Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Heraklion, June 25, 2019

• C. Tsompanidis, T

. Lolos, A. Sakalis *, E. Vlahantoni, E. Ieremiadi, D.A. Sarigiannis, A. Gotti, E. Scoccimarro

Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

2nd International ADAPTtoCLIMATE Conference

IPCC

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess climate change based on the latest science

• IPCC reports cover the scientifjc, technical and socio-economic

information relevant to understanding the scientifjc basis of risk

• f human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and
• ptions for adaptation and mitigation
• The IPCC provides an internationally accepted authority on

climate change, producing reports which have the agreement of leading climate scientists and the consensus of participating governments

2 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report 2

IPCC 5th Assessment Report

3 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

2046-2065 2081-2100 Scenari

• Mean

Range Mean Range Global Mean T emperature Change (oC) RCP2.6 1,0 0,4 - 1,6 1,0 0,3 - 1,7 RCP4.5 1,4 0,9 - 2,0 1,8 1,1 - 2,6 RCP6.0 1,3 0,8 - 1,8 2,2 1,4 - 3,1 RCP8.5 2,0 1,4 - 2,6 3,7 2,6 - 4,8 Global Mean Sea Level Rise (m) RCP2.6 0,24 0,17 - 0,32 0,40 0,26 - 0,55 RCP4.5 0,26 0,19 - 0,33 0,47 0,32 - 0,63 RCP6.0 0,25 0,18 - 0,32 0,48 0,33 - 0,63 RCP8.5 0,30 0,22 - 0,38 0,63 0,45 - 0,82

• IPCC issued its 5th Assessment Report in 2014. According

to the Report, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are mainly caused due to population size, economic activity, lifestyle, energy consumption, land use patterns, technology and climate policy

• The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which

were created to describe these factors, evaluate four difgerent 21st century pathways for greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric concentrations, air pollutant emissions and land use.

• RCPs include a rigorous mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), two

intermediate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0) and a very high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5) scenario

• The scenarios are named on the basis of the change in

energy intensity in 2100, in relation to the pre-industrial period (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 W/m2 respectively).

CORDEX downscaling efgort based on Regional Climate Models (RCMs) running with boundary conditions provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs)

Euro- CORDE X

Horizontal resolution ranging from 50 to 15 km (EUR-11 domain)

Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme

14 CORDEX Domains defjned

EURO-CORDEX the European branch of the international CORDEX initiative organize an internationally coordinated framework to produce ensemble climate simulations based on multiple dynamical and empirical-statistical downscaling models forced by multiple global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)

Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report 4

Global Scale: General Circulation Models GCMs Fully coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs are used to simulate past and future climate at the global scale, under difgerent radiative forcing conditions. Under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 is the last one used for the 5th IPCC Assessment Report) difgerent future radiative path are Considered (i.e. RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and RCP2.6). Regional Scale: Regional Models (RCMs) forced by GCMs T

• downscale to a higher resolution, Atmosphere
• nly

Regional Models are used. The atmospheric radiative forcing is the same as for GCMs. Also, boundary conditions for the RCM are Provided by GCMs. The Euro-CORDEX ( http://www.euro-cordex.net/)

Coordinated Downscaling Experiment provides a

multimodel ensemble of climate scenarios available at the 11 km horizontal resolution (EUR-11). Projection of extreme precipitation

[% change]

Additional refjnement to few km

Projection of extreme precipitation

GCM RCM

Downscaling process

Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report 5

6

Atmospheric model Orography

Downscaling to about 11 km as horizontal resolution 11 km as

• Horiz. Res.

Boundary conditions for RCMs are provided by General Circulation Models

Regional Climate Models (RCMs) involved

EURO-CORDEX – Coordinated Downscaling Experiment - European Domain (http://www.euro-cordex.net/) European branch of the international CORDEX initiative, which is a program sponsored by the World Climate Research Program (WRCP)

Five regional climate Models used. Under two difgerent CMIP5 (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project defjned to support the 5th IPCC Assessment Report (AR-5) emission scenarios for the XXI century : RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 up to year 2100.

