Quintana Capital Group, L.P.
3RD QUARTER MEETING 2011
The Petroleum Club Monday, September 12th, 2011 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.
Quintana Capital Group, L.P. 3 RD QUARTER MEETING 2011 The Petroleum - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Quintana Capital Group, L.P. 3 RD QUARTER MEETING 2011 The Petroleum Club Monday, September 12 th , 2011 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. 3 RD QUARTER MEETI NG The Petroleum Club Monday, September 12 th , 2011 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Meeting Objectives
The Petroleum Club Monday, September 12th, 2011 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.
3RD QUARTER MEETI NG
The Petroleum Club Monday, September 12th, 2011 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.
Meeting Objectives
8:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. Fund Level
Investment Level:
Establish Fund III Objectives
Fund Level Performance and Strategic Assessment
9:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. Fund Performance Return Analysis (as of 6/30/11) Exit and Return Scenarios Uncommitted Capital and Balance Sheet Current Valuations vs. Exit Scenarios (Opportunity Cost Analysis)
10:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. Strategic Assessment Investment Horizon Peer/Vintage Analysis & LP Expectations Long Term QEP Objectives (Fund III)
Investment Level Valuation and Exit Assessment
11:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. Downstream and Coal Services Talen’s (30 Min each) Taggart AmerCable 12:00 p.m. Working Lunch – to be served at 12:00 1:00 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. Oil and Gas Services MWD Services Quintana WellPro 2:30 pm to 4:00 pm Oil and Gas Upstream Irion Minerals Prize Petroleum Deep Gulf Energy I/II
Board Meeting
4:00pm – 5:00 pm Board Meeting
September 12, 2011 9:00am to 10:00am Jimmy McDonald
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Status of Funds
(including Kopper Glo Note Payable)
– $4.0 million available under the Citi facility
available for portfolio company capital calls (capital needs in excess of current liquidity will require a Fund capital call)
facility (including Chase LC’s)
– $16.6 million available under the Natixis facility
available for portfolio company capital calls (capital needs in excess of current liquidity will require a Fund capital call)
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Fund I & II Scenarios
Fund I Scenario Total Proceeds Capital Returned Pref Return Undistr Pref Profit Split Carried Interest ROI IRR GP LP GP LP LP LP LP GP Total Fund GP LP GP (Capital interest) Total Fund GP LP GP (Capital interest) Scenario I - 6-30-11 Hypothetical Liquidation (p. 5) $32.8 $597.7 $24.7 $509.7 $88.0 $67.7 $0.0 $0.0 1.2x 1.3x 1.2x 1.3x 4.9% 8.1% 4.7% 8.1% Scenario II – exit scenarios (no impairments) (p. 6) $42.7 $775.3 $24.7 $522.8 $252.5 $24.7 $0.0 $0.0 1.5x 1.7x 1.5x 1.7x 8.8% 22.0% 8.3% 11.6% Scenario III – exit scenarios (with impairments1) (p. 6) $65.2 $752.8 $24.7 $520.3 $226.9 $0.0 $5.6 $22.0 1.5x 2.6x 1.4x 1.7x 8.8% 20.1% 8.1% 11.6%
1Investment in EFH and Talen's are impaired in Scenario III.
Fund II Scenario Total Proceeds Capital Returned Pref Return Undistr Pref Profit Split Carried Interest ROI IRR GP LP GP LP LP LP LP GP Total Fund GP LP GP (Capital interest) Total Fund GP LP GP (Capital interest) Scenario I - 6-30-11 Hypothetical Liquidation (p. 7) $33.9 $164.9 $9.2 $105.2 $14.0 $0.0 $45.7 $14.9 1.7x 3.7x 1.6x 2.1x 35.9% 73.4% 29.7% 35.4% Scenario II – Chase development fee2 (p. 8) $67.9 $264.8 $9.2 $120.9 $28.6 $0.0 $115.2 $36.0 2.6x 7.4x 2.2x 3.5x 34.7% 64.9% 29.4% 36.9% Scenario III – Chase = cost (p. 9) $51.1 $221.0 $9.2 $120.9 $28.6 $0.0 $71.4 $25.0 2.1x 5.6x 1.8x 2.8x 26.3% 52.2% 21.9% 29.6% Scenario IV – Chase = 50% cost (p. 10) $45.3 $206.0 $9.2 $120.9 $28.6 $0.0 $56.4 $21.3 1.9x 4.9x 1.7x 2.6x 23.1% 47.1% 19.1% 26.9% Scenario V – Chase = 0 (p. 11) $39.6 $191.0 $9.2 $120.9 $28.8 $0.0 $41.3 $17.5 1.8x 4.3x 1.6x 2.4x 20.0% 42.2% 16.3% 24.3%
2Chase development fee scenario assumes $75 million development fee plus expenses received by Chase Power Development LLC.
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Fund I & II Scenarios - Assumptions
EXIT ASSUMPTIONS Exit Date / Distribution Date Enterprise Value Net Debt 8/8 Equity Value QEP share net of promote per 6/30/11 FAS QEP Proceeds Net of Fund Debt Previously Distributed Capital / Realized Investments Total Distributions XL Prospect 12/31/2009
12/31/2009
315,821 Gulfstream Terminals & Marketing, LLC 5/25/2011
4,407,189 IRION Minerals (partial interest) 5/25/2011
7,477,564 Cypress Eaglewood 5/25/2011
7,415,625 Stone Mountain Resources, Ltd 6/30/2011 150,510,000 18,700,000 131,810,000 26,362,000 6,843,320
Quintana WellPro 6/30/2011 90,800,000 (9,000,000) 99,800,000 92,800,000 89,490,000 9,500,000 98,990,000 Q Consolidated Oil Well Services, LLC 6/30/2011 173,800,000 21,500,000 152,300,000 142,837,000 142,837,000
Taggart Global, LLC 6/30/2011 79,240,426 6,900,000 72,340,426 34,000,000 34,000,000 1,768,793 35,768,793 AmerCable Incorporated 6/30/2011 201,823,949 122,100,000 79,723,949 43,609,000 43,609,000 687,195 44,296,195 Q Directional Drilling Company, LLC 6/30/2011 118,861,724 27,100,000 91,761,724 72,400,000 69,090,000 7,581,650 76,671,650 MWD Services, LLC (includes NES) 6/30/2011 35,000,000 (1,000,000) 36,000,000 26,600,000 25,080,070 173,298 25,253,368 Deep Gulf Energy, L.P. 6/30/2011 277,911,019 (33,200,000) 311,111,019 13,500,000 13,500,000 3,003,290 16,503,290 Kopper Glo Fuel Inc. 6/30/2011 70,926,316 10,400,000 60,526,316 48,325,000 48,325,000
Deep Gulf Energy II, L.P. 6/30/2011 211,055,726 (14,200,000) 225,255,726 9,980,000 6,049,375
Prize Petroleum, LLC 6/30/2011 160,757,211 48,400,000 112,357,211 58,819,000 56,486,437
Texas Energy Future LP 6/30/2011 35,000,000,000 34,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 4,180,000 4,180,000
IDS 6/30/2011 3,000,000
2,625,000 2,625,000
Talen's Marine & Fuel, LLC 6/30/2011 41,000,000 12,800,000 28,200,000 28,200,000 28,200,000
Team CO2, LLC 6/30/2011 8,122,511 (600,000) 8,722,511 4,363,000 3,535,500 154,166 3,689,666 IRION Minerals, LLC (remaining interest) 6/30/2011 5,060,000 (1,600,000) 6,660,000 6,660,000 6,660,000
Falcon VPP, LP 6/30/2011 209,570,000 198,300,000 11,270,000 11,270,000 2,043,015 5,488,359 7,531,374 Total QEP I 36,837,438,882 34,406,600,000 2,430,838,882 626,530,000 582,553,717 47,972,950 630,526,667
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Fund I & II Scenarios - Assumptions
EXIT ASSUMPTIONS Exit Date / Distribution Date Enterprise Value Net Debt 8/8 Equity Value QEP share net of promote QEP Proceeds Net of Fund Debt Previously Distributed Capital / Realized Investments Total Distributions XL Prospect 12/31/2009
12/31/2009
315,821 Gulfstream Terminals & Marketing, LLC 5/25/2011
4,407,189 IRION Minerals (partial interest) 5/25/2011
7,477,564 Cypress Eaglewood 5/25/2011
7,415,625 Kopper Glo Fuel Inc. 10/15/2011 70,000,000 10,000,000 60,000,000 48,640,000 48,640,000
IDS 11/11/2011 3,500,000 1,250,000 2,250,000 3,218,750 * 3,218,750
Q Consolidated Oil Well Services, LLC 12/31/2011 175,000,000 28,000,000 147,000,000 134,217,000 134,217,000
Q Directional Drilling Company, LLC 12/31/2011 120,000,000 28,000,000 92,000,000 69,471,000 66,161,000 7,581,650 73,742,650 Taggart Global, LLC 8/15/2012 100,000,000 10,000,000 90,000,000 42,300,000 42,300,000 1,768,793 44,068,793 AmerCable Incorporated 8/15/2012 250,000,000 120,000,000 130,000,000 71,110,000 71,110,000 687,195 71,797,195 Team CO2, LLC 9/30/2012 6,000,000
3,001,200 2,173,700 154,166 2,327,866 Quintana WellPro 12/31/2012 120,000,000 (5,000,000) 125,000,000 114,449,000 111,139,000 9,500,000 120,639,000 Talen's Marine & Fuel, LLC 12/31/2012 25,800,000
25,800,000 25,800,000
IRION Minerals, LLC (remaining interest) 12/31/2012 10,000,000
10,000,000 10,000,000
MWD Services, LLC 6/30/2013 25,000,000
19,050,000 19,050,000 173,298 19,223,298 Navigate Energy Services 6/30/2013 30,000,000
16,459,200 14,939,270
Stone Mountain Resources, Ltd 12/31/2013 375,000,000
75,000,000 55,481,620
Deep Gulf Energy, L.P. 12/31/2013 622,222,038
30,000,000 30,000,000 3,003,290 33,003,290 Prize Petroleum, LLC 12/31/2013 199,347,590
110,000,000 107,667,437
Deep Gulf Energy II, L.P. 12/31/2015 406,272,853
20,000,000 16,069,375
Texas Energy Future LP 12/31/2015 35,000,000,000 34,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000
Falcon VPP, LP Staggered 18,255,933
18,255,933 9,028,949 5,488,359 14,517,308 Total QEP I 37,556,398,414 34,192,250,000 3,364,148,414 813,972,083 769,996,101 47,972,950 817,969,051 *includes $1.25 million of notes receivable from IDS.
