Second Quarter 2017 Results
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July 20, 2017
Second Quarter 2017 Results July 20, 2017 1 Long-Term Financial - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Second Quarter 2017 Results July 20, 2017 1 Long-Term Financial Strategy Generation of Balanced approach Meaningful and top tier earnings to rightsizing sustainable and capital capital and competitive substantially in growing book
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July 20, 2017
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Travelers Reports Second Quarter Net Income and Core Income per Diluted Share of $2.11 and $1.92, Respectively, Including Catastrophe Losses of $0.93 per Diluted Share Return on Equity and Core Return on Equity of 10.0% and 9.5%, Respectively
and non-catastrophe weather-related losses.
returns.
share repurchases.
from year-end 2016.
4 ($ in millions, except per share amounts, after-tax)
1 A benefit to the combined ratio is indicated as a positive item, and a charge is indicated as a negative item.
SECOND QUARTER
Core income
$ 543 $ 649 (16) % $ 1,157 $ 1,347 (14) % per diluted share $ 1.92 2.20 (13) % $ 4.08 $ 4.52 (10) %
Net favorable prior year reserve development
$ 132 $ 192 $ 176 $ 311
Catastrophes, net of reinsurance
(262) (222) (488) (429)
Total items
$ (130) $ (30) $ (312) $ (118) Loss and loss adjustment ratio 65.6 % 61.1 % 65.5 % 61.1 % Underwriting expense ratio 31.1 32.0 30.9 31.6
Combined ratio 1
96.7 % 93.1 % (3.6) pts 96.4 % 92.7 % (3.7) pts
Net favorable prior year reserve development
3.2 4.7 2.3 3.9
Catastrophes, net of reinsurance
(6.4) (5.5) (6.0) (5.4) x
Underlying combined ratio
93.5 % 92.3 % (1.2) pts 92.7 % 91.2 % (1.5) pts
Net Written Premiums
$ 6,640 $ 6,345 5 % $ 13,135 $ 12,511 5 % Included the following items:
Change 2017 2016 Change 2017 2016
YEAR-TO-DATE
June 30, December 31,
Debt $ 6,920 $ 6,437 Common equity 1 22,823 22,491 Total capital 1 $ 29,743 $ 28,928 Debt-to-capital 1 23.3% 22.3% Common shares
275.9 279.6 Book value per common share $ 86.46 $ 83.05 Adjusted book value per common share 1 $ 82.71 $ 80.44 Tangible book value per common share 1, 2 $ 68.99 $ 66.91 Statutory capital and surplus $ 20,607 $ 20,759 Holding company liquidity $ 2,553 $ 1,677
2017 2016
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Capital
2017 at a total cost of $475 million.
Leverage
range.
$450 million
$500 million
$500 million
Very high quality investment portfolio
($1.035 billion after-tax) at June 30, 2017.
1 Excludes net unrealized investment gains, net of tax 2 Excludes the after-tax value of goodwill and other intangible assets
($ and shares in millions, except per share amounts)
Second Quarter 2017 Commentary
portfolio declined modestly from the prior year quarter due to lower reinvestment rates as expected
low, have improved due to recent interest rate increases
increased from the prior year quarter due to higher private equity returns
($ in millions)
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1 2015 and 2016 data represent quarterly average 2 Excludes investment expenses
$476 $462 $439 $442 $472 $493 $480 $468
2015 2016 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16 1Q'17 2Q'17
TOTAL
2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6%
$428 $409 $412 $410 $409 $405 $395 $390
2015 2016 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16 1Q'17 2Q'17
FIXED INCOME2
Total 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% Short-term 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% Long-term 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% Long-term Short-term
$55 $59 $33 $38 $69 $96 $92 $84
2015 2016 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16 1Q'17 2Q'17
NON-FIXED INCOME2
4.1% 4.5% 2.5% 2.9% 5.3% 7.4% 7.1% 6.4%
After-tax yield After-tax yield After-tax yield 1 1 1 1 1 1
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From Jan. 1, 2005 through June 30, 2017, TRV’s average annual core ROE was approximately 13.3% 13.0% 13.3% 12.0% 10.2%
