Q2 FY19 financial results delivering on strategy 9 May 2019 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Q2 FY19 financial results delivering on strategy 9 May 2019 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Q2 FY19 financial results delivering on strategy 9 May 2019 2019 Vision 2020 next phase growth intentional evolution Steve Binnie Chief Executive Officer Sappi Limited 1 Forward-looking statements and Regulation G Forward-looking


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SLIDE 1

9 May 2019

Chief Executive Officer Steve Binnie Sappi Limited

Q2 FY19 financial results

delivering on

strategy

2019

Vision 2020

intentional

evolution

next phase

growth

1

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SLIDE 2

Forward-looking statements and Regulation G

2

 Forward-looking statements

Certain statements in this release that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information, are forward-looking statements, including but not limited to statements that are predictions of

  • r indicate future earnings, savings, synergies, events, trends, plans or objectives. The words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, “plan”, “assume”, “positioned”, “will”, “may”, “should”,

“risk” and other similar expressions, which are predictions of or indicate future events and future trends and which do not relate to historical matters, identify forward-looking statements. In addition, this document includes forward-looking statements relating to our potential exposure to various types of market risks, such as interest rate risk, foreign exchange rate risk and commodity price risk. You should not rely on forward-looking statements because they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which are in some cases beyond our control and may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from anticipated future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements (and from past results, performance or achievements). Certain factors that may cause such differences include but are not limited to:

 The highly cyclical nature of the pulp and paper industry (and the factors that contribute to such cyclicality, such as levels of demand, production capacity, production, input costs including raw

material, energy and employee costs, and pricing)

 The impact on our business of adverse changes in global economic conditions  Unanticipated production disruptions (including as a result of planned or unexpected power outages)  Changes in environmental, tax and other laws and regulations  Adverse changes in the markets for our products  The emergence of new technologies and changes in consumer trends including increased preferences for digital media  Consequences of our leverage, including as a result of adverse changes in credit markets that affect our ability to raise capital when needed  Adverse changes in the political situation and economy in the countries in which we operate or the effect of governmental efforts to address present or future economic or social problems  The impact of restructurings, investments, acquisitions, dispositions and other strategic initiatives (including related financing), any delays, unexpected costs or other problems experienced in

connection with dispositions or with integrating acquisitions or implementing restructurings or other strategic initiatives, and achieving expected savings and synergies, and

 Currency fluctuations.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking statements, whether to reflect new information or future events or circumstances or otherwise.

 Regulation G disclosure

Certain non-GAAP financial information is contained in this presentation that management believe may be useful in comparing the company’s operating results from period to period. Reconciliation's of certain of the non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures can be found in the quarterly results booklet for the relevant period. These booklets are available on our website: https://www.sappi.com/quarterly-reports.

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SLIDE 3

Highlights – Q2 2019

3

EBITDA* -11%

year-on-year

Profit for the period US$72 million EPS 13 US cents Net debt +3%

year-on-year

  • Unexpectedly weak global market conditions for

printing and writing papers

  • Downtime of ~85,000t graphic paper
  • US$23m EBITDA impact estimated
  • Our inventory levels have normalized
  • Good DWP sales volumes post debottlenecking

Key ratios Q2 FY17 Q2 FY18 Q2 FY19 Net debt/LTM EBITDA 1.7 2.2 2.1 Interest cover 7.7 11.0 10.5 EBITDA % 15.8 14.1 12.4 ROCE % 20.5 16.8 13.1

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q2 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

Excluding special items*

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SLIDE 4

EBITDA* reconciliation

4

140 180 220 260 300

211 1 79 (76) (44) 9 7 187 Q2 FY18 EBITDA Sales volume Price & mix Variable & delivery costs Fixed costs Other Exchange rate Q2 FY19 EBITDA

Q2 FY18 to Q2 FY19

US$ million

Notes:

  • 1. All variances were calculated excluding Sappi Forestry.
  • 2. “Currency conversion” reflects translation and transactional effect on consolidation.
  • 3. EBITDA = EBITDA excluding special tems

2019 2018 Exchange rates: Average rate for the Quarter: US$1 = ZAR 14.0203 11.9577 Average rate for the Quarter: €1 = US$ 1.1360 1.2286 Mar

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SLIDE 5

Product contribution split – LTM

5

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q2 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items. Data above excludes treasury operations and insurance captive.

