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2015 Q3 Results Analyst Meeting and 2016 Business Plan
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Presentation 2015 Q3 Results Analyst Meeting and 2016 Business Plan Disclaimer The information (Confidential Information) contained in this presentation is strictly confidential and is provided by Ananda Development Public Company Limited
2015 Q3 Results Analyst Meeting and 2016 Business Plan
Disclaimer
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The information (“Confidential Information”) contained in this presentation is strictly confidential and is provided by Ananda Development Public Company Limited (the “Company”) to you solely for your reference. Neither this presentation nor any part thereof may be (i) used or relied upon by any other party or for any other purpose; (ii) copied, photocopied, duplicated or otherwise reproduced in any form or by any means; or (iii) redistributed, passed on or otherwise disseminated, to any other person either in your organization or elsewhere, without the prior written consent of the Company. By attending this presentation, participants agree not to remove this document, or any materials provided in connection herewith, from the conference room where such documents are provided without express consent from the
reasonable, the Confidential Information is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, has not been independently verified and it may not contain all material information concerning the Company. None of the Company, or any of their respective members, directors, officers, employees or affiliates nor any other person accepts any liability (in negligence, or otherwise) whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation for sale or subscription of or solicitation or invitation of any offer to or recommendation to buy or subscribe for any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract, commitment or investment decision in relation thereto in Thailand, United States or any other jurisdiction. Any such purchase should be made solely on the basis of the information contained in the announcements to the Stock Exchange of Thailand relating to such securities. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information set forth in this presentation or on its completeness. This presentation contains projections and forward‐looking statements that reflect the Company's current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on a number of estimates and current assumptions which are subject to business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies as well as various risks and these may change over time and in many cases are outside the control of the Company. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. No assurance can be given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that the Company's assumptions are correct. Such forward‐looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and accordingly, the actual results, financial condition, performance or achievements of the Company may differ materially from those forecasted and projected or in the forward‐looking statements.
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3Q/2015 Financial Statements
3Q2015 2Q2015 3Q2014 % Q-o-Q % Y-o-Y M Baht % M Baht % M Baht %
Total revenue
2,665 100% 1,541 100% 2,024 100% 73% 32%
Revenue from sale of real estate
2,251 84% 1,198 78% 1,667 82% 88% 35%
Gain on sale of project land
0% 0% 110 5% N/A (100%)
Other incomes
414 16% 343 22% 247 12% 21% 67%
Gross Profit
994 38% 621 42% 735 40% 60% 35%
SG&A
611 23% 441 29% 417 21% 39% 46%
Selling expenses
352 13% 211 14% 186 9% 67% 89%