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Fund I & II Scenarios - Assumptions
EXIT ASSUMPTIONS Exit Date / Distribution Date Enterprise Value Net Debt 8/8 Equity Value QEP share net
6/30/11 FAS QEP Proceeds Net of Fund Debt Previously Distributed Capital / Realized Investments Total Distributions Mustang Creek Holdings LP 11/24/2010
9,850,000 Genesis Energy LP 11/24/2010
2,200,433 Chase Power Development LLC 6/30/2011 45,800,000 (900,000) 46,700,000 40,336,861 31,800,865
East Texas Oil & Gas LLC 6/30/2011 37,000,000 (3,500,000) 40,500,000 39,027,000 26,184,791
Quality Magnetite LLC 6/30/2011 22,500,000 1,800,000 20,700,000 17,591,000 17,591,000 5,530,073 23,121,073 Genesis Energy LP 6/30/2011 2,395,200,000 650,600,000 1,744,600,000 118,800,000 104,887,666
Q Argentina E&P Holdings 6/30/2011 1,100,000 (1,100,000) 2,200,000 2,078,975 809,060
CIM 6/30/2011 10,600,000 (3,400,000) 14,000,000 8,260,173
6/30/2011 53,000,000 24,000,000 29,000,000 2,173,395
2,565,200,000 667,500,000 1,897,700,000 228,267,404 181,273,382 17,580,506 198,853,888
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Fund I & II Scenarios - Assumptions
Scenario : Chase development fee
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EXIT ASSUMPTIONS Exit Date / Distribution Date Enterprise Value Net Debt 8/8 Equity Value QEP share net of promote QEP Proceeds Net of Fund Debt Previously Distributed Capital / Realized Investments Total Distributions Mustang Creek Holdings LP 11/24/2010
9,850,000 Genesis Energy LP 11/24/2010
2,200,433 Genesis Energy LP (partial interest) 7/22/2011
29,810,793 Genesis Energy LP (remaining interest) Staggered (a)
87,729,858
Q Argentina E&P Holdings 12/31/2011
12/31/2012 117,500,000
102,107,500 91,937,188
Quality Magnetite LLC 5/15/2013 35,000,000
34,405,000 34,405,000 5,530,073 39,935,073 East Texas Oil & Gas LLC 12/31/2013 75,033,817
72,257,566 58,337,768
CIM 12/31/2013 40,000,000 5,000,000 35,000,000 24,500,000 12,883,969
Quintana Shipping 12/31/2014 64,200,000 24,000,000 40,200,000 3,000,000
331,733,817 29,000,000 302,733,817 338,703,572 285,293,783 47,391,299 332,685,082
1Chase development fee scenario assumes $75 million development fee plus expenses received by Chase Power Development LLC.
(a) Remaining common units sold and distributed to LP's by 12/31/2012. 1st - 4th tranche waivers sold and distributed to LP's by 12/31/2012, 12/31/2013, 12/31/2014, 12/31/2015, respectively. Unit price assumed to be $23 for remaining common units and $25 for waiver units. Vesting of waiver units determined by $0 .0075 increase in distributions per quarter.
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Fund I & II Scenarios - Assumptions
Scenario : Chase = cost EXIT ASSUMPTIONS Exit Date / Distribution Date Enterprise Value Net Debt 8/8 Equity Value QEP share net of promote QEP Proceeds Net of Fund Debt Previously Distributed Capital / Realized Investments Total Distributions Mustang Creek Holdings LP 11/24/2010
9,850,000 Genesis Energy LP 11/24/2010
2,200,433 Genesis Energy LP (partial interest) 7/22/2011
29,810,793 Genesis Energy LP (remaining interest) Staggered (a)
87,729,858
Q Argentina E&P Holdings 12/31/2011
12/31/2012 47,798,459
41,536,861 31,366,549
Quality Magnetite LLC 5/15/2013 35,000,000
34,405,000 34,405,000 5,530,073 39,935,073 East Texas Oil & Gas LLC 12/31/2013 75,033,817
72,257,566 58,337,768
CIM 12/31/2013 40,000,000 5,000,000 35,000,000 24,500,000 12,883,969
Quintana Shipping 12/31/2014 64,200,000 24,000,000 40,200,000 3,000,000
262,032,276 29,000,000 233,032,276 278,132,933 224,723,144 47,391,299 272,114,443 (a) Remaining common units sold and distributed to LP's by 12/31/2012. 1st - 4th tranche waivers sold and distributed to LP's by 12/31/2012, 12/31/2013, 12/31/2014, 12/31/2015, respectively. Unit price assumed to be $23 for remaining common units and $25 for waiver units. Vesting of waiver units determined by $0 .0075 increase in distributions per quarter.
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Fund I & II Scenarios - Assumptions
Scenario : Chase = 50% cost EXIT ASSUMPTIONS Exit Date / Distribution Date Enterprise Value Net Debt 8/8 Equity Value QEP share net of promote QEP Proceeds Net of Fund Debt Previously Distributed Capital / Realized Investments Total Distributions Mustang Creek Holdings LP 11/24/2010
9,850,000 Genesis Energy LP 11/24/2010
2,200,433 Genesis Energy LP (partial interest) 7/22/2011
29,810,793 Genesis Energy LP (remaining interest) Staggered (a)
87,729,858
Q Argentina E&P Holdings 12/31/2011
12/31/2012 23,899,230
20,768,430 10,598,118
Quality Magnetite LLC 5/15/2013 35,000,000
34,405,000 34,405,000 5,530,073 39,935,073 East Texas Oil & Gas LLC 12/31/2013 75,033,817
72,257,566 58,337,768
CIM 12/31/2013 40,000,000 5,000,000 35,000,000 24,500,000 12,883,969
Quintana Shipping 12/31/2014 64,200,000 24,000,000 40,200,000 3,000,000
238,133,047 29,000,000 209,133,047 257,364,502 203,954,713 47,391,299 251,346,012 (a) Remaining common units sold and distributed to LP's by 12/31/2012. 1st - 4th tranche waivers sold and distributed to LP's by 12/31/2012, 12/31/2013, 12/31/2014, 12/31/2015, respectively. Unit price assumed to be $23 for remaining common units and $25 for waiver units. Vesting of waiver units determined by $0 .0075 increase in distributions per quarter.
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Funds I & II Scenarios - Assumptions
Scenario : Chase = 0 EXIT ASSUMPTIONS Exit Date / Distribution Date Enterprise Value Net Debt 8/8 Equity Value QEP share net of promote QEP Proceeds Net of Fund Debt Previously Distributed Capital / Realized Investments Total Distributions Mustang Creek Holdings LP 11/24/2010
9,850,000 Genesis Energy LP 11/24/2010
2,200,433 Genesis Energy LP (partial interest) 7/22/2011
29,810,793 Genesis Energy LP (remaining interest) Staggered (a)
87,729,858
Q Argentina E&P Holdings 12/31/2011
12/31/2012
5/15/2013 35,000,000
34,405,000 34,405,000 5,530,073 39,935,073 East Texas Oil & Gas LLC 12/31/2013 75,033,817
72,257,566 48,167,456
CIM 12/31/2013 40,000,000 5,000,000 35,000,000 24,500,000 12,883,969
Quintana Shipping 12/31/2014 64,200,000 24,000,000 40,200,000 3,000,000
214,233,817 29,000,000 185,233,817 236,596,072 183,186,283 47,391,299 230,577,582 (a) Remaining common units sold and distributed to LP's by 12/31/2012. 1st - 4th tranche waivers sold and distributed to LP's by 12/31/2012, 12/31/2013, 12/31/2014, 12/31/2015, respectively. Unit price assumed to be $23 for remaining common units and $25 for waiver units. Vesting of waiver units determined by $0 .0075 increase in distributions per quarter.
