Q3 Earnings Presentation October 2019 2 General: This presentation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Q3 Earnings Presentation October 2019 2 General: This presentation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Q3 Earnings Presentation October 2019 2 General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in relying upon forward- historical information, descriptions of current circumstances
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General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains historical information, descriptions
- f
current circumstances and statements about potential future developments and anticipated financial
- results. Readers are cautioned that this presentation is qualified in its
entirety by reference to, and must be read in conjunction with, the information contained in West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.’s (WFT’s) management’s discussion and analysis for the annual and interim periods ended December 31, 2018 and September 30, 2019 respectively, (MD&A), and the company’s annual audited and interim financial statements available on SEDAR (www.sedar.com). A person is not entitled to rely on parts of the information contained in this presentation to the exclusion of others. Forward-looking Statements: This presentation contains “forward- looking statements” (including those under the headings Supply Conditions and Summary) within the meaning of applicable securities
- laws. Forward-looking statements, are presented to provide reasonable
guidance to the reader but their accuracy depends on a number of assumptions and is subject to various risks and uncertainties. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “plans”, “targets”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “an opportunity exists”, “outlook”, “prospects”, “strategy”, “intends”, “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases
- r state that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”,
“might”, “will”, “will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. In addition, any statements that refer to expectations, intentions, projections or other characterizations of future events or circumstances contain forward- looking information. Statements containing forward-looking information are not historical facts but instead represent management’s expectations, estimates and projections regarding future events or
- circumstances. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve
numerous assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, which contribute to the possibility that the predictions, forecasts and other forward-looking statements will not occur. Actual
- utcomes and results of these statements will depend on a number of
factors including those matters described under “Risks and Uncertainties”, in our MD&A and may differ materially from those anticipated or projected. Reference should be made to the other factors discussed in public filings with securities regulatory authorities. . Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in relying upon forward- looking- statements and WFT undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether written or
- ral, to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as required
by applicable securities laws. Non-IFRS Measures: This presentation makes reference to certain non-IFRS measures, such as EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and net debt to capital ratio. Non-IFRS measures do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by others. For further information regarding the use of non-IFRS measures please refer to the “Non-IFRS Measures” section in the MD&A External Information: Where this presentation quotes any information or statistics from any external source, it should not be interpreted that WFT has adopted or endorsed such information or statistics as being accurate. Some of the information presented herein is based on or derived from statements by third parties and has not been independently verified by or on behalf by WFT, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information or any other information
- r opinions contained herein.
Currency: In this presentation, all amounts are in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise indicated. Terminology: References in this presentation to “MMfbm” or “mmfbm” mean million board feet, “SPF” means spruce-pine-fir and “SYP” means southern yellow pine. For any other technical terms used in this presentation, please see the Glossary of Industry Terms found in our most recent Annual Report.
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0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% $250 $260 $270 $280 $290 $300 $310 $320 $330
Q117Q217Q317Q417Q118Q218Q318Q418Q119Q219Q319
Expenditures % change
Demand conditions
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 J F M A M J J A S O N D M Starts
U.S. Housing Starts (not seasonally adjusted)
2017 2018 2019 Seasonally adjusted: 2017: 1,203 2018: 1,250 2019: 1,250 ytd September
Leading indicator of Remodeling Activity
$B 4 Qtr Moving Improvements and Repairs 4 Qtr Moving rate of Change Source: US Census Bureau Source: Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies
100 200 300 400 500 600 J F M A M J J A S O N D MMfbm
North America Offshore Exports
2017 2018 2019 2017: 5,462 2018: 5,199 2019: 2,773 ytd July
Source: Statistics Canada, US Census
4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 J F M A M J J A S O N D MM tonnes
World Chemical Pulp Shipments
2017 2018 2019 2017: 61.7 2018: 61.1 2019: 40.9 ytd August
Source: PPPC
4 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2018Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 North America Curtailments
Supply conditions
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 BC Canada US Total NA Lumber Supply
Ytd 07-18 Ytd 07-19 Down 18% Down 11% Flat Down 5%
Source: Western Wood Products Association, management estimates Source: Industry analysts, public filings, management estimates, FEA Billion fbm MMfbm
Mix of temporary and permanent
Curtailments potentially have a larger impact on supply going forward
Source: Statistics Canada, US Census
100 200 300 400 500 600
Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19
MMfbm
North America Offshore Imports
2017: 1,411 2018: 1,575 2019: 866 ytd July
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* Adjusted EBITDA is defined as operating earnings plus amortization, equity based compensation, restructuring and impairment charges and export duties.
