F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 4
RWC Enhanced Income Fund
For Professional Investors and Advisers Only
RWC Enhanced Income Fund F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 4 RWC Yields are - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
For Professional Investors and Advisers Only RWC Enhanced Income Fund F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 4 RWC Yields are low across all asset classes 8 7 6 5 Yield (%) 4 3 RPI, 2.6% 2 1 0 Base Rates UK 2 Year Barclays Capital UK 10 Year
F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 4
For Professional Investors and Advisers Only
RWC 2
Source: Bloomberg, December 2013
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Base Rates UK 2 Year Barclays Capital IG Corporate Bond Index UK 10 Year FTSE 350 Dividend Yield UK 30 Year RWC Enhanced Income Yield (%) RPI, 2.6%
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Source: Bloomberg, December 2013
3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 FTSE 100
2013
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RWC 5
RWC 6
Source, RWC
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RWC 10
Source: RWC, 2012, company report and accounts *Dividends reinvested in stock
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Source: Bloomberg, company report and accounts
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e EPS (LHS) DPS (LHS) P/E (RHS) Share Price rebased (RHS)
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7% 10% 4% 6% 21% 8% 7% 2% 2% 4% 0.3% 20% 3% 3% 0.6%
Source: RWC, December 2013. Stock position less than 2% excluded
Technology Microsoft 2% Food & Beverage Unilever 2% Other Financials Close Brothers 2% Insurance Legal and General 3% RSA Insurance 2% Energy Royal Dutch Shell 4% BP 4% Pharmaceuticals GlaxoSmithKline 5% Astra Zeneca 5% Merck & Co 3% Pfizer 3% Eli Lilly 2% J&J 2% Swaptions Cash Industrials Smiths Group 3% Media B Sky B 4% Reed Elsevier 3% Telecoms Vodafone 5% Deutsche Telecom 4% Retailers Next 4% Food Retailers Tesco 3% Wal-Mart 2% Index Put Options Utilities Centrica 3%
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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Year to end December 2013 - drawdown*
RWC Enhanced Income FTSE All-Share
0% 5% 10% 15% 2012 2012 - drawdown*
RWC Enhanced Income Fund FTSE All Share
Source: Bloomberg, RWC * Refers to periods 19th March 2012 to 1st June 2012 and 21st May to 24th June 2013 ** Average 30 day volatility for January 2012 to end of December 2013 Equity index used is FTSE All share (TR)
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% RWC Enhanced Income FTSE All-Share
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Source: RWC/Bloomberg, December 2013 RWC Enhanced Income Fund volatility calculated on non-swing adjusted unit prices
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Jan12 Mar12 May12 Jul12 Sep12 Nov12 Jan13 Mar13 May13 Jul13 Sep13 Nov13
RWC Enhanced Income Fund FTSE All Share Index BBG Global HY Corp Bond Index
RWC 15 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13
Pharmaceuticals Retail Integrated Oil VIX Index
Source, RWC, Bloomberg
Roll 27 106% 18 24 Roll 28 106% 16 22 Roll 29 106% 15 24 Roll 30 106% 12 22 Roll 31 106% 5 23 Roll 32 107% 9 24 Roll 33 107% 8 24 Roll 34 107% 2 26 Roll 35 109% 8 26 Roll 36 108% 2 21 Roll 37 108% 10 24 Roll 38 108% 13 26 Roll 39 107% 8 25 Roll 40 108% 25 Roll 41 108% 24 Roll 42 107% 25 Roll 43 109% 25
RWC 16 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13
Covered Portfolio Uncovered Portfolio
Sep-11 81.9 1.66 1.75% Dec-11 84.5 1.48 1.81% Mar-12 87.7 1.50 1.78% Jun-12 86.4 2.06 2.35% Sept-12 87.3 1.43 1.67% Dec-12 87.3 1.37 1.57% Mar-13 92.7 1.20 1.37% Jun-13 91.2 2.10 2.27% Sep-13 90.6 1.45 1.59% Dec-13 92.0 1.36 1.50%
*The Yield is calculated as the summation of quarterly percentage distributions. Individual quarterly distributions are calculated based on the end of the previous quarters unit price. Source: RWC
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13.30% 1.40%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% CCC BBB BBB AAA AAA 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% FTSE Small Cap FTSE 250 FTSE 100
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
UK Equity Indices: 2013 Returns BAML Fixed Income Returns Global Equity Indices Total Return (USD) Best Performing Members on the FTSE 100 in 2013
59.3% 38.8% 32.4% 30.5% 26.1% 21.6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Japan (JPY) Russell 2000 US Japan Europe UK EM 117.2 100.7 100.6 90.5 85.0 78.3 72.1 65.9 64.6 64.2 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 International Consolidated Airlines Easyjet Hargreaves Lansdown ITV Sport Direct International Ashtead Group Travis Perkins Persimmon Lloyds Banking Group BT Group
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Source: Bank of England Financial Stability Report June 2013, Bank of England Financial Stability Report November 2013 Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Emerging Portfolio Fund Research Global, JP Morgan, EPFR
Corporate high-yield bond spreads 0.00 500.00 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 £ $ € Emerging markets NYSE Margin Debt Fixed-income volatility increased in the summer before falling close to historical lows US high-yield loan issuance reached record highs, with covenant-lite issues increasingly prevalent
100 200 300 400 500 600 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Other Covenant-lite volume
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
$m
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Source: Bloomberg
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 06-Nov-13 26-Nov-13 16-Dec-13 05-Jan-14 25-Jan-14
2014 P/E 100x 2014 P/E 100x 2014 Price to Sales 40x 2014 P/E 165x
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10 20 30 40 50 60