44% 17% 39% Dissolving Wood Pulp Packaging & Speciality Papers Printing & Writing Papers 57% 13% 30% EBITDA excluding special items Operating profit excluding special items

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SLIDE 6

Maturity profile*

Fiscal years

6

215 98 43 43 43 20 393 88 505 221 381 79

100 200 300 400 500 600 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2032 US$ million Cash Short-term SPH term debt Securitisation SSA EUR450m bond EUR350m bond US$221m bond

*The maturity profile is adjusted for the repayment of the 2022 bond post quarter-end and the resulting reduction in cash.

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SLIDE 7

Capex development

7

100 200 300 400 500 600 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020F US$ million

Maintenance Efficiency and expansion Forecast

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SLIDE 8

8

Market and Segmental overview

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SLIDE 9

Global P&W paper market trends

9

 Supply and demand

 Demand softening globally  Capacity reductions expected in US and Europe over next 18 months

 Selling prices and input costs

 Paper prices stable in US and EU  Pulp prices falling from historical highs on weak Chinese demand – declines differ by

geography

 Strategy

 Focus on costs to maintain margins  Manage operating rates through downtime, conversions, market share, flexibility of machines  Increase pulp integration over time

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SLIDE 10

Global packaging and speciality paper market trends

10

 Supply and demand

 Additional containerboard conversions entering the market  Smaller speciality packaging producers exiting due to cost pressures  Demand continues to grow, long-term prospects encouraging, driven by legislation and

consumer preference

 Brand owners pushing for paper based packaging solutions

 Selling prices and input costs

 Realised prices rose, particularly for flexible packaging, labels, and silicone base papers  Pulp prices declining slowly

 Strategy

 Ramp-up volumes from conversions, grow into new markets  We aim to be an innovative and sustainable supplier  Improve pulp integration

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SLIDE 11

Sappi Europe

11

Sales Tons +1%

year-on-year

Sales +1.5%

year-on-year

EBITDA* -27%

year-on-year

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q2 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

  • Market demand weaker than expected –

necessitating 46,000t of downtime

  • Higher selling prices did not offset higher variable

costs

  • Pulp prices have reduced, but remain elevated
  • Some packaging and speciality segments showed

renewed growth, self-adhesives remains weak

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SLIDE 12

Sappi North America

12

Sales Tons +1%

year-on-year

Sales +4%

year-on-year

EBITDA* -16%

year-on-year

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q2 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

  • Weak domestic graphic paper demand exacerbated by

increased imports - 39,000t of downtime taken

  • Growth in legacy packaging and paperboard volumes
  • Ramp-up of Somerset continues – product mix not yet
  • ptimal
  • Good DWP sales volumes – debottlenecking of

Cloquet complete

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SLIDE 13

Global DWP market trends

13

 Supply and demand

 VSF capacity growing faster than demand, operating rates declining  Demand continues to be strong, growing by ~6% per annum  Most swing capacity now on DWP  New DWP capacity entering the market by year-end

 Selling prices and input costs

 DWP selling prices declining as VSF prices and margins fall  Wood price increases, chemical costs declining

 Strategy

 Grow with the market (debottlenecked volumes 2018/19, 110kt expansion at Saiccor underway)  Evaluate external opportunities for more substantial increase in volumes – ROCE critical  Commitment to sustainability key

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SLIDE 14

Sappi South Africa

14

Sales Tons +1%

year-on-year

Sales -1%

year-on-year

EBITDA* +1%

year-on-year

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q2 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

  • DWP sales volumes increased post debottlecking

and with good operational performance

  • Packaging sales volumes lower based on timing
  • f seasonal demand
  • Price increases and weaker Rand offset higher

wood and energy prices

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SLIDE 15

Maintain a healthy balance sheet Rationalise declining businesses Accelerate growth in higher margin growth segments Achieve cost advantages

Improve

  • perational

and machine efficiencies Maximise procurement benefits Optimise business processes

Continuously balance paper supply and demand in all regions Where possible convert paper machines to higher margin businesses

Optimise working capital Strong cash generation Smart financing Expand paper packaging grades Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Extract value from our biorefinery stream

Our group strategy

15

At Sappi we do business with integrity and courage; making smart decisions which we execute with speed. Our values are underpinned by an unrelenting focus on and commitment to safety.