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September 12, 2011 10:00 am – 11:00 am Loren Soetenga Confidential – Do Not Distribute
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Expected hold periods
2011
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Fund Vintage Fund Size (Mn) First Reserve Fund XII 2008 8,821 USD First Reserve Fund XI 2006 7,800 USD Riverstone/Carlyle Global Energy and Power Fund IV 2008 6,000 USD EnCap Energy Capital Fund VII 2007 2,500 USD Quantum Energy Partners V 2008 2,500 USD Denham Commodity Partners Fund V 2008 2,022 USD EnCap Energy Capital Fund VI 2006 1,500 USD Lime Rock Partners V 2008 1,400 USD Quantum Energy Partners IV 2007 1,320 USD Quantum Resources 2006 1,200 USD Kayne Anderson Energy Fund IV 2006 950 USD Kayne Anderson Energy Fund V 2009 820 USD Quintana Capital I 2006 650 USD Lime Rock Resources 2006 450 USD Lime Rock Resources II 2009 410 USD Quintana Energy Partners II 2008 350 USD
Number of PE Funds
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Fund Vintage
DPI Called (%) Lime Rock Resources 2006 46% 102% EnCap Energy Capital Fund VI 2006 86% 88% First Reserve Fund XI 2006 33% 86% Quantum Resources 2006 6% 86% Quintana Capital I 2006 8% 83% Riverstone/Carlyle Global Energy and Power Fund IV 2008 20% 69% Lime Rock Partners V 2008 1% 64% EnCap Energy Capital Fund VII 2007 32% 63% Denham Commodity Partners Fund V 2008 31% 54% First Reserve Fund XII 2008 8% 52% Kayne Anderson Energy Fund IV 2006 0% 51% Quantum Energy Partners IV 2007 25% 39% Lime Rock Resources II 2009 0% 35% Quintana Energy Partners II 2008 6% 33% Quantum Energy Partners V 2008 13% 8% Kayne Anderson Energy Fund V 2009 0% 6%
Capital ratios – report date 12/31/10 or later
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Fund Vintage
DPI Called (%) Lime Rock Resources 2006 46% 102% EnCap Energy Capital Fund VI 2006 86% 88% First Reserve Fund XI 2006 33% 86% Quintana Capital I 2006 8% 83% Riverstone/Carlyle Global Energy and Power Fund IV 2008 20% 69% Lime Rock Partners V 2008 1% 64% EnCap Energy Capital Fund VII 2007 32% 63% Denham Commodity Partners Fund V 2008 31% 54% First Reserve Fund XII 2008 8% 52% Kayne Anderson Energy Fund IV 2006 0% 51% Lime Rock Resources II 2009 0% 35% Quintana Energy Partners II 2008 6% 33% Quantum Energy Partners V 2008 13% 8% Kayne Anderson Energy Fund V 2009 0% 6%
Capital ratios – report date 3/31/11 or later
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Fund Vintage Quartile Net IRR (%) Multiple (X) Quintana Energy Partners II 2008 1 36% 1.74x EnCap Energy Capital Fund VI 2006 1 25% 1.63x Riverstone/Carlyle Global Energy and Power Fund IV 2008 1 21% 1.5x Lime Rock Resources 2006 1 9% 1.39x Lime Rock Partners V 2008 1 25% 1.38x EnCap Energy Capital Fund VII 2007 1 16% 1.25x Quintana Capital I 2006 2 5% 1.18x Denham Commodity Partners Fund V 2008 2 10% 1.17x First Reserve Fund XI 2006 2 3% 1.08x Lime Rock Resources II 2009 n/a n/m 1.08x Quantum Energy Partners IV 2007 3 % 1.x Kayne Anderson Energy Fund IV 2006 3 ‐6% .92x First Reserve Fund XII 2008 4 ‐18% .84x Quantum Resources 2006 4 ‐11% .82x Kayne Anderson Energy Fund V 2009 n/a n/m .64x Quantum Energy Partners V 2008 4 ‐33% .42x
Performance Ratios - report date 12/30/10 or later
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Performance Ratios - report date 3/31/11 or later
Fund Vintage Quartile Net IRR (%) Multiple (X) Quintana Energy Partners II 2008 1 36% 1.74x EnCap Energy Capital Fund VI 2006 1 25% 1.63x Riverstone/Carlyle Global Energy and Power Fund IV 2008 1 21% 1.5x Lime Rock Resources 2006 1 9% 1.39x Lime Rock Partners V 2008 1 25% 1.38x EnCap Energy Capital Fund VII 2007 1 16% 1.25x Quintana Capital I 2006 2 5% 1.18x Denham Commodity Partners Fund V 2008 2 10% 1.17x First Reserve Fund XI 2006 2 3% 1.08x Lime Rock Resources II 2009 n/a n/m 1.08x Kayne Anderson Energy Fund IV 2006 3 ‐6% .92x First Reserve Fund XII 2008 4 ‐18% .84x Kayne Anderson Energy Fund V 2009 n/a n/m .64x Quantum Energy Partners V 2008 4 ‐33% .42x
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– Return of capital $450-$550m (fund I & fund II) – Be firm on exit timeline
– Placement agents – Marketing timeline
Long Term Objectives
September 12, 2011 11:00 am – 1:00 pm George Dethlefsen
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Review of Exit Assumptions
Equity Invested $47,115,387 Hold Period to Date (years) 3.5 Current FAS Equity Valuation (6/30/11) (100%) $28,200,000 Net Debt (Current) $10,700,000 Estimated FCF Yield 9.8% Projected Exit Enterprise Value $51,830,000 ROIC
(revised from exit assumptions information, which valued Talen's at less than FAS)
Projected Exit Equity Value $41,130,000 0.87x Projected Exit EV/TTM EBITDA Multiple 7.3x Exit Timing Dec‐12 (potential to be extended depending on O'Rourke Petroleum merger outcome) Implied IRR for Remaining Hold Period 28.5% Basis for Current Valuation Public Comparables EV/EBITDA Multiple 13.3x Transaction Comparables EV/EBITDA Multiple 7.3x (multiple Martin Midstream paid for L&L in Jan 2011) Exit Year EBITDA (less WC facility interest) $7,100,000 Historical and Projected Financials ($ 000's) 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Revenue $343,600 $235,100 $299,400 $441,100 $449,900 $458,900 Gross Margin % 9.8% 13.7% 10.6% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2% EBITDA (less WC facility interest) $6,300 $6,200 $2,700 $7,000 $7,100 $7,300 EBITDA % 1.8% 2.6% 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% Net Income $2,671 $2,051 ‐$3,063 $889 Interest Expense $2,987 $1,743 $2,410 $2,780 $2,500 $2,500 Debt Amortization (Paydown) $1,436 $808 $2,400 $2,400 $2,400 CapEx $11,600 $13,200 $7,900 $5,300 $5,400 $5,500 Free Cash Flow Estimate ‐$3,480 ‐$3,200 ‐$3,100 Last Valuation Date / Hold Period Assumption 6/30/2011 12/31/2012 Equity Value ‐$28,200,000 $41,130,000 Implied IRR 28.5%
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Strategic Growth Initiatives
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Key Milestones
product lines and activities Jan-12
rationalizing assets Dec-11
Dec-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
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Risks to the Exit Plan
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Review of Exit Assumptions
Equity Invested $47,500,000 Hold Period to Date (years) 4.5 Current FAS Equity Valuation (6/30/11) (100%) $80,000,000 Net Debt (Current) $10,000,000 Weighted Average Cost of Capital (6/30) 25.1% Projected Exit Enterprise Value $100,000,000 ROIC Projected Exit Equity Value $90,000,000 0.9x
(excludes distributions)
Exit Year TTM EBITDA $22,634,000 Projected Exit EV/TTM EBITDA Multiple 4.4x Exit Year Forward EBITDA $10,500,000 Projected Exit EV/Forward EBITDA Multiple 9.5x Exit Timing Aug‐12 Implied IRR for Remaining Hold Period 11.0% Basis for Current Valuation Public Comparables EV/EBITDA Multiple 8.0x Transaction Comparables EV/EBITDA Multiple 7.9x FAS Projections Historical and Projected Financials ($ 000's) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Revenue $171,131 $244,699 $422,472 $369,661 $413,101 $350,000 $385,000 Gross Margin % 13% 15% 13% 9% 14% 11% 10% EBITDA ‐$5,650 $5,049 $15,861 $4,159 $22,634 $10,500 $11,600 EBITDA % ‐3.3% 2.1% 3.8% 1.1% 5.5% 3.0% 3.0% Net Income ‐$6,500 $2,662 $12,125 ‐$1,591 $14,415 ‐ ‐ CapEx $2,270 $1,721 $2,634 $1,583 $2,148 $1,300 $1,500 Backlog at 12/31 $145,438 $202,062 $188,833 $217,724 $234,000 Gross Profit Backlog at 12/31 $20,866 $27,392 $25,875 $28,869 $30,088 Prior Year Backlog GP as % of Actual GP 68% 58% 52% 75% 50% Last Valuation Date / Hold Period Assumption 6/30/2011 8/15/2012 Equity Value ‐$80,000,000 $90,000,000 Implied IRR 11.0%
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Strategic Growth Initiatives
annual operating income
more in 2012
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Key Milestones
Target Date
litigation, and excess G&A Jan -12
Dec-11
Dec-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Mar-12
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Risks to the Exit Plan
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Review of Exit Assumptions
Equity Invested $52,386,000 Hold Period to Date (years) 4.1 Current FAS Equity Valuation (6/30/11) (54.6%) $43,609,000 Net Debt (Current) $124,292,000 Cost of Capital 19.2% Projected Exit Enterprise Value $250,000,000 ROIC Projected Exit Equity Value $125,708,000 1.3x Projected Exit EV/TTM EBITDA Multiple 8.7x Exit Timing Aug‐12 Implied IRR for Remaining Hold Period 49.5% Basis for Current Valuation Public Comparables EV/EBITDA Multiple 7.0x Transaction Comparables EV/EBITDA Multiple 8.7x Exit Year EBITDA ($ 000's) $31,700 Historical and Projected Financials ($ 000's) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Revenue $202,797 $232,202 $155,331 $184,703 $253,700 $286,900 $256,800 Contribution Margin % 47.7% 44.9% 47.1% 45.2% 42.3% 43.9% 43.9% EBITDA $30,800 $31,700 $23,400 $21,000 $25,600 $31,700 $36,300 EBITDA % 15.2% 13.7% 15.1% 11.4% 10.1% 11.0% 14.1% Net Income ‐$5,500 $15,600 ‐$3,000 ‐$1,100 $4,800 $9,300 $12,500 CapEx $13,828 $6,807 $2,801 $3,022 $4,469 $3,419 $3,500 Taxes NA NA $700 NA $3,200 $6,200 $8,300 Last Valuation Date / Hold Period Assumption 6/30/2011 8/15/2012 Equity Value ‐$43,609,000 $68,636,568 Implied IRR 49.5%
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Strategic Growth Initiatives
assemblies manufacturer
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Key Milestones
Target Date
Dec-11
Dec-11
sell prior to Dec-12) Jun-12
potential buyers) Dec-11
Jun-12
Olympus) Dec-11
Dec-11
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Risks to the Exit Plan
September 12, 2011 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm Steve Thompson and Chris Baker
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6/30/2011 MWD & NES FAS Overview
Equity Invested $27,900,000 Hold Period to Date (years) 4 Current FAS Equity Valuation (6/30/11) (100%) $28,210,830 Cash (6/30/11) $1,011,905 Debt (6/30/11) $0 Ownership QEP 76.2% Mgmt 23.8%
Valuation Summary - MWD Services, LLC - 06.30.2011 Valuation Gross Net Equity QEP Equity Relative Applicable Valuation Method ($MM) Value Ownership Value Weighting Value Discounted Cash Flow - Multiple Method $23.2 78.3% $18.2 17.5% $3.2 Discounted Cash Flow - Perpetual Growth Method $13.9 78.3% $10.9 17.5% $1.9 Precedent Transaction Comparables - 6/30/11 LTM EBITDA $24.7 78.3% $19.3 35.0% $6.8 Public Trading Comparables - 6/30/11 LTM EBITDA $30.0 78.3% $23.5 15.0% $3.5 Public Trading Comparables - 2011E EBITDA $17.2 78.3% $13.4 15.0% $2.0 Implied Valuation Recommendation 100.0% $17.4 Investment in NES 13.8 $ 78.3% $10.8 100.0% $10.8 Total Value Recommendation $28.2
Basis for Current FAS Valuation Public Comparables EV/2011 EBITDA Multiple 6.4x Public Comparables EV/LTM EBITDA Multiple 8.0x Transaction Comparables EV/LTM EBITDA Multiple 6.6x WACC 15.0% 2011P EBITDA $2,671,767 FAS 157 Implied Enterprise Value Multiples LTM 7.3x 2011E 10.2x FAS 157 Implied Enterprise Value Multiples (Excl. NES) LTM 5.7x 2011E 7.9x
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lost customers
– MWDS lost 10 “Follow-me” rigs this year due to tool reliability issues (7 for Integrity, 3 for DDS, plus 1 job for Tri-City); Appendix I details drop in utilization. – Subsequently MWDS quarantined (“Q’d”) 7 boxes (14 strings) until they determined root cause. – Despite these issues, MWDS has recently picked up 7 jobs for Wolverine and Helmer and has additional work promised for 6 additional jobs once tools are available. – As of 9/7/11 all Q’d tools have been released back into the fleet. – Achieve stable utilization above 55% and correct MWDS market perception prior to marketing Company.
