SCOSTEP Next Scientific Program Committee Ioannis A. Daglis, chair (University of Athens, Greece) • • Loren Chang (National Central University, Taiwan) • Sergio Dasso (University of Buenos Aires, Argentina) • Olga Khabarova (IZMIRAN, Russia) Emilia Kilpua (University of Helsinki, Finland) • • Daniel Marsh (NCAR, USA) • Katja Matthes (University of Kiel, Germany) • Dibyendu Nandi (IISER Kolkata, India) Annika Seppälä (University of Otago, New Zealand) • • Rémi Thiéblemont (Univ. Pierre et Marie Curie, France) • Qiugang Zong (Beijing University, China)
SCOSTEP Next Scientific Program 2019-2024 - Drafted by 11-member committee (Argentina, China, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, India, New Zealand, Russia, Taiwan, USA) - followed by open public consultation - and by two ISSI Workshops (Beijing and Bern) with 22 additional participants
Choice of predictability theme as a unifying concept for coordinating research and outreach activities PreSTo : Pre dictability of the variable S olar- T errestrial C o upling PreSTo: Predictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial Coupling
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PRESTO - Predictability Major motivation: conduct fundamental research that has the prospect to advance predictive capability (societal implications) PreSTo: Predictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial Coupling
Predictability - timely scientific topic - combines the interests of different topical communities PreSTo: Predictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial Coupling
Solar wind, CIR n o & CME i t Geomagnetic storms p u r E & substorms r a l o S High-energy EM Radiation particles Orbit change Satellite anomaly Plasma Ionospheric bubbles disturbances aurora Radio GNSS positioning communication Geomagnetically Atmospheric induced currents waves Climate change
An integrated view of solar-terrestrial coupling Solar-terrestrial phenomena in various spatial & temporal scales MOC Centuries Solar cycle Space Climate Climate change Surface flux PDO evolution Decades Irradiance ENSO QBO Seasons SAO Annular Modes Cosmic rays At Atmosp spheric Che Chemi mistry MJO Weeks SSWs Solar wind Geomagnetic storms Formation and ICMEs/CIRs Weather Days evolution of Radiation belt extreme systems eruptive structures enhancements Tides Solar energetic Hours SEP storms particles TIDs Minutes Gravity waves Solar eruptions Scintillation M G I M S S S S T O o a e H t o o I L r o n c n o r g o e T l l l o a e n a a a n s p l s t a i e r r r e p o o o p n r I C t a s S s s h n o c p u p p o t s e e e r h h h r p r f r o e e e e a h i n r r r o c e e e e a r e r e Pr PreSTo: P : Predic ictabilit ility o of t f the v varia iable le S Sola lar-Te Terrestrial Coupling
3 pillars PreSTo: Predictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial Coupling
3 pillars 1. Sun, interplanetary space and geospace PreSTo: Predictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial Coupling
3 pillars 1. Sun, interplanetary space and geospace 2. Space weather and Earth’s atmosphere PreSTo: Predictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial Coupling
3 pillars 1. Sun, interplanetary space and geospace 2. Space weather and Earth’s atmosphere 3. Solar activity and its influence on Earth’s climate PreSTo: Predictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial Coupling
3 pillars - 12 grand challenge questions 1. Sun, interplanetary space and geospace 2. Space weather and Earth’s atmosphere 3. Solar activity and its influence on Earth’s climate PreSTo: Predictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial Coupling
3 pillars - 12 grand challenge questions Pillar 1 Sun, interplanetary space and geospace PreSTo: Predictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial Coupling
Pillar 1: Sun, interplanetary space & geospace 1.1. Conditions of solar eruptions genesis and reliable indicators of their inception 1.2. Model input parameters for successfully forecasting the arrival of SEPs and the geoeffectiveness of CMEs, SIRs/CIRs 1.3. How are magnetospheric disturbances and waves driven by variable solar wind structures, and internal magnetospheric processes? 1.4. Predictability of storms, substorms and radiation hazards PreSTo: Predictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial Coupling
