[PPT] - Quarterly Northwest Report Independent School 4Q15 District PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow

Northwest Independent School District

Quarterly Report 4Q15

SLIDE 2

Economic Conditions – DFW Area

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Unemployment Rate

0.2%

99,000 new jobs National rate 1.8%

Job Growth

2.9%

2,713 more than 2014

Annualized Home Starts

26,840

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

U.S. 5.4% Texas 4.1% DFW MSA 4.0% Fort Worth 0.2%

SLIDE 3

DFW New Home Ranking Report

ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q15

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*Adjusted based on additional research by Templeton Demographics staff (Added McElvey Ranch 2,000 lots, Wellington 1,374 lots, Stardust Ranch 143 lots, Entrada (Westlake) 10 lots; Subtracted 1,533 lots from Tradition)

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future

1

Frisco ISD 2,934 2,818 3,977 8,450

2

Denton ISD 1,894 1,675 3,033 16,140

3

Prosper ISD 1,723 1,385 2,874 32,944

4

Northwest ISD 1,223 1,153 1,933 26,757*

5

Dallas ISD 1,235 1,015 2,234 5,949

6

Lewisville ISD 1,320 1,007 2,151 2,989

7

Keller ISD 953 959 960 2,282

8

Eagle Mtn. ‐ Saginaw ISD 943 868 1,297 19,518

9

Little Elm ISD 1,075 856 1,556 4,746

10

Rockwall ISD 709 643 1,819 8,330

11

Wylie ISD 664 539 884 4,612

12

Mansfield ISD 635 526 1,028 5,509

13

McKinney ISD 591 509 1,219 6,868

14

Crowley ISD 559 495 1,220 8,031

15

Allen ISD 488 467 644 2,063

16

Plano ISD 481 445 945 2,877

17

Forney ISD 425 439 654 12,260

18

Midlothian ISD 461 432 1,255 20,908

19

Burleson ISD 480 417 642 3,324

20

HEB ISD 424 411 438 4,909

SLIDE 4

New Housing Activity 4Q15

4Q15 starts are the highest 4th Quarter starts since 2007
4Q15 Closings increased 11% from 3Q15 and posted the highest closing rate of 2015
Inventory remains in a good position with 6.2 month’s supply

Northwest ISD

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100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Starts Closings Inventory

Starts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Closings 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q 297 230 251 288 357 230 1Q 229 224 220 225 269 287 2Q 357 268 293 362 282 307 2Q 349 230 331 318 341 263 3Q 264 285 286 347 350 375 3Q 348 263 332 299 347 283 4Q 204 254 257 270 239 311 4Q 277 295 258 344 273 315 Total 1,122 1,037 1,087 1,267 1,228 1,223 Total 1,203 1,012 1,141 1,186 1,230 1,148

SLIDE 5

Annual Closing Distribution 4Q15

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Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Rank Subdivision Annual Closings Quarter Closings VDL 1 Dorado Ranch 122 39 10 2 Willow Ridge Estates (Ft. Worth) 88 23 18 3 Trophy Club/Highlands at (Beck) 85 22 61 4 Harmon Ranch 79 22 255 5 Highlands Glen 61 23 6 6 Reata Meadows 60 16 1 7 Trails of Fossil Creek 57 17 151 8 Villages Woodland Springs/Woodlands 57 14 6 9 Briarwyck (Roanoke) 53 13 19 10 Fairway Ranch 46 6 106 TOTALS 708 195 633

SLIDE 6

Vacant Developed Lots 4Q15

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Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15 (Ranked by remaining VDL) Rank Subdivision Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Canyon Falls (Northlake) 24 343 689 2 Harmon Ranch 79 255 115 3 Trails of Fossil Creek 57 151 439 4 Harvest Meadows (NWISD) 30 132 440 5 Fairway Ranch 46 106 290 6 Sendera Ranch (Sendera Ranch) 12 81 5,024 7 Ranches, The 2 79 29 8 Trophy Club/Canterbury Hills 28 78 9 Avery Ranch 15 68 10 Chadwick Farms 22 66 87 TOTALS 315 1,359 7,113

