Q1 2019 Earnings Presentation April 2019 2 Risks and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Q1 2019 Earnings Presentation April 2019 2 Risks and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Q1 2019 Earnings Presentation April 2019 2 Risks and Uncertainties, in our MD&A and may differ materially General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains historical information, descriptions of current from


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Q1 2019 Earnings Presentation

April 2019

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General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains historical information, descriptions

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current circumstances and statements about potential future developments and anticipated financial results. Readers are cautioned that this presentation is qualified in its entirety by reference to, and must be read in conjunction with, the information contained in West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.’s (WFT’s) management’s discussion and analysis for the year ended December 31, 2018 (MD&A), available on SEDAR (www.sedar.com). A person is not entitled to rely on parts

  • f the information contained in this presentation to the exclusion of
  • thers.

Forward-looking Statements: This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements, are presented to provide reasonable guidance to the reader but their accuracy depends on a number of assumptions and is subject to various risks and uncertainties. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “plans”, “targets”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “an opportunity exists”, “outlook”, “prospects”, “strategy”, “intends”, “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases or state that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might”, “will”, “will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. In addition, any statements that refer to expectations, intentions, projections

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  • ther

characterizations

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future events

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circumstances contain forward-looking information. Statements containing forward-looking information are not historical facts but instead represent management’s expectations, estimates and projections regarding future events or circumstances. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, which contribute to the possibility that the predictions, forecasts and other forward-looking statements will not occur. Actual outcomes and results of these statements will depend on a number of factors including those matters described under “Risks and Uncertainties”, in our MD&A and may differ materially from those anticipated or projected. Reference should be made to the other factors discussed in public filings with securities regulatory authorities. Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in relying upon forward-looking- statements and WFT undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as required by applicable securities laws. Non-IFRS Measures: This presentation makes reference to certain non-IFRS measures, such as EBITDA. Non-IFRS measures do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by others. For further information regarding the use of non-IFRS measures please refer to the “Non-IFRS Measures” section in the MD&A. External Information: Where this presentation quotes any information or statistics from any external source, it should not be interpreted that WFT has adopted

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endorsed such information

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statistics as being accurate. Some

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the information presented herein is based on or derived from statements by third parties and has not been independently verified by or on behalf by WFT, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information or any other information or

  • pinions contained herein.

Currency: In this presentation, all amounts are in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise indicated. Terminology: References in this presentation to “MMfbm” or “mmfbm” mean million board feet, “SPF” means spruce-pine-fir and “SYP” means southern yellow pine. For any other technical terms used in this presentation, please see the Glossary of Industry Terms found in our most recent Annual Report.

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0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% $270 $280 $290 $300 $310 $320 $330 $340 $350

Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119

Expenditures % change

Demand conditions U.S.

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 J F M A M J J A S O N D

U.S. Housing Starts (not seasonally adjusted)

2017 2018 2019 Seasonally adjusted: 2017: 1,203 2018: 1,250 2019: 1,193 ytd March Repair and renovation growth continues

Leading indicator of Remodeling Activity

Monthly $B 4 Qtr Moving Improvements and Repairs 4 Qtr Moving rate of Change Source: US Census Bureau Source: Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies

Limited growth needed for increased demand of 1 – 2 billion board feet

U.S. Housing Forecast (000) 2019 2020 RBC 1,313 1,335 RISI 1,280 1,310 FEA 1,277 1,386 Wells Fargo 1,270 1,290 Mortgage Bankers 1,268 1,320 NAHB 1,250 1,286 Fannie Mae 1,243 1,288 APA 1,230 1,220 Average 1,266 1,304

50k annual

increase in housing starts

3% growth in repair and renovation

~600Mfbm increase in lumber demand ~1,000Mfbm increase in lumber demand

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US South Poor Weather Fallout

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Difficult weather conditions late 2018 and early 2019

Source: National Center for Environmental Information

2019 2018

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5 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2018Q4 2019 Q1 North America Curtailments

Supply conditions

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 BC Canada US Total NA Lumber Supply 2017 2018

Down 5.5% Down 3.2% Up 3.5% Up 0.5%

Source: Western Wood Products Association, management estimates Source: Industry analysts, public filings, management estimates, FEA

Supply growth challenges

  • Equipment cost inflation affecting paybacks leads to cancelations
  • Contractor availability and lead times
  • Residual markets (new and existing)
  • Slower than expected start up schedule
  • Temporary curtailments become permanent

Billion fbm MMfbm

Mix of temporary and permanent

Curtailments a headwind to supply growth

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6 Adjusted EBITDAis defined as operating earnings plus amortization, equity based compensation and export duties.

Consolidated Financial Results

$ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q1-19 Q4-18 Lumber $ 84 $ 68 Panels 15 9 Pulp & Paper 11 47 Corporate/Other

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Total $ 110 $ 120 EBITDA margin 8.9% 9.4% Q1-19 Q4-18 Sales $ 1,241 $ 1,274 Cost and Expenses 1,231 1,259 Operating earnings 10 15 Finance Expense (11) (9) Other (5) 22 Earnings before Tax $ (6) $ 28 Tax recovery 1 1 Net earnings $ (5) $ 29 Diluted EPS $ (0.12) $ 0.29

Stronger wood products results offset by weaker pulp results

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Q1 Lumber Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation

Lower shipments and cost headwinds offset by higher prices

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Q1 Pulp and Paper Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation

Focused on recovering from downtime in NBSK

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Q1 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation

Offsetting results in lumber and pulp

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Q1-19 versus Q4-18

$ millions unless

  • therwise indicated

Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Change Lumber Shipments (MMfbm) 1,444 1,569 (125) (8%)

SPF shipments lower on market conditions, SYP shipments rebound slightly from Q4

Pulp Shipments (Mtonnes) 318 287 31 11%

BCTMP shipments higher from vessel delay in Q4-18

Adjusted Ebitda $110 $120 $(10) (8%)

Adjusted EBITDA better in lumber on better pricing and lower write downs, offset by increased costs in pulp from Hinton pulp production interruptions and shutdown

Cash flow from operations $(228) $12 $(240)

Log inventory working capital build in Western Canada for spring breakup follows the typical seasonal

  • trend. Carryover tax payments from 2018

Inventory $968 $791 $177

Lumber inventories in-line with Q4 and well below prior year

Capital Expenditure $108 $86 $22

Continuing to execute on capital plans and US South modernization program

Net Debt $1,001 $606 $395

Net debt increase influenced by seasonal log inventory build, carryover tax payments from 2018

Net Debt to Capital 27% 17% 1,000 bps Cumulative duties on deposit $359 $323 $36

Significant duties on deposit

Share buybacks $50 $118 $(68)

Maintaining balanced capital allocation

Despite difficult start to 2019, maintaining focus on priorities

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11 11 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900

2017 2018 Q1-17 Q1-18 Q1-19

Available liquidity

Bank lines Cash Demand facility

Liquidity

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Term loan Notes Revolver

Scheduled maturities

Ample financial flexibility

Cash consists of cash and short-term investments less cheques issued in excess of funds on deposit.

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Summary

✕ Extreme cold weather in Western Canada and high rainfall in US South tempered demand and impacted operations ✕ Delayed start to 2019 building season weighs on lumber demand ✕ Log price inflation in BC a continuing headwind ✕ Continued challenges at Hinton pulp ✕ BC government policy initiatives ✓ Transportation improved from prior year ✓ Maintained financial flexibility, executed balanced capital allocation strategy ✓ Increased liquidity by $100M after quarter end ✓ Continuing to invest in our platform