Consolidated Financial Results
$ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q3-19 Q2-19 Lumber $ 39 $ 39 Panels 13 10 Pulp & Paper 3 7 Corporate/Other
- Total
$ 55 $ 56 EBITDA margin 4.6% 4.2% Q3-19 Q2-19 Sales $ 1,190 $ 1,317 Cost and Expenses 1,245 1,375 Restructure/Impairment (1) 26 Operating earnings (54) (84) Finance Expense (12) (13) Other 2 (6) Earnings before Tax $ (64) $ (103) Tax recovery 19 45 Net earnings $ (45) $ (58) Diluted EPS $ (0.73) $ (0.92)
Challenging conditions continue
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Q3 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation
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Q3 Lumber Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation
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Q3-19 versus Q2-19
$ millions unless
- therwise indicated
Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Change Lumber Production (MMfbm) 1,493 1,536 (43) (3%)
Chasm Closure, 100 Mile House shift reduction, BC variable
- perating schedules, offset by US productivity improvements
Lumber Shipments (MMfbm) 1,541 1,686 (145) (9%)
Shift reductions, Chasm closure, AB downtime
Pulp and Paper Shipments (Mtonnes) 323 305 19 6%
Higher NBSK production rates, recovery from maintenance shut downs
Adjusted EBITDA $55 $56 $(1)
Adjusted EBITDA lower in pulp due to lower pricing offset by increase in panels, lumber flat
Cash flow from operations $116 $187 $(71)
Better cash flow before working capital in Q3, smaller working capital drawdown in Q3
Capital Expenditure $133 $82 $51
Continuing to execute on capital plans and US South modernization program
Net Debt Net Debt to Capital $983 28% $942 26% $41
Net debt up slightly from prior quarter, significant financial flexibility and wide margin of safety
Cumulative duties on deposit US$ $344 $312 $32
Significant duties on deposit
Share buybacks
- $31
$(31)
Evaluating market conditions
Despite difficult 2019 so far, maintaining focus on priorities
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- $100
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900
2017 2018 Q1-17 Q1-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19
Available liquidity
Bank lines Cash
Liquidity
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Term loan Notes Revolver
Scheduled maturities
Ample financial flexibility
Cash consists of cash and short-term investments less cheques issued in excess of funds on deposit.
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Recent US South Capital Projects
McDavid, Florida
- New canter line
- Improved recovery
- Greater product mix flexibility
- Unlocks capacity in remainder of mill
Joyce, Louisiana
- Log merchandiser
- Improved reliability, reduced operating
costs
- Input flexibility
- Improved recovery
Operationalizing US South Modernization
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Recent US South Capital Projects
Perry, Florida
- Continuous Dry Kilns
- Grade improvements
- Removes bottleneck, unlocks capacity in
remainder of mill
- Energy efficiency and residuals utilization
Augusta, Georgia
- Planer mill
- Grade improvements
- Improved working conditions to reduce
turnover, increase throughput
- Reduced operating costs
Operationalizing US South Modernization
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Summary
✕ Continued headwinds in lumber and pulp pricing ✕ B.C. fiber costs remain elevated ✓ Improved production rates in NBSK ✓ Completed permanent lumber capacity reductions at Chasm and 100 Mile House ✓ Diligently managing operating schedule in B.C. ✓ Softwood pulp market showing signs of stability ✓ Ramp down of B.C. lumber supply underway ✓ Significant financial flexibility to continue to execute strategy ✓ Operationalizing US South capital projects