SLIDE 7

Future Lots 4Q15

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Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Sendera Ranch (Sendera Ranch) 81 5,024 2 Sendera Ranch (Thompson) 37 3,640 3 Tradition 2,984 4 McKelvey Ranch 2,000 5 Wellington (Ft. Worth) 1,700 6 Bonds Ranch/Bonds Ranch (NWISD) 1,162 7 Champions Circle/Oak Creek Trails 825 8 Berkshire 791 9 Canyon Falls (Northlake) 343 689 10 Shale Creek 4 600 TOTALS 465 19,337

SLIDE 8

Overall Housing Data

By Elementary Attendance Zone

Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category

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Elementary Zone Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter Closings Inventory Vacant Dev. Lots Future Lots BECK 164 40 153 50 87 86 102 CLARA LOVE 1 1 321 COX 148 43 143 25 81 243 815 GRANGER 47 6 57 14 18 6 HASLET 26 3 42 4 11 60 1,322 HATFIELD 7 32 1 3 6,633 HUGHES 23 23 3 23 82 137 JUSTIN 150 51 88 38 88 307 1,092 LAKEVIEW 48 18 40 8 41 127 315 NANCE 49 7 64 17 16 157 1,747 PETERSON 119 11 165 39 22 256 278 PRAIRIE VIEW 4 4 3 1 4 24 786 ROANOKE 127 39 77 37 75 384 699 SCHLUTER 195 19 212 62 51 38 3,564 SENDERA RANCH 2 12 4 81 5,024 SEVEN HILLS 13 4 15 5 7 42 282 THOMPSON 100 46 46 15 73 37 3,640

Grand Totals

1,223 314 1,153 316 601 1,933 26,757

SLIDE 9

Active Subdivision

Berkshire– City of Fort Worth

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Berkshire

791 total lots
Ground work currently underway
First phase of 299 lots expected to

be delivered in March 2016

Estimated velocity rates:
2016 = 192 homes
2017 = 192 homes
2018= 192 homes
2019 = 192 homes
2020 = 71 homes
First residents expected fall 2016
$275K-$350K
Appx. 15-20 lots fall in Eagle

Mountain-Saginaw ISD

Nance Elementary

Eagle Mountain-Saginaw ISD

SLIDE 10

Future Subdivision

Harvest by Hillwood

10

Argyle ISD

Harvest

650 total lots
440 future lots
132 vacant developed lots
30 occupied homes
30 homes under construction
30 4Q starts
78 annual starts
Split between Argyle ISD

and Northwest ISD

AISD = 2,350 lots
NWISD = 650 lots
2 current students in NWISD
Justin Elementary

SLIDE 11

Future Subdivision

Tradition – City of Ft. Worth

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Tradition

2,984 total lots (estimate)
300 apartment units (estimate)
395 total acres
Stratford Land Development
Sale of land expected to complete in

April 2016

Developer anticipates first homes on

ground 18-24 months after sale closes

No current students
Hatfield Elementary

SLIDE 12

Future Subdivision

Wellington- City of Ft. Worth

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Wellington

2,900 total units
1,700 single family lots
1,200 multi-family units
First 500 lots currently under

development

Lot delivery expected spring 2017
5 home builders
Anticipated absorption rate: 15-20

homes per month

First residents expected Fall 2017
Schluter Elementary

SLIDE 13

Future Subdivision

Sendera Ranch – City of Ft. Worth

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Sendera Ranch

11,429 total lots
8,664 future lots
2,570 homes occupied
62 homes under construction
118 vacant developed lots
2,400 future lots in Sendera Ranch North
Developer anticipates first homes on the

ground in 4Q16

Developer estimates delivering 400-600

lots per year through 2022

Split between Sendera Ranch Elementary

and Thompson Elementary

2,244 total students
1,105 elementary students
549 middle school students
590 high school students
Current student yield= .87