Administrative expenses
259 10% 229 15% 231 11% 13% 12%
Other expenses
0% 0% 0% N/A N/A
Share of Profit (Loss)
(152) (6%) (124) (8%) (132) (7%) N/A N/A
EBIT
295 11% 134 9% 354 17% 121% (16%)
Interest expenses
54 2% 70 5% 56 3% (22%) (2%)
EBT
241 9% 64 4% 298 15% 279% (19%)
Tax
80 33% (8) N/A 73 24% N/A 10%
Net Profit
161 6% 72 5% 225 11% 124% (29%)
Earnings per share (baht)
0.05 0.02 0.07 124% (29%)
Net Profit excluding gain on land sale
161 6% 72 5% 172 9% 124% (6%) Note: Moved our big paragon sales event to 3Q15 from that event was normally happened in 4Q
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9M/2015 Financial Statements
9M2015 9M2014 % Y-o-Y M Baht % M Baht %
Total revenue
5,600 100% 6,333 100% (12%)
Revenue from sale of real estate
4,650 83% 5,805 92% (20%)
Gain on sale of project land
0% 110 2% (100%)
Other incomes
950 17% 418 7% 127%
Gross Profit
2,161 40% 2,235 36% (3%)
SG&A
1,442 26% 1,163 18% 24%
Selling expenses
738 13% 427 7% 73%
Administrative expenses
704 13% 736 12% (4%)
Other expenses
0% 3 0% (100%)
Share of Profit (Loss)
(333) (6%) (151) (2%) N/A
EBIT
590 11% 967 15% (39%)
Interest expenses
186 3% 153 2% 22%
EBT
404 7% 814 13% (50%)
Tax
97 24% 160 20% (39%)
Net Profit (Loss)
307 5% 655 10% (53%)
Earnings per share (baht)
0.09 0.20 (53%)
Net Profit excluding gain on land sale
307 5% 601 10% (49%)
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3Q/2015 Financial Highlight
3Q2015 2Q2015 3Q2014 % Q-o-Q % Y-o-Y
M Baht M Baht M Baht Cash balance 2,230 1,788 1,579 25% 41% Assets 20,809 19,949 16,337 4% 27% Interest bearing debts 9,940 10,417 7,797 (5%) 27% Liabilities 12,964 13,117 10,070 (1%) 29% Shareholders' equity 7,845 6,832 6,266 15% 25% D/E ratio (times) 1.7 1.9 1.6 (14%) 3% Net IBDE ratio (times) 1.0 1.3 1.0 (22%) (1%)
1Q15 (A) 2Q15 (A) 3Q15 (F) 3Q15 (A) 4Q15 (F) 8,617 2,050 3,766
5,003
3,973 738 1,065 686
1,206
1,032 Unit : Mil Baht Condo Housing
2015 Presales target between 23,500 and 24,000 M Baht
Quarter Condo (M Baht) Housing (M Baht) Total (M Baht) Quarter 1 8,617 738 9,355 Quarter 2 2,050 1,065 3,115 Quarter 3 3,766 686 4,452 Quarter 3 Actual
5,003 1,206 6,209
Quarter 4 3,973 1,032 5,005
Grand Total 19,643
4,041 23,684
1Q15 (A) 2Q15 (F) 3Q15 (A) 3Q15 (F) 4Q15 (F)
7 7
Q3/2015 Presales above our latest guidance 39% 2015 guidance above our initial guidance 3%
Record Housing Presales in Q3/2015
Full Year guidance decreased 10%
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Updated: Sep 30, 2015
Project Value (M Baht) Net Sales (M Baht) Backlog (M Baht) Unsold Inventory (M Baht) Housing (Existing) 8,496 1,175 449 4,122 Condo (Existing) 44,610 1,392 24,645 7,141 Sub total (Existing) 53,106 2,567 25,105 11,265
Housing (2015 Launched) 2,919 980 951 1,939 Condo (2015 Launched) 23,299 10,271 10,271 13,027 Sub total (2015 Launched) 26,217 11,250 11,221 14,967
Grand Total
79,323 13,817 36,325 26,232
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Total Gross Presales Value (M Baht) New Launches 11,885 Existing Projects 6,794
Total Gross Presales
18,679
new launches this year still to come
New
81%
19%
81% achieved of 2015 initial
annual presales
Presales YTD Presales to achieve in Q4
9
9 9
10
10 10
11 11
12
12 12
2015 2016 2017 2018 3,767 5,533 1,961 3,108 5,683 3,278 2,986 5,460 3,150 1,251 148
Unit: Mil Baht
Ananda's Backlog - Condo Ananda's Backlog in JV - Condo Mitsui's Share Ananda's Backlog - Housing
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Updated: Sep 30, 2015
5,018 11,776 6,428 13,104
2015 2016 2017 2018
4Q15 secured by Backlog
Backlog as of September 2015
Backlog as of Dec 2014
27.1
Bn Baht Presales from New Launches 11.9 Bn Baht Cancelled 4.9 Bn Baht Presales from Existing 6.8 Bn Baht Backlog as of Sep 2015