Delivery of climate data and indicators

Model name Driving GCM Institute CCLM4 MPI-M-ESM- LR Consortium for Small‐scale Modelling (COSMO) KNMI- RACMO22E ICHEC-EC- EARTH Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute INERIS- WRF331F IPSL-CM5A- MR IPSL (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace) and INERIS (Institut National de l Environnement industriel et des RISques) CNRM- CCLM4 CNRM-CM5 Consortium for Small‐scale Modelling (COSMO) REMO2009 MIP-M-ESM- LR Max Plank Institute Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

Climate Change Modeling

Climate data availability at the EU level

The Euro-CORDEX ( http://www.euro-cordex.net/) Coordinated Downscaling Experiment provides A multimodel ensemble

• f climate scenarios

available at the 11 km horizontal resolution (EUR-11).

Based on CORDEX-EUR11 Regional Climate model results, we collected daily data covering the period 2005-2100 under the RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios

• ver the European region from 4 Regional Climate Models for the

following variables:

Field Description Acrony m Vertical level Field Unit

Precipitation

pr Surface [Kgm-2s-1]

Surface relative humidity

hurs surface [%]

Surface solar radiation

rsds surface [W/m2]

Wind module

sfcWind 10 meter [m/s]

Wind module max

sfcWindmax 10 meter [Pa]

zonal wind speed

uas 10 meter [m/s]

meridional wind speed

vas 10 meter [m/s]

2 meter Temperature

tas 2 meter [K]

2 meter Air Temperature max

tasmax 2 meter [K]

2 meter Air Temperature min

tasmin 2 meter [K]

Number of tropical nights

Ecatr surface

Number of wet days

Ecaid surface

Number of ice days

Ecarr1 surface Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report 7

Regional EURO-CORDEX models

T

• calculate the basic climate indices and apply them to the methodology, we used a set of modes so as

to optimize the result and reduce the error. The following EURO-CORDEX models were used:

• CNRM_CCLM4: Group of simulations developed by the Center National de Recherches Météorologiques
• f France. Data were produced in a daily step and include a reference period (historical data) as well as

future projections up to 2100 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

• EC-EARTH_KNMI: Group of simulations fully coupled Atmospheric-Ocean model developed by twenty-

two research Organizations from ten European countries under the lead of Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut of the Netherlands. Data were generated on a daily basis and include a reference period (historical data) and future projections up to 2100 for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

• IPSL_WRF331F: Group of simulations, developed by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace of France. Data

were produced in a daily step and include a reference period (historical data) and future projections up to 2100 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

• MPI_CCLM4: Group of simulations, developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany.

Data were generated on a daily basis and include a reference period (historical data) and future projections up to 2100 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

• MPI_REMO_2009: Group of simulations, developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in
• Germany. The atmospheric model is coupled to three difgerent hydrologic models and three ocean
• models. Data were generated in a daily step and include a reference period (historical data) and future

projections up to 2100 for RCP2.6 scenario.

8 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

• AR5_SLR

9 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

Management of climatic data

The steps followed to downscale and manage each climate index were:

• Generation of climate data with an equivalent step through the downscaling process of GCMs to

RCMs

• Conversion of climate data into NC fjles (software libraries and self-describing machine-

independent data)

• Conversion of NC fjles to Microsoft Excel data in order to be easily manageable in Microsoft

Windows environment

• Set up of all Microsoft Excel fjles in the three time horizons (short-term, medium-term and long-

term) and the historical data (reference period)

• Data quality control (errors, grid size etc.)
• Calculation of data produced to investigate the values of indices and the climatic phenomena in all

difgerent time horizons and scenarios. Data calculations were performed using the following tools:

• Pivot tables in Microsoft Excel
• SQL commands through Microsoft Access
• Python coding and object-oriented calculations in ArcGIS Pro

The process was carried out to derive thirteen main climate indices, while the last step was carried

• ut for other fjfty-seven (57) indices.

