SLIDE 1
- On the base of homogenized daily
data series for temperature and precipitation: 1901- 2010
- Analysis of mean parameters and
Research and esearch and d development evelopment R in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Research and esearch and d development evelopment R in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Research and esearch and d development evelopment R in connection with climate change in connection with climate change at Hungarian Meteorological Service at Hungarian Meteorological Service Zolt n Dunkel dr. n Dunkel dr. Zolt
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
Annual Annual temperature averages and temperature averages and the fitted trends to the period 1901 the fitted trends to the period 1901-
- 2010 and 1981
2010 and 1981-
- 2010
2010
Observed temperature changes °C year spring summer autumn winter 1901‐2010 0.98 1.1 1.2 0.65 0.64 1981‐2010 1.17 1.3 1.7 0.66 0.8
Sinificant changes are bolded
SLIDE 4
Observed precipitation changes % year spring summer autumn winter 1901‐2010 ‐5% ‐17% 11% ‐14% 1% 1981‐2010 25% 13% 36% 30% 12%
Sinificant changes are bolded
Annual precipitation sum Annual precipitation sum and the fitted trends to the period and the fitted trends to the period 1901 1901-
- 2010
2010
SLIDE 5
Change of the temperature, 1980-2009 1.06°C 1.52°C 2.07°C min mean max Change of the precipitation, 1960-2009
- 22.00%
- 1.70%
21.00% min mean max
Change of the annual temperature Change of the annual temperature and precipitation and precipitation
SLIDE 6
Extreme climate indices: Extreme climate indices:
- bserved changes 1901
- bserved changes 1901-
- 2009
2009
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Trend= 0.8days/decade
40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Trend= -1 days/decade
1 2 3 4 5 6 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Trend= 0.1 days/decade
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Trend= -0.4% /decade
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Trend=0.4days/decade
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Summer Trend=0.12 mm/decade
Frost days: Tmin < 0 °C Summer days: Tmax > 25 °C Warm nights: Tmin > 20 °C
% of wet days: daily precipitation > 1 mm Simple daily intensity: precipitation sum/number
- f wet days
Maximum number of consecutive days when the daily precipitation < 1 mm
Temperature Precipitation
SLIDE 7
- Two models:
Two models:
ALADIN-Climate REMO Period 1961–2100 1951–2100 Resolution 10 km and 31 levels 25 km and 20 levels Scenario A1B A1B
Climate modelling Climate modelling
SLIDE 8
Changes in temperature Changes in temperature Annual mean, reference period 1961 Annual mean, reference period 1961-
- 1990
1990
Significant changes: Warming in each seasons, most effective in summer and autumn Increasing number of heat days, hot days and heat waves
2021- 2050 2071- 2100 ALADIN- Climate REMO
1.4- 1.9°C 3.5- 3.9°C
SLIDE 9
Changes in precipitation Changes in precipitation Annual sum, reference period 1961 Annual sum, reference period 1961-
- 1990
1990
Not significant changes in general Greater uncertainty than at the temperature Change within the year Summer: increacing, other seasons: depend on the models Increasing intensity (significant for 2071–2100) Increasing number of the consecutive dry days for 2071- 2100
2021- 2050 2071- 2100 ALADIN- Climate REMO
(- 1)- 0% (- 5)- (+ 3)%
SLIDE 10