– Single board design – High temperature mwd – EM proto-type by 1/1/2012
NES creating a new directional platform
– Creates a directional platform with proprietary technology and scale providing NES with the tool run hours needed to prove commerciality of their mwd tool. – MWDS/NES/QEP to provide a business plan to enter the directional space by 10/31/2011
Milestones/Growth Initiatives Threats / Risks
tools post their review and analysis.
independent service providers delaying NES mwd commerciality and test runs.
water requiring ~$42 million equity exit value for NES stand-alone in order for c-unit holders to be in the money.
MWDS/NES merger.
Milestones/Growth and Threats
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Summary Financials & Projected Investment Returns
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E* 2012P Revenue $11.0 $13.4 $7.9 $14.1 $14.5 $15.58 EBITDA 3.3 $3.8 $0.9 $3.7 $3.3 $4.0 EBITDA % 30.1% 28.5% 11.7% 26.3% 22.5% 25.7% Monthly EBITDA / Kit** $16,346.2 $11,733.8 $2,854.5 $11,649.0 $9,740.8 $11,500.0 * Estimated based on Y.T.D. As of 6/30 plus annual average run rate ** Represents Y.T.D. through June
* Fleet of 29 kits. ** QEP makes $2mm investment in NES over next 12 months. NES achieved run-rate Revenue of $10.4 million in July 2011.
* 6/30/2013 exit.
Case 1 $26.2 $29.4 $32.6 $35.8 $39.1 Case 2 $37.7 $42.2 $46.8 $51.4 $55.9 Case 3 $49.1 $55.1 $61.0 $66.9 $72.8 Case 4 $60.6 $67.9 $75.1 $82.4 $89.7 Case 5 $72.1 $80.7 $89.3 $97.9 $106.5 Case 1
2.6% 8.1% 13.3% 18.3% Case 2 16.2% 23.0% 29.5% 35.6% 41.5% Case 3 32.7% 40.4% 47.7% 54.7% 61.4% Case 4 47.3% 55.9% 64.0% 71.7% 79.1% Case 5 60.7% 70.0% 78.8% 87.2% 95.2% Revenue NES 2013 Revenue Exit Multiple $8.0 $9.0 $10.0 $11.0 $12.0 2.0x $14.0 $16.0 $18.0 $20.0 $22.0 3.0x $22.0 $25.0 $28.0 $31.0 $34.0 4.0x $30.0 $34.0 $38.0 $42.0 $46.0 5.0x $38.0 $43.0 $48.0 $53.0 $58.0 6.0x $46.0 $52.0 $58.0 $64.0 $70.0 EBITDA Monthly EBITDA/Kit Exit Multiple $10,000.0 $11,000.0 $12,000.0 $13,000.0 $14,000.0 2.5x $12.2 $13.4 $14.6 $15.8 $17.1 3.5x $15.7 $17.2 $18.8 $20.4 $21.9 4.5x $19.1 $21.1 $23.0 $24.9 $26.8 5.5x $22.6 $24.9 $27.1 $29.4 $31.7 6.5x $26.1 $28.7 $31.3 $33.9 $36.5
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MWD / NES Combined Directional Business Model Case
97% covered off by MWDS’ projected valuation.
proprietary technology providing for:
– Creates a directional platform with proprietary technology and scale providing NES with the tool run hours needed to prove commerciality of their mwd tool. – Larger buyer universe for the combined companies as a standalone MWDS transaction will not hit the radar of most buyers and a full service directional platform could command a higher multiple.
EBITDA Multiple Monthly EBITDA/Kit 59.8% $40,000.0 $45,000.0 $50,000.0 $55,000.0 $60,000.0 3.5x 29.6% 36.5% 43.0% 49.2% 55.0% 4.5x 44.8% 52.5% 59.8% 66.6% 73.1% 5.5x 58.2% 66.6% 74.5% 81.9% 89.0% 6.5x 70.3% 79.3% 87.8% 95.7% 103.3% 7.5x 81.3% 90.9% 99.9% 108.4% 116.4%
* 12/31/2013 exit.
EBITDA Multiple Monthly EBITDA/Kit 20460.0% $40,000.0 $45,000.0 $50,000.0 $55,000.0 $60,000.0 3.5x $104.2 $117.2 $130.2 $143.2 $156.2 4.5x $133.9 $150.7 $167.4 $184.1 $200.9 5.5x $163.7 $184.1 $204.6 $225.1 $245.5 6.5x $193.4 $217.6 $241.8 $266.0 $290.2 7.5x $223.2 $251.1 $279.0 $306.9 $334.8
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MWD Utilization
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Comparable Transactions
NES Comparable Transactions
Date Acquiror Target
TEV/ TTM Revenue
6/24/2008 Schlumberger Extreme Engineering 8.0x 2/2/2008 Flotek Teledrift 5.7x 9/15/2007 GE Sondex 4.5x 6/30/2004 Sondex Geolink 2.6x Mean 5.2x Median 5.1x
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DDC Monthly EDITDA / Kit
Historical DDC EBITDA / Kit
2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012P EBITDA ($MM) $18.6 $4.4 $12.4 $25.1 $34.0 Kit 28 26 32 44 52 Monthly EBITDA / KIT $55,357 $14,103 $32,292 $47,538 $54,487 Average('08,'10-'12) $47,418
Investment Level Valuation & Exit Assessment
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– B-unit alignment – Based on IRR threshold rather than ROI, B- unit contribution relative to Tom’s A-units is minimal – Broad process vs. focused process vs. merger IPO; Tom has material concerns regarding a broad marketing effort – Tom’s base salary, expense acct, etc. are sufficient to allow him to “time” the exit to maximize returns – Succession planning ($5million key man insurance) – Ensure exit incentives are aligned via a transaction bonus (to be shared amongst all senior management)
utilization lower, 3 rigs idled and 4 others disrupted by instability – Many operators are waiting on 2011 election results and union solutions to contract rigs
rig market. Rumor is that Archer is moving GWES pressure pumping and completion assets to Argentina, potential for Saxon, and other NA drilling firms to chase Argentine shale market
embraced a strategy “bidding utilization at all costs”
him with a lower level manager to manage workover business (potential positive)
Exit Risks and Threats Exit Discussion
sale or merger in 2012 once: – Rig #20 is constructed and contracted, – Rigs 18 and 19 are re-contracted, and – Overall contracted fleet utilization reaches 65-80%, and/or absent longer term contracts the track record for short term work demonstrates acceptable rig utilization capacity.
Exit Assumptions & Threats
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6/30/2011 FAS Overview
* Includes cash held at IPE. Valuation Summary Equity Relative Applicable Valuation Method ($m) Value Weighting Value Discounted Cash Flow (Average Value) $94.4 70.0% $66.1 Public Trading Comparables $119.8 10.0% $12.0 Precedent Transaction Comparables $108.5 20.0% $21.7 Implied Valuation - Consolidated 100% $99.8 Implied ROI - Consolidated 1.60x Management A-Unit Value $3.5 Management B-Unit Value $3.5 Net Value to QEP $92.8 Implied QEP ROI 1.54x
Equity Invested $62,441,731 Hold Period to Date (years) 5 Current FAS Equity Valuation (6/30/11) (100%) $99,767,925 Cash (6/30/11)* $18,343,449 Debt (6/30/11) $9,388,200 A‐Unit Ownership QEP 96.5% Tom Murphy 3.5% Basis for Current FAS Valuation Public Comparables EV/2011 EBITDA Multiple 4.8x Public Comparables EV/LTM EBITDA Multiple 8.1x Transaction Comparables EV/LTM EBITDA Multiple 4.9x WACC 22.4% 2011P EBITDA $17,092,000 FAS 157 Implied Enterprise Value Multiples LTM 4.4x 2011E 5.3x
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Historical Results & Projections
utilizing Tom’s latest update for day rates and EBITDA margin assumptions. – Note: historical financial results yielded much higher EBITDA margins and total nominal cash flow on a smaller rig fleet relative to current forward projections due to Tom’s view on the market and pricing pressure. – Utilizing historical day rates and EBITDA margin assumptions for drilling and workover rigs, QWP’s fleet has a total annual cash flow capacity of approximately $47 million.
(USD in thousands) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Total Revenue 64,336.6 55,379.9 78,308.2 73,595.8 79,369.5 80,735.7 Growth Rate (13.9%) 41.4% (6.0%) 7.8% 1.7% Direct Costs 37,750.3 32,403.9 49,519.8 57,717.0 51,380.9 51,240.5 EBITDA 26,586.3 22,976.0 28,788.4 15,878.8 20,131.2 21,522.1 % Margin 41.3% 41.5% 36.8% 21.6% 25.4% 26.7%
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Projected Investment Returns
* Long-term historical fleet utilization of ~65%. 2012 Exit 2013 Exit 2012 Exit 2013 Exit Fleet Utilization Exit Multiple ‐20% ‐10% LT Average* + 10% + 20% 4.0x 73.7 $ 77.9 $ 104.0 $ 126.9 $ 128.2 $ 4.5x 79.7 84.6 114.1 139.6 141.5 5.0x 85.6 91.2 124.1 152.4 154.8 5.5x 91.5 97.9 134.2 165.2 168.1 6.0x 97.4 104.5 144.3 177.9 181.4 Fleet Utilization Exit Multiple ‐20% ‐10% LT Average* + 10% + 20% 4.0x 84.0 $ 89.1 $ 119.5 $ 147.9 $ 150.0 $ 4.5x 90.4 96.3 130.2 161.5 164.2 5.0x 96.8 103.5 141.0 175.1 178.4 5.5x 103.2 110.6 151.7 188.7 192.6 6.0x 109.6 117.8 162.5 202.2 206.8 Fleet Utilization Exit Multiple ‐20% ‐10% LT Average* + 10% + 20% 4.0x (18.2%) (15.1%) 2.8% 17.3% 18.1% 4.5x (13.9%) (10.4%) 9.3% 25.0% 26.1% 5.0x (9.7%) (5.8%) 15.6% 32.5% 33.9% 5.5x (5.6%) (1.3%) 21.7% 39.7% 41.4% 6.0x (1.6%) 3.1% 27.7% 46.8% 48.7% Fleet Utilization Exit Multiple ‐20% ‐10% LT Average* + 10% + 20% 4.0x (10.8%) (7.2%) 12.7% 29.9% 31.1% 4.5x (6.3%) (2.3%) 19.3% 37.7% 39.2% 5.0x (2.0%) 2.4% 25.8% 45.2% 47.1% 5.5x 2.3% 7.1% 32.1% 52.6% 54.7% 6.0x 6.4% 11.7% 38.2% 59.8% 62.2%
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Projected Investment Returns – NAV
2012 Exit 2013 Exit
# of Rigs Value / Rig Total # of Rigs Value / Rig Total Drilling Rigs 9 $11.4 $102.6 Drilling Rigs 9 $11.4 $102.6 Workover Rig 9 $1.0 $9.0 Workover Rig 9 $1.0 $9.0 Pulling Rigs 2 $1.0 $2.0 Pulling Rigs 2 $1.0 $2.0 Rig value $113.6 Rig value $113.6 Working Capital (12/31/12) $25.0 Working Capital (12/31/13) $25.5 Top Drives 3 $1.5 $4.5 Top Drives 3 $1.5 $4.5 Net Debt (12/31/12)
Net Debt (12/31/13)
Equity Value $166.6 Equity Value Total $177.0 Discount To Bronco Valuation: Discount To Bronco Valuation: 10% $149.92 10% $159.28 15% $141.59 15% $150.43 20% $133.26 20% $141.58
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Projected Investment Returns – Maximum Cash Flow Potential* (100% Utilization)
at 100% utilization. Exit Year Exit Multiple 2012 2013 4.0x 224.4 $ 250.2 $ 4.5x 247.9 273.5 5.0x 271.5 296.8 5.5x 295.0 320.0 6.0x 318.5 343.3
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2011 Budgeted Utilization vs. Actual Utilization Y.T.D.
