Research Paper Research in Population & Development in Africa XXVIII IUSSP International Population 29 OCT – 4 NOVEMBER 2017 CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA Topic theme contributing towards for : The 28 th international population conference, 29 October – 4 November 2017, Cape Town, South Africa Poster Session : Population & Development, Title of research project: The Demographic Dividend (Window of Opportunity) and It’s Impact on Labor Force, The Case of South Africa and Egypt, 1996-2013 By: Aliaa Abdelraouf Ali Amer Name : Aliaa Abdelraouf Ali Amer Sex: female Date of Birth : 24/03/1967 Nationality: Egyptian Country of birth : Egypt Country of Residence : Egypt E. mail : alia1_alia@yahoo.com – alia.ali.amer@gmail.com Institution : Cairo Demographic Center (CDC) Current Job : Researcher at Cairo Demographic Center (CDC) : 77 street No. 9 – Mokattam Cairo , Egypt Home address : 0+201227997066 – + 201112125125 Cell Tel. :
The Demographic Dividend (Window of Opportunity) and it’s Impact on Labor Force, The Case of South Africa and Egypt, 1996-2013 By: Aliaa Abdelraouf Ali Amer - Abstract This study aims at examining the extent to which South Africa and Egypt have reached the demographic Window within the current socio – Economic situation of the Population based on data from the censuses of the year 1976, 1986, 2006 for Egypt, and the censuses and labor force of the year 1996, 2001, and 2011 for South Africa, in both countries as well as their projections up to the year 2032. The study concluded that Egypt and South Africa have experienced considerable changes in its population age composition during the last four decades due to considerable declining trend in fertility levels. These changes in the age structure are expected to have great impact on future population needs in various spheres including education, health, labor force, aged population, and consequently on future developmental efforts and achievements. Both countries are expected to begin the demographic dividend within about two decades after a significant fertility. T he impact of changing age composition on the labor force is expected to increase labor force size by 8.5 million people in Egypt and 5.5 million people in South Africa in the next 15 years. - Introduction The demographic dividend is the accelerated economic growth that may result from a decline in a country's mortality and fertility and the subsequent change in the age structure of the population. With fewer births each year, a country's young dependent population grows smaller in relation to the working-age population. With fewer people to support, a country has a window of opportunity for rapid economic growth if the right social and economic policies developed and investments are made (PRB, 2012). Africa is expected to undergo substantial demographic changes in the coming decades with the rising working age share of its population. The opportunity of African countries to convert these changes into demographic dividends for growth and poverty reduction will - 1 -
depend on several factors. The result will likely be good if African countries can continue the gains already made under better institutions and policies, particularly those affecting the productivity of labor, such as educational outcomes. - Research Problem: According to the demographic transition theory both South Africa and Egypt are considered in its third phase. Hence, in this phase young cohorts are expected to become adults, join the labor force and earn income. As the dependency ratio continues to decline and the proportion of workers rises, so provides opportunities for economic growth. Therefore it is the phase that the economy has that unique opportunity to boost economic growth. This opportunity is available only for a limited time. Changes in age structures resulting from declining fertility create a one-time "demographic gift", when the working age population has relatively few dependents, of either young or old age, to support. In this context it is important for both South Africa and Egypt to examine the extent to which they are able to achieve and utilize the window of opportunity for economic development within the current socio - economic situation of their populations. - Objectives: 1- To examine the extent to which South Africa and Egypt have reached the demographic Window. 2- To carry out population and labor force projections by broad age group as well as labor force projections for both countries up to 2032 - Methods and data sources: Methods are descriptive and analytical in which population projection will be carried out, the main sources of data used are the censuses of the year 1976, 1986, 2006 for Egypt, and the censuses and labor force of the year 1996, 2001, and 2011 for South Africa. - Country background: Arab Republic of Egypt is a country mainly in North Africa, with the Sinai Peninsula forming a land bridge in Southwest Asia. Egypt is thus a transcontinental country, - 2 -