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SLIDE 16

Achieve cost advantages

Improve

  • perational

and machine efficiencies Maximise procurement benefits Optimise business processes

Our group strategy

16

 We work to lower fixed and variable costs,

increase cost efficiencies and invest for cost advantages.

 Group efficiency and procurement initiatives US$60m

target for 2019: +US$80m achieved in 2018

 Ongoing continuous improvement across all mills.  Investigate pulp integration opportunities in US and

EU

 Saiccor expansion will lead to lower variable costs  €30m upgrade to Gratkorn mill completed

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SLIDE 17

Rationalise declining businesses

Continuously balance paper supply and demand in all regions Where possible convert paper machines to higher margin businesses

Our group strategy

17

 Recognising the decreasing demand for

graphic paper, we manage our capacity to strengthen our leadership position in these markets, realising their strategic importance to the group and maximising their significant cash flow generation.

 Downtime taken at mills to lower inventories  Progressive transition of Lanaken Mill out of LWC  Reduced CWF exposure at Maastricht Mill, Ehingen

Mill and Somerset Mill PM1

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SLIDE 18

Maintain a healthy balance sheet

Optimise working capital Strong cash generation Smart financing

Our group strategy

18

 Maintain leverage below 2x Net debt:EBITDA  Finance costs US$60-70m/annum going

forward

 7 yr €450m bond raised @3.125% - used to

repay €450m 2022 bond

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SLIDE 19

Accelerate growth in higher margin growth segments

Extract value from our biorefinery stream Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Expand paper packaging grades

Our group strategy

19

 We will make investments in existing and

adjacent areas with strong potential growth.

 Debottlenecking of Saiccor, Ngodwana and Cloquet

DWP complete

 Expansion of Saiccor by 110kt/annum has started  Additional packaging at Ngodwana and Tugela Mills  Securing additional HW and SW timber supply  Biomaterials, bio-chemicals – lignins, sugars  Ramp-up of board grades at Maastricht and Somerset

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SLIDE 20

 We expect continued healthy demand for DWP. Lower prices/volumes next quarter due to

market pricing and shuts.

 Most grades continue to grow for our packaging and specialities segment. Product qualifications

and customer trials proceeding.

 Weak demand for graphics, Lanaken conversion forthcoming .  Capex for the remainder of the year is expected to be approximately $370m – majority at

Saiccor, Cloquet and Lanaken for expansion/conversion.

 For the remainder of the financial year, given weak graphic paper markets, pricing pressure for

DWP and a more conservative outlook on the global economy, we have revised our forecast downward relative to last year.

20

Outlook

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SLIDE 21

Thank you

21

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SLIDE 22

22

Supplementary information

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SLIDE 23

Excluding special items*

23

EBITDA and operating profit

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q2 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

201 208 155 221 172 211 155 224 197 187 136 145 93 152 105 142 85 148 128 117

50 100 150 200 250 US$ million

EBITDA Operating profit ex special items

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SLIDE 24

24

Net debt/EBITDA development

* EBITDA is excluding special items. ** The covenant Net debt/LTM EBITDA calculation has adjustments and therefore differs from that shown above. 2,380 2,248 2,286 1,946 2,040 1,916 1,917 1,771 1,734 1,652 1583 1408 1338 1329 1318 1322 1349 1632 1603 1568 1557 1680 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 US$ million Net debt Net debt/LTM EBITDA**

2.2 4.6

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SLIDE 25

Sappi specialities and packaging papers

25

Global production sites with the ability to switch between graphics and packaging at various sites*

