Renewables Market: Alberta Where are we? Whats to come? Ben - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Renewables Market: Alberta Where are we? Whats to come? Ben - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 04, 2024 96 likes •227 views

Renewables Market: Alberta Where are we? Whats to come? Ben Thibault, BSc, JD Electricity Program Director e: bent@pembina.org | tw: @ThibaultBen Leading Canadas transition to a clean energy future The Pembina Institute advocates for

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Renewables Market: Alberta

Where are we? What’s to come?

Ben Thibault, BSc, JD Electricity Program Director e: bent@pembina.org | tw: @ThibaultBen

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Leading Canada’s transition to a clean energy future

The Pembina Institute advocates for strong, effective policies to support Canada’s clean energy transition.

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Projected supply mix

3 Source: AESO, 2014

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Energy-only, merchant market

  • All wholesale, non-BTF electrical energy

must flow through power pool (wholesale spot market)

  • No central procurement
  • No capacity market — generators paid
  • nly for MWh, not MW
  • No locational prices — province wide spot

market

  • Price floor/ceiling: $0/MWh — $1000/MWh

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Price-setting in energy-only market

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No Wind 500 MW 1,000 MW

Source: MSA, 2010

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5 10 15 15 1 7 13 19 Hourly pool price (¢/kWh) Hour of day Low wind Average pool price High wind

Wind’s price depressing effect

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21.4¢ 11.2¢ 9.8¢ 8.3¢ 8.0¢ 7.7¢ 5.5¢ 5 10 15 20 25

Peaker Cogen Hydro Gas Entire pool Coal Wind

Average price (¢/kWh)

Average revenue rate, by fuel

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Additional barrier to RE investment

Downside market risk à debt financing hard for any project, especially renewables,

Cost = upfront capital Revenue = future, downside risk, no pricing control

whereas gas investment’s risk is buffered (for the generator).

  • Cost = operating (fuel prices)
  • Revenue = determined by operating cost
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Supply situation: status quo

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Coal Combined Cycle Gas Cogeneration

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033

Annual Generation (GWh)

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Accelerated coal phase-out

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Coal Combined Cycle Gas Cogeneration

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033

Annual Generation (GWh)

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Growing renewable energy

  • Considerable proportion of stakeholders

suggested RPS in their submissions

  • Varying degrees of ambition, but evidence we can

reasonably push beyond 30% energy by 2030:

  • Flattened wind profile with greater geographic

diversity

  • Wind and solar profiles pair well
  • Important details:
  • Counterparty?
  • RECs? Contracts for power?
  • Strong interest in distributed / community-owned
  • How does this pair with existing market design?

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twitter.com/pembina facebook.com/pembina.institute tw: @ThibaultBen