6 February 2019
Chief Executive Officer Steve Binnie Sappi Limited
Q1 FY19 financial results
delivering on
strategy
2019
Vision 2020
intentional
evolution
next phase
growth
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Q1 FY19 financial results delivering on strategy 6 February 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Q1 FY19 financial results delivering on strategy 6 February 2019 2019 Vision 2020 next phase growth intentional evolution Steve Binnie Chief Executive Officer Sappi Limited 1 Forward-looking statements and Regulation G
Chief Executive Officer Steve Binnie Sappi Limited
delivering on
intentional
evolution
next phase
1
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Certain statements in this release that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information, are forward-looking statements, including but not limited to statements that are predictions of
“risk” and other similar expressions, which are predictions of or indicate future events and future trends and which do not relate to historical matters, identify forward-looking statements. In addition, this document includes forward-looking statements relating to our potential exposure to various types of market risks, such as interest rate risk, foreign exchange rate risk and commodity price risk. You should not rely on forward-looking statements because they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which are in some cases beyond our control and may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from anticipated future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements (and from past results, performance or achievements). Certain factors that may cause such differences include but are not limited to:
The highly cyclical nature of the pulp and paper industry (and the factors that contribute to such cyclicality, such as levels of demand, production capacity, production, input costs including raw
material, energy and employee costs, and pricing)
The impact on our business of adverse changes in global economic conditions Unanticipated production disruptions (including as a result of planned or unexpected power outages) Changes in environmental, tax and other laws and regulations Adverse changes in the markets for our products The emergence of new technologies and changes in consumer trends including increased preferences for digital media Consequences of our leverage, including as a result of adverse changes in credit markets that affect our ability to raise capital when needed Adverse changes in the political situation and economy in the countries in which we operate or the effect of governmental efforts to address present or future economic or social problems The impact of restructurings, investments, acquisitions, dispositions and other strategic initiatives (including related financing), any delays, unexpected costs or other problems experienced in
connection with dispositions or with integrating acquisitions or implementing restructurings or other strategic initiatives, and achieving expected savings and synergies, and
Currency fluctuations.
We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking statements, whether to reflect new information or future events or circumstances or otherwise.
Certain non-GAAP financial information is contained in this presentation that management believe may be useful in comparing the company’s operating results from period to period. Reconciliation's of certain of the non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures can be found in the quarterly results booklet for the relevant period. These booklets are available on our website: https://www.sappi.com/quarterly-reports.
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Key ratios Q1 FY17 Q1 FY18 Q1 FY19 Net debt/LTM EBITDA 1.7 1.8 2.0 Interest cover 7.7 9.9 10.9 EBITDA % 15.4 12.9 13.9 ROCE % 19.5 14.1 14.7
* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
100 140 180 220 260 300
172 (7) 131 (84) (11) (5) 1 197 Q1 FY18 EBITDA Sales volume Price & mix Variable & delivery costs Fixed costs Other Exchange rate Q1 FY19 EBITDA
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* EBITDA = EBITDA excluding special items
Sales revenue
US$ million
Notes:
2018 2017 Exchange rates: Average rate for the Quarter: US$1 = ZAR 14.3127 13.6220 Average rate for the Quarter: €1 = US$ 1.1409 1.1778 Dec
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* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items. Data above excludes treasury operations and insurance captive.
