehouse 2009 Q4: 68.0 2013 Q4: 105.4 +55.0% 2020 Q2: 84.4
Multi-User Factory Rental Index Multi-User Warehouse Rental Index
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
RESIDENTIAL MARKET SUMMARY
Source: CBRE Research
Prices to further correct in H2 2020
In the midst of slower economic growth. Developers to be more flexible in pricing and amidst competition among projects
Prices to further correct in H2 2020
In the midst of slower economic growth. Developers to be more flexible in pricing and amidst competition among projects
Market still supported by underlying demand
Due to confidence in Singapore property market, low interest rates.
Market still supported by underlying demand
Due to confidence in Singapore property market, low interest rates.
Transactions dominated by units below $1.5m
Buyers motivated by project discounts and incentives.
Transactions dominated by units below $1.5m
Buyers motivated by project discounts and incentives.
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
RESIDENTIAL MARKET OVER TIME
Source: URA, CBRE Research
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 New Sale Resale URA Residential Price Index
Feb 2010 SSD introduced LTV lowered to 80% Aug 2010 SSD increased to 3y LTV lowered Jan 2011 SSD increased to 4y LTV lowered Dec 2011 ABSD introduced Oct 2012 Loan tenure capped LTV lowered Jan 2013 ABSD raised LTV lowered Jun 2013 TDSR capped at 60% Mar 2017 SSD reduced to 3y ACD introduced Jul 2018 ABSD raised LTV lowered COVID-19
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
COVID- 19 MEASURES
Project completion extended
will also be shifted.
Sale & Purchase
sale
Defer repayment of residential property loans
Reopening of show flats on 19 June 2020
Source: CBRE Research, MAS, MinLaw, MOF, MTI
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
PURCHASES BY FOREIGNERS & PRS
Source: URA, CBRE Research 20 40 60 80 100 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2
China Hong Kong Indonesia Malaysia 28.7% 27.0% 26.9% 24.4% 22.9% 22.6% 19.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 2020Q2 2020 Units Foreigners PRs Companies % bought by foreigners & PRs
% of Foreigners & PRs falling
Drop in Chinese purchasers (District 4, 9, 10, 11)
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
URA RESIDENTIAL PRICE INDEX
Source: URA, CBRE Research
Region (Q2 2020) Q-o-Q All 0.3% CCR 2.7% RCR
OCR 0.1%
100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 CCR RCR OCR
Prices increased by 0.3% q-o-q in Q2 2020, supported by resale transactions
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
DEVELOPER NEW HOME SALES
Source: URA, CBRE Research
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Units Newly Launched Newly Sold
2019 Launched: 11,345 Sold: 9,912 H1 2020 Launched: 3,945 Sold: 3,862
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
UNSOLD INVENTORY
Source: URA, CBRE Research 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q2 2020 Units CCR RCR OCR
Unsold inventory declined as take-up up still exceeded no. of units launched
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
NEW LAUNCHES
Source: URA, CBRE Research
10 20 30 40 50 60 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Launched Scheduled for launch
CCR, 43% OCR, 28% RCR, 29% CCR OCR RCR
Launches delayed to H2 2020 Where are the upcoming projects located? (by no. of units)
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
COMPLETION DATES PUSHED BACK
Source: URA, CBRE Research
1,459 12,932 14,878 16,265 3,556 628 1864 1121
8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 H1 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 >2024 Units Private Residential Units ECs
Increase of 2,116 units to be completed in 2021
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL DEMAND
Source: URA, CBRE Research
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1 2020 Units New Sales Resale Sub-sales
Residential demand dominated by new home sales (65%) in Q2 2020
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
QUANTUM PLAY (SMALLER SIZES)
Source: URA, CBRE Research
689 742 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2
Median Area (sf) Median Area
$2,330 $1,760 $1,489 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2
Median PSF ($)
Median Unit Price
$1,583,000 $1,334,000 $1,118,500 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2
Median Price ($)
Median Price
CCR RCR OCR
| SINGAPORE MARKET OVERVIEW | Q2 2020
QUANTUM PLAY (SMALLER QUANTUM)
Source: URA, CBRE Research
CCR RCR OCR
Smaller quantum um observed even for CCR new projects