2014/15
Half Year Results
London | Friday 7 November 2014
Results Cautionary statement This presentation contains certain - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2014/15 Half Year London | Friday 7 November 2014 Results Cautionary statement This presentation contains certain statements that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information. These statements are forward-looking
2014/15
London | Friday 7 November 2014
2
Cautionary statement
This presentation contains certain statements that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information. These statements are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These statements include information with respect to National Grid’s financial condition, its results of
‘outlook’, ‘seeks’, ‘estimates’, ‘targets’, ‘may’, ‘will’, ‘continue’, ‘project’ and similar expressions, as well as statements in the future tense, identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of National Grid’s future performance and are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. Many of these assumptions, risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond National Grid’s ability to control
(including the timeliness of consents for construction projects); the timing of construction and delivery by third parties of new generation projects requiring connection; breaches of, or changes in, environmental, climate change and health and safety laws or regulations, including breaches
network operations and damage to infrastructure, due to adverse seasonal and weather conditions including the impact of major storms as well as the results of climate change or due to unauthorised access to or deliberate breaches of National Grid’s IT systems and supporting technology; changes in public safety concerns, including due to network failure or interruption involving National Grid or other utility providers, and related increases in repair and emergency response activities; performance against regulatory targets and standards and against National Grid’s peers with the aim of delivering stakeholder expectations regarding costs and efficiency savings, including those related to investment programmes and internal transformation projects; and customers and counterparties (including financial institutions) failing to perform their
fluctuations in exchange rates, interest rates and commodity price indices; restrictions and conditions (including filing requirements) in National Grid’s borrowing and debt arrangements, funding costs and access to financing; regulatory requirements for the Company to maintain financial resources in certain parts of its business and restrictions on some subsidiaries’ transactions such as paying dividends, lending or levying charges; inflation; the delayed timing of recoveries and payments in National Grid’s regulated businesses and whether aspects of its activities are contestable; the funding requirements and performance of National Grid’s pension schemes and other post-retirement benefit schemes; the failure to attract, train or retain employees with the necessary competencies, including leadership skills, and any significant disputes arising with National Grid’s employees or the breach of laws or regulations by its employees; and the failure to respond to market developments and grow the Company’s business to deliver its strategy, as well as incorrect or unforeseen assumptions or conclusions (including unanticipated costs and liabilities) relating to business development activity, including assumptions in connection with joint ventures. For further details regarding these and other assumptions, risks and uncertainties that may impact National Grid, please read the Strategic Report section and the ‘Risk factors’ on pages 167 to 169 of National Grid’s most recent Annual Report and Accounts. In addition, new factors emerge from time to time and National Grid cannot assess the potential impact of any such factor on its activities or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual future results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Except as may be required by law or regulation, the Company undertakes no obligation to update any of its forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation.
2014/15
Steve Holliday | Chief Executive
4
On track for another good year
Consistent delivery of growth &
continued execution against our plans
UK performing well US systems implementation completed US business growing Delivering the fundamentals
5
Safety, reliability & customer service
UK employee safety remains world class;
US making excellent progress