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100 200 300 400 500 600 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2032 US$ million Cash Short-term SPH term debt Securitisation SSA EUR450m bond EUR350m bond US$221m bond
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100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E US$ million Maintenance Efficiency and expansion
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Demand softening globally Capacity reductions expected in US and Europe
Pulp prices falling from historical highs on weak Chinese demand – declines differ by
Paper prices stable
Focus on costs to maintain margins Manage operating rates through conversions, market share, flexibility of machines Increase pulp integration over time
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More capacity entering the space – mostly containerboard Brand owners pushing for paper based packaging solutions Short term pressure on demand in consumer packaging and self-adhesives
Most sales prices rose into 2019, though insufficient to counter cost inflation Pulp prices have begun to decline from their historical highs
More M&A in the industry Ramp-up volumes from conversions, grow into new markets Maximise opportunities in paper-for-plastics shift
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Continued DWP and VSF capacity growth – both integrated and market 80% of swing capacity moved to DWP as paper pulp demand in China dried up
DWP selling prices are down as VSF prices decline on excess capacity. Weak RMB places further pressure on US$ input costs of VSF producers
Grow in-step with the market (debottlenecked volumes 2018/19, future plans for Saiccor) Evaluate external opportunities which will enable a substantial increase in volumes Align growth with leading VSF customers – environmental and social performance key
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* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
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* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
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* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Maintain a healthy balance sheet Rationalise declining businesses Accelerate growth in higher margin growth segments Achieve cost advantages
Improve
and machine efficiencies Maximise procurement benefits Optimise business processes
Continuously balance paper supply and demand in all regions Where possible convert paper machines to higher margin businesses
Optimise working capital Strong cash generation Smart financing Expand paper packaging grades Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Extract value from our biorefinery stream
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Improve
and machine efficiencies Maximise procurement benefits Optimise business processes
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Group efficiency and procurement initiatives US$60m
Ongoing continuous improvement across all mills. Investigate pulp integration opportunities in US and
Saiccor expansion will lead to lower variable costs €30m upgrade to Gratkorn mill
Continuously balance paper supply and demand in all regions Where possible convert paper machines to higher margin businesses
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Progressive transition of Lanaken Mill out of LWC. Reduced CWF exposure at Maastricht Mill, Ehingen
Optimise working capital Strong cash generation Smart financing
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Lower spread (165bp), cost and commitment fee Additional flexibility for acquisitions and disposals
Extract value from our biorefinery stream Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Expand paper packaging grades
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Debottlenecking of Saiccor and Ngodwana DWP
Additional packaging at Ngodwana and Tugela Mills. Securing additional HW timber supply. Biomaterials, bio-chemicals – lignins, sugars. Xylitol and Furfural demo plant to be built at Ngodwana Expansion of Saiccor by 110kt/annum has started Ramp-up of board grades at Maastricht and Somerset
We expect DWP sales volumes to increase this year following the completion of debottlenecking
Variable market conditions for speciality papers. Packaging and paperboard markets remain
Graphic paper markets have been weak, short term profitability will be negatively impacted if
2019 capex expected to be approximately $590m – majority at Saiccor, Lanaken and Gratkorn Given weak graphic paper markets and elevated pulp prices, we expect EBITDA in Q2 to be
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* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q4 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
175 195 160 209 201 208 155 221 172 211 155 224 197 112 133 97 145 136 145 93 152 105 142 85 148 128
50 100 150 200 250 US$ million
EBITDA Operating profit ex special items
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* EBITDA is excluding special items. ** The covenant Net debt/LTM EBITDA calculation has adjustments and therefore differs from that shown above. 2,380 2,248 2,286 1,946 2,040 1,916 1,917 1,771 1,734 1,652 1583 1408 1338 1329 1318 1322 1349 1632 1603 1568 1557 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 US$ million Net debt Net debt/LTM EBITDA**
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Alfeld Mill (Germany) Containerboard, flex-pack, label, paperboard, silicone base papers Carmignano Mill (Italy) Flexible packaging and functional papers Condino Mill (Italy) Flexible packaging and functional packaging Cloquet Mill* (USA) Label papers Ehingen Mill* (Germany) Containerboard Maastricht Mill* (The Netherlands) Paperboard Ngodwana Mill (South Africa) Containerboard Somerset Mill* (USA) Label paper and flexible packaging paper Tugela Mill (South Africa) Containerboard Westbrook Mill (USA) Silicone base papers Stockstadt Mill* (Germany) Flexible packaging and functional papers
Extract value from our biorefinery stream Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Expand paper packaging grades
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Europe
+10k specialities (Various)
North America
Extract value from our biorefinery stream Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Expand paper packaging grades
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Debottlenecking
additional 70kt swing capacity available Expansion
External
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* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Q1 FY19 Q4 FY18 Q1 FY18 Tons sold (‘000) 809 864 822 Sales (EURm) 642 671 571 Price/Ton (EUR) 794 777 695 Cost/Ton* (EUR) 756 733 657 Operating profit excluding special items** (EURm) 30 38 31
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0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2
Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18
CWF Demand MCR Demand CWF 100gsm Sheets LWC 60gsm offset reels Western Europe shipments including export. Source: Cepifine, Cepiprint and RISI indexed to calendar 1Q 2008.
