Prom oting Cooperation & Transparency of Oil Data Managem ent - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Prom oting Cooperation & Transparency of Oil Data Managem ent - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 02, 2023 141 likes •607 views

Prom oting Cooperation & Transparency of Oil Data Managem ent through JODI Fuad A. Al-Zayer Head Data Services Departm ent OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 1 OUTLI NE Transparent oil data essential for m arket

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Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

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Prom oting Cooperation & Transparency

  • f Oil Data Managem ent through JODI

Fuad A. Al-Zayer Head Data Services Departm ent OPEC

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Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

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Transparent oil data essential for m arket stability Data m anagem ent in OPEC Joint Oil Data I nitiative ( JODI )

OUTLI NE

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Transparent oil data essential for m arket stability Data m anagem ent in OPEC Joint Oil Data I nitiative ( JODI )

OUTLI NE

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TRANSPARENT OI L DATA ESSENTI AL FOR MARKET STABI LI TY Support sound decision m aking Encourage investm ents Reduce m arket volatility Facilitate im proved short-term forecasts Ensure oil m arket stability

W hy is good data essential for oil m arket stability? W hy is good data essential for oil m arket stability?

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TRANSPARENT OI L DATA ESSENTI AL FOR MARKET STABI LI TY Econom ic forecast W orld oil dem and Non-OPEC supply I nventories Refinery utilization and m argins Oil and product prices OPEC OPEC’ ’s production decisions s production decisions – – significant im pact significant im pact

  • n the oil m arket
  • n the oil m arket

Decisions based on Decisions based on

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Challenges in assessing oil data Challenges in assessing oil data Unreliable - poor quality data Unavailability of certain data Revision of historical data Uncertainty about m arket outlook TRANSPARENT OI L DATA ESSENTI AL FOR MARKET STABI LI TY

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Expectation of fundam entals is a tool to predict inventory m ovem ents

Market Fundam entals Market Fundam entals

DEMAND NON-OPEC SUPPLY OPEC PRODUCTI ON

TRANSPARENT OI L DATA ESSENTI AL FOR MARKET STABI LI TY

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Price Pressure Psychology ( Geopolitical Tension, etc.) Manipulation ( Speculators) Market Fundam entals ( DATA) Stock Change Expectation of inventory m ovem ents, am ong other factors, drives the direction of crude oil prices. .

Oil Price & Market Fundam entals Oil Price & Market Fundam entals TRANSPARENT OI L DATA ESSENTI AL FOR MARKET STABI LI TY

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W TI versus US Crude Stocks W TI versus US Crude Stocks

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 255 270 285 300 315 330 345 360

1994 - 2003 2004 2005 2006 Linear (1994 - 2003)

Million Barrels US$ / Barrel

TRANSPARENT OI L DATA ESSENTI AL FOR MARKET STABI LI TY

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Continued revisions of historical oil dem and Continued revisions of historical oil dem and

1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 A p r-0 4 J u l-0 4 O c t-0 4 J a n -0 5 A p r-0 5 J u l-0 5 O c t-0 5 J a n -0 6 Reporting Month mb/d OPEC Source 1 Source 2 Source 3 Source 4

2 0 0 3 w orld oil dem and in 2 0 0 3 : 7 9 .2 m b/ d

TRANSPARENT OI L DATA ESSENTI AL FOR MARKET STABI LI TY

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Transparent oil data essential for m arket stability Data m anagem ent in OPEC Joint Oil Data I nitiative ( JODI )

OUTLI NE

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DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC

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Data Managem ent an I ntegral Part of Research Data Managem ent an I ntegral Part of Research Activities in OPEC Activities in OPEC RESEARCH DI VI SI ON Data Services

  • Dept. ( DSD)

Energy Studies Dept. Petroleum Market Analysis Dept.

DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC

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DSD

Public Relations & Information Dept. (PRID) Energy Studies

  • Dept. (ESD)

Petroleum & Market

  • Dept. (PMAD)

SG Research Division

DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC

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Data Dissem ination

I n-house Research Publications I ntranet W EB

JODI

Data Processing

Data Collection

Direct Com m unication Secondary Sources

DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC

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OPEC Database OPEC Database Macroeconom ic Com ponents Reserves, Capacity Energy Statistics and Balances Oil Supply Oil Dem and Refinery Operations Prices JODI

DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC

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OPEC database OPEC database

JODI DATABASE

OPEC DATABASE

DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC

Secondary Sources Direct Sources

I EA/ OECD I MF W orld Bank Platt’s Petroleum Argus OPEC Mem ber Countries Non-OPEC countries: e.g. China, Mexico etc.

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OPEC w ebpage OPEC w ebpage -

  • w w w .opec.org

w w w .opec.org

DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC

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OPEC w ebpage OPEC w ebpage -

  • w w w .opec.org

w w w .opec.org

DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC

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DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC

OPEC w ebpage OPEC w ebpage -

  • w w w .opec.org

w w w .opec.org

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Transparent oil data essential for m arket stability Data m anagem ent in OPEC Joint Oil Data I nitiative ( JODI )

OUTLI NE

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JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

Consum er-producer dialogue dates back to the 1 9 8 0 ’s Com m on interest of producers and consum ers Stable oil m arket Reliable and transparent oil data

JODI

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JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

JODI launched in 2 0 0 1 by six organizations - OPEC, APEC, Eurostat, I EA, OLADE and UNSD Response to a directive from Ministers at the 7 th I nternational Energy Forum ( I EF) Nov. 2 0 0 0 , w ho saw the need for an initiative that w ould enhance “cooperation am ong relevant international