Network reliability remains strong Delivering another year of substantial
investment
Financial headlines
6
profit before tax
earnings
earnings per share
dividend per share
Note: Adjusted performance, excluding exceptional items and remeasurements for continuing operations All numbers include impacts of timing
Electricity Transmission
UK Priorities
7
Gas Transmission Gas Distribution
London power tunnels
8
Gas Transmission compressors
9
Gas Distribution customer service
10
US Priorities
11
US Priorities
12
Completed Upgrade successfully installed in July New financial systems fully integrated
US Priorities
13
Operations performing well Strong growth in regulated assets Headwinds to expected returns
Unplanned gas mains repair costs End of bonus depreciation dilutes returns
14
Unplanned gas mains repair costs
15
Property JV with Berkeley Group
Property deal up to 24 sites into JV First 10 sites identified Berkeley Group invest cash, we provide
Realise greater value for our London
Responsible business
16
‘Responsible business of the year’
award from Business in the Community
Recognised UK & US businesses:
2014/15
Andrew Bonfield | Finance Director
18
In line with expectations
Operating profit
UK Electricity Transmission
UK Gas Transmission
UK Gas Distribution
US Regulated
Other Activities
Full Year focus on…
performance & position
Half Year update…
returns
Note: Adjusted performance, excluding exceptional items and remeasurements for continuing operations All numbers include impacts of timing
19
Electricity Transmission
Totex
Add’l
UK Electricity Transmission
UK Transmission
Other Totex Overall Incentives
Legal settlements of £53m not included in 14/15 returns Totex improvements driven by capital efficiencies Other incentives to maintain into the full year Additional (legacy) price control benefits continue On track for improved performance
Note: Adjusted performance, excluding exceptional items and remeasurements for continuing operations All numbers include impacts of timing
20
Gas Transmission
Totex
Add’l
UK Gas Transmission
UK Transmission
Other Totex Overall Incentives
Lower totex spend - in line with allowances Permit income to boost traditional (other) incentives Additional (legacy) allowances to remain in line with
13/14 but will ramp down from 2015/16
Note: Adjusted performance, excluding exceptional items and remeasurements for continuing operations All numbers include impacts of timing
21
Gas Distribution
Totex
Add’l
UK Gas Distribution
UK Transmission
Other Totex Overall Incentives
Another good year for mains replacement activities Customer service improvements should benefit other
incentives
Small amount of additional benefits set to continue
Note: Adjusted performance, excluding exceptional items and remeasurements for continuing operations All numbers include impacts of timing
22
US bonus depreciation
Stimulus measure to encourage investment Lowered cash tax by accelerating tax deductions Creates deferred tax liability, offset against rate base
growth
No impact on revenues, potential upside when rate
base growth trued up
For calendar year, likely to add around $350m to rate
base growth – a 20 basis point headwind to returns
23
US Regulated US Regulated
UK Transmission
Operations performing well Strong growth in regulated assets Returns expect to reflect
Fundamentals of US business remain attractive
projected 2014 returns
Note: Adjusted performance, excluding exceptional items and remeasurements for continuing operations All numbers include impacts of timing
Other
Operating activities continue to provide steady
performance
Positive outlook for the full year Joint venture with Berkeley Group should unlock
value of London property portfolio over time
Corporate costs associated with business
development and regulatory filings Other operating activities
£51m £26m
Property IFA Grain LNG Metering
£87m £38m
Note: Adjusted performance, excluding exceptional items and remeasurements for continuing operations All numbers include impacts of timing
25
Interest, tax and earnings
Finance costs
19% lower than 2013
Adjusted performance, excluding exceptional items and remeasurements
Effective interest rate 4.5% Lower cost of carry from
holding cash & refinancing debt at attractive rates
Debt financing
26
$900m NiMo bond raising
£1.5bn bank loan facility
arranged with European Investment Bank
27
Interest, tax and earnings
Finance costs
19% lower than 2013
Effective interest rate 4.5% Lower cost of carry from
holding cash & refinancing debt at attractive rates
Tax rate 30bp lower than
2013
Reflects lower UK
corporation tax rate
Effective tax rate
at £(258)m Earnings per share
£883m earnings 3,771m weighted avg.