and a major power in Africa, the Mediterranean region and the Islamic world. Covering an area of about 1,010,000 square kilometers (390,000 sq mi), Egypt is bordered by the Mediterranean Sea to the north, the Gaza Strip and Israel to the northeast, the Red Sea to the east, Sudan to the south and Libya to the west. Administratively, Egypt is divided into 27 governorates. The governorates are further divided into regions. The regions contain towns and villages. Each governorate has a capital, sometimes carrying the same name as the governorate. Four of these governorates are major 4 urban ones as to: Cairo, Alexandria, Port Said and Suez,9 governorates are located in Lower Egypt, 9 are located in Upper Egypt, and five are frontier governorates. According to the Egypt population census 2017 calculated population over 100 Million persons The Republic of South Africa occupies the most important country in all the south region in Africa, it is located attitudinally from 22° to 35° degrees south of the equator, and longitudinally from 17° to 33° East of Greenwich. South Africa Covering an area of about 12,190,90 square kilometers, the country has common boundaries with Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Namibia, South Africa is surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean to the west and the Indian Ocean to the East. Administratively, South Africa is divided into nine Province, and into four population groups, African, Asians, Coloureds, and whites, according to the South Africa population census 2011 calculated population was 50.8 Million persons. - Demographic Transition in Egypt and South Africa During the last few decades, Egypt initiated the ground for demographic take off as a result of the successful implementation of population policies and programs starting from the 1980s. The annual growth rate 2.08 percent in 1986-1996, and then slightly decreased to 2.05 in 1996 - 2006. However, the last period 2006 - 2013 has shown are verse trend in which the rate increased to reach 2.3 percent table (1). This unexpected and undesired increase comes consistent with other recent increases in fertility levels. Regard to South Africa, there have been three official censuses since it is first democratic election in 1994, the first official census was in 1996, and the second was 2001, the final one was 2011, the population of South Africa has been increased from almost 23.4 - 3 -
million in 1985 to 40.58 million in 1996, and the annual growth rate was declined from 5.5 present to reach 0.19 present for the period 1996 – 2001. However, the annual growth rate is increase again in the last period for the official census by 1.44 present for the period 2001- 2011. Table (1) Population Size and Growth Rate, Egypt, 1976 – 2013, South Africa 1985 - 2015 Egypt South Africa Population Growth Population Growth Year Period Year Period Size Million Rate Size Million Rate 1986 48,254 1986-1996 2.08 1985 23, 386 1985- 1996 5.51 1996 59,512 1996-2006 2.05 1996 40,584 1996 - 2001 0.19 2006 72,798 2006-2013 2.3 2001 44,826 2001 - 2011 1.44 2013 83,661 2011 51,770 Source: Calculated from CAPMAS, 1976- 2006 Population censuses of Egypt; Egypt in Figures, 2014, Statistics South African Census data 1996 -2011, As indicated in table (2), the crude birth rate in Egypt declined from a maximum level of 38.6 per thousand in 1986 to reach a minimum level of 25.7 per thousand in 2006. Unfortunately the rate increased again to reach 30 per thousand in 2011.The crude death rate also declined steadily from 9.2 in 1986 to reach its minimum level of 6.1 per thousand in 2011. Accordingly, the rate of natural increase declined from 2.94 to 1.93 percent in the same period, but like the population growth rate the rate of natural increase has reversely increased to 2.42 percent in 2011. (CAPMAS,2013). With regarding to South Africa table (2) indicate also that the crude birth rate (CBR) declined from a maximum level of 35.8 per thousand between the period 1975 -1980 to reach a minimum level of 21.6 per thousand in 2011.The crude death rate (CDR) also declined steadily from 11.7 for the period 1975- 1980 to reach its minimum level of 8.6 per thousand in after 10 years. Unfortunately the rate increased again to reach the maximum level 15.2 per thousand in the period 2005 - 2010, and declined again to reach 11.3 per thousands in 2011. Accordingly, the rate of natural increase (RNI) declined from 2.4 to 0.7 percent in the same period, but like the population growth rate the rate of natural increase has reversely increased to 1.03 percent in 2011. - 4 -
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