Q4/09 – Results Presentation. Deutsche Telekom.
February 25, 2010
Q4/09 Results Presentation. Deutsche Telekom. February 25, 2010 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Q4/09 Results Presentation. Deutsche Telekom. February 25, 2010 Disclaimer. This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the current views of Deutsche Telekom management with respect to future events. These
February 25, 2010
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the current views of Deutsche Telekom management with respect to future events. These forward-looking statements include statements with regard to the expected development of revenue, earnings, profits from operations, depreciation and amortization, cash flows and personnel-related measures. You should consider them with caution. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, most of which are difficult to predict and are generally beyond Deutsche Telekom’s control, including those described in the sections “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Risk Factors” of Deutsche Telekom’s Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Among the factors that might influence our ability to achieve our objectives are the progress of our workforce reduction initiative and other cost-saving measures, and the impact of other significant strategic, labor or business initiatives, including acquisitions, dispositions and business combinations, and our network upgrade and expansion initiatives. In addition, stronger than expected competition, technological change, legal proceedings and regulatory developments, among other factors, may have a material adverse effect on our costs and revenue development. Further, the economic downturn in our markets, and changes in interest and currency exchange rates, may also have an impact on our business development and the availability of financing on favorable
materially affect our results at the group and operating segment levels. If these or other risks and uncertainties materialize, or if the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, our actual performance may materially differ from the performance expressed or implied by forward-looking
statements to take new information or future events into account or otherwise. In addition to figures prepared in accordance with IFRS, Deutsche Telekom also presents non-GAAP financial performance measures, including, among
These non-GAAP measures should be considered in addition to, but not as a substitute for, the information prepared in accordance with IFRS. Non-GAAP financial performance measures are not subject to IFRS or any other generally accepted accounting principles. Other companies may define these terms in different ways. For further information relevant to the interpretation of these terms, please refer to the chapter “Reconciliation of pro forma figures”, which is posted on Deutsche Telekom’s Investor Relations webpage at www.telekom.com.
René Obermann CEO FY09 and Q4 2009 Review Outlook 2010 & Guidance Timotheus Höttges CFO FY09 and Q4 2009 Review Save for Service Review and Outlook Shareholder Remuneration
Management and Supervisory Board
1 Domestic fixed line business: savings YE06-YE09 (i.e. w/o business customers) , 2009 pro forma
Chart 3
for 2010-2012 with a minimum dividend of €0.70 p.a. and the rest via share buy backs
€1.8 billion net savings in Germany and SEE
2) Subject to necessary AGM-Approval and board resolution 1) incl. TM UK for the full year 2010 Chart 4
revenues more than 28%
>€0.1billion
Impact on Deutsche Telekom Relative Currency Development 1 GDP Development (% Real Change p.a.) Private Consumption (% Real Change p.a.)
1 Depiction of change of foreign currencies vs. rates at end of Q4 2006. Nominal amounts are spot rates.
2007 2008 2009
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit. Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit. Increase: Depreciation of foreign currency vs. € Decrease: Appreciation of foreign currency vs. € Source: EZB.
0.4 0.5 3.9 0.5 1.3 (2.5) (4.8) (3.8) (4.1) (5.0) Germany EU-15 Eastern Europe UK USA
2008 2009E
(0.2) 0.9 4.4 0.4 0.4 (0.8) (3.2) (3.9) (1.4) 0.4 Germany EU-15 Eastern Europe UK USA 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
USD GBP PLN HUF CZK HRK 2008 2009E
Chart 5
keep pressure on prices, especially as private consumption growth lags behind overall GDP trend
consumer spending
and tax increases Potential Impact on Deutsche Telekom Unemployment Rates (%) GDP Development (% Real Change p.a.)
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit. Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit.
1.1 0.8 0.9 2.5 1.2 1.1 2.9 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.5 3.9 0.5 0.4 (5.0) (4.1) (3.8) (4.8) (2.5) 0.7 Germany EU-15 Eastern Europe UK USA
2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
9.9 10.4 9.79.3 7.8 7.2 8.7 5.6 5.8 8.1 9.2 11.4 7.6 9.3 11.8 8.4 9.1 9.3 10.7 10.1 Germany EU-15 Eastern Europe UK USA
2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Chart 6
Overview Q4 financials
Group revenue growth of 0.6% in Q4/09
Revenue (€ billion)
16.1 1.5 Acquisitions
Currency
Organic 16.2 Q4/09 +0.6%
4.7 0.5 Acquisitions
Currency 0.0 Organic 5.1 Q4/09 +8.6%
Percentage changes calculated on values in € million
Q4/08 Q4/08 30.3 32.4 29.0 34.0 31.2 24 26 28 30 32 34 Q4/09 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Chart 7
Revenue (€ million)
Q4/09 6,401 4,540 4,334 4,130 4,004 4,162 Q4/09 2,340 2009 37.7 9.6 2008 37.0 9.8 2007 35.3 9.9 Q1/09 6,331 Q1/09 2,363 37.3% Q2/09 6,220 Q2/09 2,381 38.3% Q3/09 6,471 Q3/09 2,523 39.0% Q4/08 6,608 Q4/08 2,269
+3.1% Q4/09 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/08
36.3% 34.3% Chart 8
Revenue (€ million)
cost base reduced to €13 billion
4,711 4,628 4,724 4,987 4,673 1,604 1,582 1,609 1,499 1,452 6.4 31.2 6.6 33.3 6.2 32.4 2009 2008 2007
Q4/09 Q4/09 Q1/09 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q3/09 Q4/08 Q4/08
30.1% 34.1% 34.2% 34.0% 30.8% Chart 9
Domestic retail customer base Entertain packages (sold) (’000) Broadband lines1 (million) Retail net adds ‘000 / Share %
1 Market share for 2008 adjusted based on new BNetzA figures, 2009 own estimates. Rounded figures. Competitors: ULL, WS bundled and unbundled and resale.