10 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

A regional climate change adaptation plan structure

Defjnition of the economy sectors and geographical areas expected to be mostly afgected by climate change Defjnition of the economy sectors and geographical areas expected to be mostly afgected by climate change

• Estimation of possible cost of

implementing measures and actions

• Potential stakeholders and

implementation bodies

• Project implementation indicators
• Estimation of possible cost of

implementing measures and actions

• Potential stakeholders and

implementation bodies

• Project implementation indicators
• Vulnerability

assessment

• Quantifjcation of the

vulnerability

• Vulnerability

assessment

• Quantifjcation of the

vulnerability Investigation of available technologies and adaptation policies by sector Investigation of available technologies and adaptation policies by sector Hierarchical selection of measures and actions per sector Hierarchical selection of measures and actions per sector Evaluation of the projected climate indices change Evaluation of the projected climate indices change  Agriculture  Forestry  Biodiversity and ecosystems  Fisheries and aquaculture  Water resources  Coastal areas  T

• urism

 Energy demand  T ransport infrastructure  Health  Urban environment  Mining industry  Culture  Insurance sector

Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report 11

Climate indices used

The list of the thirteen (13) basic climate indices is presented below. In parenthesis the data availability and the unit of calculation are reported:

• Mean temperature (daily, oC)
• Minimum temperature (daily, oC)
• Maximum temperature (daily, oC)
• Mean wind (daily, m/s)
• Maximum wind (daily, m/s)
• Mean precipitation (daily, mm)
• Mean relative humidity (daily, %)
• Ice days (annually, days)
• Tropical nights (annually, days)
• Wet days (annually, days)
• Mean solar radiation (daily,W/m2)
• Mean snowfall (daily, mm)
• Sea level rise (annually, cm)

The fjfty-seven (57) supporting indices were derived from these basic indices to evaluate climate phenomena like heatwaves, fmoods, storms, cold periods, drought, comfort and seasonal changes.

12 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

Supporting climate indices

13 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

54 Μεταβολή δείκτη ημερήσιας έντασης βροχόπτωσης (daily intensity index) ανά έτος mm/d 55 Μεταβολή αριθμού θερινών ημερών (summer days) (μέγιστη θερμοκρασία > 25 oC) d/y 56 Μεταβολή αριθμού ημερών ανά έτος με δείκτη humidex (humidex index) > 38 (ημέρες με μεγάλη δυσφορία) d/y 57 Μεταβολή αριθμού ημερών ανά έτος με δείκτη κινδύνου πυρκαγιάς Angstrom (Angstrom Index) < 2,5 (ημέρες όπου η εμφάνιση πυρκαγιάς είναι πολύ πιθανή και οι συνθήκες εμφάνισης ευνοϊκές) d/y 58 Μεταβολή αριθμού ημερών ανά έτος με μέγιστη ένταση ανέμου > 6 beaufort d/y 59 Μεταβολή μέσης θερμοκρασίας χειμώνα

• C

60 Μεταβολή μέσης μέγιστης θερινής βροχόπτωσης 48ώρου ανά έτος mm 61 Μεταβολή αριθμού καλοκαιρινών ημερών ανά έτος με μέγιστη ένταση ανέμου > 6 beaufort d/y 62 Ποσοστιαία μεταβολή μέσης ετήσιας βροχόπτωσης % 63 Ποσοστιαία μεταβολή μέσης ετήσιας χιονόπτωσης % 64 Ποσοστιαία μεταβολή μέσης μέγιστης βροχόπτωσης 48ώρου ανά έτος % 65 Ποσοστιαία μεταβολή μέσης μέγιστης βροχόπτωσης 24ώρου ανά έτος % 66 Μεταβολή μέσης μέγιστης θερμοκρασίας καλοκαιριού

• C

67 Μεταβολή αριθμού ημερών χειμώνα ανά έτος με μέγιστη ένταση ανέμου > 6 beaufort d/y 68 Μεταβολή αριθμού ημερών χειμώνα ανά έτος με μέση ένταση ανέμου > 5 beaufort d/y 69 Μεταβολή αριθμού ημερών ανά έτος με μέση ένταση ανέμου > 6 beaufort κατά την αντιπυρική περίοδο (Μάϊος – Οκτώβριος) d/y 70 Μεταβολή αριθμού ημερών καλοκαιριού ανά έτος με βροχόπτωση > 10 mm (ισχυρή βροχόπτωση) d/y

