Results from the RCN-project EUTROPIA EUTROPIA: Processes - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Results from the RCN-project EUTROPIA EUTROPIA: Processes governing leaching of Phosphorus fractions to surface waters Phosphorus fractions to surface waters and effects of changing environment O. Ryseth et al. D. Barton G. Orderud E.
Scientists are required to assess the original- and present state of the environment, and to predict future trends
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
45% of the anthropogenic P input to Norwegian surface water
P is mainly transported in the rivers adsorbed to clay particles P is mainly transported in the rivers adsorbed to clay particles (Particulate P) Natural background flux of P Mainly in the form of dissolved natural organic matter (DNOM-P)
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
Miljostatus.no
Sand or bare igneous rock
Marine clay sediments enriched in P in valley bottom
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
No clear effects
No apparent improvement Without the implemented measures the situation would likely been worse The processes that govern The processes that govern the P fluxes are influenced by several environmental pressures
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
p
Climate:
Increase in amount and intensity of precipitation and a 2ºC increase in the average winter temperature in the Oslo region Increased surface runoff causes enhanced soil erosion and Increased winter temperature causes more frequent freeze thawing cycles leading to frequent freeze-thawing cycles leading to even more soil erosion and thereby greater influx
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
Thomas Rohrlack, NIVA
Climate: Climate:
Increase in amount and intensity of precipitation and a 2ºC increase in the average winter temperature in the Oslo region Increased surface runoff causes soil erosion and Increased winter temperature causes more Increased winter temperature causes more frequent freeze-thawing cycles leading to more soil erosion and thereby greater influx
Landuse:
Urbanization, deforestation, draining of wetlands and removal of riverbank vegetation, as well as encroachments such as modification of meandering streams to straight canals and piping of open brooks. Changes in agriculture; Tile drainage Changes in agriculture; Tile drainage
Reduced S deposition:
SO4
2-, which in acid lakes in southern
Norway constitutes the dominant anion charges, has decreased by about 70% has decreased by about 70%. → This has led to a decrease in Al3+ leaching and reduction in Ionic strength (I) → and thereby an increase leaching of DNOM → causing likely an increased natural flux of P-DNOM
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
g y → Al3+ is used to remove PO4
3- in eutrophic lakes
→ Reduced I gives more soil erosion → and thereby an increased transport of Particulate-P Skjekvåle, 2007
CNP robot
Adenosine monophosphate
Diffuse Gradients in Thin Films (DGT) passively accumulate
Auto Sampler
Autoanalysator –N, P, C TotP, TotN, TOC/DOC, 3 channels
TOP
P-compounds Our experiments have shown that these DGTs are also able to
TOC (same as for TON?) LIMS, WEB TON TOP
sample Low Molecular Weight (LMW) organic P-compounds in a
Auto
Autoanalysator næringsalter N, P , Si 4 – 5 channels
non-destructive manner
Sampler LIMS, WEB NO3 with Cd NO2 (also sep As needle ) NH4
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
PO4 SiO2, (also sep AS needle)
Some preliminary results
Large variation depending on discharge depending on discharge and land-use
High conc. of Particulate P esp during Particulate P esp. during discharge Episodes (E) Particulate-P dominate in Particulate-P dominate in runoff from Agricultural land DNOM-P dominate in discharge from forested catchments
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
Data: BioForsk/Morsa
Total-P in the lake vary between 15 – 27 μg P/L
E
E E E E E
R l ti l littl t t l P i f d i th l k
Relatively little total P is found in the lake relative to what is found in the rivers flowing into the lake
Is it possible that Particulate-P does not contribute significantly
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
to the total loading of P as this is bound to Al and just settles into the sediment?
Grazing by alga is minimized minimized No photo-oxidation Lake water reflects more the effect of river influx
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
Tot-P varies from 12 – 24ug/L
Barren rock with k t f d pockets of sand 50 cm loam
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS Deep marine
deposits with layers of clay
Results so far
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
5 μM Ali 16 μg tot-P
pH varies from 4,3 – 5,9
negative response to increased runoff
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
Rough estimate:
85% of the watershed is forest
The natural background flux from forests are found to contribute with approx. 20% - 25%
75% of total P from forested watersheds is organic P 75% of total P from forested watersheds is organic P There has been almost a doubling of the concentrations
25 30 35 40 g Pt/l Skul. Oset Lang. Alun.
