public schools and the 2017 18 state budget and beyond
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Public Schools and the 2017-18 State Budget and Beyond March 2017 - PDF document

3/20/2017 Public Schools and the 2017-18 State Budget and Beyond March 2017 www.nyscoss.org 1 The State Budget The State Budget The State Budget The State Budget Big Picture, Looking Ahead Big Picture, Looking


  1. 3/20/2017 Public Schools and the 2017-18 State Budget – and Beyond… March 2017 www.nyscoss.org 1 The State Budget The State Budget The State Budget The State Budget — — — Big Picture, Looking Ahead — Big Picture, Looking Ahead Big Picture, Looking Ahead Big Picture, Looking Ahead State Operating Funds Budget (millions of dollars) 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Projected Expenditures 98,062 102,551 106,841 110,871 Projected Surplus/(Deficit) 0 692 2,092 4,960 Cuts Needed to Achieve 2% Spending Growth NA (2,465) (4,753) (6,741) Total Structural Surplus/(Deficit) 0 (1,773) (2,661) (1,781) Structural Surplus/(Deficit) as % of Projected Expenditures 0% -1.7% -2.5% -1.6% Projected Change in School Aid ($) 961 996 1,113 1,299 Projected Change in School Aid (%) 3.9% 3.9% 4.2% 4.7% SOURCE: Compiled by the Council from NYS Division of the Budget, FY 2018 Executive Budget Financial Plan – Updated for Governor’s Amendments and Forecast Revisions. February 2017 NOTE: The State Constitution requires the Governor to propose a balanced budget. 2 1

  2. 3/20/2017 Two “big picture” budget issues Two “big picture” budget issues Two “big picture” budget issues Two “big picture” budget issues • The Governor proposes to extend the “millionaire’s tax” now due to expire after 12/31/2017 • Would keep top rate at 8.82% for single taxpayers with incomes over $1 million ($2 million for married); would drop to 6.85% otherwise • Without extension, state would forego $683 million in 2017-18 (1 quarter) and $3.4 billion in 2018-19 (full year) • Contingency language: • Several large appropriations– including School Aid – include language providing that in the event that receipts come in less than budgeted, the Budget Director would be authorized to reduce amounts available for payment by a uniform percentage • Arises from concerns over possible federal actions – e.g., repeal of the Affordable Care Act could cost the state $3.7 billion 3 The State Budget The State Budget The State Budget The State Budget — — — Big Picture, Looking Back — Big Picture, Looking Back Big Picture, Looking Back Big Picture, Looking Back Education and Medicaid have fared better than most budget areas Education and Medicaid have fared better than most budget areas Education and Medicaid have fared better than most budget areas Education and Medicaid have fared better than most budget areas % Change in Major State Operating Funds Areas 10% 8% % change over prior year 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% 2017-18 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Projected School Aid 1.9% 1.5% 7.1% 8.1% 6.5% 4.0% Medicaid 3.7% 2.2% 3.0% 3.7% 4.2% 5.9% All else 1.5% 1.4% -0.6% -1.0% -0.6% -0.2% Total Budget 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% ��������� �������������������������������������������������������������������������� � �����������!��"������#�������������������������������������"��$% 4 2

  3. 3/20/2017 A possible narrative… Read the report here: http://www.nyscoss.org/img/uploads/Press_ Releases/2016-Finance-Survey-Report- FINAL_1.pdf 3

  4. 3/20/2017 ������������������������������������������������������������� ���������������������������������������������������������������� ������������������������������������������������ ������������������� �������������� ,������������� ��������������� �������������������� !" #" &" #" %" #" #$$" )" Last year (2015) +$" #'" #*" !&" was the 1 st that !(" !*" ($" more %#" *$" superintendents )$" '#" ')" responded '$" '&" '#" '&" “better” than %$" “worse.” %!" &$" !$" !(" !&" Continued this #%" #$" #'" year. $" &" %" %" #" #$" !!" !$## !$#! !$#& !$#% !$#' !$#) 7 ������������������������������������������������������������� ���������������������������������������������������������������� ������������������������������������������������ ������������������� �������������� ,������������� ��������������� �������������������� &" !" #" #" %" #" #$$" )" But, still no more +$" #'" #*" than 1/3 rd of !(" !*" ($" superintendents *$" Have ever )$" responded that '$" their district’s %$" financial &$" condition has !$" improved. #$" $" !$## !$#! !$#& !$#% !$#' !$#) 8 4

  5. 3/20/2017 -���.����������&���������������������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������������������������������/����� ����������������������������� � 0�������� 1���� �����)" ������������ ������������� ���������������� #+" �������#" ������������������������ 1���� ��������������������������� ������������ ���������� #" ��������� �������������������������� ������������ ������������������������������ #+" ��������� ����������������������� ������������� '&" ≈ ������������������ • ������������� • ���������!��"#����������� 9 Near Near- Near Near -term, long - - term, long term, long- term, long - - -term divergence term divergence term divergence term divergence • Poorer districts tend to be more positive about this year, more pessimistic looking ahead. With more affluent districts, the reverse was true. • Probably reflective of differences in primary revenue source: ���������������������������������������������� ��������� "�������� !$#'2#)� ���������,��� "����82)���������� ��������� 3��������"� 4����5� 3��������"� ���������� ������ 6�������� ���������� �����������������9�������� ����������� ������������ ,���7 �������� ������������������� ����& '()�*��������(+ $�%�& �%"& ��%"& �%"& �����& "�%�& �%"& $%!& �%!& ���,�& !�%$& �%"& "% & �% & ,��!�& ,"%$& �%!& !%�& �%�& .����!�&�'(/�����������(+ ,�%$& �%!& !%�& %�& -���������� -���������� -���������� -���������� '+5!" $5*" )5+" !5!" ������� �0��������������������������������1����������2�����-�#�3�2����0���� ����4�����5�0�������������������������� 10 5

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