QUINTANA WELLPRO Current Contract Schedule & Expected Utilization (Expected Case) Date: 1/1/11 FY2011 Rig Base Type D HRS Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Total Rig 1 Neuquen Workover 7.0 D 24 Hrs
100% 100% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
95.8% Rig 2 Neuquen Workover 7.0 D 24 Hrs
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
55.4% Rig 3 Neuquen Workover 7.0 D 24 Hrs
0% 0% 0% 0% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
63.3% Rig 4 Comodoro Pulling 7.0 D 24 Hrs
100% 100% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
95.8% Rig 5 Neuquen Pulling 7.0 D 24 Hrs
76% 80% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
92.2% Rig 6 Neuquen Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs
0% 18% 0% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
72.7% Rig 7 Comodoro Workover 7.0 D 24 Hrs
0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
33.3% Rig 8 Comodoro Workover 7.0 D 24 Hrs
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 50% 50%
12.5% Rig 9 Chile Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs
0% 12% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
80.2% Rig 10 Comodoro Workover 7.0 D 24 Hrs
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 50%
8.3% Rig 11 Comodoro Workover 7.0 D 24 Hrs
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50%
4.2% Rig 12 Chile Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
47.5% Rig 13 Neuquen Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs
100% 100% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
95.8% Rig 14 Neuquen Workover 7.0 D 24 Hrs
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
39.6% Rig 15 Comodoro Workover 7.0 D 24 Hrs
100% 100% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
95.8% Rig 16 Chile Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs
0% 0% 0% 0% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
63.3% Rig 17 Neuquen Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 95% 95% 95%
23.8% Rig 18 Neuquen Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs
100% 100% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
95.8% Rig 19 Neuquen Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs
100% 100% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
95.8% Rig 20 Neuquen Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
39.6% Average: 33.8% 35.5% 38.0% 42.8% 54.8% 59.5% 64.3% 73.8% 73.8% 81.0% 83.5% 86.0% 60.5% QUINTANA WELLPRO Updated Contract Schedule & Expected Utilization Date: 7/31/11 FY2011 Rig Base Type D HRS Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Total Rig 1 Neuquen Workover 7.0 D 24 Hrs 95% 100% 99% 98% 97% 99% 100% 98.2% Rig 2 Neuquen Workover 7.0 D 24 Hrs 0% 0% 0% 98% 100% 100% 100% 56.9% Rig 3 Neuquen Workover 5.0 D 24 Hrs 0% 0% 30% 100% 100% 100% 100% 61.5% Rig 4 Comodoro Pulling 7.0 D 24 Hrs 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 100% 99.6% Rig 5 Neuquen Pulling 7.0 D 24 Hrs 57% 67% 100% 99% 98% 98% 98% 88.2% Rig 6 Neuquen Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs 0% 18% 67% 100% 100% 100% 51% 62.3% Rig 7 Comodoro Workover 7.0 D 24 Hrs 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% Rig 8 Comodoro Workover 7.0 D 24 Hrs 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% Rig 9 Chile Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs 0% 12% 100% 100% 80% 0% 0% 41.8% Rig 10 Comodoro Workover 7.0 D 24 Hrs 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% Rig 11 Comodoro Workover 7.0 D 24 Hrs 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% Rig 12 Chile Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% Rig 13 Neuquen Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs 100% 100% 100% 98% 100% 80% 0% 82.5% Rig 14 Neuquen Workover 7.0 D 24 Hrs 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% Rig 15 Comodoro Workover 7.0 D 24 Hrs 100% 99% 100% 100% 98% 100% 99% 99.5% Rig 16 Chile Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs 0% 0% 0% 92% 100% 100% 100% 56.0% Rig 17 Neuquen Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs 0% 0% 0% 0% 70% 93% 99% 37.3% Rig 18 Neuquen Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs 100% 97% 100% 100% 99% 13% 99% 86.9% Rig 19 Neuquen Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs 100% 90% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 98.4% Rig 20 Neuquen Drilling 7.0 D 24 Hrs 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% Average: 34.3% 36.0% 47.2% 62.4% 65.2% 56.9% 55.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 48.5% Regimen Contract Counterparty Regimen Contract Counterparty
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Current Active Rigs and Contract Tenor
Rig Status Date: 09/04/11 Contracted / Counterparty Remaining Comments (Status of contract, tender market for rig, expectations for default/repricing requests, etc) Standby / Contract Tendering Tenor Rig 1 Contracted Entre Lomas 1 Normal Operations. Rig 2 Contracted San Jorge 2 Preparing to mobilize for San Jorge. Rig 3 Contracted Medanito 2 Normal Operations. Rig 4 Contracted Sinopec 3 Operating with risk of social unrest. Rig 5 Contracted Entre Lomas 1 Normal Operations. Rig 6 Tendering Damaged mast after rig move. Under repair in Neuquen. Rig 7 Tendering Ready in Las Heras Yard. Marketing. Rig 8 Contracted Entre Lomas 2 Normal Operations. Rig 9 Tendering Ready in Punta Arenas Yard. Marketing. Rig 10 Contracted Crown Point 1 Force majeure for Crown Point due to social unrest. Rig 11 Tendering Ready in Las Heras Yard. Marketing. Rig 12 Tendering In Rio Grande yard. Marketing. Rig 13 Contracted Crown Point 1 Force majeure for Crown Point due to social unrest. Rig 14 Tendering Ready in Neuquen Yard. Marketing. Rig 15 Contracted Sinopec 3 Operating with risk of social unrest. Rig 16 Contracted Medanito 2 Normal Operations. Rig 17 Tendering Ready in Neuquen Yard. Marketing. Rig 18 Contracted San Jorge 1 Normal Operations. Rig 19 Contracted Apache 1 Drilling last well under well-to-well contract for Apache. Marketing. Rig 20 Construction On Hold Rigging up in Neuquén yard. Started SCR and raised mast. De-bugging SCR. Testing rig equipment. Preparing to install top drive. One engine has factory flaw. Dealer repairing under warranty
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American O&G markets.
Original Investment Thesis Original Risks & Mitigants
hostility toward the US; present relations with Chile (violated gas export agreement) and Bolivia (nervous that Argentina will import gas and re-sell to Chile) are strained; tax laws (i.e., see below point about export tax duties); union labor
specific sectors (e.g., El Ente Nacional Regulador de la Electridad (ENRE) and El Ente Nacional Regulador del Gas (ENARGAS); American Petroleum Institute services/equipment specifications; two year mast inspections, pollution control, night move restrictions and specific operating procedures are among regulatory requirements
production activities affect the drilling service industry; rates depend on rig supply/demand, equipment condition, and service/safety record; equipment purchases might encounter time delays or cost fluctuations due to current strength in global oil and gas markets
likely key customers and interest is strong; should the market slacken, QWP’s equipment (though additive to the overall Argentine fleet) will remain under contract longer as it is higher quality than mom-and-pops’ and other competitors’ equipment
should foster more direct investment, stability in, and demand for the Argentine peso (already down from a high of 3.88 Pesos:$US1 to 2.97:1 today); payment for drilling services will be based on dollars so there will be a currency risk re: US$
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periods and the ability to obtain long term contracts and high mobilization fees
– Largely the result of transferring the investment from a Robertson family holding to a QEP portfolio company.
