Renewable Integration Study Next Steps Mark Rothleder Director, Market Analysis and Development Working Group Meeting October 7, 2011
PURPOSE AND PROCESS Mark Rothleder Slide 2
Purpose and Process • Identify operational requirements and bound potential needs to be prepared for the changes it the fleet • Evaluate alternatives to meeting the identified operational requirements and needs • Incorporate results from LCR/OTC studies into 33% study work • Advisory team will review, guide and prioritize work • Objective is to complete sensitivity analysis work by December 2011 and perform final study work in Q1 2012 Slide 3
Current Advisory Team • Jack Ellis • Udi Helman (Brightsource) • Dariush Shirmohammadi (CalWEA) • Keith White / Kevin Dudney (CPUC) • Bob Fagan / David Peck (DRA/Synapse) • Antonio Alvarez (PG&E) • Robb Anderson (SDGE) • Mark Minick (SCE) • Kevin Woodruff (TURN) Slide 4
Next Steps Schedule Next Step Target Schedule Working group kick-off October 7, 2011 Requests for additional study work October 14, 2011 Triage and prioritize requests October 19, 2011 Perform priority analysis and October - December, 2011 review results Complete LCR/OTC analysis December, 2011 Scope final study work January 2012 Perform final study work January 2012-March 2012 Final results March 2012 Slide 5
REVIEW OF METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS Mark Rothleder Slide 6
Electricity is produced, delivered, and consumed at the speed of light while balance must be maintained. Slide 7
Supply variability and uncertainty will increase while the flexible capability of the fleet is decreases • Operational requirements for flexible capacity will approximately double due to increase of variable resources • Approximately 15% of the fleet’s flexible capability will retire by 2020 Slide 8
Renewable integration study process quantifies operational requirements and evaluates fleets ability to meet operating requirements. Statistical Develop Production Analysis/ simulation Profiles model Variable Flexibility Resource Requirements Shortages Renewable Wind / Solar Portfolios ( Regulation , Infrastructure and Load Balancing ) Needs Profiles Costs, Emissions Import/Export Capacity Factor Slide 9
33% scenarios in 2020 cover range renewable and load conditions. Case Case Title Description 1 33% Trajectory Based on contracted activity 2 Environmental Constrained High distributed solar 3 Cost Constrained Low cost (wind, out of state) 4 Time Constrained Fast development (out-of-state) 5 20% Trajectory For comparison 6 33% Trajectory High Load Higher load growth and/or energy program under-performance 7 33% Trajectory Low Load Lower load growth and/or energy program over-performance Slide 10
Potential need for 4,600MW of upward flexible resources observed in the high-load scenario. Slide 11
Out of approximately 3,500 MW downward balancing requirements, observed some hours of potential shortages. Note: Downward balancing may be more effectively and efficiently managed using curtailment or storage rather than less economic dispatch of flexible resources to higher level to maintain downward flexibility Slide 12
ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS OF RESULTS Mark Rothleder Slide 13
Decomposition of the operational requirements (1) Spring Load Following Contributions by Forecast Error (33%HighLoad ) 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 MW 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 -1000 -2000 -3000 -4000 -5000 Hour LFUp(L) LFUp(L+W) LFUp(L+W+1%err) LFUp(L+S) LFUp(L+S+1%err) LFDn(L) LFDn(L+W) LFDn(L+W+1%err) LFDn(L+S) LFDn(L+S+1%err) Slide 14
Decomposition of the operational requirements (2) Spring Regulation Contributions by Forecast Error (33%HighLoad ) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 MW 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -1200 Hour RegUp(L) RegUp(L+W) RegUp(L+W+1%err) RegUp(L+S) RegUp(L+S+1%err) RegDn(L) RegDn(L+W) RegDn(L+W+1%err) RegDn(L+S) RegDn(L+S+1%err) Slide 15