shares
Adjusted performance, excluding exceptional items and remeasurements
28
Cash flows and net debt
Operating cash flows from continuing operations before exceptional items, remeasurements and taxation
Period ended 30 September 2014 £m
Operating profit 1,611 Depreciation & amortisation 721 Provisions, incl. pensions (197) Working capital & other 432 Net operating cash flow 2,567 Net debt 21,744
Net operating cash flow
Operating cash flow after capex
Net debt
29
H1 2014 H1 2013
UK Transmission 514 701 UK Gas Transmission 85 92 UK Gas Distribution 226 248 US Regulated 649 571 Other Activities 105 76 Total 1,579 1,688
£m
Capital investment
30
Technical guidance 2014/15
US 18a timing refund
$120-$140m
Impacts of US weather Interest costs lower Full year tax rate of 25%
2015/16
Two-year lag in UK
regulation
No impact on returns
31
Summary
Solid first half Good progress to year
Continue to grow group
2014/15
Steve Holliday | Chief Executive
33
Electricity Market Reform
Managed capacity market
qualification process
qualified
First capacity auctions in
December 2014
First contract for difference
awards in early 2015
Loss of load expectation (LOLE) Worsening reliability
Winter outlook
Supplemental & Demand-side Balancing Reserve EMR Capacity Market in place
Improving reliability
Source: Ofgem June Electricity Capacity Assessment Report
Electricity Transmission
UK Priorities
35
Gas Transmission Gas Distribution
US Priorities
36
Drive performance and efficiency Smaller targeted applications for cost allowances
Major filings in New York and Massachusetts
37
Tom King
Tom King to step down in March 2015 Seven years of important change Leaves behind an organisation with
strong jurisdictional & regulatory focus
38
Dean Seavers
Dean Seavers will join in
December 2014 as US CEO
Brings wealth of experience in
performance management
39
Peggy Smyth
Peggy Smyth joined in October
as US CFO
Brings strong utility experience
after time at Consolidated Edison
US Priorities
40
Drive performance and efficiency Smaller targeted applications for cost allowances
Major filings in New York and Massachusetts
41
Growth pipeline
UK
42
Growth pipeline
Network modernisation Gas mains replacement Customer connections
US
43
Growth pipeline
Nemo Link
£500m, 1GW Belgian
interconnector NSN Link
£2bn, 1.4GW Norwegian
interconnector
UK US
44
Growth pipeline
New York State Transco JV
JV between four
transmission operators
Reinforce north-south
transfer of power
Expect overall $2bn
investment FERC 1000
Wide range of opportunities
UK US
45
Growth pipeline
UK US
In summary
46
Safety, reliability and
Well positioned &
2014/15
Appendix 1: Pensions & other post-retirement benefit obligations (IAS19 data)
UK US At 30 September 2014 (£m) ESPS NGUK PS Pensions OPEBs NG total Market value of assets 2,102 16,029 4,506 1,696 24,333 Present value of liabilities (2,612) (16,194) (5,056) (2,847) (26,709) Net liability (510) (165) (550) (1,151) (2,376) Deferred taxation 102 33 222 463 820 Liability net of taxation (408) (132) (328) (688) (1,556) Discount rates 4.0% 4.0% 4.6% 4.6%
OPEBs = other post employment benefits
UK US At 31 March 2014 (£m) ESPS NGUK PS Pensions OPEBs NG total Market value of assets 1,957 15,452 4,229 1,620 23,258 Present value of liabilities (2,467) (15,695) (4,752) (2,755) (25,669) Net liability (510) (243) (523) (1,135) (2,411) Deferred taxation 102 49 210 456 817 Liability net of taxation (408) (194) (313) (679) (1,594) Discount rates 4.3% 4.3% 4.8% 4.8%
Appendix 2: Timing Impacts
£m UK Electricity Transmission UK Gas Transmission UK Gas Distribution US Regulated Total 2014/15 Opening balance (67) (11) 21 113 56 2014/15 over/(under) recovery (6) 10 3 (35) (28) 2014/15 Closing balance to return / (recover) (73) (1) 24 78 28 2013/14 Opening balance (7) 10 (8) 103 98 2013/14 over/(under) recovery 10 (12) 8 (52) (46) 2013/14 Closing balance to return / (recover) 3 (2)
52 Year on year timing variance (16) 22 (5) 17 18
All USD balances stated using the average 2014 rate ($1.68 to £1.00)
Appendix 3: Weighted average number of shares
Period ended 30 September 2014 2013 Number of shares (millions): Prior period as reported (weighted average)
Current period opening shares 3,730
35 35 Other share issuances (weighted from issuance) 6
3,771 3,764 Business performance earnings (£m) 883 761 Business performance EPS (2013 restated) 23.4p 20.2p