Q1 FY19 financial results delivering on strategy 6 February 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Q1 FY19 financial results delivering on strategy 6 February 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Q1 FY19 financial results delivering on strategy 6 February 2019 2019 Vision 2020 next phase growth intentional evolution Steve Binnie Chief Executive Officer Sappi Limited 1 Forward-looking statements and Regulation G


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SLIDE 1

6 February 2019

Chief Executive Officer Steve Binnie Sappi Limited

Q1 FY19 financial results

delivering on

strategy

2019

Vision 2020

intentional

evolution

next phase

growth

1

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SLIDE 2

Forward-looking statements and Regulation G

2

 Forward-looking statements

Certain statements in this release that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information, are forward-looking statements, including but not limited to statements that are predictions of

  • r indicate future earnings, savings, synergies, events, trends, plans or objectives. The words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, “plan”, “assume”, “positioned”, “will”, “may”, “should”,

“risk” and other similar expressions, which are predictions of or indicate future events and future trends and which do not relate to historical matters, identify forward-looking statements. In addition, this document includes forward-looking statements relating to our potential exposure to various types of market risks, such as interest rate risk, foreign exchange rate risk and commodity price risk. You should not rely on forward-looking statements because they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which are in some cases beyond our control and may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from anticipated future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements (and from past results, performance or achievements). Certain factors that may cause such differences include but are not limited to:

 The highly cyclical nature of the pulp and paper industry (and the factors that contribute to such cyclicality, such as levels of demand, production capacity, production, input costs including raw

material, energy and employee costs, and pricing)

 The impact on our business of adverse changes in global economic conditions  Unanticipated production disruptions (including as a result of planned or unexpected power outages)  Changes in environmental, tax and other laws and regulations  Adverse changes in the markets for our products  The emergence of new technologies and changes in consumer trends including increased preferences for digital media  Consequences of our leverage, including as a result of adverse changes in credit markets that affect our ability to raise capital when needed  Adverse changes in the political situation and economy in the countries in which we operate or the effect of governmental efforts to address present or future economic or social problems  The impact of restructurings, investments, acquisitions, dispositions and other strategic initiatives (including related financing), any delays, unexpected costs or other problems experienced in

connection with dispositions or with integrating acquisitions or implementing restructurings or other strategic initiatives, and achieving expected savings and synergies, and

 Currency fluctuations.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking statements, whether to reflect new information or future events or circumstances or otherwise.

 Regulation G disclosure

Certain non-GAAP financial information is contained in this presentation that management believe may be useful in comparing the company’s operating results from period to period. Reconciliation's of certain of the non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures can be found in the quarterly results booklet for the relevant period. These booklets are available on our website: https://www.sappi.com/quarterly-reports.

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SLIDE 3

Highlights – Q1 2019

3

EBITDA* +15%

year-on-year

Net Profit +29%

year-on-year

EPS* +14%

year-on-year

Net debt +15%

year-on-year

  • Improved performance in difficult operating

climate

  • Strong growth in packaging volumes
  • Net debt increased due to Cham acquisition

and higher capital expenditure

Key ratios Q1 FY17 Q1 FY18 Q1 FY19 Net debt/LTM EBITDA 1.7 1.8 2.0 Interest cover 7.7 9.9 10.9 EBITDA % 15.4 12.9 13.9 ROCE % 19.5 14.1 14.7

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

Excluding special items*

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SLIDE 4

100 140 180 220 260 300

172 (7) 131 (84) (11) (5) 1 197 Q1 FY18 EBITDA Sales volume Price & mix Variable & delivery costs Fixed costs Other Exchange rate Q1 FY19 EBITDA

EBITDA* reconciliation

Q1 FY18 to Q1 FY19

4

* EBITDA = EBITDA excluding special items

Sales revenue

US$ million

Notes:

  • 1. All variances were calculated excluding Sappi Forestry.
  • 2. “Currency conversion” reflects translation and transactional effect on consolidation.

2018 2017 Exchange rates: Average rate for the Quarter: US$1 = ZAR 14.3127 13.6220 Average rate for the Quarter: €1 = US$ 1.1409 1.1778 Dec

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SLIDE 5

Product contribution split – LTM

5

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items. Data above excludes treasury operations and insurance captive.