Material Differences to Plan Original EBITDA & Rig Count Projections/Results
Year End Rig Count 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011P Original Projections 11 13 15 17 17 Actual Results 13 17 19 19 20
$3.5 $8.0 $10.7 $12.5 $13.6 $13.8 $26.6 $23.0 $28.8 $15.9 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E
Original Proj. Actuals
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QWP will follow a disciplined strategy toward creating value for its stakeholders:
Secondarily, QWP strategy includes the following principles:
Original Business Strategy Original Growth Initiatives
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2011 Budget
Actual Actual Actual Actual Budget Budget Budget Budget Budget Budget Budget Budget Budget Ene'11 Feb'11 Mar'11 Abr'11 May'11 Jun'11 Jul'11 Ago'11 Sep'11 Oct'11 Nov'11 Dic'11 FY2011 Revenues Well Service Revenue 1,423.3 1,514.0 1,590.7 2,007.5 1,904.7 2,344.4 2,553.5 2,716.9 2,503.0 2,709.3 2,644.6 2,678.5 26,590.3 Drilling Revenues 1,598.7 2,093.8 4,067.8 5,242.9 4,361.5 2,857.9 2,639.5 3,022.6 4,315.4 5,665.2 5,495.5 5,644.8 47,005.6 Mobilizat ion Revenues 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ot her Revenues 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TOTAL REVENUES 3,022.0 3,607.7 5,658.4 7,250.4 6,266.2 5,202.3 5,193.0 5,739.5 6,818.4 8,374.5 8,140.1 8,323.3 73,595.8 Direct Cost s Labor Cost s 1,961.1 2,256.5 2,418.0 3,449.4 2,836.2 2,119.4 2,188.7 2,765.2 3,202.7 3,275.8 3,677.2 3,605.8 33,756.0 Equipment Cost s 459.4 718.0 829.2 784.2 975.2 855.9 855.6 935.6 1,103.8 1,402.8 1,377.7 1,423.3 11,720.7 Ot her Cost s 179.3 155.3 361.8 227.3 548.9 648.9 559.3 561.8 595.4 727.1 709.4 728.3 6,002.9 TOTAL DIRECT COSTS 2,599.8 3,129.8 3,609.0 4,460.9 4,360.4 3,624.2 3,603.6 4,262.6 4,901.8 5,405.6 5,764.3 5,757.5 51,479.6 GROSS MARGIN 422.2 477.9 2,049.4 2,789.5 1,905.8 1,578.1 1,589.4 1,476.9 1,916.5 2,968.9 2,375.8 2,565.8 22,116.2 14.0% 13.2% 36.2% 38.5% 30.4% 30.3% 30.6% 25.7% 28.1% 35.5% 29.2% 30.8% 30.1% SG&A Salaries and Payroll Taxes 277.3 342.3 386.8 479.4 287.5 286.8 286.4 345.0 352.5 331.9 389.6 382.0 4,147.5 Ot her 197.0 173.0 271.6 215.3 211.9 213.6 214.6 215.9 216.6 218.3 220.1 222.1 2,589.9 Tot al G&A 474.2 515.3 658.4 694.7 499.4 500.4 501.0 560.9 569.1 550.2 609.8 604.1 6,737.4 EBITDA (52.0) (37.4) 1,391.0 2,094.8 1,406.4 1,077.7 1,088.4 916.0 1,347.5 2,418.7 1,766.0 1,961.7 15,378.8
24.6% 28.9% 22.4% 20.7% 21.0% 16.0% 19.8% 28.9% 21.7% 23.6% 20.9% DD&A 452.5 452.5 452.5 452.5 452.5 470.9 541.7 541.7 541.7 541.7 541.7 541.7 5,983.6 Ot her Income/ Expense 64.1 64.2 63.7 71.8 73.1 303.4 302.0 305.6 306.8 76.4 76.2 72.3 1,779.5 Income Tax (171.6) (208.6) 78.1 466.4 308.3 106.2 85.7 24.0 174.6 630.2 401.9 471.7 2,367.0 EBIT (397.0) (345.6) 796.6 1,104.0 572.5 197.2 159.1 44.7 324.3 1,170.4 746.3 876.0 5,248.6
14.1% 15.2% 9.1% 3.8% 3.1% 0.8% 4.8% 14.0% 9.2% 10.5% 7.1%
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Balance Sheet / Covenant Projections
Budget Budget Budget Budget 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Assets Cash and Banks 20,765 15,784 12,997 11,221 Account Receivable 11,584 19,317 20,635 25,361 Inventory Parts & Supplies 11,739 11,717 10,937 10,037 VAT 171 Other Current Assets 5,404 6,555 7,198 7,198 Work in Progress (Capex) 8,311 3,981 7,696 8,781 Equipment & Other No Current Assets 43,599 50,543 48,918 49,493 Total Assets 101,573 107,896 108,381 112,091 Liabilities Accounts Payable (165) 3,404 3,643 4,197 Salaries/ Payroll Taxes Payable 2,291 2,406 3,555 3,988 Taxes Payables (1,717) 106 884 VAT 201 800 1,019 Accrued Expense 7,449 6,767 6,017 6,017 Loan Standard Bank 10,562 9,388 8,215 7,041 Other Liabilities 1,003 1,013 1,013 1,013 Total Liabilities 19,423 23,285 23,242 24,159 Stockholders Equity Common Stock 44,806 44,806 44,806 44,806 Retained Earnings 38,060 38,381 38,381 38,381 YTD Net Income (717) 1,424 1,952 4,745 Total Shareholders Equity 82,150 84,611 85,139 87,932 Total Liabilities and S/H Equity 101,573 107,896 108,381 112,091 Financial Covenants - Loan Debt 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Senior Debt Coverage Ratio 0.56 0.75 1.03 0.91 Liabilities 12,138.78 13,114.39 13,582.26 13,945.10 Ebitda 21,862.46 17,384.93 13,143.12 15,378.78 Requirement < 2,50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 Senior Debt Interest Coverage Ratio 23.15 17.41 11.75 14.34 Ebitda 21,862.46 17,384.93 13,143.12 15,378.78 Capex 8,688.99 8,505.81 7,975.00 9,760.00 Interest Expense 569.17 510.03 439.71 391.86 Requirement > 4,00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 VTL Ratio 3.45 3.88 4.43 5.17 Value + Reserve 36,408.00 36,408.00 36,408.00 36,408.00 Amount of All Outstanding Loans 10,561.76 9,388.24 8,214.71 7,041.18 Requirement > 1,25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 Tangible Net Worth Assets 101,573.08 107,896.48 108,381.32 112,090.99 Liabilities 19,423.47 23,285.50 23,242.25 24,159.21 Minimun Tangible Net Worth 22,000.00 22,000.00 22,000.00 22,000.00 Excess 60,149.61 62,610.98 63,139.07 65,931.79 Leverage Ratio 0.56 0.75 1.03 0.91 Requirement < 2,50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
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Market Overview Historical Rig Count*
– Forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% from 2010 to 2012.
exploration in the country. – Oil prices are projected to increase at a CAGR of 4% from 2011 through 2026
announced initiatives to explore for unconventional oil and gas in Argentina
Rig Count Outlook – U.S. and Latin America*
Source: Smithbits Rig Count 1,892 1,881 1,942 2,068 1,990 1,257 932 1,035 1,195 1,409 1,588 1,736 1,801 1,760 376 373 403 430 448 432 425 431 435 442 441 447 460 471 96 90 90 90 81 65 51 56 60 71 79 87 85 83 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 U.S. Latin America Argentina
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 2012
Latin American Rig Count U.S. Rig Count US Latin America
G&G Consulting Oil Price Forecasts
$20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $/Bbl Base Case Upside Case Downside Case Actual Source: Tudor Pickering & Holt Research Source: G&G Consulting
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Argentine Drilling Rig Market*
Fleet Contracted Market Share Contractor Size Rigs % Total % Contracted % San Antonio 42 33 79% 36% 38% DLS 21 18 86% 18% 21% H&P 9 4 44% 8% 5% Quintana WellPro 9 7 78% 8% 8% Nabors 8 4 50% 7% 5% YPF 7 2 29% 6% 2% Key 6 5 83% 5% 6% Ensign 5 5 100% 4% 6% Petreven 4 4 100% 3% 5% Venver 3 2 67% 3% 2% Sinopec 1 1 100% 1% 1% Estrella 1 1 100% 1% 1% Total 116 86 74% 100% 100% Fleet Contracted Market Share Contractor Size Rigs % Total % Contracted % San Antonio 113 98 87% 41% 45% DLS 45 43 96% 16% 20% Key 33 23 70% 12% 11% Venver 12 9 75% 4% 4% Emepa 11 9 82% 4% 4% Quintana WellPro 11 6 55% 4% 3% Nabors 10 7 70% 4% 3% YPF 8 4 50% 3% 2% Oil 6 3 50% 2% 1% Taker 5 5 100% 2% 2% Ensign 4 3 75% 1% 1% Estrella 3 3 100% 1% 1% Geopatagonia 3 0% 1% 0% Macrico 3 3 100% 1% 1% Petroneu 3 2 67% 1% 1% SPS 2 1 50% 1% 0% Other 6 0% 2% 0% Total 278 219 79% 100% 100%
Argentine Workover Rig Market*
*Data for reference purposes, note fleet size and contracted rig numbers as of April 2011 LP meeting
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Fleet Overview Transaction Analysis
Bronco Acquisition Overview
September 12, 2011 2:30 pm – 4:00 pm Brock Morris and Stephen Dexter
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Projected Investment Returns by Year
Irion Minerals LLC Exit Analysis ($'000) ($ in thousands)
Dec‐11 Dec‐12 Dec‐13 Dec‐14 Dec‐15 Dec‐16 Dec‐17 Dec‐18 Dec‐19 Dec‐20
Exit year Yearly Cash Flow $1,008 $4,678 $7,153 $8,498 $8,961 $5,069 $3,248 $2,382 $1,850 $1,483 Net Proved Reserves (MBoe) 935.8 864.0 759.5 636.9 508.3 432.0 379.5 338.4 304.2 274.9 Net Production (Boe/d) 76.7 249.0 312.6 353.3 284.1 169.3 126.7 102.6 86.8 75.4 % PDP Reserves 17.8% 34.3% 54.2% 79.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Exit Assumptions (1) Proved Reserves ($/Boe) $6.94 $10.55 $15.05 $17.73 $17.73 $17.73 $17.73 $17.73 $17.73 $17.73 Producing ($/Boed) $111,325 $111,988 $94,538 $89,062 $89,062 $89,062 $89,062 $89,062 $89,062 $89,062 PV Discount Rate 22.4% 19.9% 16.5% 12.2% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% % value captured 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Exit Value Weightings Reserves 33% $6,496 $9,119 $11,427 $11,292 $9,013 $7,660 $6,729 $6,000 $5,394 $4,874 Production 33% $8,535 $27,885 $29,552 $31,469 $25,301 $15,076 $11,282 $9,139 $7,727 $6,715 PV of Reserve Report Cash Flows 33% $9,963 $14,702 $18,607 $21,900 $21,742 $17,995 $15,855 $14,450 $13,489 $12,838 Weighted Value 100% $8,331 $17,235 $19,862 $21,554 $18,685 $13,577 $11,289 $9,863 $8,870 $8,143 Net Debt (251) ‐ (683) (2,700) (7,881) (12,950) (16,198) (18,581) (20,430) (21,913) Net Equity Value Reserves $6,747 $9,119 $12,109 $13,993 $16,894 $20,610 $22,927 $24,580 $25,824 $26,787 Production $8,786 $27,885 $30,234 $34,170 $33,182 $28,026 $27,481 $27,719 $28,157 $28,628 PV of Reserve Report Cash Flows $10,214 $14,702 $19,289 $24,601 $29,623 $30,945 $32,053 $33,030 $33,919 $34,751 Weighted Value $8,583 $17,235 $20,544 $24,254 $26,566 $26,527 $27,487 $28,443 $29,300 $30,056 Invested Equity 6,500 7,511 7,520 7,520 7,520 7,520 7,520 7,520 7,520 7,520 Irion Minerals LLC Exit Valuation Analysis (2) ROI Reserves 2.2x 2.2x 2.6x 2.9x 3.2x 3.7x 4.0x 4.3x 4.4x 4.6x Production 2.5x 4.7x 5.0x 5.5x 5.4x 4.7x 4.6x 4.7x 4.7x 4.8x PV of Reserve Report Cash Flows 2.7x 3.0x 3.6x 4.3x 4.9x 5.1x 5.3x 5.4x 5.5x 5.6x Weighted Value 2.5x 3.3x 3.7x 4.2x 4.5x 4.5x 4.6x 4.8x 4.9x 5.0x IRR Reserves 25.0% 24.4% 25.4% 24.3% 24.0% 23.8% 22.8% 21.6% 20.4% 19.3% Production 29.9% 47.9% 41.4% 37.5% 32.6% 27.2% 24.5% 22.6% 21.1% 19.8% PV of Reserve Report Cash Flows 33.1% 33.2% 32.9% 32.3% 31.0% 28.3% 26.1% 24.2% 22.6% 21.2% Weighted Value 29.5% 36.5% 34.0% 32.1% 29.6% 26.6% 24.5% 22.9% 21.4% 20.2% Average MOIC 2.5x 3.3x 3.7x 4.2x 4.5x 4.5x 4.6x 4.8x 4.9x 5.0x Average IRR 29.4% 35.5% 33.4% 31.6% 29.3% 26.5% 24.5% 22.8% 21.4% 20.1% (1) Exit multiples based on a precedent transaction comps which are correlated to % PDP Reserves & PV Discount Rates which are correlated to % PDP Reserves (2) IRRs and ROIs reflect $7.478mm distribution made in 1Q 2011.