36.3
Bn Baht
85%
Transferred 4.7 Bn Baht
57% 35% 13%
Unit: M Baht
secured by Backlog
13 13
1Q15 (A) 2Q15 (A) 3Q15 (F) 3Q15 (A) 4Q15 (F) 10,496 2,005 10,518
10,759
8,305 3,036 Unit : M Baht Condo Housing
2015 Launches target between 34,000 and 35,000 M Baht
Quarter
Condo
(M Baht)
Housing
(M Baht)
Total
(M Baht)
Quarter 1 10,496
Quarter 2 2,005 3,036 5,041 Quarter 3 10,518
Quarter 3 Actual
10,759
Quarter 4 8,305
Grand Total 31,565
3,036 34,601
1Q15 (A) 2Q15 (A) 3Q15 (A) 3Q15 (F) 4Q15 (F)
14 14
Full Year guidance decreased 4%
Q3/2015 Launches above our latest guidance 2% 2015 guidance above our initial guidance 10%
2 projects combined value of 1.5 Bn Baht in Q4 delay to Q1 2016
15 15 15
Location
BTS/MRT/Expressway Products
DECO” Value for the Future
“Bang Sue Grand Station”
New
Location
Nonsi Products
“Vertical Interlocking Concept”
1Q15 (A) 2Q15 (A) 3Q15 (F) 3Q15 (A) 4Q15 (F) 868 808 1,280
1,811
4,491 332 391 777
440
1,406 Unit : Mil Baht Condo Housing
2015 Revenue target between 10,000 and 11,000 M Baht
Quarter
Condo
(M Baht)
Housing
(M Baht)
Total
(M Baht)
Quarter 1 868 332 1,201 Quarter 2 808 391 1,198 Quarter 3 1,280 777 2,056 Quarter 3 Actual
1,811 440 2,251
Quarter 4 4,491 1,406 5,896 Grand Total
7,978 2,569 10,547
Full year Revenue unchanged
1Q15 (A) 2Q15 (A) 3Q15 (A) 3Q15 (F) 4Q15 (F)
16 16
Q3/2015 Revenue above our latest guidance 9%
Source Total Project Value Begins
Revenue in 3Q2015 Revenue to achieve in the Q4/15
Revenue to be transferred after year 2015
Already Sold (As of Sep 15)
M Baht % M Baht % M Baht % M Baht % M Baht 6,238 4Q2013 1%
38
0%
24
0% 0%
17
1,479 2Q2014 8%
113
7%
110
4% 62 7%
98
3,321 4Q2014 9%
294
15%
489
9% 302 8%
255
3,830 4Q2014 11%
406
9%
360
44% 1,671 6%
237
2,210 3Q2015 43%
960
32%
708
25% 542 16%
358
3,770 4Q2015 0%
2,801
26% 969 80%
3,016
8,496 1Q2013 5%
411
7%
604
47% 3,960 5%
449
2,919 3Q2015 1%
29
27%
802
72% 2,088 33%
951
Total
32,262
2,251 5,896
9,593
5,382
Updated: Sep 30, 2015
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Updated: Sep 30, 2015
Cancelled Value: 1,436 M Baht Cancelled Value: 463 M Baht Cancelled Value: 1,900 M Baht Cancelled Value: 1,634 M Baht Cancelled Value: 287 M Baht Cancelled Value: 1,921 M Baht
3.1% 10%
3.6% 3Q15 2Q15
18 18
Note: % Cancellation Rates are calculated by cancelled value divided by total presales
3.7% 6.2%
3.9%
Updated: Sep 30, 2015
1.9%
7.5%
7.9% 30.1%
13.9%
3Q15 2Q15
19 19
Note: % Mortgage Rejection Rates are shown by units
35.1%
Construction of condos on schedule Launches successful Perpetual security launched in August
Presales 39% above target Record Housing Presales Revenue rose 73% QoQ and 32% YoY Revenue from Real Estate – 9% above guidance Record Backlog – 36 Bn Baht Net IBDE – on target at 1 times
20 20
In 2015 the company extended its leadership in the mass transit condo market with discipline In 2016 Ananda will harvest revenue after launching projects raised capital from IPO in December 2012 In 2016 capital cycle means lower launches and presales than 2015 In 2016 operational priorities remain the same
Retained Priorities
spending to immediately transferable inventory
targeted at 20-40% only
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Retained Priorities (Cont.)
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1Q16 (F) 2Q16 (F) 3Q16 (F) 4Q16 (F) 1,361 1,520 1,510 4,751 873 582 535 870 3,108 Unit : Mil Baht Condo Housing Ananda Share in JV
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2016 Revenue target between 14,500 and 15,500 M Baht
Quarter Condo (M Baht) Housing (M Baht) Total (M Baht) Ananda Share in JV (M Baht)
1
Grand Total (M Baht)
