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▼❛❝r♦✲✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧✿ ❆ ♣r♦♣♦s❛❧ ❢♦r ❈❤✐❧❡ ✶ P❘❊▲■▼■◆❆❘❨ ❱❊❘❙■❖◆ ❈❛❜❡③❛s ▲✳ ✫ ▼❛rtí♥❡③ ❏✳ ❋✳ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❇❛♥❦ ♦❢ ❈❤✐❧❡ ❆✉❣✉st✱ ✷✵✶✼ ✶ ❉■❙❈▲❆■▼❊❘✿ ❚❤❡ ✈✐❡✇s ❡①♣r❡ss❡❞ ❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ♦✇♥ ❛♥❞ ❞♦ ♥♦t ♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❧② r❡♣r❡s❡♥t t❤♦s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❇❛♥❦ ♦❢ ❈❤✐❧❡ ♦r ✐ts ❇♦❛r❞✳ ▲❈ ✫ ❏❋▼❀ ❈❇❈ ❆✉❣✉st✱ ✷✵✶✼ ✶ ✴ ✷✸

❆❣❡♥❞❛ ❆❣❡♥❞❛ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❈❛❧✐❜r❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❙✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❋✐♥❛❧ ❘❡♠❛r❦s ▲❈ ✫ ❏❋▼❀ ❈❇❈ ❆✉❣✉st✱ ✷✵✶✼ ✷ ✴ ✷✸

❙✉♠♠❛r② ❙✉♠♠❛r② ◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ■♥ ❛♥ ♦t❤❡r✇✐s❡ st❛♥❞❛r❞ ❘❇❈ ♠♦❞❡❧✱ ✇❡ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❢r✐❝t✐♦♥s t♦ ❛ss❡ss t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t s❤♦❝❦s ♦♥ r❡❛❧ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ✐♥ t❤❡ ❈❤✐❧❡❛♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠②✳ ❖❜❥❡❝t✐✈❡ ❚♦ ❛♥❛❧②③❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❝❤❛♥♥❡❧s ♦❢ s❤♦❝❦s tr❛♥s♠✐ss✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❛♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠② ❛✛❡❝t❡❞ ❜② ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❢r✐❝t✐♦♥s✳ ❆❧s♦✱ ❛ss❡ss t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ ♠❛❝r♦♣r✉❞❡♥t✐❛❧ ♣♦❧✐❝②✳ ❲❤❛t ✇❡ ❞♦✿ ❲❡ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣ ❛ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♦❢ ♣r♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥✱ ❝♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛t✐♦♥✳ ❖✉r ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐♥❝♦r♣♦r❛t❡s ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❢r✐❝t✐♦♥s✿ ❉❡❢❛✉❧t ❛♥❞ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❝♦♥str❛✐♥ts✳ ❲❡ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❡ ❛ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ✐♥t❡r❜❛♥❦ ♠❛r❦❡t✿ ❚✇♦ ❜❛♥❦s ✇✐t❤ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t r✐s❦ ♣r♦✜❧❡s✳ ■t ❝❛♣t✉r❡s t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ ♠♦♥❡t❛r②✱ r❡❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♠❛❝r♦♣r✉❞❡♥t✐❛❧ s❤♦❝❦s ♦♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❞ r❡❛❧ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠②✳ ▲❈ ✫ ❏❋▼❀ ❈❇❈ ❆✉❣✉st✱ ✷✵✶✼ ✸ ✴ ✷✸

▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥ ❈♦♥t❡①t ❢♦r t❤❡ q✉❡st✐♦♥ ❈✉rr❡♥t ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ ❞♦❡s ♥♦t ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣ s❡❝t♦r ❛♥❞ ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥♦✉s ❞❡❢❛✉❧t✱ ✐♥ ❛♥ ❡♠❡r❣✐♥❣ ❝♦✉♥tr②✱ ❛❧t♦❣❡t❤❡r✳ ❯s✉❛❧❧②✱ t❤❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❢r✐❝t✐♦♥s✱ ❛s ✐♥ ❇❡r♥❛♥❦❡ ❡t✳ ❛❧✳ ✭✶✾✾✾✮ ❛♥❞ ❑✐②♦t❛❦✐ ❛♥❞ ▼♦♦r❡ ✭✷✵✶✷✮✳ ❙♦♠❡ ♠♦❞❡❧s ❢♦❧❧♦✇ ❛ ◆❡✇✲❑❡②♥❡s✐❛♥ ❢r❛♠❡✇♦r❦ ♦❢ ❛ s♠❛❧❧ ♦♣❡♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠② t❤❛t ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡s ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❢r✐❝t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ r✐❣✐❞✐t✐❡s ✭▼❡❞✐♥❛ ✫ ❙♦t♦ ✭✷✵✵✼✮ ❛♥❞ ●❛r❝í❛✲❈✐❝❝♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✹✮✮✳ ❖✉r ♣❛♣❡r ♣r♦✈✐❞❡s ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❛r② ✈✐s✐♦♥ t♦ t❤✐s ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✳ ■♥ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r✱ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ❛♥❛❧②③❡ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡❞ ♠❛❝r♦♣r✉❞❡♥t✐❛❧ r❡❣✉❧❛t✐♦♥s t♦ st✉❞② ✐ts ♦♣t✐♠❛❧✐t② ♣r♦♣❡rt✐❡s ❛s ✐♥ ●♦♦❞❤❛rt✱ ❑❛s❤②❛♣✱ ❚s♦♠♦❝♦s ❛♥❞ ❱❛r❞♦✉❧❛❦✐s ✭✷✵✶✸✮✳ ▲❈ ✫ ❏❋▼❀ ❈❇❈ ❆✉❣✉st✱ ✷✵✶✼ ✹ ✴ ✷✸

▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❜❛❝❦❣r♦✉♥❞ ❘❡❧❛t❡❞ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ ❆ ❞❡t❛✐❧❡❞ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❛❜♦✉t ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥♦✉s ❞❡❢❛✉❧t ✐s ♣r♦✈✐❞❡❞ ❜② ●♦♦❞❤❛rt ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✺✱ ✷✵✵✻❛ ❛♥❞ ✷✵✵✻❜✮✱ ❉✉❜❡② ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✺✮ ❛♥❞ ❙❤✉❜✐❦ ❛♥❞ ❲✐❧s♦♥ ✭✶✾✼✼✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❈❛s❤✲✐♥ ❆❞✈❛♥❝❡ ✭❈■❆✮ ♠♦❞❡❧ t♦ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❡ ♠♦♥❡② ✐s ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣❡❞ ✐♥ ●r❛♥❞♠♦♥t ❛♥❞ ❨♦✉♥❡s ✭✶✾✼✷✮✳ ❊s♣✐♥♦③❛ ❛♥❞ ❚s♦♠♦❝♦s ✭✷✵✶✺✮ ✐♥❝♦r♣♦r❛t❡s ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❛♥❞ ❞❡❢❛✉❧t ✐♥ ❛ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠ ❢r❛♠❡✇♦r❦✳ ❉❡ ❲❛❧q✉❡ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✵✮ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡rs ❛♥ ❡①t❡♥s✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❘❇❈ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❛♥❞ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡s ❞❡❢❛✉❧t ❛s t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❢r✐❝t✐♦♥✳ ❖✉r ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐s ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ❡♥♦✉❣❤ t♦ ❡♥❝♦♠♣❛ss ❉❡ ❲❛❧q✉❡ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✵✮ ❛♥❞ ❛❧❧♦✇ ❢♦r ♠❛❝r♦✲♣r✉❞❡♥t✐❛❧ ♣♦❧✐❝②✳ ▲❈ ✫ ❏❋▼❀ ❈❇❈ ❆✉❣✉st✱ ✷✵✶✼ ✺ ✴ ✷✸

❚❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ▼♦❞❡❧ s❡tt✐♥❣ ❚❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❋❧♦✇s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠② Central Bank OMA OMO Deposits Commercial Interbank ρ Interbank credits market Bank θ bank δ deposits market Deposits, 𝑠 𝑒 Loans Loans 𝑠 𝑑 𝑠 ℎ Household α 1 − 𝜚 𝜀 Π 𝜀 (1 − 𝜚 𝛿 )Π 𝛿 Firm γ Household β 1 − 𝜄 Π 𝜄 ▲❈ ✫ ❏❋▼❀ ❈❇❈ ❆✉❣✉st✱ ✷✵✶✼ ✻ ✴ ✷✸