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Estimated Period-Over-Period Value Accretion
Estimated Period‐Over‐Period Value Accretion of Irion Minerals, LLC Investment ($ in thousands) 6/30/11 YE 2011 YE 2012 YE 2013 YE 2014 YE 2015 FAS Value
Period End Valuation (Weighted Value) $6,660 $8,583 $17,235 $20,544 $24,254 $26,566 Less: Incremental Capital Invested $0 $0 (1,011) (9) ‐ ‐ Net Period End Valuation (Weighted Value) $6,660 $8,583 $16,224 $20,535 $24,254 $26,566 Annualized Period‐Over‐Period Growth / (Decline) NA 66.07% 89.04% 26.57% 18.11% 9.53%
$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 6/30/11 YE 2011 YE 2012 YE 2013 YE 2014 YE 2015 QEP Exit Assumption ‐ 12/30/2012
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Major Assumptions Behind Exit Analysis
Major Assumption Category Modeled Assumption Risks Related to Assumption Upside Related to Assumption
Wells Drilled / Development Plan 49 Wells Drilled on 11,426 Gross Acres (~233 Acre Spacing) [See Drilling Schedule Below]
is not in control
the pace
development
develop the Munson acreage (~27 of 49 wells) due to lease related issues
could possibly accelerate the pace
development (relative to QEP’s forecast)
shale sections would substantially increase the number of locations to develop Reserves (EUR / Well) 271 Mboe Type Curve
few wells
curve assumptions being utilized for economics
relative to their ~270 Mboe / well type curve
curve for the play Commodity Prices 2011 - $93.56 / Bbl 2012 - $90.06 / Bbl 2013 - $92.21 / Bbl 2014 - $92.78 / Bbl 2015 - $93.39 / Bbl
flows and likely necessitate additional fund capital to fund the development program
commodity prices would enhance economics of investment Assumed Exit Multiples Reserves - $6.94 / Proved Boe – $17.73 / Proved Boe Production - $89,062 / Boed – $111,325 / Boed Present Value – PV-22.4% to PV- 8.0%
not an aggressive acquirer of producing assets
universe for small, non-op interest is limited vs. buyers for operated assets
ascribing value to upside opportunities
sell side advisors, which could impair the efficiency of the marketing process
approach in valuing the assets
scale (and resulting superior valuations) could be realized by adding the Irion assets to a marketing process for Prize Petroleum, LLC
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Wells Drilled / Year
Irion Minerals LLC Modeled Development Program
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Additional Considerations Regarding Exit Timing
Exit Valuation Considerations
upside to the Irion Minerals assets. Timing and number of these upper and lower Wolfcamp shale tests must be taken into consideration when contemplating the timing of an exit event.
Execution on any of these expansion opportunities could potentially extend the exit horizon for the Irion investment as: (i) adequate testing / development of any new acreage would be necessary to maximize value and (ii) separate monetization events of existing and new Wolfcamp shale assets would not take advantage of potential premium value associated with asset scale.
ascribe significant value to undeveloped upside. Accordingly, the balance of producing vs. non-producing reserves must be considered when contemplating an exit.
Potential Impediments to Investment Exit
non-operated assets.
quality advisor capable of running an efficient, competitive process is key in maximizing value upon exit.
E&P Team’s Thoughts & Recommendation
Minerals assets on the market.
monetization of Prize Petroleum.
C t f it l d t f MLP b (l i l b f P i ’ t ) ld l d t i d
Investment Level Valuation & Exit Assessment
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Projected Investment Returns by Year
Prize Petroleum, LLC Management Milestons & Resulting Exit Analysis ($'000) Prize Petroleum LLC Forecasted Equity Returns ($ in thousands)
Dec‐11 Dec‐12 Jun‐13
($ in thousands)
Dec‐11 Dec‐12 Jun‐13
Exit year Exit year Prize Management Goals / Milestones QEP Equity Ownership % 52.71% 52.71% 52.71% Daily Production (Boe/d) 1,477 1,835 2,000 Proved Reserve (Mboe) 15,857.0 16,754.6 17,203.4 QEP Net Exit Values (Equity Values) (2) Tier 1 $50,259 $66,778 $74,407 Exit Multiples ‐ MLP Production Based Exit Multiples (1) Tier 2 $55,984 $72,404 $78,604 $95,000 / Flowing Boed $140,315 $174,325 $190,000 Tier 3 $61,027 $78,030 $83,629 $100,000 / Flowing Boed $147,700 $183,500 $200,000 Tier 4 $66,071 $81,297 $89,015 $105,000 / Flowing Boed $155,085 $192,675 $210,000 Tier 5 $71,114 $86,430 $94,401 $110,000 / Flowing Boed $162,470 $201,850 $220,000 $115,000 / Flowing Boed $169,855 $211,025 $230,000 Forecasted QEP Rates of Return Tier 1 ‐0.1% 5.9% 7.4% Exit Multiples ‐ MLP Reserve Based Exit Multiples (1) Tier 2 2.7% 7.6% 8.5% $10.00 / Proven Boe $158,570 $167,546 $172,034 Tier 3 5.0% 9.3% 9.8% $11.00 / Proven Boe $174,427 $184,301 $189,237 Tier 4 7.1% 10.2% 11.1% $12.00 / Proven Boe $190,284 $201,055 $206,441 Tier 5 9.2% 11.6% 12.3% $13.00 / Proven Boe $206,141 $217,810 $223,644 $14.00 / Proven Boe $221,998 $234,564 $240,847 Forecasted QEP Raturn on Investment Tier 1 1.00x 1.32x 1.47x Average Gross Exit Values (Enterprise Values) Tier 2 1.11x 1.43x 1.56x Tier 1 $149,443 $170,936 $181,017 Tier 3 1.21x 1.55x 1.66x Tier 2 $161,064 $183,900 $194,619 Tier 4 1.31x 1.61x 1.76x Tier 3 $172,685 $196,865 $208,220 Tier 5 1.41x 1.71x 1.87x Tier 4 $184,306 $209,830 $221,822 (2) QEP Net Exit Values account for distributions to management incentive Tier 5 $195,927 $222,795 $235,424 Forecasted Net Debt $51,000 $36,000 $28,500 Average Gross Exit Values (Equity Values) Tier 1 $98,443 $134,936 $152,517 Tier 2 $110,064 $147,900 $166,119 Tier 3 $121,685 $160,865 $179,720 Tier 4 $133,306 $173,830 $193,322 Tier 5 $144,927 $186,795 $206,924 (1) Base case (Tier III) multiples based on median values from comparable transaction comps (see last page of presentation)
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Estimated Period-Over-Period Value Accretion
Estimated Period‐Over‐Period Value Accretion of Prize Petroleum, LLC Investment ($ in thousands) 6/30/2011 YE 2011 YE 2012 6/30/2013 FAS Value
Period End Valuation (Tier III) $58,819 $61,027 $78,030 $83,629 Less: Incremental Capital Invested $0 ‐ ‐ Net Period End Valuation (Tier III) $58,819 $61,027 $78,030 $83,629 Annualized Period‐Over‐Period Growth / (Decline) NM 7.65% 27.86% 14.87% (1) QEP's Exit Assumption assumes that Prize is able to further bolster equity value through accretive, bolt‐on acquisitions
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 6/30/2011 YE 2011 YE 2012 6/30/2013 QEP Exit Assumption ‐ 12/30/2013 (1)
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Major Assumptions Behind Exit Analysis
Major Assumption Category Modeled Assumption Risks Related to Assumption Upside Related to Assumption
Production Increases Reserve Report Production + Low Resistivity Woodbine / Subclarksville Waterflood Contribution [Production Breakdown Below]
assumes unrisked execution
production enhancement and undeveloped
Resistivity Woodbine / Subclarksville production wedge is largely not in the reserve report, is in the very early stages of testing, and the ultimate potential of these opportunities is unknown.
Resistivity Woodbine / Subclarksville developments have the potential to be substantial and contribute more meaningfully to future production.
management from prioritizing production enhancement of the Homer and Rich fields.
Prize team is currently focused
accretive, bolt-on acquisitions that could contribute significant, incremental production volumes. Reserves Management has goal of increasing proven reserves by 6% per annum
management’s results in executing undeveloped and non-producing opportunities generally underperformed reserve report estimates.
execute on all identified reserve additions.
Resistivity Woodbine / Subclarksville developments could represent a meaningful increase in reserve report volumes.
Prize team is currently focused
accretive, bolt-on acquisitions that could meaningfully add to Prize’s reserves. Assumed Exit Multiples Precedent transactions in OK, TX, and LA between $50mm and $500mm since 2005; R/P >20 years; and % Oil > 65%.
$84.10 / Bbl. Multiples will likely degrade if prices dip below this average.
(logical buyers) cost
capital, negatively affecting valuation.
values could limit buyer’s ability to give full value based
assets’ PV and reserve metric valuation.
5 year strip of precedent transactions = $84.10 / Bbl.
ability to pay (publically traded valuations) is, on average, substantially higher than precedent transaction values ($20.66 / Proven Boe & ~$150,000 / Flowing Boed as of 6/30/11).
could improve exit valuation if accretive and if they serve to shorten Company R/P.