DTAG Competitors Cable Market Share
1,052 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q3 2008 2009 Q2 Q1 2007 Q4
XX% retail broadband net add market share per quarter
43% 18% 59% 53%
FY 2008 Line losses: 2.5 million FY 2009 Line losses: 2.1 million
572 340 373 390 352 344 Q1 Q4 Q3 539 480 526 177 246 72 885 721 599 480 Q4/09 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/08 +119% Q4/09 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/08 25.0 11.5 11.0 2.2 11.2 24.6 2.6 24.2 11.3 2.5 10.8 10.8 10.6 1.8 23.8 11.0 10.8 2.0 23.1 10.6 46 46 46 46 46 FY/09: 45.1%
60% 63% 65% 66% 56% 58% 59% 68% 38% 36% 34% 33% 41% 31% 40% 39% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 1% 3% 1%
Q4/08 Q3/08 Q2/08 Q1/08 Q4/09 Q3/09 Q2/09 Q1/09
Triple Play Double Play Single Play
Chart 10
1million during 2009
versus Vodafone
– total contract MOU up 9.3% yoy in 2009
4pp yoy to 26%. Smartphone-share of new contract customers (w/o SP)
Service revenues (€ million)
1,798 1,733 1,722 1,751 1,755 920 798 761 771 894 39.0% 41.0% 43.6% 53% 47% 43% 32% 34% Q4/09 Q4/09 Q1/09 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q3/09 Q4/08 Q4/08 +0.2% +16% Q4/09 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/08 42.6% 38.4% Chart 11
ARPU development (US$) Net adds (‘000)
Service revenues (US$ million)
4,655 4,654 4,780 4,624 1,384 1,602 1,588 27.8% 25.7% 30.0% 1,558 29.0% 4,611 1,382 25.6%
Total net adds Contract net adds
49 9.30 47 9.40 47 9.90 46 10.00 46 10.20
Blended ARPU Data ARPU (US GAAP)
371
325 415 621
56 160 267 Q4/09 Q4/09 Q1/09 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q3/09 Q4/08 Q4/08
Q4/09 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/08 Q4/09 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/08 Chart 12
Number of 3G-enabled converged devices on air (million) 3G POP coverage (million)
107 113 167 205 3.9 2.8 2.1 1.5 0.8
“Even More Plus” unlimited rate plans for smartphones ($) T-Mobile USA stores
2,815 1,274 4,089 3,082 1,501 4,583 3,566 1,752 5,318 7,522 2,051 9,573 70 50 Talk 90 60 Talk + Text 120 80 Talk + Text + Web Q4/06 Q4/07 Q4/08 Q4/09
1 AT&T and Verizon
Q4/09 Q4/09 Q1/09 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q3/09 Q4/08 Q4/08
National retail Own Stores Major competitors1 T-Mobile
107 Chart 13
compensated by cost reductions. Prepay push delivers 570k net-adds.
improvement of margin. Strong growth in data revenues of 61%. Clear example of intra market consolidation.
regulation revenue would have shown approx. 2% growth.
slightly growing by 0.6%.
revenue decrease in local currency driven by regulation.
18 44 30 31 25 30 48 31 36 20
25% 19% 27% 29% 27% 10 20 30
A CZ PL NL UK Q4/09 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/08 Chart 14
distribution strategy and network unchanged
Chart 15
Q4/09 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/08
Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania only consolidated as of Feb 2009, no historic figures available
€0.1billion adj. EBITDA lost in currency translation yoy
(+15% yoy)
88k net adds in Q4/09.
ROM GRE BUL CRO HUN SLK 36% 41% 40% 42% 45% 45% 47% 21 37 38 33 37 38 40 36 35 1,146 1,964 2,516 2,616 2,589 36% 37% Revenue (€ million) Chart 16
difficult market environment
continued pricing pressure and postponed investment decisions by customers
1 As of January 1, 2009, small and medium-sized business customers of the Systems Solutions operating segment (until January 1, 2009, called Business Customers operating segment) are disclosed under the Broadband/Fixed Network operating business area. Prior-year comparatives have been adjusted. Percentages calculated on the basis of figures shown.
