PRIVATE ACUTE HEALTHCARE MARKET Latest Trends & Forecasts a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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PRIVATE ACUTE HEALTHCARE MARKET

Latest Trends & Forecasts

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October 2017

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• Histor
• rical

ical Revenu enue e Growth wth

• Forecasts

recasts

• By payor groups
• By Central London/rest of UK

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Agenda

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Historical Revenue Growth

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Definition: :

UK Independent Hospital & Clinics + PPU Revenues Includes some fertility and screening services UK Market = worth £5.8 billion in 2016 5.6% annual growth (nominal) since 2006 £5.2 billion = Independent (Private/Voluntary) hospitals £0.6 billion = NHS private patient revenues

Private Acute Medical Hospital Market

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Note: All data is nominal

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LaingBuisson Private Acute Medical Care Hospital & Clinic Revenues

(including NHS private patients)

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100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Indexed d Growth th (2006 06=1 =100 00) Private Patient Only 3.7% CAGR Total private acute hospital market 5.6% CAGR

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(National)

61.3% 46.3% 15.7% 29.9% 19.3% 17.9% 3.8% 6.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2006 2015 PMI NHS Self-Pay International

Note: All data is nominal. Excludes PPUs.

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Note: All data is nominal. Excludes PPUs

Funding Mix for Independent Acute Medical Hospitals

(Central London vs Rest of UK, 2015)

57.0% 43.0% 1.0% 38.0% 19.0% 18.0% 23.0% 1.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Central London Rest of UK PMI NHS Self-Pay International

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LaingBuisson Private Acute Medical Care Hospital Revenues

(Central London vs Rest of UK)

Note: All data is nominal

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Includes PPUs 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Indexed d Growth th (2006=1 06=100) 00) Central London market 7.2% CAGR Rest of UK 5.1% CAGR

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Forecasts – Hospital and Clinic Revenue

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PMI-funded Independent Hospital Revenue Growth

3.1% 4.9% 8.2% 2.7% 1.4% 1.7% 2.7% 0.9% 2.0% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Nominal inal Growth th (%)

Note: All data is nominal

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CAGR% (2006-2016) 2.6%

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NHS funded Independent Hospital Revenue Growth

Note: All data is nominal

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15.5% 33.1% 23.6% 14.1% 10.4%10.6%10.8% 9.8% 9.9% 6.8% 5.7% 6.0% 6.0% 7.0% 7.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Nominal inal Growth th (%) CAGR% (2006-2016) 13.2%

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Self-Pay Funded Revenue Growth

0.2%

• 2.6%-1.1%

7.1% 8.9% 5.8% 5.8% 4.5% 9.5% 8.6%10.0% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0%9.0%

• 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020 Nominal inal Growth th (%)

Note: All data is nominal

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CAGR % (2006-2016) 5.6%

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International Private Funding Revenue Growth

2.8% 1.8% 4.4% 9.2% 15.4% 14.0% 24.0% 23.1% 9.2% 3.5%

• 3.7%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

• 10%
• 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Nominal inal Growth th (%)

Note: All data is nominal

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CAGR% (2006-2016) 9.8%

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NHS PPU Revenue Growth

Note: All data is nominal

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2.7%

• 0.5%

2.9%

• 2.1%

3.6% 4.4% 4.2% 4.9% 5.1% 5.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

• 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Nominal inal Growth th (%) CAGR% (2006-2016) 3.3%

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Summary - Private Acute Market Revenue Growth

Note: All data is nominal

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Includes PPUs 4.1% 6.7% 8.7% 5.2% 5.0% 5.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.8% 4.4%3.9% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9%4.8% 2.5% 2.5% 5.6% 3.1% 3.6% 3.4% 4.6% 3.4% 4.4% 3.5% 3.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Nominal inal Growth th (%) Total National % Of which PPO only % Total National CAGR% (2006-2016) 5.6% Of which: PPO only 3.7%

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Central London Private Acute Market Growth Forecasts

9.1% 5.1% 13.4% 8.9% 9.3% 7.1% 9.7% 9.0% 5.4% 2.1% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.5% 9.6% 1.5% 5.1% 15.4% 10.8% 8.3% 9.4% 8.3% 6.7% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Nominal inal Growth th (%) Independent NHS PPUs

Note: All data is nominal

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CAGR% (2006-2016) Independent sector 7.0% PPU 7.8%

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Out of Central London Private Acute Market Growth Forecasts

Note: All data is nominal

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2.5% 3.8% 2.3% 1.6% 1.8% 2.6% 0.8% 3.9% 3.6% 3.7% 5.5% 4.5% 4.2% 3.7% 33.1% 23.6% 14.1% 10.4%10.6%10.8% 9.8% 9.9% 6.8% 5.7% 6.0% 6.0% 7.0% 7.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Nominal inal Growth th (%) Independent PPO Only £million NHS £million CAGR% (2006-2016) Independent sector PPO 2.7% NHS 13.2%