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Additional Considerations Regarding Exit Timing
Exit Valuation Considerations / Milestones enhanced value of the assets upon completion. This work needs to be completed before an educated buyer could give Prize full value for undeveloped and non-producing opportunities in the reserve report.
and exploiting upside within the Neches field. Sufficient time to do the same work on the Homer and Rich fields would likely lead to additional enhanced value for Prize upon exit.
potential associated with a low resistivity zone at the top of the Woodbine section and the re-initiation of a Subclarksville waterflood that was abandoned by Exxon in the mid-to-late 1960’s. Either of these projects could meaningfully increase reserves and production in the Neches field.
development and has recently submitted offers on a number of property packages. Major theme of the business development efforts to date has been to shorten the R/P of the Company’s asset base by acquiring shorter-lived, out-of-favor natural gas assets. Potential Impediments to Investment Exit
incentives structure could lead to some misalignment with QEP at some very specific points in the spectrum of returns (primarily related to two “catch-up” points in the distribution waterfall).
capital for E&P MLPs (logical acquirer for Prize’s assets) which would lead to lower valuations for the asset. E&P Team’s Thoughts & Recommendation
Woodbine and the Subclarksville waterflood to ensure maximum potential value upon exit.
projects at the Neches and Homer fields need to be completed and need enough time to adequately demonstrate the associated cost savings.
bolt-on, accretive acquisition opportunities that could help justify higher valuations from potential buyers when considering acquisition multiples.
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Appendix A: Precedent Transactions Analysis
Average Transaction Proved % Proved Proved Reserve TV/Daily Boe 5 Yr. Strip Date Buyer Seller Location Value Reserves % Oil Developed R/P Value Produced @ Transaction (MMBoe) (Years) ($/Proved Boe) ($/boed) Feb‐11 Linn Energy LLC Undisclosed Permian $238.00 14.0 88.0 48.0 32.2 $16.98 $144,242.40 $99.81 Oct‐10 Berry Petroleum Company Undisclosed (Various) Mid‐Continent $180.00 N/A 76.0 N/A N/A N/A $150,000.00 $87.12 Sep‐10 Linn Energy LLC Undisclosed (Three parties) Mid‐Continent $352.20 30.0 72.0 23.3 24.9 $11.74 $106,727.27 $84.35 Aug‐10 Energen Corporation; Energen Resources Corporation Undisclosed private company Mid‐Continent $185.00 18.0 86.6 10.9 54.7 $10.29 $205,555.56 $80.27 Jul‐10 Linn Energy LLC Undisclosed Gulf Coast $95.00 8.0 93.0 100.0 24.4 $11.88 $105,555.56 $81.69 Jul‐10 Linn Energy LLC Undisclosed Mid‐Continent $90.00 7.0 78.0 28.0 20.2 $12.86 $94,736.84 $78.93 May‐10 PDC Energy Undisclosed private company Mid‐Continent $75.00 8.5 70.0 N/A 25.9 $8.82 $83,333.33 $78.09 Jan‐10 Berry Petroleum Company Undisclosed private company Mid‐Continent $126.00 11.2 85.0 23.0 23.6 $11.25 $96,923.08 $90.46 Dec‐09 Denbury Resources Incorporated Wapiti Energy LLC Gulf Coast $409.55 20.0 90.0 100.0 21.9 $20.48 $163,820.80 $88.86 Sep‐09 Pioneer Southwest Energy Partners LP Pioneer Natural Resources Company Mid‐Continent $171.20 18.9 85.0 37.0 39.8 $9.06 $131,692.31 $77.21 Aug‐09 Linn Energy LLC Forest Oil Corporation Mid‐Continent $113.70 10.0 86.0 58.0 20.3 $11.37 $84,222.22 $83.02 Dec‐07 Mariner Energy Inc Undisclosed Mid‐Continent $122.50 16.0 75.0 45.0 35.1 $7.66 $98,000.00 $87.52 Dec‐07 Linn Energy LLC Lamamco Drilling Company Mid‐Continent $552.00 50.0 88.0 70.0 34.2 $11.04 $138,000.00 $87.13 Dec‐07 Windsor Permian LLC Undisclosed Mid‐Continent $85.00 6.9 87.0 23.0 23.6 $12.32 $106,250.00 $85.46 Dec‐07 Gulfport Energy Corporation Undisclosed Mid‐Continent $85.00 6.9 87.0 23.0 23.6 $12.32 $106,250.00 $85.46 Nov‐07 Pioneer Natural Resources Company Cimarex Energy Co Mid‐Continent $90.00 15.0 100.0 20.0 58.7 $6.00 $128,571.43 $84.64 Jun‐06 Foothills Resources Inc Texas American Resources Company Gulf Coast $62.00 5.1 97.4 66.1 20.1 $12.08 $88,571.43 $69.77 Deal Count 17 Average $178.36 15.3 84.9 45.0 30.2 $11.63 $119,556.01 84.10 Median $122.50 12.6 86.6 37.0 24.6 $11.56 $106,250.00 84.64 Note: Transactions between $50mm and $500mm in OK, TX, LA since 2005; R/P >20 years; % Oil > 65%. Source: IHS – John S. Herolds.
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Projected Investment Returns (DGE Management Projections)
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Estimated Value Accretion
Estimated Value Accretion of Deep Gulf Energy, LP Investment ($ in thousands) 6/30/2011 YE 2013 YE 2013 FAS Value (1) All Dry Holes All Successful Period End Valuation $16,500 $19,140 $28,833 Less: Incremental Capital Invested $0 $0 $0 Net Period End Valuation $16,500 $19,140 $28,833 Annualized Period‐Over‐Period Growth / (Decline) NA 6.12% 25.02% (1) 6/30/2011 FAS Value +$3.0mm of distributions previously received from DGE I.
$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 6/30/2011 YE 2013 ‐ All Dry Holes YE 2013 ‐ All Successful QEP Exit Assumption ‐ 12/30/2013 (1)
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Major Assumptions Behind Exit Analysis
Major Assumption Category Modeled Assumption Risks Related to Assumption Upside Related to Assumption
Operating & Capital Assumptions (Incremental Production, Reserves, & Capital) Danny II (50% POS) & Perseides (50% POS) are drilled in November 2011 & September 2012, respectively
could be unsuccessful exploration wells and cost could be in excess of budgeted levels.
drilling the Perseides well.
damaged infrastructure and substantial downtime for currently producing wells.
with forecasting well results and, consequently, future cash flows.
could perform better than current forecasts. Commodity Prices [See Charts Below]
below strip pricing. However, 46% of remaining 2011 and 28%
2012 gas production is currently hedged at $5.50 and $5.27 respectively.
in ~$14.00 LLS premium that they are currently receiving relative to NYMEX prices. Assumed Exit Multiples Remaining Production is sold at PV-25% in 2013
process surrounding short lived, fully developed GOM assets.
assumed exit.
ascribed to the Mississippi Lime assets by DGE management.
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Additional Considerations Regarding Exit Timing
Exit Valuation Considerations / Milestones
ultimate timing of the exit from this investment will be driven by execution (or lack there of) on these three remaining initiatives.
stake in the business limits our ability to control the decisions surrounding exit.
Potential Impediments to Investment Exit
maximum profits from the investment regardless of the resulting IRR for the equity sponsor.
management potentially pushing for an exit date beyond 2013.
E&P Team’s Thoughts & Recommendation
prior to any contemplated exit event.
the Company from our position on the Board of Directors.
alternatives to an outright sales process, (ii) universe of interested parties given the nature of the assets, and (iii) reasonable valuation expectations for the assets.
Investment Level Valuation & Exit Assessment
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Projected Investment Returns (DGE II Management Projections)
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Estimated Value Accretion
Estimated Value Accretion of Deep Gulf Energy II, LLC Investment ($ in thousands) 6/30/2011 YE 2016 YE 2016 FAS Value All Dry Holes All Successful Period End Valuation $9,980 $10,284 $63,733 Less: Incremental Capital Invested $0 ($424) ($1,484) Net Period End Valuation $9,980 $10,708 $62,249 Annualized Period‐Over‐Period Growth / (Decline) NA 1.29% 39.41%
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 6/30/2011 YE 2016 ‐ All Dry Holes YE 2016 ‐ All Successful QEP Exit Assumption ‐ 12/30/2015 (1)
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Major Assumptions Behind Exit Analysis
Major Assumption Category Modeled Assumption Risks Related to Assumption Upside Related to Assumption
Operating & Capital Assumptions (Incremental Production, Reserves, & Capital)
Prospect POS Spud Date
the wells remaining in inventory are exploratory in nature with substantial risks related to size, costs, and timing.
cause delays in drilling DGE II’s remaining inventory of projects.
damaged infrastructure and substantial downtime for currently producing wells.
with forecasting well results and, consequently, future cash flows.
could perform better than current forecast.
Danny II 50% Nov-11 Perseides 50% Nov-11 Marmalard 50% Dec-11 SOB 2 50% Sept-12 Troubador 70% Mar-12 Leatherneck 33% June-12
Commodity Prices [See Charts Below]
below strip pricing. However, DGE II plans to mitigate some of this risk through an active hedging program.
in ~$14.00 LLS premium that they are currently receiving relative to NYMEX prices. Assumed Exit Multiples Remaining Production is sold at PV-25% in 2016
upon the status
DGE II’s exploration portfolio, it may be difficult to run a competitive auction process surrounding short lived, fully developed GOM assets.
assumed exit.
ascribed to the Mississippi Lime assets by DGE II management.
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Additional Considerations Regarding Exit Timing
Exit Valuation Considerations / Milestones
dependent upon the success of its upcoming exploration program.
decrease in natural gas prices, (ii) delays associated with infrastructure damage from Hurricane Ike, (iii) overestimation of reserves at the Noonan project, and (iv) mechanical issues related to the Bass Lite project.
capital / liquidity of between $8.6mm (all dry holes) and $43.1mm (Perseides, SOB 2, and Marmalard successful). If the shortfall was covered 100% by equity holders (and QEP decided to fund its share of the shortfall), QEP would have the opportunity to fund between $424,000 and $2,118,650 to cover its portion of additional liquidity for the business.
QEP’s minority stake in the business limits our ability to control the decisions surrounding exit.
Potential Impediments to Investment Exit
to generate the maximum profits from the investment regardless of the resulting IRR for the equity sponsor.
E&P Team’s Thoughts & Recommendation
Accordingly, success in the go-forward program is paramount to generating positive returns
direction and exit alternatives for the investment from our position on the Board of Directors.
next several weeks and the E&P team will be presenting our thoughts on this plan for Fund II Investment Committee consideration.