This represents an increased total P loading of 7,5% In the lake a significant fraction of the
5 10 15 20 25 Colour, mg
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
may become available by photo-oxidization
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Significance of
Water containing 5 μM of Al3+ is running out of the forested watershed Aluminium is a strong co-precipitating agent for P
Downstream the forest runoff containing Al3+ mixes with alkaline and P rich runoff from agriculture Al(OH) i it t d i it t PO 3 Al(OH)3 precipitates and co-precipitate PO4
3-
Rough estimate:
5 μM Al/L extrapolated for the forested area of the whole watershed provides an potential for precipitation of 43 t P/yr provides an potential for precipitation of 43 t P/yr. Total flux of P to the lake is now approx. 39 t P/yr. During the acid rain period there was likely a 3 times greater Al leaching. This could potentially precipitate out more than 130 t P /yr.
Al3+ PO4
3-
OH-
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
Al(OH)3PO4 Al(OH)3
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
Atmospheric deposition
Snow
Melting periods
Prosesses & Drivers that govern P leaching
Internal circulation
Throughfall Sub-lateral throughflow during O i d iti d PO4, P-DNOM Throughfall imilation
O horisont
Humification
Bhs horisont
saturated conditions Sub-lateral throughflow during t t d diti Organic decomposition and humification Climate (precip. & temp.), DNOM Desorpsjon and P-DNOM PO4 Ass
Bhs horisont
PAL, Org.mat., CEC, PSD
C horisont
saturated conditions Groundwater seepege eso psjo a d Anion exchange DNOM, pH, Ali Desorpsjon and PO4, P-DNOM PO4 OM
C horisont
CEC, PSD
Riverine
Groundwater seepege Water from wetland and bogs along the brook in the valley bottom Anion exchange pH, Ali Redox, Desorpsjon and PO4 PO4, P-DNO
Riverine zone
along the brook in the valley bottom Anion exchange Redox, pH, Ali, Fe PO4, P-DNOM
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
Precipitation/ Solubility Ali, Fe AlPO4, FePO4
Atmospheric deposition
Prosesses & Drivers th t P l hi deposition
Snow
Overland flow (e.g. on frozen soil)
that govern P leaching
Erosion
(Precip Intensity thaw periods) PO4
Fertilizing
Melting periods
Ap horison
PAL, Org. content, CEC PSD
Sub-lateral throughfall during saturated conditions Redox and Organic decomposition Cli t (P i d t ) PO4, P-DNOM, P-particles (P-Al, P-Fe) (Precip. Intensity, thaw periods) PO4, P-DNOM, P-particles
CEC, PSD
C horisont
Groundwater seepege Climate (Precip. and temp.) Desorption and
PO4, P-DNOM, P-particles
C horisont
CEC, PSD
B ff S
Groundwater seepege Water from wetland and bogs along the brook in the valley bottom Anion exchange pH, Ali Desorption and Anion exchange organic PO4 referential flo PO4, P-particles
Buffer Sone
the brook in the valley bottom Anion exchange, organic decompositio Redox, pH, Ali,Fe particles P-DNOM Erosion River discharge urbanisation P
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
P-p River discharge, urbanisation Precipitation/ Solubility Ali,Fe AlPO4, FePO4
Drainage pipe River
D i F t A i
Drainage pipes Forest soil Agric. soil
P-DNOM P-DNOM PO4 PO4, P-Particles
River input
PO4 P Particles
P-DNOM
PO4
Photo-oxidation Decomposition, i li ti
PO4
Assimilation mineralization
Bacteria
P-Particles
P-Alga
P-Al P-Fe Reduction f F
3+
P Fe P-Si Mineralization f t i l
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
P-Al, P-Si
DGT Method development Monitoring data
Catchment process studies Conceptual hydro- geochemical mobilization and transport studies
The hypotheses are tested through works packages in an integrated project
Parameterization of SWAT catchment Identification of
works packages in an integrated project
WP1 Development of sampling and laboratory methods for P fractionation
SWAT catchment model and Adaptation of MyLake model major nutrient sources, pressures
methods for P fractionation WP2 Catchment processes - the influence of climate and land-use on nutrient fluxes into aquatic systems
Nature responses to
aquatic systems WP3 Modelling of catchment and lake processes
p changes in pressures network/ nalysis l
WP4 Integrated uncertainty analysis of cost- effectiveness of measures using Bayesian belief network methodology
Suggest abatement measures Bayesian n decision an tool RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
WP5 Societal response
Societal responses to abatement measures
Increase the models ability to predict the effects of changes y p g in the environment and effect of abatement measures
Improve the underlying models reliability and relevance p y g y
Specifically targeting the bioavailable P-fraction and supplement empirical assessments with pp p conceptual knowledge based process understanding
Need to link geochemical and physio-hydrological processes g p y y g p in the catchment with the limnological and in-lake biochemical processes controlling the level of nutrients (P, N, C) and its effect on water quality
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
The SWAT and MyLake models will be adapted and applied for hypothesis testing as well as to identify knowledge gaps
EMMA relates soil water chemistry (end-members) to lake water chemistry so that water pathways may be determined SWAT is a river basin model developed to quantify the impact of land management practices in large, g p g complex watersheds The MyLake (Multi-year Lake) is a