❚❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❖♣t✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s ❍♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞ α ∞ ❯ α = ❊ ✵ � β t { ✉ ( ❜ α � ❡ α ❦ , t − q α � ♠❛① t ) + ✉ } ❦ , t ❜ α t , ❞ α t , q α ❦ , t t = ✵ s✳t✳✱ t − ✶ ) ❞ α t − ✶ ❘ α ❜ α t + ❞ α t ≤ ( ✶ + r ❞ ( ✶ + π t ) + ♣ ❦ t t q α ❦ , t + ( ✶ − φ γ )Π γ t + ( ✶ − φ δ )Π δ ✭✶✮ t ❝♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥ + ❞❡♣♦s✐ts ≤ r❡t✉r♥ ❢r♦♠ ❞❡♣♦s✐ts + r❡t✉r♥ ❢r♦♠ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ + ♣r♦✜ts ▲❈ ✫ ❏❋▼❀ ❈❇❈ ❆✉❣✉st✱ ✷✵✶✼ ✼ ✴ ✷✸

❚❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❖♣t✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s ❍♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞ β ∞ λ β ❯ β = ❊ ✵ � � � � � β t { ✉ ❜ β ◆ − ▲ β ¯ ✷ ( ✶ + π t ) ✷ ♠❛① [ ✵ , µ β t − ✶ ( ✶ − ν β t )] ✷ } ♠❛① + ✉ − t t ❜ β t , ▲ β t ,µ β t ,ν β t t = ✵ s✳t✳✱ µ β ❜ β t t ) + ( ✶ − φ θ )Π θ t ≤ ✭✷✮ t ( ✶ + r ❤ ❝♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ≤ ❧♦❛♥ t❛❦❡♥ ❢r♦♠ ❞❡♣♦s✐ts ❜❛♥❦ + ♣r♦✜ts ν β t µ β t − ✶ ≤ ▲ β t − ✶ ✇ t − ✶ ✭✸✮ ❧♦❛♥ r❡♣❛②♠❡♥t ≤ ❧❛❜♦r ✐♥❝♦♠❡ ◆ ✵ = ¯ ◆ ✭✹✮ ▲❈ ✫ ❏❋▼❀ ❈❇❈ ❆✉❣✉st✱ ✷✵✶✼ ✽ ✴ ✷✸

❚❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❖♣t✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s ❋✐r♠ γ ∞ λ γ ❯ γ = ❊ ✵ � ❇ t { ✉ (Π γ ✷ ( ✶ + π t ) ✷ ♠❛① [ ✵ , µ γ t − ✶ ( ✶ − ν γ t )] ✷ } ♠❛① t ) − µ γ t ,ν γ t , ❜ γ ▲ , t , ❜ γ ❦ , t , Π γ t t = ✵ s✳t✳✱ µ γ ❜ γ ▲ , t + ❜ γ t + ❡ γ ❦ , t ≤ ✭✺✮ t ✶ + r ❝ t ♠♦♥❡② s♣❡♥t ✐♥ ❧❛❜♦r ❛♥❞ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ≤ ❧♦❛♥ t❛❦❡♥ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♠❡r❝✐❛❧ ❜❛♥❦ + ❡q✉✐t② ( ✶ + π t ) − µ γ t − ✶ ν γ ② t − ✶ Π γ t t = ✭✻✮ ( ✶ + π t ) ♣r♦✜ts = ♣❡r✐♦❞ s❛❧❡s ♦❢ ❝♦♠♠♦❞✐t✐❡s − ❧♦❛♥ r❡♣❛②♠❡♥t ② t = ❆ ( ▲ γ t ) α ( ❦ γ t ) ✶ − α ; ▲ γ t = ❜ γ ✐ γ t = ❜ γ ❦ , t / ♣ γ ▲ , t / ✇ t ; ✐ t = ❦ t − ❦ t − ✶ ( ✶ − δ ); ✭✼✮ ❦ , t ❡ γ t = φ γ Π γ ✭✽✮ t ❊q✉✐t②❂❘❡t❛✐♥❡❞ ♣r♦✜ts ▲❈ ✫ ❏❋▼❀ ❈❇❈ ❆✉❣✉st✱ ✷✵✶✼ ✾ ✴ ✷✸