  • rganizations, as w ell as participating countries, in

im proving tim ely access to energy data”

Objective of JODI Objective of JODI

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7th IEF Meeting in Riyadh 2000

High volatility in oil prices Lack of transparent reliable statistics Efforts to increase data transparency Ministers at I EF support better data

Birth of Joint Oil Data Exercise

Raise aw areness for oil data Transparent consum er-producer oil data

JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

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THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

w w w .jodidata.org

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Focus on data quality Focus on data quality

Bangkok

Apr 01

Riyadh

Nov 01

Mexico

May 02

Osaka

Sep 02

Riyadh

Nov 00

Cairo

Oct 03

From JODE to JODI (permanent mechanism) From JODE to JODI (permanent mechanism)

Amsterdam May 04

Background Background

Bali Oct 04

Necessity for transparent timely and reliable data Necessity for transparent timely and reliable data Release of JODI World database Release of JODI World database

Riyadh

Nov 05

Launch of JODE Launch of JODE

?

THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

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Launch of JODI w orld database Launch of JODI w orld database THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

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Participating countries Participating countries

92 Countries 92 Countries

Global Oil Production Global Oil Production 90% 90% Global Oil Consumption Global Oil Consumption 90% 90%

THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

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Achievem ents of JODI Achievem ents of JODI Political aw areness in data reliability I m proved attitude tow ard data confidentiality Strengthened producer-consum er dialogue Cooperation THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

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Cooperation Cooperation Establishm ent of a joint review com m ittee Broader cooperation on data issues Joint w orkshops THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

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Data m anagem ent Data m anagem ent -

  • know ledge in JODI

know ledge in JODI Broader data accessibility Enhanced aw areness of statistical data I m proved oil data quality THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

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Broader data accessibility Broader data accessibility

kb Algeria 2 ,8 5 9 Argentina 4 ,4 0 7 Brunei Darussalam 2 ,2 7 3 Brazil 2 5 ,6 4 3 Bulgaria 2 ,0 7 4 Chile 6 ,9 2 6 Chinese Taipei 2 8 ,9 8 4 Costa Rica 4 6 4 Cyprus 2 1 9 Ecuador 9 ,0 3 7 El Salvador 7 0 5 Jam aica 9 4 0 Kazakhstan 3 3 ,2 3 5 Lithuania 1 ,9 8 6 Nicaragua 6 3 9 Nigeria 1 0 ,2 1 2 Peru 2 ,3 6 8 Philippines 9 ,6 7 6 Rom ania 2 ,5 5 2 Russian Federation 5 0 0 ,2 4 1 Saudi Arabia 1 6 7 ,6 4 4 South Africa 1 4 ,1 3 4 Venezuela 4 4 ,9 1 0

Reported Non-OECD crude oil stocks in 2004 = 873 mb THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

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I ncreased aw areness I ncreased aw areness Acknow ledgem ent of I EFS role Participation of oil industry Coverage by m edia I nterest in JODI w orld database THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

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I ncreased aw areness of JODI at high level m eetings I ncreased aw areness of JODI at high level m eetings and in the m edia and in the m edia

1 0 th I nternational Energy Forum ( Doha, April 2 0 0 6 )

“Ministers reaffirm ed their com m itm ent to providing tim ely and accurate data to JODI and envisaged co-operation in expanding, in due course, the initiative to include data of other sources of energy that are im portant in the w orld energy m ix.”

THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

Meeting of G8 energy m inisters ( Moscow , March 2 0 0 6 )

G8 statem ent on energy security: “Ministers confirm our support for appropriate international initiatives such as the Joint Oil Data I nitiative aim ed at greater accessibility and transparency of data…”

I nternational oil

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Collected inform ation Collected inform ation Monthly crude/ product data ( M-1 ) on

Production I m port Export Closing Stocks/ Stocks Change Refinery I ntake Refinery Output Dem and

THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

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Country: Country: Month: Month: Unit: Unit:

Production Imports Exports Closing Change Refinery Intake Crude Oil Stocks Petroleum Products LPG Gasoline Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Fuel Oil Total Oil Refinery Output Imports Exports Closing Change Demand Stocks

Simple Definitions Simple Definitions Month -1 and Month -2 Month -1 and Month -2 Choice of units left to organisations Choice of units left to organisations A Simple Format (42 data points) A Simple Format (42 data points)

THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI ) JODI Questionnaire JODI Questionnaire

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Contents of JODI w orld database Contents of JODI w orld database

Monthly crude/ product data ( M-1 ) Production Closing Stocks/ Stocks Change Dem and w w w .jodidb.org

THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

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The JODI w orld database

Open to the public since 1 9 Novem ber 2 0 0 5 w w w .jodidb.org THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

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Data Available in Different Formats

THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

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Built-in graph function

You can move dimensions You can merge dimensions You can access Metadata

THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

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Demand for Total Products THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

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Consult Metadata Not Assessed Reasonable levels of comparability

THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI )

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Continue to prom ote JODI Continue to im prove the quality of JODI W orld database and its expansion JODI training and m anual 6 th JODI Conference -Nov0 6 Riyadh THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI ) Future Outlook of JODI Future Outlook of JODI

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CONCLUSI ON

Transparency of oil data is vital for m arket stability Enhanced m anagem ent of oil data at OPEC JODI is fundam ental for cooperation betw een producers and consum ers

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