Processing TLEs to facilitate re-entry prediction of spent rocket - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Processing TLEs to facilitate re-entry prediction of spent rocket - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Processing TLEs to facilitate re-entry prediction of spent rocket bodies from GTO Aleksander A. Lidtke 1 David J. Gondelach 1 , Roberto Armellin 2 , Camilla Colombo 1 Hugh G. Lewis 1 , Quirin Funke 3 , Tim Flohrer 3 1 - Astronautics Research

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Processing TLEs to facilitate re-entry prediction of spent rocket bodies from GTO

Aleksander A. Lidtke1 David J. Gondelach1, Roberto Armellin2, Camilla Colombo1 Hugh G. Lewis1, Quirin Funke3, Tim Flohrer3 1 - Astronautics Research Group, University of Southampton 2 - Departamento de Matemáticas y Computación, Universidad de La Rioja 3 - European Space Operations Center

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Re-entry prediction

2 16 Mar 2016

Time

Knowledge

  • f the

present Prediction

  • f the

future MODEL Altitude

Reality Now Prediction

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

How to improve TLE-based predictions

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

How to improve TLE-based predictions

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Today AAS 2016, Napa, CA

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Problems with TLEs

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Problems with TLEs

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Problems - in life

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Addressing problems (with TLEs)

1. Corrected TLEs 2. Time gaps 3. Outliers in mean motion and events that physically change the object 4. Outliers in eccentricity and B* – need to estimate the ballistic coefficient 5. Outliers in inclination – need orbit determination to converge

8 16 Mar 2016

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Corrections

Before 2011 After 2011

9 16 Mar 2016

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Corrections

Before 2011 After 2011

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Time gaps

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Mean motion outliers

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Mean motion outliers

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Events – change BC and SRPC

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Mean motion filter tuning

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Mean motion filter tuning

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Outliers in n, e, i, and B*

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Outliers in n

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Outliers in e

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Outliers in i

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Outliers in B*

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Re-entry prediction error

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Time

Altitude

Reality Prediction epoch Prediction

78 km 𝜐𝐵 Δ𝜐 Relative error: 𝜀𝜐 =

Δ𝜐 𝜐𝐵

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Effects of filtering on prediction accuracy

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Importance of filtering

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Conclusions and recommendations

  • Filtering of the TLEs is key to get good predictions, however

it isn’t always necessary

  • Filter in all orbital elements you’re using
  • Be wary that the TLEs change with time (2011, 2013…)
  • Outliers => robust statistics

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Contact:

Aleksander Lidtke Astronautics Research Group Faculty of Engineering and the Environment University of Southampton Southampton SO17 1BJ United Kingdom : al11g09@soton.ac.uk : www.aleksanderlidtke.com

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Changes in TLE generation process

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

Why do we care

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0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 1 10 100 500 1000 10000 More

Object fraction Object count Mass bin (kg)

Object count Fraction

Large objects – many R/Bs

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

We don’t know the re-entry epoch too well

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24 hours lead time.

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We don’t know the re-entry epoch too well

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48 hours lead time.

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6th International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques

We don’t know the re-entry epoch too well

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74 hours lead time.

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When we filter too many TLEs

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When we filter too many TLEs

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When we DO NOT filter TLEs

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