Long-term fixed net investment portfolio investment income less holding company interest expense Non-fixed net investment portfolio investment income Underwriting gain and other Short-term fixed net investment portfolio investment income
2012
Full Year
2013
8.1%
1.6% 9.4%
1.3%
2014
7.0%
7.3% 1.3%
8.5% 8.4%
1.2% 6.9%
7.1%
2015 2016
7.4% 7.8%
1.5% 6.5%
2016 2017
Year-to-Date
6.8% 5.2%
0.5% 6.2%
7.2% 6.1%
1.4% 5.8% 8.3% 0.8%
3.6% 9.4%
2005 through 2011
0.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 6.2%
7.3% 2.9%
0.1% 0.1%
11.0% 15.5% 15.5% 15.2 %
0.1%
Segment income
$ 429 $ 401 7 % $ 871 $ 848 3 %
Loss and loss adjustment ratio
64.3 % 63.7 % 64.4 % 63.5 %
Underwriting expense ratio
32.2 32.8 32.1 32.3
Combined ratio 1
96.5 % 96.5 %
96.5 % 95.8 % (0.7) pts
Net favorable prior year reserve development
3.6 3.6 2.7 2.9
Catastrophes, net of reinsurance
(5.3) (4.8) (4.6) (4.6)
Underlying combined ratio
94.8 % 95.3 % 0.5 pts 94.6 % 94.1 % (0.5) pts
Net written premiums
Domestic Select Accounts
$ 720 $ 709 2 % $ 1,475 $ 1,433 3 %
Middle Market
1,820 1,741 5 3,997 3,804 5
National Accounts
219 234 (6) 507 554 (8)
National Property and Other
496 521 (5) 882 931 (5)
Total Domestic
3,255 3,205 2 6,861 6,722 2
International
289 267 8 538 510 5
Total Business Insurance
$ 3,544 $ 3,472 2 % $ 7,399 $ 7,232 2 %
Change excluding the impact of changes in foreign exchange rates
2 % 3 %
Change 2016 2017 2017 2016 Change 8 ($ in millions)
1 A benefit to the combined ratio is indicated as a positive item, and a charge is indicated as a negative item.
SECOND QUARTER YEAR-TO-DATE
(0.1%) 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
(2%)
4% 6% 8% 10% 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16 1Q'17 2Q'17
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($ in millions) Renewal Rate Change2 % Exposure/Other % Renewal Premium Change1 %
Retention 86% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% Renewal premium change1 1.6% 1.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6% 3.5% New business $554 $496 $409 $415 $518 $491
2Q’17
ILLUSTRATIVE BUSINESS STATISTICS
1 Represents the estimated change in average premium on policies that renew, including rate and exposure changes. 2 Represents the estimated change in average premium on policies that renew, excluding exposure changes.
Note: Statistics are in part dependent on the use of estimates and are therefore subject to change.
1.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6%
(2%)
4% 6% 8% 10% 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16 1Q'17 2Q'17
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($ in millions) Renewal Rate Change2 % Exposure/Other % Renewal Premium Change1 %
Retention 82% 82% 83% 83% 84% 83% Renewal premium change1 6.4% 5.8% 5.5% 5.3% 4.7% 4.9% New business $102 $99 $94 $92 $121 $109
ILLUSTRATIVE BUSINESS STATISTICS
2Q’17
1 Represents the estimated change in average premium on policies that renew, including rate and exposure changes. 2 Represents the estimated change in average premium on policies that renew, excluding exposure changes.
Note: Statistics are in part dependent on the use of estimates and are therefore subject to change.
(0.5%) 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9%
(2%)
4% 6% 8% 10% 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16 1Q'17 2Q'17
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($ in millions) Renewal Rate Change2 % Exposure/Other % Renewal Premium Change1 %
Retention 88% 87% 87% 87% 88% 88% Renewal premium change1 0.6% 0.5% 1.9% 2.0% 2.3% 3.4% New business $360 $304 $239 $254 $319 $294
ILLUSTRATIVE BUSINESS STATISTICS
2Q’17
1 Represents the estimated change in average premium on policies that renew, including rate and exposure changes. 2 Represents the estimated change in average premium on policies that renew, excluding exposure changes.
Note: Statistics are in part dependent on the use of estimates and are therefore subject to change.
12 ($ in millions)