41% 18% 41% Specialised Cellulose Packaging & Speciality Papers Printing Papers 53% 15% 32% EBITDA excluding special items Operating profit excluding special items

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SLIDE 6

Maturity profile

Fiscal years

6

350 80 27 47 45 536 442 69 221 376 79

100 200 300 400 500 600 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2032 US$ million Cash Short-term SPH term debt Securitisation SSA EUR450m bond EUR350m bond US$221m bond

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SLIDE 7

Capex development

7

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E US$ million Maintenance Efficiency and expansion

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SLIDE 8

8

Divisional overview

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SLIDE 9

Global P&W paper market trends

9

 Supply and demand

 Demand softening globally  Capacity reductions expected in US and Europe

 Selling prices and input costs

 Pulp prices falling from historical highs on weak Chinese demand – declines differ by

geography

 Paper prices stable

 Strategy

 Focus on costs to maintain margins  Manage operating rates through conversions, market share, flexibility of machines  Increase pulp integration over time

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SLIDE 10

Global speciality & packaging paper market trends

10

 Supply and demand

 More capacity entering the space – mostly containerboard  Brand owners pushing for paper based packaging solutions  Short term pressure on demand in consumer packaging and self-adhesives

 Selling prices and input costs

 Most sales prices rose into 2019, though insufficient to counter cost inflation  Pulp prices have begun to decline from their historical highs

 Strategy

 More M&A in the industry  Ramp-up volumes from conversions, grow into new markets  Maximise opportunities in paper-for-plastics shift

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SLIDE 11

Global DWP market trends

11

 Supply and demand

 Continued DWP and VSF capacity growth – both integrated and market  80% of swing capacity moved to DWP as paper pulp demand in China dried up

 Selling prices and input costs

 DWP selling prices are down as VSF prices decline on excess capacity.  Weak RMB places further pressure on US$ input costs of VSF producers

 Strategy

 Grow in-step with the market (debottlenecked volumes 2018/19, future plans for Saiccor)  Evaluate external opportunities which will enable a substantial increase in volumes  Align growth with leading VSF customers – environmental and social performance key

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SLIDE 12

Sappi Europe

12

Sales Tons -1.6%

year-on-year

Sales +9%

year-on-year

EBITDA* -2.9%

year-on-year

  • Printing and Writing volumes down 7%, while

specialities and packaging volumes up 50% (4% like-for-like) from last year

  • Packaging and specialities average net

selling prices were 17% (10% like-for-like) higher as a result of mix and price increases

  • Fixed costs 12% higher due to increased

headcount from Cham

  • Variable costs 17% higher primarily due to

purchased paper pulp

Excluding special items*

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

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SLIDE 13

Sappi North America

13

Sales Tons -6%

year-on-year

Sales +3%

year-on-year

EBITDA* +61%

year-on-year

  • Higher prices for most products and higher

DWP volumes lifted profitability

  • Coated paper markets weakened during the

quarter, however we increased volumes from European mills

  • Packaging and specialities volumes up 68%,

paperboard volumes and prices set to improve

  • Variable costs were higher due to purchased

paper pulps and optimization of PM1

Excluding special items*

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

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SLIDE 14

Sappi South Africa

14

Sales Tons +3%

year-on-year

Sales +10%

year-on-year

EBITDA* +20%

year-on-year

  • Strong improvement in performance due to

increases in volumes and selling prices

  • DWP volumes were lower sequentially due to

low inventories, but higher year-on-year

  • Volumes and prices were up for our

packaging grades. Price rose for our paper products, offsetting lower volumes

  • Fixed costs rose in-line with inflation.
  • Variable costs were higher due to the weaker

Rand, and higher US$ prices for coal, wood and paper pulps

Excluding special items*

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

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SLIDE 15

Maintain a healthy balance sheet Rationalise declining businesses Accelerate growth in higher margin growth segments Achieve cost advantages

Improve

  • perational

and machine efficiencies Maximise procurement benefits Optimise business processes

Continuously balance paper supply and demand in all regions Where possible convert paper machines to higher margin businesses

Optimise working capital Strong cash generation Smart financing Expand paper packaging grades Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Extract value from our biorefinery stream

Our group strategy

15

At Sappi we do business with integrity and courage; making smart decisions which we execute with speed. Our values are underpinned by an unrelenting focus on and commitment to safety.