Quarter 1 1,361 873 2,234
Quarter 2 1,520 582 2,102
Quarter 3 1,510 535 2,046
Quarter 4 4,751 870 5,620 3,108 8,728 Grand Total 9,142
2,860 12,002 3,108 15,110
1Q16 (A) 2Q16 (F) 3Q16 (F) 4Q16 (F)
2015 Revenue Growth Rate 43% YoY
Note: 1 Joint Venture with Mitsui Fudosan
Source Type Total Project Value Begins
Revenue to achieve in the 2016
Revenue to be transferred after year 2016
Already Sold for 2016 Revenue Target
M Baht % M Baht % M Baht % M Baht Existing Projects Condo 14,609 2Q2014- 4Q2015 21%
3,103
3% 442 1%
216
Existing Projects Housing 11,415 1Q2013- 3Q2015 24%
2,703
29% 3,344 1%
148
Ideo Q Ratchathewi Condo 2,020 2Q2016 100%
2,020
0%
2,000
Ideo Mobi Sukhumvit Eastgate Condo 2,634 3Q2016 56%
1,471
44% 1,164 55%
1,461
Ideo Mobi Wongsawang Interchange Condo 1,817 4Q2016 71%
1,294
29% 522 62%
1,120
UNIO Condo 2,016 4Q2016 62%
1,253
38% 763 36%
735
New Housing (2) Housing 2,769 4Q2016 6%
157
94% 2,612 0%
37,280 12,002 8,847 5,681
Ideo Q Chula-Samyan (JV)1 Condo 6,773 4Q2016 90% 6,094 10% 679 97% 6,559
Grand Total 40,735 15,110 9,193 9,026
Updated: Sep 30, 2015
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Note: 1 Joint Venture with Mitsui Fudosan and Ananda 51% Share
1Q16 (F) 2Q16 (F) 3Q16 (F) 4Q16 (F) 4,395 8,705 3,382 3,221
1,239
Condo Housing
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2016 Launches target between 22,000 and 23,000 M Baht
Quarter
Condo
(M Baht)
Housing
(M Baht)
Total
(M Baht)
Quarter 1 4,395
Quarter 2 8,705 1,530 10,235 Quarter 3 3,382 1,239 4,621 Quarter 4 3,221
Grand Total 19,703
2,769 22,472
1Q16 (A) 2Q16 (F) 3Q16 (F) 4Q16 (F)
2016 Launches Growth Rate (35%) YoY and Launches 10 Sites (JV 4 Sites accounting for 62% of total launches)
24 24
1Q16 (F) 2Q16 (F) 3Q16 (F) 4Q16 (F) 3,677 5,118 4,487 5,462 922 545 766 832 Unit : Mil Baht Condo Housing
25
2016 Presales target between 21,500 and 22,500 M Baht
Quarter
Condo
(M Baht)
Housing
(M Baht)
Total
(M Baht)
Quarter 1 3,677 922 4,599 Quarter 2 5,118 545 5,664 Quarter 3 4,487 766 5,254 Quarter 4 5,462 832 6,294 Grand Total 18,745
3,066 21,811
1Q16 (A) 2Q16 (F) 3Q16 (F) 4Q16 (F)
2015 Presales Growth Rate (8%) YoY
25 25
26 Note : (1) Tax Shield from ADO
Item 2013 Actual 2014 Actual 2015 Guidance 2016 Guidance
Revenue from Real Estate (M Baht) 8,808 9,678 10,000 – 11,000 14,500-15,500 Presales (M Baht) 21,083 20,898 22,500 – 23,500 21,500-22,500 Gross Profit Margin 37% 38% 34% 32% Total Debt / Equity, Year End 1.10 1.47 1.65 1.22 Net Interest Bearing D / E, Year End 0.30 0.74 0.78 0.93 Effective Tax Rate 21% 18% <20%(1) 20% Launches (M Baht) 34,213 14,954 31,000 – 32,000 22,000-23,000 Land Purchases (M Baht) 4,343 10,284 4,150 5,000
26 26
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
10,547 12,002 14,000 10,000 28,000 3,108 8,000 16,000 7,000 5,018 5,533 1,961 4,650 10,547 15,110 19,914 21,537 2,142 3,108 5,683 3,278
Ananda's revenue Ananda's 51% share in JVs Ananda's backlog Ananda transferred Land secured Ananda's backlog in JV
4Q15 secured by Backlog
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
secured by Backlog
100% 100% 91% 83% 6%
10,547 15,110 22,000 35,000 26,000
Updated: Sep 30, 2015
Unit: M Baht
9,668 8,641 7,644 3,278 27 27
Note: The 5-year plan has assumption of no new capital and keeping net IDE ratio at 1:1
87% 46% 94% 45%
Economic situation not strong GDP growth projections revised down Land price increases slowing Construction costs constrained Consumer confidence remains weak Banks remain strongly supportive – Perp Our customer group remains “cashed up” and with good credit Mass Transit Supply/Demand varies by station Mass Transit market more robust than general market
Source : University of Thai Chamber
28 28