Pillar 1: Sun, interplanetary space & geospace 1.1. Conditions of solar eruptions genesis and reliable indicators of their inception 1.2. Model input parameters for successfully forecasting the arrival of SEPs and the geoeffectiveness of CMEs, SIRs/CIRs 1.3. How are magnetospheric disturbances and waves driven by variable solar wind structures, and internal magnetospheric processes? 1.4. Predictability of storms, substorms and radiation hazards PreSTo: Predictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial Coupling
Pillar 1: Sun, interplanetary space & geospace 1.1. Conditions of solar eruptions genesis and reliable indicators of their inception 1.2. Model input parameters for successfully forecasting the arrival of SEPs and the geoeffectiveness of CMEs, SIRs/CIRs 1.3. How are magnetospheric disturbances and waves driven by variable solar wind structures and internal magnetospheric processes? 1.4. Predictability of storms, substorms and radiation hazards PreSTo: Predictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial Coupling
Pillar 1: Sun, interplanetary space & geospace 1.1. Conditions of solar eruptions genesis and reliable indicators of their inception 1.2. Model input parameters for successfully forecasting the arrival of SEPs and the geoeffectiveness of CMEs, SIRs/CIRs 1.3. How are magnetospheric disturbances and waves driven by variable solar wind structures and internal magnetospheric processes? 1.4. Predictability of storms, substorms and radiation hazards PreSTo: Predictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial Coupling
3 pillars - 12 grand challenge questions Pillar 2 Space weather and Earth’s atmosphere PreSTo: Predictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial Coupling
1.1. Response of thermosphere /ionosphere to forcing from above and from below Pillar 2: Space 1.2. Impact of atmospheric weather and waves and composition changes Earth’s on middle and upper atmosphere atmosphere 1.3. Magnitude and spectral characteristics of solar and magnetospheric forcing, needed for accurate predictions of the atmospheric response 1.4. Chemical and dynamical response of the middle atmosphere to solar and magnetospheric forcing
1.1. Response of thermosphere /ionosphere to forcing from above and from below 1.2. Impact of atmospheric waves and composition changes on middle and upper Pillar 2: Space atmosphere weather and 1.3. Magnitude and spectral Earth’s characteristics of solar and magnetospheric forcing, needed atmosphere for accurate predictions of the atmospheric response 1.4. Chemical and dynamical response of the middle atmosphere to solar and magnetospheric forcing
1.1. Response of thermosphere /ionosphere to forcing from above and from below 1.2. Impact of atmospheric waves and composition changes on middle and upper atmosphere 1.3. Magnitude and spectral characteristics of solar and Pillar 2: Space magnetospheric forcing, needed weather and for accurate predictions of the Earth’s atmospheric response atmosphere 1.4. Chemical and dynamical response of the middle atmosphere to solar and magnetospheric forcing
1.1. Response of thermosphere /ionosphere to forcing from above and from below 1.2. Impact of atmospheric waves and composition changes on middle and upper atmosphere 1.3. Magnitude and spectral characteristics of solar and magnetospheric forcing, needed Pillar 2: Space for accurate predictions of the weather and atmospheric response Earth’s 1.4. Chemical and dynamical atmosphere response of the middle atmosphere to solar and magnetospheric forcing
3 pillars - 12 grand challenge questions Pillar 3 Solar activity and its influence on Earth’s climate PreSTo: Predictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial Coupling
3 pillars - 12 grand challenge questions Pillar 3 Solar climate and its influence on Earth’s climate PreSTo: Predictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial Coupling
Solar dynamo Interplanetary space Magnetospheric Solar energetic Magnetosphere particles particles Total solar irradiance (TSI) Energetic particle Ionosphere UV emission precipitation Thermosphere HOx Mesosphere Chemical- Ozone NOx dynamical Temperature coupling Stratosphere Dynamical coupling Atmospheric Anthropogenic Troposphere oscillations effects Sea surface temperature variability Modified from Gray et al. (2010)
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