Defjnitions

• Exposure: The nature and extent to which a system is exposed to significant climate

fluctuations

• Sensitivity: The extent to which a system is affected, either negatively or positively,

by the associated climate index. The results may be direct or indirect

• Impact: Consequences of climate change to natural or human ecosystems. As far as

adaptation is concerned, one can distinguish between potential and expected impacts

• Adaptive capacity: The ability of a natural or human system to adapt to climate

change (including climate variability and extreme conditions) to mitigate possible damage, exploit any positive impacts, or cope with the consequences

• Vulnerability: The extent to which a system is vulnerable or unable to cope with the

adverse effects of climate change. Vulnerability is a function of the nature, magnitude and rate of climate change in which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity

Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report 14

Vulnerability assessment

Based on the previous slide, vulnerability can be expressed as: Vulnerability = (Sensitivity x Exposure) – Adaptive capacity However, in the context of this methodology, vulnerability has been assessed without taking into account the ability to adapt to climate change (the worst-case scenario). Therefore, the vulnerability formula used would become: Vulnerability = Sensitivity x Exposure The following steps were taken in order to assess the vulnerability of the various sectors and geographical areas of the Region to climate change:

• Selection of the sectors for which vulnerability analysis will be performed
• Selection of the most suitable climate indices to measure the impact of each climate

component on each sector

• Sensitivity evaluation for each sector to climate change. Evaluation of Sensitivity index.
• Exposure calculation for each sector to climate change. Evaluation of Exposure index.
• Vulnerability assessment for each sector and geographic area

15 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

Components of climate change

The components of climate change for which the vulnerability analysis was carried out are were the following:

• T

emperature rise

• Drought
• Strong winds
• Heatwaves
• Frost invasion
• Heavy precipitation – Floods
• Snowfall
• Sea level rise

16 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

Sectors of anthropogenic and natural environment under evaluation

• Agriculture,
• Forests,
• Reforested areas,
• Biodiversity and ecosystems,
• Fisheries and aquaculture,
• Water resources,
• Coastal areas,
• Rivers (fmoods),
• Ski related tourism,
• Summer tourism,
• Energy demand,
• Land transport,
• Ports,
• Airports,
• Public health,
• Urban environment and
• Cultural environment

17 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

Sensitivity and exposure analysis

Sensitivity analysis. The aim of this step was to assess the sensitivity expected for each sector to the difgerent components of climate change. Sensitivity assessment was done taking into consideration relative estimates reported in Greek and international literature using the following scale:

• Zero (negligible) sensitivity: 0
• Slight sensitivity: 1
• Moderate sensitivity: 2
• High sensitivity: 3
• Very high sensitivity: 4

Exposure analysis. Changes in the climate indices were assessed in the context of this study. These changes describe the extent of exposure to the climate change components. The degree of exposure was calculated for each point in the grid

• f the study area using the following scale:
• Zero (negligible) exposure: 0
• Slight exposure: 1
• Moderate exposure: 2
• High exposure: 3
• Very high exposure: 4

Scales of sensitivity and exposure analysis are then divided by four (4) in order to provide the rate of sensitivity and exposure, respectively. 18 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

Vulnerability assessment

In the context of the current study vulnerability is evaluated without taking into account the adaptive capacity to climate change (worst case). Therefore, vulnerability depends on sensitivity and exposure to climate change. Vulnerability to climate change is performed for every climatic component separately and the expression of vulnerability follows the scale reported in the following T able.

19 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

Boundaries Vulnerability description <= 0.25 Negligible 0.26 – 0.50 Low 0.51 – 1.00 Medium 1.01 – 1.50 High > 1.50 Very high (extreme)

Vulnerability assessment was undertaken with two different approaches:

• Geographic vulnerability: Investigates the geographic areas for

each sector that are most vulnerable to climate change (e.g. coastal agricultural areas of Zacharo municipality have high vulnerability in the scenario RCP8.5 in the period 2081-2100). In this case, vulnerability is calculated only for the grid points that belong to the sector under investigation.

