risk: A UK perspective Current status of UK tidal industry - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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risk: A UK perspective Current status of UK tidal industry - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 31, 2023 145 likes •498 views

Marine mammals, tidal energy and collision risk: A UK perspective Current status of UK tidal industry Consenting decision making framework Deploy and Monitor Adaptive Management Carol Sparling EMEC: UK Tidal Industry

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SLIDE 1
  • Current status of UK tidal industry
  • Consenting decision making framework
  • Deploy and Monitor
  • Adaptive Management

Marine mammals, tidal energy and collision risk: A UK perspective Carol Sparling

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SLIDE 2
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SLIDE 3

EMEC:

  • Andritz Hydro Hammerfest
  • Alstom
  • Open Hydro
  • Scotrenewables Tidal Power
  • Voith Hydro

Strangford Lough

  • Marine Current Turbines
  • Minesto
  • Schottel

UK Tidal Industry

Deployed

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SLIDE 4

EMEC:

  • Andritz Hydro Hammerfest
  • Alstom
  • Open Hydro
  • Scotrenewables Tidal Power
  • Voith Hydro

Strangford Lough

  • Marine Current Turbines
  • Minesto
  • Schottel

Pentland Firth

  • Meygen

Sound of Islay

  • Scottish Power Renewables

UK Tidal Industry UK Tidal Industry

Deployed Consented

Anglesey Skerries

  • Marine Current Turbines

Ramsey Sound

  • Tidal Energy Limited
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SLIDE 5

EMEC:

  • Andritz Hydro Hammerfest
  • Alstom
  • Open Hydro
  • Scotrenewables Tidal Power
  • Voith Hydro

Strangford Lough

  • Marine Current Turbines
  • Minesto
  • Schottel

Pentland Firth

  • Meygen

Sound of Islay

  • Scottish Power Renewables

UK Tidal Industry UK Tidal Industry

Deployed Consented Pre-consent

Anglesey Skerries

  • Marine Current Turbines

Ramsey Sound

  • Tidal Energy Limited
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SLIDE 6

Marine mammals and collision risk:

# collisions Encounter probability Strike probability

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SLIDE 7

Marine mammals and collision risk:

# collisions Encounter probability Strike probability

Evasion Avoidance/ attraction Turbine characteristics Animal characteristics Depth distribution Spatial & temporal distribution

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SLIDE 8

Marine mammals and collision risk:

Encounter probability Strike probability

Evasion Turbine characteristics Animal characteristics

# deaths

Depth distribution Spatial & temporal distribution

Mortality probability

Tissue properties/part

  • f body

Speed of strike/part of rotor

# collisions

Avoidance/ attraction

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SLIDE 9

Marine mammals and collision risk: A framework

Encounter probability Strike probability

Evasion Turbine characteristics Animal characteristics Depth distribution Spatial & temporal distribution

Population consequences

Birth/death rates Population size/age structure

# collisions # deaths Mortality probability

Tissue properties/part

  • f body

Speed of strike/part of rotor Age/sex ~ collisions Density dependence? Avoidance/ attraction

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SLIDE 10

Avoidance/ attraction Age/sex ~ collisions Birth/death rates Population size/age structure

Marine mammals and collision risk: A framework…

Encounter probability Strike probability

Evasion Turbine characteristics Animal characteristics Depth distribution Spatial & temporal distribution

# collisions # deaths Mortality probability

Tissue properties/part

  • f body

Speed of strike/part of rotor

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

Population consequences

Density dependence?

?

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SLIDE 11

Marine mammals and collision risk: A UK perspective

Conservation legislation driving UK main consenting issues – EC Habitats Directive

  • Habitat Regulations Assessment (HRA)
  • European Protected Species (EPS)
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SLIDE 12

Marine mammals and collision risk: A UK perspective

Onus is on developers to demonstrate that their project will not have a likely significant effect on the features of a European protected site or on a population of a European Protected Species – difficult to prove a negative!

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SLIDE 13

Marine mammals and collision risk: A UK perspective

Uncertainty surrounding risk Can’t consent projects Can’t learn about risks

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SLIDE 14

DEPLOY and MONITOR with ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT

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SLIDE 15

Marine mammals and collision risk: A UK perspective

Operation under shutdown

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SLIDE 16

Marine mammals and collision risk: A framework…

Encounter probability Strike probability

Evasion Turbine characteristics Animal characteristics Depth distribution Spatial & temporal distribution

# collisions # deaths Mortality probability

Tissue properties/part

  • f body

Speed of strike/part of rotor

Population consequences

Birth/death rates Population size/age structure Age/sex ~ collisions Density dependence? Avoidance/ attraction

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SLIDE 17

Seal tracking in vicinity of operational tidal turbine

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SLIDE 18

Seal tracking in vicinity of operational tidal turbine

Macro avoidance?