Alfeld Mill (Germany) Containerboard, flex-pack, label, paperboard, silicone base papers Carmignano Mill (Italy) Flexible packaging and functional papers Condino Mill (Italy) Flexible packaging and functional packaging Cloquet Mill* (USA) Label papers Ehingen Mill* (Germany) Containerboard Maastricht Mill* (The Netherlands) Paperboard Ngodwana Mill (South Africa) Containerboard Somerset Mill* (USA) Label paper and flexible packaging paper Tugela Mill (South Africa) Containerboard Westbrook Mill (USA) Release papers Stockstadt Mill* (Germany) Flexible packaging and functional papers

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SLIDE 26

26

Product Groups and Products

EU Packaging and Specialities

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SLIDE 27

Accelerate growth in higher margin growth segments

Extract value from our biorefinery stream Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Expand paper packaging grades

Packaging and Speciality papers expansion plans

27

 Europe

Maastricht: complete, ramp-up by 2021

  • 160k CWF, +150k specialities (FBB)

Ehingen: complete

  • 75k CWF, +60k specialities (WTL)

Alfeld: construction to start FY19, complete by Q4 FY20

+10k specialities (Various)

Lanaken: enable CWF on PM8, as market develops

 North America

Somerset: construction done, 3 year ramp up

  • 150k CWF, +350k specialities (SBS)
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SLIDE 28

28

Sappi Europe

* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q2 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

Q2 FY19 Q2 FY18 YTD 19 YTD 18 Tons sold (‘000) 842 847 1,651 1,669 Sales (EURm) 675 616 1,317 1,188 Price/Ton (EUR) 802 727 798 712 Cost/Ton* (EUR) 773 684 765 671 Operating profit excluding special items** (EURm) 24 37 54 68

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SLIDE 29

Western Europe

29

Coated paper deliveries and prices

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2

Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19

CWF Demand MCR Demand CWF 100gsm Sheets LWC 60gsm offset reels Western Europe shipments including export. Source: Cepifine, Cepiprint and RISI indexed to calendar 1Q 2008.

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SLIDE 30

30

Sappi North America

* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q2 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

Q2 FY19 Q2 FY18 YTD 19 YTD 18 Tons sold (‘000) 350 347 671 690 Sales (USDm) 378 363 729 705 Price/Ton (USD) 1,080 1,046 1,086 1,022 Cost/Ton* (USD) 1,051 994 1,058 997 Operating profit excluding special items** (USDm) 10 18 19 17

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SLIDE 31

United States of America

31

Coated paper prices and shipments

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Domestic CWF shipments Domestic CWF purchases RISI price CFS #3 60lb rolls US industry purchases defined as industry shipments, plus imports, less exports. Source: AF&PA and RISI indexed to calendar Q1 FY08.

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SLIDE 32

32

Sappi South Africa

* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q2 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

Q2 FY19 Q2 FY18 YTD 19 YTD 18 Tons sold (‘000) 418 413 814 796 Sales (ZARm) 4,981 4,331 9,690 8,404 Price/Ton (ZAR) 11,916 10,487 11,904 10,558 Cost/Ton* (ZAR) 9,234 8,816 9,033 8,813 Operating profit excluding special items** (ZARm) 1,121 950 2,338 1,890

Excludes forestry

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SLIDE 33

33

Pulp prices*

* Source: FOEX, CCF group. 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 US$/ton NBSK Europe BHKP Europe Commodity DWP Cotton linter pulp

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SLIDE 34

34

Textile fibre prices*

* Source: CCF group. 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800 Cotton 328 Cotton "A" Index PSF 1.4 D VSF 1.2 D VSF 1.5 D

US$/ton

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SLIDE 35

Cash flow

35

US$m Q2 FY19 Q2 FY18 1H 19 1H 18 Cash generated from operations 182 194 379 356

Movement in working capital (80) (35) (167) (118) Net finance costs paid (20) (15) (25) (21) Taxation (paid) (43) (50) (46) (44) Dividend paid (92) (81) (92) (81)

Cash generated from operating activities (53) 13 49 92 Cash utilised in investing activities (95) (238) (204) (331)

