Presentation on the Impact of Raising MEAP and MME Cut Scores to be - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Presentation on the Impact of Raising MEAP and MME Cut Scores to be - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Presentation on the Impact of Raising MEAP and MME Cut Scores to be Consistent with College and Career Readiness 1 P R E S E N T E D F O R D I S C U S S I O N B Y T H E M I C H I G A N S T A T E B O A R D O F E D U C A T I O N January

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January 11, 2011

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Presentation on the Impact of Raising MEAP and MME Cut Scores to be Consistent with College and Career Readiness

P R E S E N T E D F O R D I S C U S S I O N B Y T H E M I C H I G A N S T A T E B O A R D O F E D U C A T I O N

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Background

 November, 2006 Michigan State Board of

Education Meeting

 Board item presented four options for Michigan

Merit Examination (MME) cut scores:

  • 1. Cut scores recommended by the standard setting panel (less

rigorous than MEAP HST)

  • 2. Cut scores equivalent in difficulty to the MEAP HST
  • 3. Cut scores equivalent in difficulty to ACT College Readiness

Benchmarks (more rigorous than MEAP HST)

  • 4. Cut scores halfway between options 2 and 3 (as a

compromise)

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Background

November, 2006 Michigan State

Board of Education Meeting

 The Michigan State Board of Education

adopted option 2

 Cut scores equivalent in difficulty to the

MEAP HST cut scores

 Board members requested revisiting cut

scores to raise them to college readiness in future years

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Background

 Current Status

 Four cohorts of high school students have now taken the MME  The first cohort of students required to complete all Michigan

Merit Curriculum (MMC) requirements took the MME in Spring 2010

 The High School Content Expectations have been in place for

four years

 The Grade Level Content Expectations have been in place for

six years

 The Common Core State Standards have been adopted by the

State Board

 Based on college and career readiness and being on track to becoming

college and career ready

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Background

 Current Status

Current cut scores are based on skills

sufficient to succeed in an old manufacturing economy

New economy means that cut scores should

reflect…

 Preparedness for college and career (in high

school)

 Being on track (in elementary and middle school)

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

$20,246 $27,963 $31,947 $36,399 $48,097 $58,522 $80,776 $87,775 $0 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000

9th-12th Grade Non-Grad HS Graduate (or GED) Some College Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree Master's Degree Doctoral Degree Professional Degree

Median Annual Earnings Educational Attainment Median Annual Earnings by Educational Attainment

Why College Ready?

Source: Current Population Survey, 2008

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Why College Ready?

Source: American Community Survey, 2004

16 18 19 19 19 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 30 31 31 32 32 33 33 34 35 35 37 48

10 20 30 40 50 60

West Virginia Arkansas Mississippi Kentucky Nevada Louisiana Indiana Alabama Tennessee Oklahoma South Dakota Ohio New Mexico Idaho Iowa North Dakota Wisconsin Missouri Michigan South Carolina North Carolina Pennsylvania Arizona Wyoming Florida Georgia Texas Maine Nebraska U.S. Average Alaska Montana Oregon Utah Delaware Rhode Island Kansas Hawaii Illinois California Minnesota New York Washington Vermont New Hampshire Virginia New Jersey Colorado Connecticut Maryland Massachusetts District of Columbia

Percent of Adults with BS/BA or Higher

Percent of Adults with Bachelor's Degrees or Higher by State

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Why College Ready?

Source: American Community Survey, 2004

16 18 19 19 19 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 30 31 31 32 32 33 33 34 35 35 37 48

10 20 30 40 50 60

West Virginia Arkansas Mississippi Kentucky Nevada Louisiana Indiana Alabama Tennessee Oklahoma South Dakota Ohio New Mexico Idaho Iowa North Dakota Wisconsin Missouri Michigan South Carolina North Carolina Pennsylvania Arizona Wyoming Florida Georgia Texas Maine Nebraska U.S. Average Alaska Montana Oregon Utah Delaware Rhode Island Kansas Hawaii Illinois California Minnesota New York Washington Vermont New Hampshire Virginia New Jersey Colorado Connecticut Maryland Massachusetts District of Columbia

Percent of Adults with BS/BA or Higher

Percent of Adults with Bachelor's Degrees or Higher by State

In 2004, Michigan was ranked #33 among the 50 states plus D.C. (below the national average)

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Background

 Michigan’s Trajectory in Moving Toward College and

Career Readiness Performance Expectations

  • 1. Increased Rigor of Content Expectations

 Grade Level Content Expectations (2004-2005)  High School Content Expectations (2006-2007)

  • 2. Increased Rigor of Student Course Taking Expectations

 Michigan Merit Curriculum (2007)

  • 3. College and Career as Focus of Content Expectations

 K-12 College and Career Readiness Standards (2010)

  • 4. Focus of Test Content on College and Career

 High School (Michigan Merit Examination, 2007)  All Grades (SMARTER/Balanced Assessment Consortium)

  • 5. Cut Scores Reflective of College and Career Readiness

 College and Career Ready Cut Scores (High School)  On-Track Cut Scores (Elementary and Middle School)

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Preliminary Cut Score Study

 Defining College and Career Readiness

 College Readiness

 Ready to succeed in first-semester credit-bearing college courses

without remediation

 Career Readiness  Ready to succeed in introductory technical career training courses

without remediation

Why “without remediation?”