1 A benefit to the combined ratio is indicated as a positive item, and a charge is indicated as a negative item.
Segment income
$ 163 $ 215 (24) % $ 308 $ 375 (18) %
Loss and loss adjustment ratio
29.7 % 16.2 % 35.1 % 24.1 %
Underwriting expense ratio
39.0 38.3 38.9 38.0
Combined ratio 1
68.7 % 54.5 % (14.2) pts 74.0 % 62.1 % (11.9) pts
Net favorable prior year reserve development
13.5 28.4 8.2 20.2
Catastrophes, net of reinsurance
(0.2) (0.5) (0.2) (0.3)
Underlying combined ratio
82.0 % 82.4 % 0.4 pts 82.0 % 82.0 %
Net written premiums
Domestic Management Liability
$ 341 $ 331 3 % $ 671 $ 656 2 %
Surety
211 205 3 385 372 3
Total Domestic
552 536 3 1,056 1,028 3
International
46 34 35 86 64 34
Total Bond & Specialty Insurance
$ 598 $ 570 5 % $ 1,142 $ 1,092 5 %
Change 2016 2017 2017 2016 Change
SECOND QUARTER YEAR-TO-DATE
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2016 2017 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q Management Liability 1 Retention 86% 87% 87% 88% 88% 88% Renewal premium change 2 3.3% 3.6% 3.3% 1.3% 4.0% 3.8% New business $47 $48 $49 $41 $45 $49
ILLUSTRATIVE BUSINESS STATISTICS
1 Domestic only, excludes the surety line of business as surety products are generally sold on a non-recurring, project specific basis. 2 Represents the estimated change in average premium on policies that renew, including rate and exposure changes.
Note: Statistics are in part dependent on the use of estimates and are therefore subject to change.
14 ($ in millions)
1 A benefit to the combined ratio is indicated as a positive item, and a charge is indicated as a negative item. 2 Represents business sold through agents, brokers and other intermediaries, and excludes direct to consumer.
Segment income
$ 12 $ 95 (87) % $ 101 $ 247 (59) %
Loss and loss adjustment ratio
76.8 % 68.9 % 74.9 % 67.2 %
Underwriting expense ratio
27.3 28.9 27.0 28.6
Combined ratio 1
104.1 % 97.8 % (6.3) pts 101.9 % 95.8 % (6.1) pts
Net favorable prior year reserve development
0.2 1.1
Catastrophes, net of reinsurance
(9.6) (7.8) (9.7) (8.2)
Underlying combined ratio
94.5 % 90.2 % (4.3) pts 92.4 % 88.7 % (3.7) pts
Net written premiums
Domestic Agency 2 Automobile
$ 1,159 $ 1,018 14
%
$ 2,246 $ 1,950 15
%
Homeowners and Other
1,077 1,036 4 1,871 1,796 4
Total Agency
2,236 2,054 9 4,117 3,746 10
Direct-to-Consumer
88 75 17 171 143 20
Total Domestic
2,324 2,129 9 4,288 3,889 10
International
174 174
298 3
Total Personal Insurance
$ 2,498 $ 2,303 8 % $ 4,594 $ 4,187 10 %
Change excluding the impact of changes in
9 % 10 %
foreign exchange rates Change 2016 2017 2017 2016 Change
SECOND QUARTER YEAR-TO-DATE
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1 Represents business sold through agents, brokers and other intermediaries, and excludes direct to consumer and international. 2 A benefit to the combined ratio is indicated as a positive item, and a charge is indicated as a negative item.
Agency Automobile 1
Loss and loss adjustment ratio
82.2 % 75.9 % 79.8 % 73.2 %
Underwriting expense ratio
24.2 25.4 24.0 25.1
Combined ratio 2
106.4 % 101.3 % (5.1) pts 103.8 % 98.3 % (5.5) pts
Net favorable prior year reserve development
Catastrophes, net of reinsurance
(4.0) (2.7) (3.3) (2.4)
Underlying combined ratio
102.4 % 98.6 % (3.8) pts 100.5 % 96.3 % (4.2) pts
Impact of re-estimation on 2Q 2016 and 2Q YTD 2016, respectively, that
3.4 3.3
Underlying combined ratio including re-estimations
102.4 % 102.0 % (0.4) pts 100.5 % 99.6 % (0.9) pts
Agency Homeowners & Other 1
Loss and loss adjustment ratio
71.9 % 58.4 % 70.5 % 60.6 %
Underwriting expense ratio
28.4 29.5 28.0 28.6
Combined ratio 2
100.3 % 87.9 % (12.4) pts 98.5 % 89.2 % (9.3) pts
Net favorable prior year reserve development
Catastrophes, net of reinsurance
(17.5) (9.7) (18.3) (12.9)
Underlying combined ratio
82.8 % 78.2 % (4.6) pts 80.2 % 77.2 % (3.0) pts
Change 2017 2016 Change 2017 2016
SECOND QUARTER YEAR-TO-DATE
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1 Represents business sold through agents, brokers and other intermediaries, and excludes direct to consumer and international. 2 The ratio of expected number of renewal policies that will be retained throughout the annual policy period to the number of available renewal base policies. 3 Represents the estimated change in average premium on policies that renew, including rate and exposure changes.
Note: Statistics are in part dependent on the use of estimates and are therefore subject to change.