SWAT; www.brc.tamus.edu/swat/
The MyLake (Multi year Lake) is a process-based lake water model for simulating vertical distribution of lake water temperature, sediment-water interactions, and phosphorus-phytoplankton dynamics
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
Saloranta & Andersen, 2007
Especially an assessment of probability of implementation
Sound Economic Production
y is lacking from previous assessments of measures
Environ. Social
Sustain- ability
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
Protection Harmony
C f k f bi i ( t i t ) Common framework for combining (uncertainty) information from different sources Utilizes probabilistic rather than Utilizes probabilistic, rather than deterministic, expressions to describe relationships among variables
It will be used to;
I. Include sub-catchment of Western Vansjø II Effect of fertilizer reduction in “hot spots” II. Effect of fertilizer reduction in “hot spots” III. Assess impacts of long-term leaching of on soil P-AL IV. Assess impacts of reduced ploughing on the contributions from gully erosion V. Consider non-agronomical factors affecting farmer participation in implementation of abatement measures implementation of abatement measures VI. Address water quality indicators predicted by lake water quality model (e.g. sight depth) in the assessment of willingness to pay for improved recreational water quality VII. Model interaction between the Western Vansjø and Storefjorden
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
across run-off and lake models in the integrated uncertainty analysis
NIVA Report 5555-2008
There are many conflicting interests
Agricultural productivity, leisure time activities, general environmental concerns, public drinking water provision
Focus mainly on farmers and the public authorities the public authorities
Farmers because they are one of the immediate source of emissions, and Public authorities because they will be responsible for regulating emissions and thereby the pollution for regulating emissions and thereby the pollution level.
According to game theory it might be rational not to cooperate to implement rational not to cooperate to implement measures as long as one does not know whether others intend to comply..
Knowledge is a prerequisite for collective action between stakeholders
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
collective action between stakeholders
M th d Methods
Improved P-fractionation monitoring methods will enhance our ability to identify the processes governing fluxes of bioactive P-fractions and thereby algal growth
Processes
It is possible to assess the processes governing mobilization and transport
by determining their soil pools and fractions in water More frequent intensive rain episodes enhance eutrophication through increased erosion and leaching of nutrients through increased erosion and leaching of nutrients Continued flux of P from over-fertilized soils and sediments will maintain eutrophication
Models
It is possible to adequately parameterize processes governing nutrient fluxes It is possible to adequately parameterize processes governing nutrient fluxes to improve performance of the conceptual models
Bayesian Belief Network
Joint uncertainty regarding the cost-effectiveness of abatement measures will be reduced by accounting for correlation between drivers common to reduced by accounting for correlation between drivers common to two or more sub-models Implementation uncertainty will be increased by accounting for behavioural responses
Societal response
Knowledge of stakeholder interests will be essential for the success
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
Knowledge of stakeholder interests will be essential for the success
WP1 Develop monitoring methods
Diffusive Gradients in Thin films (DGT) ( ) Determination of P-fractions
WP2 Plot and catchment studies
Study of soil-soil/water interactions Study mobilization and fluxes of bio-relevant P Process oriented studies Synoptic surveys of discharge Synoptic surveys of discharge and hydrochemistry
WP3 Modelling WP3 Modelling
The SWAT land management model MyLake model will be adapted to F-fractions in western Vansjø Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) ions will be run on the uncertainties
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
WP4
Reduce uncertainty Reduce uncertainty Including conceptual processes and Calibrate against new monitoring data Assess farmer response Conduct a farm-level survey Modelling farm economic optimisation using SEAMLESS model suite Assess the effectiveness of abatement measures Assess the effectiveness of abatement measures Adapt the Bayesian network to MCMC simulation results Use the Bayesian network methodology to integrate project activities
WP5
Conduct a baseline study of the policy process
Carry out an analysis of the political/administrative Carry out an analysis of the political/administrative decision-making process Assessment of the relevance and legitimacy of probability modelling (Bayesian network modelling) Develop and improve the DPSIR model
RCN project Eutropia, XV-IHSS
Develop and improve the DPSIR model