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SLIDE 16

Achieve cost advantages

Improve

  • perational

and machine efficiencies Maximise procurement benefits Optimise business processes

Our group strategy

16

 We work to lower fixed and variable costs,

increase cost efficiencies and invest for cost advantages.

 Group efficiency and procurement initiatives US$60m

target for 2019: +US$80m achieved in 2018

 Ongoing continuous improvement across all mills.  Investigate pulp integration opportunities in US and

EU

 Saiccor expansion will lead to lower variable costs  €30m upgrade to Gratkorn mill

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SLIDE 17

Rationalise declining businesses

Continuously balance paper supply and demand in all regions Where possible convert paper machines to higher margin businesses

Our group strategy

17

 Recognising the decreasing demand for

graphic paper, we manage our capacity to strengthen our leadership position in these markets, realising their strategic importance to the group and maximising their significant cash flow generation.

 Progressive transition of Lanaken Mill out of LWC.  Reduced CWF exposure at Maastricht Mill, Ehingen

Mill and Somerset Mill PM1.

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SLIDE 18

Maintain a healthy balance sheet

Optimise working capital Strong cash generation Smart financing

Our group strategy

18

 Maintain leverage below 2x Net debt:EBITDA  Finance costs US$60-70m/annum going

forward.

 Renewal of RCF

 Lower spread (165bp), cost and commitment fee  Additional flexibility for acquisitions and disposals

 Will monitor bond markets for opportunities to

refinance at lower cost

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SLIDE 19

Accelerate growth in higher margin growth segments

Extract value from our biorefinery stream Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Expand paper packaging grades

Our group strategy

19

 We will make investments in existing and

adjacent areas with strong potential growth.

 Debottlenecking of Saiccor and Ngodwana DWP

complete, Cloquet in 2019.

 Additional packaging at Ngodwana and Tugela Mills.  Securing additional HW timber supply.  Biomaterials, bio-chemicals – lignins, sugars.  Xylitol and Furfural demo plant to be built at Ngodwana  Expansion of Saiccor by 110kt/annum has started  Ramp-up of board grades at Maastricht and Somerset

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SLIDE 20

 We expect DWP sales volumes to increase this year following the completion of debottlenecking

  • f Saiccor and Ngodwana.

 Variable market conditions for speciality papers. Packaging and paperboard markets remain

  • strong. Increased volumes from Somerset and Maastricht forthcoming.

 Graphic paper markets have been weak, short term profitability will be negatively impacted if

demand continues to be as weak as it has been recently.

 2019 capex expected to be approximately $590m – majority at Saiccor, Lanaken and Gratkorn  Given weak graphic paper markets and elevated pulp prices, we expect EBITDA in Q2 to be

slightly below that of last year. FY 2019 expected to be higher than that of last year.

20

Outlook

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SLIDE 21

Thank you

21

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SLIDE 22

22

Supplementary information

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SLIDE 23

Excluding special items*

23

EBITDA and operating profit

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q4 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

175 195 160 209 201 208 155 221 172 211 155 224 197 112 133 97 145 136 145 93 152 105 142 85 148 128

50 100 150 200 250 US$ million

EBITDA Operating profit ex special items

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SLIDE 24

24

Net debt/EBITDA development

* EBITDA is excluding special items. ** The covenant Net debt/LTM EBITDA calculation has adjustments and therefore differs from that shown above. 2,380 2,248 2,286 1,946 2,040 1,916 1,917 1,771 1,734 1,652 1583 1408 1338 1329 1318 1322 1349 1632 1603 1568 1557 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 US$ million Net debt Net debt/LTM EBITDA**

2.0 4.6

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SLIDE 25

Sappi specialities and packaging papers

25

Global production sites with the ability to switch between graphics and packaging at various sites*