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* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Q1 FY19 Q4 FY18 Q1 FY18 Tons sold (‘000) 321 363 343 Sales (USDm) 351 388 342 Price/Ton (USD) 1,093 1,069 997 Cost/Ton* (USD) 1,065 983 1,000 Operating profit excluding special items** (USDm) 9 31 (1)
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0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Domestic CWF shipments Domestic CWF purchases RISI price CFS #3 60lb rolls US industry purchases defined as industry shipments, plus imports, less exports. Source: AF&PA and RISI indexed to calendar Q1 FY08.
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* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Q1 FY19 Q4 FY18 Q1 FY18 Tons sold (‘000) 396 441 383 Sales (ZARm) 4,709 4,824 4,073 Price/Ton (ZAR) 11,891 10,939 10,634 Cost/Ton* (ZAR) 8,818 8,488 8,180 Operating profit excluding special items** (ZARm) 1,217 1,081 940
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* Source: FOEX, CCF group. 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 US$/ton NBSK Europe BHKP Europe Commodity DWP Cotton linter pulp
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* Source: CCF group. 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800 Cotton 328 Cotton "A" Index PSF 1.4 D VSF 1.2 D VSF 1.5 D
US$/ton
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US$m Q1 FY19 Q4 FY18 Q1 FY18 Cash generated from operations 197 212 162
Movement in working capital (87) 6 (83) Net finance costs paid (5) (24) (6) Taxation (paid) (3) (23) 6
Cash generated from operating activities 102 171 79 Cash utilised in investing activities (109) (145) (93)
Capital expenditure (106) (146) (88) Other movements (3) 1 (5)
Net cash generated (utilised) (7) 26 (14)
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* Refer to page 18 in our Q1 FY19 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
US$m Q1 FY19 Q4 FY18 Q1 FY18
EBITDA excluding special items* 197 224 172
Depreciation and amortisation (69) (76) (67)
Operating profit excluding special items* 128 148 105 Special items* - gains (losses)
(5) (13) 11 Plantation price fair value adjustment 3 (3) 16 Net restructuring provisions
(8) (3) (5)
Segment operating profit 123 135 116
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Source: IHS Global, RISI, Hawkins Wright.
Key strength Qualifies Issue Apparel Home textiles Nonwovens/Technical textiles
Overall value proposition Applications Function and feel Appearance Sustainability 17 62 21 66 27 7 52 20 28 Cellulosic fibres Cotton Polyester
property basis, cellulosic fibres are superior to cotton and differentiated
sustainability.
differentiated
durability versus cotton and cellulosic fibres.
‘greener’ alternative to cotton
well established
versatile Durability
Absorbency
Breathability
Softness
Drape
Dyeability
Brightness/Lustre
Renewable and biodegradeable
Resource efficiency
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Source: Sappi; Hawkins Wright; RISI. Other Europe Americas China
0.2 6.1 0.6 0.6 1.7 3.7 1.9 7.5 Market size 2017 Mtpa CAGR 2010-17% Viscose Cellulose ethers and MCC Cellulose acetate tow Nitro- cellulose and other Products (examples) 7.5 ~6-7 Total Rayon Grade High- alpha/ Speciality DWP grade Demand geography Applications (examples)
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Source: Expert interviews.
POLYESTER
Future Today Gap Today Future Gap Today Future Gap
COTTON CELLULOSIC
Apparel Home textile Towels 5% 5% 0% 80% 75%
15% 20% +33% Bedding 45% 55% +22% 45% 40%
1% 2% +100% Denim 5% 5% 95% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0% Shirts 35% 40% +14% 50% 40%
15% 20% +33% T-shirts 30% 50% +67% 70% 50%
3% 5% 0% Dresses 10% 10% 0% 35% 25%
55% 65% +18% Suits 35% 40% +14% 25% 20%
~1% ~2% +100% Sportswear 85% 85% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 15% 0% Casual wear 45% 50% +11% 45% 35%
10% 15% +50%
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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY18 Q1 19 Tons sold (‘000) 1,063 1,074 968 1,045 4,150 977 Sales 877 945 851 927 3,600 867 EBITDA 69 90 57 101 317 76
margin 8% 10% 7% 11% 9% 9%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY18 Q1 19 Tons sold (‘000) 287 302 277 332 1,198 297 Sales 241 279 245 278 1,043 263 EBITDA 78 83 60 88 306 91
margin 32% 30% 25% 32% 29% 35%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY18 Q1 19 Tons sold (‘000) 198 231 289 291 1,009 252 Sales 196 254 327 310 1,087 282 EBITDA 27 39 33 40 139 30
margin 14% 15% 10% 13% 13% 11%
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