Sendera Ranch North 2,400 future lots

SLIDE 14

Future Development

Project Blizzard

14

Project Blizzard

Hillwood Mixed use development
275 single family lots
Project will be completed in 5 phases
Zoning has been approved
Construction not anticipated to start

until 3Q16

Lakeview Elementary

SLIDE 15

Apartment Yield Analysis

Yield Comparison 2014-15 2015-16 Change Students 676 803 + 127 Average Yield 0.30 0.32 + 0.02

*Comparison between the same 18 apartments existing in 2014-15 study.

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SLIDE 16

Future Apartments

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SLIDE 17

Apartment and Single Family Analysis

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Between 2014/15 and 2015/16 Northwest ISD added 127 students in multi-

family units

Almost 4% of Northwest ISD students reside in multi-family units
The district multi-family yield per unit is 0.27 students, while the yield for a

single family home is 0.64 students

Northwest ISD added 935 students in single family homes between 2014/15

and 2015/16 2014‐15 2015‐16 Change Total Students 19,828 20,948 1,120 Out of District 468 472 4 Unmatched 153 207 54 Total Students (Geocoded Inside District) 19,207 20,269 1,062 Multi‐Family Students in MF 676 803 127 MF Units 3,445 3,445 % Students in MF 3.5% 3.9% 0.4% MF Yield 0.20 0.27 0.07 Single Family Students in SF 18,531 19,466 935 SF Parcels 29,827 30,463 636 % Students in SF 96.5% 96.1% ‐0.4% SF Yield 0.62 0.64 0.02

SLIDE 18

Ten Year Forecast

By Grade Level

*Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year

Northwest ISD will enroll more than 22,000 students next fall
5 year growth = 5,795 students
2020/21 enrollment = 26,743 students
10 year growth = 12,906 students
2025/26 enrollment = 33,854 students

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Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth % Growth 2011/12 301 1,383 1,391 1,407 1,368 1,331 1,291 1,317 1,281 1,190 1,278 1,210 1,013 865 16,626 2012/13 300 1,448 1,465 1,448 1,466 1,433 1,402 1,400 1,375 1,325 1,344 1,302 1,153 950 17,811 1,185 7.1% 2013/14 301 1,485 1,545 1,512 1,514 1,529 1,517 1,479 1,489 1,457 1,489 1,334 1,232 1,067 18,950 1,139 6.4% 2014/15 311 1,550 1,538 1,618 1,596 1,553 1,557 1,550 1,521 1,541 1,595 1,481 1,275 1,145 19,831 881 4.6% 2015/16 319 1,527 1,650 1,661 1,658 1,653 1,668 1,639 1,599 1,575 1,745 1,643 1,414 1,197 20,948 1,117 5.6% 2016/17 319 1,600 1,625 1,761 1,747 1,739 1,747 1,763 1,713 1,679 1,787 1,651 1,581 1,319 22,031 1,083 5.2% 2017/18 319 1,688 1,708 1,728 1,862 1,836 1,843 1,837 1,849 1,813 1,900 1,678 1,596 1,488 23,146 1,114 5.1% 2018/19 319 1,777 1,801 1,816 1,821 1,966 1,938 1,936 1,931 1,948 2,042 1,807 1,621 1,513 24,235 1,090 4.7% 2019/20 319 1,861 1,889 1,918 1,922 1,923 2,074 2,035 2,032 2,040 2,191 1,956 1,747 1,532 25,439 1,204 5.0% 2020/21 319 1,970 1,985 2,016 2,026 2,022 2,030 2,176 2,135 2,145 2,290 2,078 1,890 1,661 26,743 1,304 5.1% 2021/22 319 2,087 2,101 2,112 2,131 2,142 2,126 2,127 2,285 2,255 2,405 2,200 2,008 1,796 28,093 1,350 5.0% 2022/23 319 2,209 2,226 2,250 2,238 2,269 2,255 2,242 2,237 2,409 2,524 2,302 2,124 1,908 29,512 1,419 5.1% 2023/24 319 2,328 2,372 2,353 2,366 2,339 2,396 2,364 2,339 2,355 2,692 2,403 2,223 2,037 30,886 1,374 4.7% 2024/25 319 2,456 2,491 2,513 2,495 2,472 2,471 2,512 2,467 2,461 2,634 2,581 2,320 2,125 32,316 1,431 4.6% 2025/26 319 2,591 2,639 2,642 2,649 2,607 2,619 2,592 2,621 2,593 2,749 2,519 2,490 2,225 33,854 1,538 4.8%