Greece Spain Italy Cyprus Portugal Slovak Republic Bulgaria Poland France Ireland Hungary Latvia EMU Sweden Romania Lithuania Belgium Slovenia UK Luxembourg Finland Czech Republic Estonia Malta Denmark Netherlands Austria Germany
100 115 130 145 160 175 190 205 220
US 2002 - 07 UK 2002 - 07 Japan 1985-90 Korea 1994 - 98 China 2007 - 12e
Non-Financial Debt/GDP (%)
t - 6 t - 5 t - 4 t - 3 t - 2 t - 1
Europe China Central Banks Debt levels in advance economies have risen Youth unemployment rate (%) using latest available data Five Credit Bubbles Comparison of central bank balance sheets – rebased to 100 May 2006 Debt-to-GDP ratios of selected advance economies
Source: Bloomberg, BOE, Fed, BOJ, ECB, US Congressional Office, Eurostat, Fitch , Bank of England Financial Stability Report, November 2013
100 200 300 400 500 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 BOE FED ECB SNB BOJ PBoC
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35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 1947 1955 1963 1971 1979 1987 1995 2003 2011
Source: Bloomberg, Societe Generale, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S *US non-financials
10 20 30 40 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Sales growth (%) EBIT growth (%)
US ratio of negative to positive EPS guidance – fastest pace of negative guidance EVER! Anaemic Sales and margins under pressure*
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 1947 1955 1963 1971 1979 1987 1995 2003 2011
Wage share of GDP Corporate Profit share of GDP
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Source: Bloomberg, Citi Research, Haver Analytics, MSCI, Societe Generale
90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14
MSCI World EPS 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MSCI World (LHS) CRB Index (RHS)
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Source: Bloomberg, Société Générale
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Same story in the UK
Total Debt Cash Net Debt
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Reality is that companies are using debt to produce EPS growth
Net share buybacks Change in debt 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
US corporates net debt is higher than 2008
Total Debt Cash Net Debt
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Source: Bloomberg, Robert Shiller, Societe Generale, Sanford Bernstein
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1881 1889 1898 1906 1914 1923 1931 1939 1948 1956 1964 1973 1981 1989 1998 2006 2014
Shiller C.A.P.E. 1881 - 2014
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Continetal Europe: Median Price-to-Cash Flow
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Continetal Europe: Median Dividend Yield
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
UK: Median Dividend Yield
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Source: Bloomberg
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Price BEst Standard EPS Adjusted+ 2013* A
Pepsico
P/E 19.1x, DY 2.7%
2013 % Change
Earnings: -1.8%, Price: +19.5%
4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Price BEst Standard EPS Adjusted+ 2014* A
Procter & Gamble
P/E 18.7x, DY 3.1%
2013 % Change
Earnings: -0.2%, Price: +15.7%
3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Price BEst Standard EPS Adjusted 2013* A
Nestle
P/E 18.5x, DY 3.4%
2013 % Change
Earnings: -5.4%, Price: +4.3% 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 5 10 15 20 25 Feb-09 Nov-09 Aug-10 May-11 Feb-12 Nov-12 Aug-13 Price BEst Standard EPS Adjusted+ 2014* A Diageo 2013 % Change Earnings; -9%, Price; +10% P/E 18x, DY 2.8%
RWC 28
Source: Bloomberg
0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 1.05 1.1 1.15 1.2 1.25 1.3 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Price BEst Standard EPS Adjusted+ 2013* A
Travis Perkins
P/E 16.4x, DY 1.8%
2013 % Change
Earnings: +0.5%, Price: +44.9%
0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.4 0.42 0.44 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Price BEst Standard EPS GAAP+ 2014* A
Marks and Spencer
P/E 15.3x, DY 3.5%
2013 % Change
Earnings: -9.6%, Price: +33.4%
0.2 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.3 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Price BEst Standard EPS GAAP+ 2014* A
Kingfisher
P/E 17.1x, DY 2.5%
2013 % Change
Earnings: -2.8%, Price: +41.4%
0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Price BEst Standard EPS GAAP 2013* A
Compass
P/E 18.2x, DY 2.8%
2013 % Change
Earnings: +1.3%, Price: +15.9%
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0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, Bank of England Financial Stability Report June 2013
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Source: Company accounts, Bloomberg, July 2013
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012
LGIM AuM (£bn)
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2006 2012
Annuities (£bn)
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2001 2005 2012
UK Protection Premiums (£m)
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cash Generated (£m)
Invested in new business Post tax operational cash flow
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
IGD Capital Surplus (£bn)
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Dividend per share (pence)
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Source: Company accounts, Bloomberg
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Sep-88 Sep-90 Sep-92 Sep-94 Sep-96 Sep-98 Sep-00 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Pence
Rio Tinto Share price
2 4 6 8 10 12 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 $ £
Rio Tinto Earnings Estimates
Price BEst Standard EPS Adjusted+ 2013* A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 FY2012 FY2011 FY2010 FY2009 FY2008 FY2007 FY2006 FY2005 FY2004 FY2003 FY2002 FY2001 FY2000 FY1999 FY1998 FY1997 FY1996 FY1995 $
Rio Tinto EPS
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 $bn
Global Mining Capital Expenditure
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RWC 35