• Sectoral vulnerability: Investigates the sectors that are most

vulnerable to climate change and to which priority should be given to measures and actions (e.g. the water resources sector is highly vulnerable in the short-term horizon in the adverse scenario). In this case, the sectoral vulnerability is the average vulnerability value of the grid points that correspond to geographic areas of the sector.

A case study in Greece

Climate indices projection (1)

Results from the evaluation and analysis of seventy (70) climate indices showed that the climate will become warmer and drier in the coming decades with a signifjcant reduction in rainfall and snowfall and an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events (mainly droughts, fmoods and heatwaves). A climate index that will also afgect signifjcantly the area is the sea level rise. Briefmy the main climate changes projected from the RCP’s evaluation are presented below.

• Average temperature in the Region of Western Greece is expected to increase in all scenarios and

time periods examined.

• Average temperature rise is expected to range from 0.45 oC (RCP2.6, 2011 – 2030) to 3.92 oC

(RCP8.5, 2081 – 2100).

• By the end of the 21st century average temperature in the Region will be kept below 2 oC, in all

periods of the stringent (RCP 2.6) and the intermediate scenario (RCP 4.5), however temperature rise will follow the corresponding global projections reaching 3.92 oC for RCP8.5 scenario.

• Maximum summer temperatures are expected to rise above the average temperature (4.51 oC,

RCP8.5, 2081-2100). The biggest increase is expected in the municipalities of Amfjlochia, Agrinio and Thermo.

• Average winter temperature is expected to increase, with the Kalavryta municipality showing the

highest increase (3.80 oC, RCP8.5, 2081-2100).

• Energy demand for cooling is expected to increase in all scenarios and time horizons considered, on

the contrary with the energy demand for heating which is expected to decrease.

21 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

Climate indices projection (2)

• The number of days with an event of fjre likely to occur will increase by about 20

days in the adverse scenario (RCP 8,5) between 2081 and 2100.

• Precipitation is expected to gradually decrease in the stringent and worst-case
• scenarios. Regional Units of Ileia as well as the municipalities of Kalavryta,

Erymanthos and West Achaia appear to be facing the biggest problem.

• Similarly, the number of wet days in the year is expected to decrease gradually
• Continuous days without precipitation are expected to increase by about 33 days in

the adverse scenario, in the time horizon 2081 – 2100.

• The biggest drought problems are expected to be encountered by the

municipalities of Aitoloakarnania and the municipality of Patra.

• In terms of wind speed no signifjcant changes are expected compared with the

reference period.

• The number of days where the maximum temperature exceeds 35 oC is expected to

increase in the long-term horizon by about 16 days in the worst-case scenario with respect to the reference period.

22 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

Climate indices projection (3)

• Even higher is expected to be the number of days with minimum temperature over 20 oC

(tropical nights) in the coming decades. The average increase ranges from eight (8) days (in the favorable and intermediate scenario in 2011-2030) to fjfty-six (56) days (in the worst- case scenario, 2081-2100).

• Changes in temperature (combined with changes in humidity) are expected to increase the

number of days in the years in which there will be great discomfort for the population.

• The number of days in the year with heavy precipitation, which may be associated with fmood

events is expected to increase in all scenarios and time periods. The highest increase is expected in the short term, even in the most favorable scenario (+ 20.85 days).

• Cold invasions (number of days with minimum daily temperature below 0 oC) will decrease in

all future scenarios. After 2080 the reduction is expected to reach up to minus 15.43 days in the worst-case scenario.

• Correspondingly snowfall is expected to decline in the intermediate and adverse scenario. In

the period 2081-2100 this reduction is expected to reach up to 81% in the unfavorable scenario

• Amount of snowfall and the number of days with snowfall will decrease. In the period 2081-

2100 days of snowfall will decrease by about 6 times in comparison with the unfavorable scenario.