SLIDE 19

Ten Year Forecast

By Elementary Campus

Cox Elementary may enroll 535 by next fall, and more than 650 students by 2017
Peterson Elementary may enroll more than 1,000 students by 2018
By 2017, four campuses may be over stated capacity, and 2 additional campuses

may be within 5% of capacity

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*Green box = within 5% of capacity *Yellow box = over capacity

Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus Capacity 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 Beck Elementary 850 789 823 849 867 859 862 866 867 866 869 871 Clara Love Elementary 850 720 712 698 715 714 702 701 705 715 721 727 Cox Elementary 850 442 535 656 796 974 1,157 1,381 1,646 1,828 2,005 2,231 Granger Elementary 850 906 910 911 898 879 894 897 902 909 917 926 Haslet Elementary 650 424 408 395 398 396 404 412 425 439 454 469 Hatfield Elementary 450 444 469 491 518 551 586 666 779 925 1,085 1,269 Hughes Elementary 650 555 566 564 572 567 571 592 617 642 669 698 Justin Elementary 650 528 532 554 570 586 596 620 641 663 686 710 Lakeview Elementary 650 563 596 630 637 666 668 676 681 688 695 711 Nance Elementary 650 497 526 563 604 639 680 727 769 815 858 910 Peterson Elementary 850 847 927 994 1,073 1,121 1,160 1,164 1,165 1,163 1,173 1,182 Prairie View Elementary 650 421 439 447 455 479 495 516 537 559 581 603 Roanoke Elementary 850 707 688 696 704 693 685 722 763 807 852 903 Sendera Ranch Elementary 650 580 575 593 600 643 648 688 730 773 818 863 Seven Hills Elementary 650 544 550 556 550 553 557 573 589 611 631 650 Schluter Elementary 650 622 706 777 845 927 1,009 1,094 1,193 1,275 1,366 1,459 Thompson Elementary 650 547 576 610 636 659 694 723 757 795 837 884 ELEMENTARY SCHOOL TOTALS 12,050 10,136 10,538 10,984 11,438 11,906 12,368 13,018 13,766 14,473 15,217 16,066 Elementary Absolute Growth 413 402 446 454 467 462 650 748 707 744 849 Elementary Percent Growth 4.25% 3.97% 4.23% 4.13% 4.09% 3.88% 5.26% 5.74% 5.13% 5.14% 5.58%

SLIDE 20

Ten Year Forecast

By Secondary Campus

Tidwell Middle School may have more than 1,300 students by 2017
Eaton High School opened this fall with nearly 1,000 students, and is

anticipated to reach 1,500 students next fall

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*Green box = within 5% of capacity *Yellow box = over capacity

Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus Capacity 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 Chisholm Trail Middle School 1,100 994 1,057 1,139 1,195 1,283 1,362 1,394 1,458 1,523 1,630 1,738 Gene Pike Middle School 1,100 766 767 843 886 909 957 983 988 975 1,032 1,108 Medlin Middle School 1,100 1,106 1,200 1,245 1,326 1,366 1,462 1,470 1,447 1,386 1,391 1,407 Tidwell Middle School 1,200 1,113 1,252 1,372 1,456 1,591 1,663 1,788 1,902 2,061 2,220 2,333 Wilson Middle School 1,200 834 879 900 952 958 1,012 1,032 1,093 1,113 1,167 1,220 MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 5,700 4,813 5,155 5,499 5,815 6,107 6,456 6,667 6,888 7,058 7,440 7,806 Middle School Absolute Growth 201 342 344 316 292 349 211 221 170 382 366 Middle School Percent Growth 4.36% 7.11% 6.67% 5.75% 5.02% 5.71% 3.27% 3.31% 2.47% 5.41% 4.92% Northwest High School 2,525 2,263 2,030 1,703 1,685 1,740 1,817 1,937 2,033 2,151 2,194 2,261 Byron Nelson High School 2,400 2,571 2,630 2,732 2,871 3,112 3,367 3,584 3,822 4,037 4,181 4,310 Eaton High School 2,500 984 1,505 2,054 2,253 2,401 2,562 2,714 2,830 2,994 3,112 3,239 Steele Accelerated High School 450 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 Denton County JJAEP 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Denton Creek 38 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 7,875 5,999 6,338 6,662 6,982 7,426 7,919 8,408 8,858 9,355 9,660 9,983 High School Absolute Growth 503 339 324 320 444 493 489 450 497 305 323 High School Percent Growth 9.15% 5.65% 5.12% 4.80% 6.36% 6.64% 6.17% 5.36% 5.61% 3.26% 3.34% DISTRICT TOTALS 25,625 20,948 22,031 23,146 24,235 25,439 26,743 28,093 29,512 30,886 32,316 33,854 District Absolute Growth 1,117 1,083 1,114 1,090 1,204 1,304 1,350 1,419 1,374 1,431 1,538 District Percent Growth 5.6% 5.2% 5.1% 4.7% 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.6% 4.8%

SLIDE 21

County Appraisal Values

Percent Change in Value 2014 – 2015

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Source: Texas Comptroller's Office

Net Taxable Value

5.0%

$12.1 Billion

SLIDE 22

2015 County Appraisal Values

Appraisal Values Map and Average Student Yield by Price Point

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Source: Denton, Tarrant and Wise County CAD & Templeton Demographics

Based on students geocoded to Single Family parcels with verified addresses and appraisal value > $10,000 Legend Appraisal Values Units Total Students Total Yield Elem. Students Elem. Yield MS Students MS Yield HS Students HS Yield < $150K

8,016 4,107 0.512 2,095 0.261 934 0.117 1,078 0.134

$150K ‐ $250K 10,679

7,141 0.669 3,440 0.322 1,610 0.151 2,091 0.196

$250K ‐ $350K

4,603 2,992 0.650 1,392 0.302 709 0.154 891 0.194

$350K ‐ $500K

2,651 1,960 0.739 887 0.335 452 0.171 621 0.234

> $500K

1,038 630 0.607 278 0.268 172 0.166 180 0.173

Grand Total 26,987

16,830 0.624 8,092 0.300 3,877 0.144 4,861 0.180

Wise County Appraisal Values not available

30% 39% 17% 10% 4%

Percentage

f Units per

Price Point

24% 42% 17.8% 11.6% 3.7% Percentage

f Students

per Price Point

SLIDE 23

Summary

DFW continues to be a leader in job and population growth by creating

99,000 jobs in 2015.

Northwest ISD had more than 300 new home starts and closings in the

4th quarter of 2015.

Beck, Justin and Schluter have the highest amount of new home

activity representing 41.6% of district starts in 2015.

NISD can expect an increase of approximately 5,800 students during

the next 5 years.

2020/21 enrollment projection: 26,743 students
NISD is projected to have 33,854 students for the 2025/26 school year.

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