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■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

❘❡✜♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠❡tr✐❝s ♦❢ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡♠❡♥t P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥

■❞❡♥t✐✜❡s ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❝❛✈❡❛ts ♦❢ ❡①✐st✐♥❣ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✳ ❙✉❣❣❡sts ❛♥ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❡✿ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳ ❱❛❧✐❞❛t❡s t❤❡ r❡❧❡✈❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❜②✿

✶ ❚❡st✐♥❣ ❢♦r ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s✳ ✷ ■❞❡♥t✐❢②✐♥❣ s❡❧❢✲r❡♣♦rt❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤ts✳ ✸ ❊st✐♠❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥

■❞❡♥t✐✜❡s ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❝❛✈❡❛ts ♦❢ ❡①✐st✐♥❣ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✳ ❙✉❣❣❡sts ❛♥ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❡✿ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳ ❱❛❧✐❞❛t❡s t❤❡ r❡❧❡✈❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❜②✿

✶ ❚❡st✐♥❣ ❢♦r ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s✳ ✷ ■❞❡♥t✐❢②✐♥❣ s❡❧❢✲r❡♣♦rt❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤ts✳ ✸ ❊st✐♠❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥

■❞❡♥t✐✜❡s ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❝❛✈❡❛ts ♦❢ ❡①✐st✐♥❣ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✳ ❙✉❣❣❡sts ❛♥ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❡✿ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳ ❱❛❧✐❞❛t❡s t❤❡ r❡❧❡✈❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❜②✿

✶ ❚❡st✐♥❣ ❢♦r ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s✳ ✷ ■❞❡♥t✐❢②✐♥❣ s❡❧❢✲r❡♣♦rt❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤ts✳ ✸ ❊st✐♠❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥

■❞❡♥t✐✜❡s ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❝❛✈❡❛ts ♦❢ ❡①✐st✐♥❣ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✳ ❙✉❣❣❡sts ❛♥ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❡✿ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳ ❱❛❧✐❞❛t❡s t❤❡ r❡❧❡✈❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❜②✿

✶ ❚❡st✐♥❣ ❢♦r ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s✳ ✷ ■❞❡♥t✐❢②✐♥❣ s❡❧❢✲r❡♣♦rt❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤ts✳ ✸ ❊st✐♠❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥

■❞❡♥t✐✜❡s ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❝❛✈❡❛ts ♦❢ ❡①✐st✐♥❣ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✳ ❙✉❣❣❡sts ❛♥ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❡✿ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳ ❱❛❧✐❞❛t❡s t❤❡ r❡❧❡✈❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❜②✿

✶ ❚❡st✐♥❣ ❢♦r ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s✳ ✷ ■❞❡♥t✐❢②✐♥❣ s❡❧❢✲r❡♣♦rt❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤ts✳ ✸ ❊st✐♠❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥

■❞❡♥t✐✜❡s ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❝❛✈❡❛ts ♦❢ ❡①✐st✐♥❣ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✳ ❙✉❣❣❡sts ❛♥ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❡✿ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳ ❱❛❧✐❞❛t❡s t❤❡ r❡❧❡✈❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❜②✿

✶ ❚❡st✐♥❣ ❢♦r ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s✳ ✷ ■❞❡♥t✐❢②✐♥❣ s❡❧❢✲r❡♣♦rt❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤ts✳ ✸ ❊st✐♠❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥

■❞❡♥t✐✜❡s ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❝❛✈❡❛ts ♦❢ ❡①✐st✐♥❣ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ✉s❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✳ ❙✉❣❣❡sts ❛♥ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❡✿ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳ ❱❛❧✐❞❛t❡s t❤❡ r❡❧❡✈❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❜②✿

✶ ❚❡st✐♥❣ ❢♦r ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s✳ ✷ ■❞❡♥t✐❢②✐♥❣ s❡❧❢✲r❡♣♦rt❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤ts✳ ✸ ❊st✐♠❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥

▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥

▼❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❝❧✐♠❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ✇❡❛t❤❡r ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❝♦♠❡ ✇✐❞❡s♣r❡❛❞ ✐♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ r❡s❡❛r❝❤❀ ❜♦t❤ ❛s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥str✉♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✳ ❉r♦✉❣❤t ✐s ♣r♦❜❛❜❧② t❤❡ ♠♦st ❞❡✈❛st❛t✐♥❣ t②♣❡ ♦❢ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ❤❛③❛r❞✳ P♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❣r♦✇t❤ ❛♥❞ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ✇❛r♠✐♥❣ ♠✐❣❤t ❧❡❛❞ t♦ ♠♦r❡ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ❞✐s❛st❡rs ✐♥ ♥❡❛r ❢✉t✉r❡✳ ■♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ st✉❞② t❤❡ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s ♦❢ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✱ ✐t ✐s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t t♦ ♠✐♥✐♠✐③❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡♠❡♥t ❡rr♦r ❛♥❞ ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥❡✐t②✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥

▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥

▼❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❝❧✐♠❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ✇❡❛t❤❡r ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❝♦♠❡ ✇✐❞❡s♣r❡❛❞ ✐♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ r❡s❡❛r❝❤❀ ❜♦t❤ ❛s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥str✉♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✳ ❉r♦✉❣❤t ✐s ♣r♦❜❛❜❧② t❤❡ ♠♦st ❞❡✈❛st❛t✐♥❣ t②♣❡ ♦❢ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ❤❛③❛r❞✳ P♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❣r♦✇t❤ ❛♥❞ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ✇❛r♠✐♥❣ ♠✐❣❤t ❧❡❛❞ t♦ ♠♦r❡ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ❞✐s❛st❡rs ✐♥ ♥❡❛r ❢✉t✉r❡✳ ■♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ st✉❞② t❤❡ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s ♦❢ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✱ ✐t ✐s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t t♦ ♠✐♥✐♠✐③❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡♠❡♥t ❡rr♦r ❛♥❞ ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥❡✐t②✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥

▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥

▼❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❝❧✐♠❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ✇❡❛t❤❡r ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❝♦♠❡ ✇✐❞❡s♣r❡❛❞ ✐♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ r❡s❡❛r❝❤❀ ❜♦t❤ ❛s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥str✉♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✳ ❉r♦✉❣❤t ✐s ♣r♦❜❛❜❧② t❤❡ ♠♦st ❞❡✈❛st❛t✐♥❣ t②♣❡ ♦❢ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ❤❛③❛r❞✳ P♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❣r♦✇t❤ ❛♥❞ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ✇❛r♠✐♥❣ ♠✐❣❤t ❧❡❛❞ t♦ ♠♦r❡ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ❞✐s❛st❡rs ✐♥ ♥❡❛r ❢✉t✉r❡✳ ■♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ st✉❞② t❤❡ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s ♦❢ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✱ ✐t ✐s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t t♦ ♠✐♥✐♠✐③❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡♠❡♥t ❡rr♦r ❛♥❞ ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥❡✐t②✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥ ▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥

▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥

▼❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❝❧✐♠❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ✇❡❛t❤❡r ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❝♦♠❡ ✇✐❞❡s♣r❡❛❞ ✐♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ r❡s❡❛r❝❤❀ ❜♦t❤ ❛s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ✐♥str✉♠❡♥t❛❧ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✳ ❉r♦✉❣❤t ✐s ♣r♦❜❛❜❧② t❤❡ ♠♦st ❞❡✈❛st❛t✐♥❣ t②♣❡ ♦❢ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ❤❛③❛r❞✳ P♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❣r♦✇t❤ ❛♥❞ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ✇❛r♠✐♥❣ ♠✐❣❤t ❧❡❛❞ t♦ ♠♦r❡ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ❞✐s❛st❡rs ✐♥ ♥❡❛r ❢✉t✉r❡✳ ■♥ ♦r❞❡r t♦ st✉❞② t❤❡ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s ♦❢ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✱ ✐t ✐s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t t♦ ♠✐♥✐♠✐③❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡♠❡♥t ❡rr♦r ❛♥❞ ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥❡✐t②✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t