• Sea level will rise in the future. The maximum rise will range from 9 cm (in 2011-2030,

regardless of the scenario) to 55 cm (in 2081-2100 for the worst-case scenario)

23 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

T emperature

24 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

Time horizon Mean temperature change in relation with the reference period RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 2011-2030 0,45 0,54 0,64 2031-2050 0,91 0,97 1,23 2081-2100 0,70 1,82 3,92 Time horizon Minimum temperature change in relation with the reference period RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 2011-2030 0,46 0,54 0,64 2031-2050 0,84 0,96 1,22 2081-2100 0,72 1,82 3,91 Time horizon Maximum temperature change in relation with the reference period RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 2011-2030 0,39 0,54 0,65 2031-2050 1,00 0,98 1,24 2081-2100 0,64 1,84 3,97

T emperature

25

RCP 4.5 RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5

Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

Sea Level Rise

26

RCP 4.5 RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5

2011-2030 2031-2050 2081-2100 0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60

Maximum sea level rise for each RCP scenario and time horizon in relation with the reference period

RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

S e a le v e l r is e ( m )

Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

Vulnerability projection – RCP 2.6

• In the short term horizon the great majority of sectors showed from negligible to

low vulnerability to climate change. The sectors of coastal areas, rivers, urban and cultural environment show medium vulnerability .

• In the medium term horizon vulnerability to climate change varies between low /

negligible to medium. Medium vulnerability is expected for the agriculture, reforested areas, biodiversity – ecosystems, water resources, rivers, urban and cultural environment sectors.

• In the long term horizon water resources sector showed high vulnerability

. Agriculture, forests, reforested areas, biodiversity – ecosystems and rivers sectors showed medium vulnerability . Other sectors showed low or negligible vulnerability to climate change.

• There are no sectors showing very high vulnerability in any of the time horizons.

Water resources sector, seems to be the most vulnerable to climate change with high vulnerability levels in the long-term time horizon.

• Fisheries – aquaculture, tourism, energy demand, transport and public health

sectors, scored the lowest vulnerability and appear to be more resilient to climate change.

27 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

Vulnerability projection – RCP 4.5

• In the short term horizon the great majority of sectors showed low vulnerability to

climate change. Agriculture, biodiversity – ecosystems, water resources, rivers, urban and cultural environment sectors show medium vulnerability.

• In the medium term horizon vulnerability to climate change varied between low /

negligible to medium. Water resources sectors is expected to face high vulnerability, while agriculture, biodiversity – ecosystems, rivers, ski related tourism, urban and cultural environment sectors showed medium vulnerability to climate change.

• In the long term horizon water resources sector showed the highest vulnerability.

Agriculture, reforested areas, biodiversity – ecosystems, fjsheries and aquaculture, tourism, urban and cultural environment sectors are expected to have medium

• vulnerability. The others sectors showed low or negligible vulnerability to climate

change.

• There are no sectors showing very high vulnerability to climate change in any time
• horizon. The water resources sector appeared to be the most vulnerable to climate

change with high vulnerability in the medium and long-term time horizon.

• Forests, summer tourism, energy demand, transport and public health sectors scored

the lowest vulnerability and appeared to be more resilient to climate change.

28 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

Vulnerability projection – RCP 8.5

• In the short term horizon the great majority of sectors showed low or

medium vulnerability to climate change. Forests, energy demand and ports sectors had negligible vulnerability. Agriculture, biodiversity – ecosystems, fjsheries – aquaculture, water resources, coastal areas, rivers, urban and cultural environment sectors showed medium vulnerability.

• In the medium term horizon, transportation and health showed low

vulnerability to climate change. Water resources sector is expected to face very high vulnerability and the ski related tourism high. Others sectors showed medium vulnerability to climate change.

• In the long term horizon agriculture, biodiversity – ecosystems, water

resources and tourism (both forms) sectors are expected to face very high vulnerability . Moreover, forests, energy demand and cultural environment sectors are expected to face high vulnerability. Others sectors showed medium vulnerability, with the exception of ports which appeared to show the best adaptation to climate change with low vulnerability levels.

29 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

Vulnerability of agriculture

30

RCP 4.5 RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5

Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report

Thank you for your attention!

31 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 5th IPCC Assessment Report