Decomposition of the operational requirements (3) Summer Regulation Contributions by Technology (33%HighLoad ) 1500 1000 500 MW 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 -500 -1000 -1500 Hour RegUp(L) RegUp(L+S_DG) RegUp(L+S) RegUp(L+W) RegUp(L+W+S) RegDn(L) RegDn(L+S_DG) RegDn(L+S) RegDn(L+W) RegDn(L+W+S) Slide 16
Decomposition of the operational requirements (4) Summer Load Following Contributions by Technology (33%HighLoad ) 4000 3000 2000 1000 MW 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 -1000 -2000 -3000 -4000 Hour LFUp(L) LFUp(L+S_DG) LFUp(L+S) LFUp(L+W) LFUp(L+W+S) LFDn(L) LFDn(L+S_DG) LFDn(L+S) LFDn(L+W) LFDn(L+W+S) Slide 17
Decomposition of the operational requirements (5) Spring Regulation Contributions by Technology (33%HighLoad ) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 MW 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -1200 Hour RegUp(L) RegUp(L+S_DG) RegUp(L+S) RegUp(L+W) RegUp(L+W+S) RegDn(L) RegDn(L+S_DG) RegDn(L+S) RegDn(L+W) RegDn(L+W+S) Slide 18
Decomposition of the operational requirements (6) Spring Load Following Contributions by Technology (33%HighLoad ) 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 MW 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 -1000 -2000 -3000 -4000 -5000 Hour LFUp(L) LFUp(L+S_DG) LFUp(L+S) LFUp(L+W) LFUp(L+W+S) LFDn(L) LFDn(L+S_DG) LFDn(L+S) LFDn(L+W) LFDn(L+W+S) Slide 19
Actual Real-Time Upward Energy Dispatch: Fall RTD Dispatch Upward Spring RTD Dispatch Upward 8000 8000 7000 7000 6000 6000 5000 5000 MW MW 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour Hour Winter RTD Dispatch Upward Summer RTD Dispatch Upward 8000 8000 7000 7000 6000 6000 5000 5000 MW MW 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour Hour Slide 20
Actual Real-Time Downward Energy Dispatch: Fall RTD Dispatch Dnward Spring RTD Dispatch Dnward 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 0 0 -1,000 -1000 -2,000 -2000 -3,000 -3000 MW MW -4,000 -4000 -5,000 -5000 -6,000 -6000 -7,000 -7000 -8,000 -8000 Hour Hour Winter RTD Dispatch Dnward Summer RTD Dispatch Dnward 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 0 0 -1000 -1000 -2000 -2000 -3000 -3000 MW MW -4000 -4000 -5000 -5000 -6000 -6000 -7000 -7000 -8000 -8000 Hour Hour Slide 21
PRM Resources: Assumptions vs. Performance Traj Env Cost Time All Gas LCR DA OTC 80 Total Capacity during Constrained Hours (GW) 70 60 50 Imports RPS 40 Gas 30 Hydro 20 Baseload 10 0 Assumed Simulated Assumed Simulated Assumed Simulated Assumed Simulated Assumed Simulated Assumed Simulated Assumed Simulated Assumed Simulated Assumed: deemed (or assumed) NQC value of resource Simulated: average resource performance during 50 constrained hours of PLEXOS simulation 22
RPS Resources: Assumptions vs. Performance Traj Env Cost Time All Gas LCR DA OTC 9 Total Capacity during Constrained Hours (MW) 8 7 6 Wind 5 Solar Thermal 4 Solar PV Geothermal 3 Biomass 2 1 0 Assumed Simulated Assumed Simulated Assumed Simulated Assumed Simulated Assumed Simulated Assumed Simulated Assumed Simulated Assumed Simulated Assumed: deemed (or assumed) NQC value of resource Simulated: average resource performance during 50 constrained hours of PLEXOS simulation 23
CAISO Resources Used During Top 50 Constrained High solar cases cause Gas resources provide constraint to occur during 70,000 more energy in All-Gas hours with less load Case 60,000 56,546 56,065 55,511 55,423 54,197 Reserves 50,000 RU LFU 40,000 Flex Maint MW Baseload Maint 30,000 Imports Flex Gen 20,000 RPS Gen Baseload Gen 10,000 - Traj Env Cost Time All Gas 24
Loads/resources balance for July 22, 2020 High Load Scenario ISO Load/Resource Balance --- July 22, 2020 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 Awarded LF_Up Awarded A/S 45,000 Demand Response Wind 40,000 Solar GT 35,000 MW Imports Hydro 30,000 Biomass/Biogas Pump Storage 25,000 CHP CCGT 20,000 Nuclear Load + A/S Req. 15,000 Load+A/S+LF_Up Req. 10,000 5,000 0 HE14 HE15 HE16 HE17 HE18 25
Hydro patterns – 2006 High-Hydro Year CAISO Average Hydro Production - 2006 January February March April May June July August September October November December 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0-2,000 2,000-4,000 4,000-6,000 6,000-8,000 26
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