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SLIDE 19

10 20 30 40 50 60

  • 25
  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

usage (%) depth (m)

Seal tracking in vicinity of operational tidal turbine

Depth distribution

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SLIDE 20

Licenced trial removal of mitigation with active acoustic monitoring

70m 40m Side view Plan view

  • Data on passage rates in the presence of an
  • perating turbine (compare these with previously

estimated –refine collision risk

  • Evidence for evasion/avoidance???
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SLIDE 21

Marine mammals and collision risk: A framework…

Encounter probability Strike probability

Evasion Turbine characteristics Animal characteristics Depth distribution Spatial & temporal distribution

# collisions # deaths Mortality probability

Tissue properties/part

  • f body

Speed of strike/part of rotor

Population consequences

Birth/death rates Population size/age structure Age/sex ~ collisions Density dependence? Avoidance/ attraction

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SLIDE 22

Near field monitoring at DeltaStream, Ramsey Sound, Wales (TEL project) Passive acoustics – 12 channel

hydrophone array for 3D tracking

  • f cetaceans
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SLIDE 23

Near field monitoring at DeltaStream, Ramsey Sound, Wales (TEL project) Passive acoustics – 12 channel

hydrophone array for 3D tracking

  • f cetaceans
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SLIDE 24

Near field monitoring at DeltaStream, Ramsey Sound (TEL project)

Active acoustic monitoring

MULTIBEAM SONAR on RAMP

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SLIDE 25
  • Develop and test sensor

technologies – PAM & AAM

  • Develop analytical tools – 3D PAM

tracking & AAM automatic detection, classification and tracking

  • Deployment at Meygen project

Pentland Firth

FLOWBEC PIC?

Scottish Government Demonstration Strategy Project

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SLIDE 26

Marine mammals and collision risk: A framework…

Encounter probability Strike probability

Evasion Turbine characteristics Animal characteristics Depth distribution Spatial & temporal distribution

# collisions # deaths Mortality probability

Tissue properties/part

  • f body

Speed of strike/part of rotor

Population consequences

Birth/death rates Population size/age structure Age/sex ~ collisions Density dependence? Avoidance/ attraction

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SLIDE 27

Understanding the consequences of collisions

  • PNNL strike modelling
  • SMRU carcass collision trials
  • X-Med EXtreme Loading of Marine Energy

Devices due to Waves, Current, Flotsam and Mammal Impact (Manchester Uni)

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SLIDE 28

Marine mammals and collision risk: A framework…

Encounter probability Strike probability

Evasion Turbine characteristics Animal characteristics Depth distribution Spatial & temporal distribution

# collisions # deaths Mortality probability

Tissue properties/part

  • f body

Speed of strike/part of rotor

Population consequences

Birth/death rates Population size/age structure Age/sex ~ collisions Density dependence? Avoidance/ attraction

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SLIDE 29

Understanding the population level consequences of collisions

  • PBR/threshold approach
  • Adapted PCoD model (PCoC)
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SLIDE 30

Marine mammals and collision risk: A framework…

Encounter probability Strike probability

Evasion Avoidance Turbine characteristics Animal characteristics Depth distribution Spatial & temporal distribution

# collisions # deaths Mortality probability

Tissue properties/part

  • f body

Speed of strike/part of rotor

Population consequences

Birth/death rates Population size/age structure Age/sex ~ collisions Density dependence?

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SLIDE 31

Verifying predictions…..

  • Collision-o-meter???
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SLIDE 32

Marine mammals and collision risk: UK lessons learned…

  • Site selection important to manage out risks
  • Deploy and monitor, and monitor and monitor:

de-risk at early stage of industry

  • Don’t be too quick to mitigate (but develop mitigation

approaches in parallel and be prepared to)

  • Design and integrate monitoring early
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SLIDE 33

Marine mammals and collision risk: UK lessons learned…

COLLABORATION IS KEY TO SUCCESFUL PROGRESS UNDER UNCERTAINTY

  • Developers, regulators, conservation agencies, academia

working together and learning together

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SLIDE 34

Thanks to…

Sea Mammal Research Unit Marine Current Turbines Tidal Energy Limited MeyGen Scottish Government Northern Ireland Dept of Environment Marine Division Natural Resources Wales Royal Haskoning DHV Department of Energy and Climate Change