59% 47% 58% 36% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0-300 m. > 1,000 m. 2013 2014
Initial Sales Rate
Sources: AREA
Updated : 09 Nov 2015 Under Construction
(2016)
Hua Lampong (2019)
Samutprakarn (2020)
Talingchan (2018)
(2018)
Kukod (2019)
Awarding within 2015
(2019)
Awarding within 2016
Buddamonthon Sai 4 (2021)
Ratburana (2022)
Center - Minburi (2022)
Donmuang (2019)
(2020)
Awarding within 2017
– Bang Pu (2022)
Luk Ka (2022)
Current Line Under Construction Awarding in 2015 -2017
Mass Transit Network Expansion
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30 30
Updated : 09 Nov 2015
Line Value (M Baht) Approval Status 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Purple (Bang Yai-Bang Sue) 63,674 Approved Blue (Bang Sue-Tha Pra) and (Hua Lamphong-Bang Kae) 82,592 Approved Green (Bearing-Samut Prakarn) 27,834 Approved Light Red (Bangsue-Talingchan) 9,311 Approved Light Red (Bangsue-Huamark) 44,157 To be approved by 2015 Red (Bangsue-Rangsit) 84,854 Approved Green (Mochit-Sapanmai-kukot) 58,387 Approved Blue (Bang Kae-Buddmonthon Sai 4) 17,262 To be approved by 2016 Pink (Karai-Pakkred-Minburi) 56,725 To be approved by 2016 Yellow (Ladprao-Pattanakarn-Samrong) 54,768 To be approved by 2016 Orange (Cultural Center-Bangkapi- Minburi) 110,325 To be approved by 2016 Purple South (Taopoon-Ratburana) 131,171 To be approved by 2016 Airport Rail Link (Phayathai-Don Muang Airport) 31,139 To be approved by 2016 Green (Samut Prakarn-Bang Pu) 13,701 To be approved by 2017 Green (Kukot-Lam Luk ka) 11,969 To be approved by 2017
Ananda Development PLC 2015
Contact:
Head of Financial Strategy and Investor Relations Ananda Development Public Company Limited john@ananda.co.th +662 697 3300 Mobile: +66 877 99 1946
Investor Relations Manager Ananda Development Public Company Limited komsan@ananda.co.th +662 697 3300 Mobile: +66 819 16 3755
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32 32 32
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Updated: Sep 30, 2015
Project Launched Value (M Baht) %Net Sold Net Sales (M Baht) Backlog (M Baht) Unsold Inventory (M Baht) %Transfer
AD3: Ideo Mobi Phayathai Feb-12 1,466 100.0% 37
AD3: Ideo Mobi Sathorn Feb-12 1,888 99.6% 13
99.2% AD3: Ideo Mobi Rama 9 Feb-12 2,884 100.0% 97 9
ADO: Atoll (Housing) Feb-13 8,496 51.5% 1,175 449 4,122 46.2% AD 14: Elio Sukhumvit 64 Mar-13 1,479 95.1% 276 98 73 88.4% AD14: Ideo Sathorn – Tha Phra Jul-13 3,830 53.2% (68) 237 1,793 47.0% AD14: Elio Del Ray Aug-13 3,321 83.9% 661 255 535 76.2% AD 15: Ideo Wutthakat Aug-13 2,210 59.7% 291 358 891 43.5% AD15: Ideo Mobi Charun- Interchange Oct-13 3,770 80.0% 342 3,016 753
Oct-13 2,020 99.0% (5) 2,000 20
Oct-13 6,773 96.8% 6 6,559 214
Sep-14 6,705 98.0% 35 6,572 133
Ratchathewi1 Sep-14 3,813 77.6% (529) 2,960 853
Wongsawang-Interchange Sep-14 1,817 61.7% 13 1,120 696
Eastgate Sep-14 2,634 55.5% 223 1,461 1,173
53,106 2,567 25,105 11,265
Note: 1 Joint Venture with Mitsui Fudosan
Updated: Sep 30, 2015
Project Launched Value (M Baht) % Net Sold
Net Sales (M Baht) Backlog (M Baht) Unsold Inventory (M Baht) AD18: Ashton Chula-Silom1 Mar-15 8,670 63.6% 5,516 5,516 3,154 AD17: Ashton Residence 41 Mar-15 1,854 56.2% 1,041 1,041 812 AD16: Unio Jun-15 2,016 36.5% 735 735 1,281 AD16: Arden 3 projects Jun-15 2,919 33.6% 980 951 1,939 AD17: Ideo Sukhumvit 115 Aug-15 2,7312 33.7% 920 920 1,812 AD17: Q Chidlom1 Aug-15 2,9832 38.4% 1,146 1,146 1,836 AD18: Ideo O21 Aug-15 5,0453 18.1% 913 913 4,132
Sub total (2015 Launched) 26,217 11,250 11,221 14,967 Grand total
79,323 13,817 36,325 26,232
34 34
Note: 1 Joint Venture with Mitsui Fudosan
2 Opened 50% of total units
3 Opened a third of 3 buildings or 33% of total units