Capital expenditure (95) (119) (201) (207) Proceeds on disposal of assets 1 10 1 10 Acquisition of subsidiary

  • (132)
  • (132)

Other non-current asset movements (1) 3 (4) (2)

Net cash generated (utilised) (148) (225) (155) (239)

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SLIDE 36

Excluding special items* reconciliation to reported operating profit

36

EBITDA and operating profit

* Refer to page 22 in our Q2 FY19 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

US$m Q2 FY19 Q2 FY18 1H FY19 1H FY18

EBITDA excluding special items* 187 211 384 383

Depreciation and amortisation (70) (69) (139) (136)

Operating profit excluding special items* 117 142 245 247 Special items* - gains (losses)

  • 12

(5) 23 Plantation price fair value adjustment 10 6 13 22 Acquisition cost

  • (2)
  • (2)

Net restructuring provisions

  • 2
  • 2

Profit on disposal and written off assets (3) 9 (3) 9 Asset impairments (11)

  • (11)
  • Asset impairment reversals

8

  • 8
  • Black Economic Empowerment charge
  • (1)
  • (1)

Fire, flood, storm and other events (4) (2) (12) (7)

Segment operating profit 117 154 240 270

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SLIDE 37

Fibre properties and applications

37

Cellulosic fibre properties helping drive that growth

Source: IHS Global, RISI, Hawkins Wright.

Key strength Qualifies Issue Apparel Home textiles Nonwovens/Technical textiles

Overall value proposition Applications Function and feel Appearance Sustainability 17 62 21 66 27 7 52 20 28 Cellulosic fibres Cotton Polyester

  • On a pure

property basis, cellulosic fibres are superior to cotton and differentiated

  • n

sustainability.

  • Polyester is

differentiated

  • n strength/

durability versus cotton and cellulosic fibres.

  • Natural and attractive,

‘greener’ alternative to cotton

  • Natural, functional and

well established

  • Cheap, durable and

versatile Durability

 

Absorbency

 

Breathability

 

Softness

  

Drape

 

Dyeability

  

Brightness/Lustre

  

Renewable and biodegradeable

 

Resource efficiency



 

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SLIDE 38

38

There is still significant headroom to increase the level of cellulosic fibre blending in most sub-categories

Source: Expert interviews.

POLYESTER

Future Today Gap Today Future Gap Today Future Gap

COTTON CELLULOSIC

Apparel Home textile Towels 5% 5% 0% 80% 75%

  • 6%

15% 20% +33% Bedding 45% 55% +22% 45% 40%

  • 11%

1% 2% +100% Denim 5% 5% 95% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0% Shirts 35% 40% +14% 50% 40%

  • 20%

15% 20% +33% T-shirts 30% 50% +67% 70% 50%

  • 29%

3% 5% 0% Dresses 10% 10% 0% 35% 25%

  • 29%

55% 65% +18% Suits 35% 40% +14% 25% 20%

  • 20%

~1% ~2% +100% Sportswear 85% 85% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 15% 0% Casual wear 45% 50% +11% 45% 35%

  • 22%

10% 15% +50%

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SLIDE 39

Product Segments

39

Q1 18 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY18 Q1 19 Q2 Tons sold (‘000) 1,063 1,074 968 1,045 4,150 977 987 Sales 877 945 851 927 3,600 867 880 EBITDA 69 91 57 101 317 76 65

margin 8% 10% 7% 11% 9% 9% 7%

Q1 18 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY18 Q1 19 Q2 Tons sold (‘000) 287 302 277 332 1,198 297 350 Sales 241 279 245 278 1,043 263 308 EBITDA 78 83 60 88 306 91 92

margin 32% 30% 25% 32% 29% 35% 30%

Q1 18 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY18 Q1 19 Q2 Tons sold (‘000) 198 231 289 291 1,009 252 273 Sales 196 254 327 310 1,087 282 312 EBITDA 27 38 33 40 139 30 29

margin 14% 15% 10% 13% 13% 11% 9%

Packaging & Speciality Papers Printing & Writing Papers Dissolving Wood Pulp

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SLIDE 40

Thank you

40