 25% of first-time freshmen in Michigan community colleges take

remedial courses

 College students who take remedial courses rather than credit

bearing courses are more likely to drop out

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Preliminary Cut Score Study

 Identifying College and Career Ready Cut Scores

 Reading and Mathematics only

 AYP subjects

 Based on ACT College Readiness Benchmarks

 21 in Reading  22 in Mathematics

 Percent of Michigan 11th grade public school students who

met ACT College Readiness Benchmarks in Spring 2010

 38 percent in Reading (65 percent “proficient” on MME)  30 percent in Mathematics (50 percent “proficient” on MME)

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Preliminary Cut Score Study

 Identifying College and Career Ready Cut

Scores

What about Career Readiness?

National Assessment Governing Board (NAGB) study Intend to use NAGB methodology for

Smarter/Balanced Assessment Consortium definitions

Limiting the Current Discussion to College

Readiness

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Preliminary Cut Score Study Methods

Basic strategy

Start with ACT college readiness benchmarks

Good starting point Will need to refine the study What we have for now

Work backward toward grade three, matching

students from current grades to previous grades

Identify cut scores with approximately equal

rigor across all grade levels

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Preliminary Cut Score Study Results

Grade Cut Scores Current Projected Increase (in SD's) Math Reading Math Reading Math Reading 3 300 300 336 337 1.64 1.52 4 400 400 435 435 1.51 1.06 5 500 500 530 534 0.92 1.16 6 600 600 629 633 1.01 1.49 7 700 700 729 733 1.02 1.17 8 800 800 822 831 0.79 1.29 11 1100 1100 1113 1120 0.35 0.63

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Preliminary Cut Score Study Results

87 81 73 65 60 63 46 95 92 80 82 82 70 50 34 38 40 38 39 39 29 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 3 4 5 6 7 8 11

Percent Proficient Grade Actual and Projected Percent Proficient in Mathematics

Actual Percentages in Base Year (2005-06 for MEAP, 2006-07 for MME) Actual Percentages in 2009 (with current cut scores) Projected Percentages in 2009 (with projected college ready cut scores)

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Preliminary Cut Score Study Results

87 83 80 80 76 73 60 90 84 85 88 82 83 65 39 48 44 35 36 38 38 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 3 4 5 6 7 8 11

Percent Proficient Grade Actual and Projected Percent Proficient in Reading

Actual Percentages in Base Year (2005-06 for MEAP, 2006-07 for MME) Actual Percentages in 2009 (with current cut scores) Projected Percentages in 2009 (with projected college ready cut scores)

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Preliminary Impact Study on AYP

 Re-ran 2009-10 AYP with the new cut scores  Used 2011-12 school year high school thresholds

(targets) for AYP

 86% for reading  78% for math

 Why use the 2009-10 data with new cut scores?

 Most recent data we have for all schools

 Why the 2011-12 thresholds?

 Soonest new cut scores could be in place

 Provides a reasonable estimate of the impact

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Preliminary Impact Study on AYP

 Projection: 66% of schools would not make AYP

86 14 34 66

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Making AYP Not Making AYP Percent of Schools Current and Projected AYP Results

Under Current Cut Scores (Actual) Under College Ready Cut Scores (Projected)

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Preliminary Impact Study on AYP

Impact on MI-SAAS

 Because of the connection of AYP to MI-

SAAS (and because a minimum of 5% of schools would be unaccredited)…

 A maximum of 34% of schools would be

accredited

 Approximately 61% of schools would be

interim accredited

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

The Superintendent’s Recommendation

 Increase cut scores for the 2011-12 school year

 SBE policy has led us step by step to this point  The time is right

 GLCEs, HSCEs, and MMC fully implemented  Need to recognize the new economy  Need to change focus of K-12 education to preparing students

for success in college and/or technical career training

 Need to prepare for Smarter/Balanced assessments in 2014

 2011-12 is the earliest that new cut scores can be

implemented

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College Ready Cut Scores for MEAP and MME • January 11, 2011 • Michigan State Board of Education

Contact Information

 Joseph A. Martineau, Ph.D.

 Director of Educational Assessment & Accountability  Michigan Department of Education  martineauj@michigan.gov  517-241-4710