2016 2017 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q Agency Automobile 1 Retention 2 86% 87% 87% 87% 86% 85% Renewal premium change 3 4.6% 5.1% 5.7% 5.9% 6.2% 7.7% Policies in force (in thousands) 2,212 2,275 2,350 2,428 2,482 2,514
3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1%
9% 11% 12% 13% 12% 11% New business $215 $231 $259 $260 $244 $225 Agency Homeowners & Other 1 Retention 2 86% 86% 86% 87% 86% 86% Renewal premium change 3 2.9% 3.2% 3.5% 3.4% 2.7% 2.8% Policies in force (in thousands) 4,068 4,117 4,146 4,174 4,222 4,283
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
1% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% New business $101 $133 $135 $115 $118 $151
($ in millions)
ILLUSTRATIVE BUSINESS STATISTICS
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2016 2017 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q International 1 Retention 83% 80% 82% 83% 85% 83% Renewal premium change 2 (1.4%) (0.9%) (0.6%) 2.0% (0.1%) 2.3% New business $77 $109 $87 $90 $86 $86
1 Excludes the surety line of business as surety products are generally sold on a non-recurring, project specific basis. 2 Represents the estimated change in average premium on policies that renew, including rate and exposure changes.
Note: Statistics are in part dependent on the use of estimates and are therefore subject to change.
ILLUSTRATIVE BUSINESS STATISTICS
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Additional Information Additional Information
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For further information regarding these additional agreements, see the “Catastrophe Reinsurance” section of “Part 1 – Item 1 – Business” in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016 and in the “Catastrophe Reinsurance Coverage” section of Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations in the Company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2017, in each case, as updated by our subsequent periodic filings with the SEC.
Catastrophe Bonds - Long Point Re III Ltd.
̵ The attachment point and maximum limit were reset as required annually to adjust the expected loss of the layer within a predetermined range. For the period May 16, 2017 through and including May 15, 2018, the Company will be entitled to begin recovering amounts under this reinsurance agreement if the covered losses in the covered area for a single occurrence reach an initial attachment amount of $2.346 billion. The full $300 million coverage amount is available on a proportional basis until such covered losses reach a maximum $2.846 billion. Northeast Property Catastrophe Excess-of-Loss Reinsurance Treaty – renewed effective July 1, 2017 $800 million part of $850 million of coverage, subject to a $2.25 billion retention, for certain losses arising from hurricanes, tornados, hail storms, earthquakes and winter storm or freeze losses from Virginia to Maine for the period July 1, 2017 through and including June 30,
and waters contiguous thereto may be used to satisfy the retention. Recoveries under the catastrophe bond (if any) would be first applied to reduce losses subject to this treaty.
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This presentation contains, and management may make, certain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, may be forward-looking statements. Words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “likely,” “anticipates,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “projects,” “believes,” “estimates” and similar expressions are used to identify these forward-looking statements. These statements are likely to relate to, among
investment income and performance, loss costs, return on equity, core return on equity and expected current returns and combined ratios), our share repurchase plans, future pension plan contributions, the sufficiency of our reserves, the impact of emerging claim issues and litigation, the cost and availability of reinsurance coverage, catastrophe losses, the impact of investment, economic and underwriting conditions, our strategic initiatives and the potential closing date and impact of our acquisition of Simply Business. We caution investors that such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the Company’s control, that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ include, but are not limited to, the following:
which the Company operates;
United Kingdom from the European Union;
For a more detailed discussion of these factors, see the information under "Risk Factors" and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in our most recent Form 10-K, as updated by our periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), which are accessible on the SEC’s website (www.sec.gov). Our forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation or as of the date they are made, and we undertake no obligation to update those statements.
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In this presentation, we may refer to some non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measures and a glossary of financial measures, we refer you to the press release and financial supplement that we have made available in connection with this presentation and our most recent annual report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as updated by our subsequent periodic filings with the SEC. See the “For Investors” section at Travelers.com. For further information, please see Travelers reports filed with the SEC pursuant to the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 which are available at the SEC’s website (www.sec.gov). Copies of this presentation and the accompanying webcast are publicly available on the Travelers website (www.travelers.com). This presentation should be read with the accompanying webcast and related press release and financial supplement. Travelers may use its website and/or social media outlets, such as Facebook and Twitter, as distribution channels of material company information. Financial and other important information regarding the company is routinely accessible through and posted on our website at http://investor.travelers.com, our Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/travelers and our Twitter account (@Travelers) at https://twitter.com/Travelers. In addition, you may automatically receive email alerts and other information about Travelers when you enroll your email address by visiting the Email Notification section at http://investor.travelers.com.