Revenue (€ million)1
2,388 1,618 770 2,125 1,467 658 2,179 1,502 677 2,106 1,496 610 2,599 1,773 826
External Revenue Internal Revenue
Q4/09 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/08 Chart 17
Efficiency program Save4Service (€ million)
Q4/08
still significantly below industry average
and defined in Phase II of Save for Service
1 As of January 1, 2009, small and medium-sized business customers of the Systems Solutions operating segment (until January 1, 2009, called Business Customers operating segment) are disclosed under the Broadband/Fixed Network operating business area. Prior-year comparatives have been adjusted. Percentages calculated on the basis of figures shown.
48
64 58 73 34 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 International Corporate Customer Sales G&A Systems Integration Total ICT- Operations 1.8% 3.0%
0.5% 1.6% 2.7% 3.1%
Systems Integration
reduction (G&A)
12
EBIT EBIT margin
141 33 154 224 43 595 Chart 18
Free cash flow FY 2009 (€ billion)
Q1 2009 H1 2009 Q1 – Q3 2009
Year over Year Per quarter 2009
7.0 FY 2008
Cash Capex
Interest
Taxes 0.0 Change in working capital 1.1 Increase in cash generated from
7.0 FY 2009
Contribution per quarter Contribution previous period
0.4 1.4 1.8 3.3 1.8 5.1 1.9 5.1 7.0 FY 2009
1 Before taxes and change in working capital
0.4 Chart 19
P&L adjusted for special infuences (in € million) Q4/09 Q4/08 FY/09 FY/08 EBITDA 5,070 4,669 20,668 19,459 Depreciation and amortization
Net financial expense
EBT 1,605 1,254 6,033 5,884 Income taxes
Earnings after taxes 1,020 944 3,931 3,995 Minorities
Net income 905 861 3,390 3,426 Reconciliation to net inome (in € million) Q4 /09 Q4/08 FY/09 FY/08 Net income adjusted 905 861 3,390 3,426 Special influences
Net income reported
353 1,483
Chart 20
Comfort zone ratios 2 - 2.5x Net debt/adj. EBITDA 25 - 35% Equity ratio Gearing: 0.8 to 1.2 30% Liquidity reserve
€ billion 31/12/09 30/09/09 30/06/09 31/03/09 31/12/08 Balance sheet total 127.8 129.3 132.9 133.8 123.1 Shareholders’ equity 41.9 41.6 41.5 45.2 43.1 Net debt 40.9 42.4 45.0 42.8 38.2 Net debt / adj. EBITDA1 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 Gearing 1.0x 1.0x 1.1x 0.9x 0.9x Equity ratio2 30.2% 30.2% 29.9% 30.6% 32.3%
1 Calculation for the non full year ratios based on mid-point of DT guidance 2 Excl. dividend.
Comfort zone ratios going forward 2 - 2.5x Net debt/adj. EBITDA 25 - 35% Equity ratio Gearing: 0.8 to 1.2 Liquidity reserve covers redemptions of next 24 months
Chart 21
Chart 22
Chart 23
1 incl. TM UK for the full year 2010
Chart 24
OPEX savings 2007-2009 (cons., w/o OTE) (€ billion)
Net savings Reinvest Gross savings
Gross savings of €5.9 billion realized, versus
Freed up capital to reinvest into strengthening competitiveness and enable growth, e. g.:
VDSL
Consolidated net savings on group level: €1.3 billion – examples:
2007-2009
1 Domestic fixed line business: savings YE06-YE09 (i.e. w/o business customers) , 2009 pro forma
5.9 1.3 T-Home T-Mobile w/o TMUS T-Systems GHS 3.1 1.3 4.6 0.6 1.0
Chart 25
Cost base development YE2008-YE2009 (€ billion)
Contribution by Business Unit (in € million) 2009 T-Home 976 T-Mobile (w/o TMUS) 165 Systems Solutions 595 GHS 94 DT Group 1.831
effects
+ 0.4 pp. to 32%
YE2009 45.4 S4S
Market Spend 0.4 FX
Changes in scope of consolidation YE2008 43.6 3.6 Chart 26
1.5 0.5 0.1
Gross savings 2010 – 2012 (billion €)
S4S is a number one priority initiative in the group
units
savings, thereof ~50% in 2010
€1.5 billion, SEE €0.3 billion, domestic G&A functions: €0,4 billion 2010 to 2012
al along
impl plementati ementation
GHS SYS SEE USA EU GER Thereof 2010
~ 2.0
0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 2010 - 2012
~4.2
0.4 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.2
Chart 27
shareholder remuneration.
Chart 28
1 Subject to necessary AGM-Approval
Results 2009 For 2009:
German withholding tax
Chart 29
p.a.
1 Subject to necessary AGM-Approval and board resolution
Chart 30
René Obermann CEO Timotheus Höttges CFO