Alfeld Mill (Germany) Containerboard, flex-pack, label, paperboard, silicone base papers Carmignano Mill (Italy) Flexible packaging and functional papers Condino Mill (Italy) Flexible packaging and functional packaging Cloquet Mill* (USA) Label papers Ehingen Mill* (Germany) Containerboard Maastricht Mill* (The Netherlands) Paperboard Ngodwana Mill (South Africa) Containerboard Somerset Mill* (USA) Label paper and flexible packaging paper Tugela Mill (South Africa) Containerboard Westbrook Mill (USA) Silicone base papers Stockstadt Mill* (Germany) Flexible packaging and functional papers

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SLIDE 26

Accelerate growth in higher margin growth segments

Extract value from our biorefinery stream Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Expand paper packaging grades

Speciality and packaging papers expansion plans

26

 Europe

Maastricht: complete, ramp-up by 2021

  • 160k CWF, +150k specialities (FBB)

Ehingen: complete

  • 75k CWF, +60k specialities (WTL)

Alfeld: construction to start FY19, complete by Q4 FY20

+10k specialities (Various)

Lanaken: enable CWF on PM8, as market develops

 North America

Somerset: construction done, 3 year ramp up

  • 150k CWF, +350k specialities (SBS)
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SLIDE 27

Accelerate growth in higher margin growth segments

Extract value from our biorefinery stream Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Expand paper packaging grades

DWP expansions

27

 Debottlenecking

Saiccor – 10kt complete April 2018

Ngodwana – 50kt complete September 2018

Cloquet – 30kt complete Q3 2019

additional 70kt swing capacity available  Expansion

Saiccor – 110kt ≈Q3 2020, construction has commenced

 External

Paper pulp prices impacting valuations and returns

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SLIDE 28

28

Sappi Europe

* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

Q1 FY19 Q4 FY18 Q1 FY18 Tons sold (‘000) 809 864 822 Sales (EURm) 642 671 571 Price/Ton (EUR) 794 777 695 Cost/Ton* (EUR) 756 733 657 Operating profit excluding special items** (EURm) 30 38 31

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SLIDE 29

Western Europe

29

Coated paper deliveries and prices

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2

Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18

CWF Demand MCR Demand CWF 100gsm Sheets LWC 60gsm offset reels Western Europe shipments including export. Source: Cepifine, Cepiprint and RISI indexed to calendar 1Q 2008.

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SLIDE 30

30

Sappi North America

* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

Q1 FY19 Q4 FY18 Q1 FY18 Tons sold (‘000) 321 363 343 Sales (USDm) 351 388 342 Price/Ton (USD) 1,093 1,069 997 Cost/Ton* (USD) 1,065 983 1,000 Operating profit excluding special items** (USDm) 9 31 (1)

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SLIDE 31

United States of America

31

Coated paper prices and shipments

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Domestic CWF shipments Domestic CWF purchases RISI price CFS #3 60lb rolls US industry purchases defined as industry shipments, plus imports, less exports. Source: AF&PA and RISI indexed to calendar Q1 FY08.

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SLIDE 32

32

Sappi South Africa

* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

Q1 FY19 Q4 FY18 Q1 FY18 Tons sold (‘000) 396 441 383 Sales (ZARm) 4,709 4,824 4,073 Price/Ton (ZAR) 11,891 10,939 10,634 Cost/Ton* (ZAR) 8,818 8,488 8,180 Operating profit excluding special items** (ZARm) 1,217 1,081 940

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SLIDE 33

33

Pulp prices*

* Source: FOEX, CCF group. 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 US$/ton NBSK Europe BHKP Europe Commodity DWP Cotton linter pulp

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SLIDE 34

34

Textile fibre prices*

* Source: CCF group. 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800 Cotton 328 Cotton "A" Index PSF 1.4 D VSF 1.2 D VSF 1.5 D

US$/ton

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SLIDE 35

Cash flow

35

US$m Q1 FY19 Q4 FY18 Q1 FY18 Cash generated from operations 197 212 162

Movement in working capital (87) 6 (83) Net finance costs paid (5) (24) (6) Taxation (paid) (3) (23) 6

Cash generated from operating activities 102 171 79 Cash utilised in investing activities (109) (145) (93)

Capital expenditure (106) (146) (88) Other movements (3) 1 (5)

Net cash generated (utilised) (7) 26 (14)

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SLIDE 36

Excluding special items reconciliation to reported operating profit

36

EBITDA and operating profit

* Refer to page 18 in our Q1 FY19 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

US$m Q1 FY19 Q4 FY18 Q1 FY18

EBITDA excluding special items* 197 224 172

Depreciation and amortisation (69) (76) (67)

Operating profit excluding special items* 128 148 105 Special items* - gains (losses)

(5) (13) 11 Plantation price fair value adjustment 3 (3) 16 Net restructuring provisions

  • (3)
  • Profit on disposal and written off assets
  • (4)
  • Fire, flood, storm and other events

(8) (3) (5)

Segment operating profit 123 135 116

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SLIDE 37

Fibre properties and applications

37

Cellulosic fibre properties helping drive that growth

Source: IHS Global, RISI, Hawkins Wright.

Key strength Qualifies Issue Apparel Home textiles Nonwovens/Technical textiles

Overall value proposition Applications Function and feel Appearance Sustainability 17 62 21 66 27 7 52 20 28 Cellulosic fibres Cotton Polyester

  • On a pure

property basis, cellulosic fibres are superior to cotton and differentiated

  • n

sustainability.

  • Polyester is

differentiated

  • n strength/

durability versus cotton and cellulosic fibres.

  • Natural and attractive,

‘greener’ alternative to cotton

  • Natural, functional and

well established

  • Cheap, durable and

versatile Durability

 

Absorbency

 

Breathability

 

Softness

  

Drape

 

Dyeability

  

Brightness/Lustre

  

Renewable and biodegradeable

 

Resource efficiency



 

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SLIDE 38

Dissolving wood pulp market

38

Viscose-grade DWP demand growth

Source: Sappi; Hawkins Wright; RISI. Other Europe Americas China

0.2 6.1 0.6 0.6 1.7 3.7 1.9 7.5 Market size 2017 Mtpa CAGR 2010-17% Viscose Cellulose ethers and MCC Cellulose acetate tow Nitro- cellulose and other Products (examples) 7.5 ~6-7 Total Rayon Grade High- alpha/ Speciality DWP grade Demand geography Applications (examples)

  • Textiles (viscose)
  • Non-wovens
  • Cellophane
  • Sausage skins
  • Construction
  • Food additives
  • Medicine fillers
  • Cosmetics
  • Cigarette filters
  • Paints and coatings
  • Films
  • Plastics
  • Explosives
  • Inks
  • Lacquers
  • Nail polish
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SLIDE 39

39

There is still significant headroom to increase the level of cellulosic fibre blending in most sub-categories

Source: Expert interviews.

POLYESTER

Future Today Gap Today Future Gap Today Future Gap

COTTON CELLULOSIC

Apparel Home textile Towels 5% 5% 0% 80% 75%

  • 6%

15% 20% +33% Bedding 45% 55% +22% 45% 40%

  • 11%

1% 2% +100% Denim 5% 5% 95% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0% Shirts 35% 40% +14% 50% 40%

  • 20%

15% 20% +33% T-shirts 30% 50% +67% 70% 50%

  • 29%

3% 5% 0% Dresses 10% 10% 0% 35% 25%

  • 29%

55% 65% +18% Suits 35% 40% +14% 25% 20%

  • 20%

~1% ~2% +100% Sportswear 85% 85% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 15% 0% Casual wear 45% 50% +11% 45% 35%

  • 22%

10% 15% +50%

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SLIDE 40

Product Segments

40

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY18 Q1 19 Tons sold (‘000) 1,063 1,074 968 1,045 4,150 977 Sales 877 945 851 927 3,600 867 EBITDA 69 90 57 101 317 76

margin 8% 10% 7% 11% 9% 9%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY18 Q1 19 Tons sold (‘000) 287 302 277 332 1,198 297 Sales 241 279 245 278 1,043 263 EBITDA 78 83 60 88 306 91

margin 32% 30% 25% 32% 29% 35%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY18 Q1 19 Tons sold (‘000) 198 231 289 291 1,009 252 Sales 196 254 327 310 1,087 282 EBITDA 27 39 33 40 139 30

margin 14% 15% 10% 13% 13% 11%

Packaging & Speciality Papers Printing & Writing Papers Dissolving Wood Pulp

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SLIDE 41

Thank you

41