▼❡t❡♦r♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✿ ❆♥ ❡①t❡♥❞❡❞ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ♦❢ t✐♠❡ ✇✐t❤♦✉t r❛✐♥❢❛❧❧✳ ❍②❞r♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✿ ▲❛❝❦ ♦❢ s✉r❢❛❝❡ ✇❛t❡r r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❧❛❝❦ ♦❢ r❛✐♥❢❛❧❧✳ ❆❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✿ ▲✐♥❦s ❞r②♥❡ss ✇✐t❤ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ✐♠♣❛❝ts✳ ❚❛❦❡s ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ♣r❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥ s❤♦rt❛❣❡s✱ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❛❝t✉❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❡✈❛♣♦tr❛♥s♣✐r❛t✐♦♥✱ s♦✐❧ ✇❛t❡r ❞❡✜❝✐ts✱ ❡t❝✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t

▼❡t❡♦r♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✿ ❆♥ ❡①t❡♥❞❡❞ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ♦❢ t✐♠❡ ✇✐t❤♦✉t r❛✐♥❢❛❧❧✳ ❍②❞r♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✿ ▲❛❝❦ ♦❢ s✉r❢❛❝❡ ✇❛t❡r r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❧❛❝❦ ♦❢ r❛✐♥❢❛❧❧✳ ❆❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✿ ▲✐♥❦s ❞r②♥❡ss ✇✐t❤ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ✐♠♣❛❝ts✳ ❚❛❦❡s ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ♣r❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥ s❤♦rt❛❣❡s✱ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❛❝t✉❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❡✈❛♣♦tr❛♥s♣✐r❛t✐♦♥✱ s♦✐❧ ✇❛t❡r ❞❡✜❝✐ts✱ ❡t❝✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t

▼❡t❡♦r♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✿ ❆♥ ❡①t❡♥❞❡❞ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ♦❢ t✐♠❡ ✇✐t❤♦✉t r❛✐♥❢❛❧❧✳ ❍②❞r♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✿ ▲❛❝❦ ♦❢ s✉r❢❛❝❡ ✇❛t❡r r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❧❛❝❦ ♦❢ r❛✐♥❢❛❧❧✳ ❆❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✿ ▲✐♥❦s ❞r②♥❡ss ✇✐t❤ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ✐♠♣❛❝ts✳ ❚❛❦❡s ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ♣r❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥ s❤♦rt❛❣❡s✱ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❛❝t✉❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❡✈❛♣♦tr❛♥s♣✐r❛t✐♦♥✱ s♦✐❧ ✇❛t❡r ❞❡✜❝✐ts✱ ❡t❝✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t

▼❡t❡♦r♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✿ ❆♥ ❡①t❡♥❞❡❞ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ♦❢ t✐♠❡ ✇✐t❤♦✉t r❛✐♥❢❛❧❧✳ ❍②❞r♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✿ ▲❛❝❦ ♦❢ s✉r❢❛❝❡ ✇❛t❡r r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❧❛❝❦ ♦❢ r❛✐♥❢❛❧❧✳ ❆❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✿ ▲✐♥❦s ❞r②♥❡ss ✇✐t❤ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ✐♠♣❛❝ts✳ ❚❛❦❡s ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ♣r❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥ s❤♦rt❛❣❡s✱ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❛❝t✉❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❡✈❛♣♦tr❛♥s♣✐r❛t✐♦♥✱ s♦✐❧ ✇❛t❡r ❞❡✜❝✐ts✱ ❡t❝✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

• ❧♦❜❛❧ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t

❚❤♦s❡ t❤❛t t❛❦❡ ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❢❛❝t♦rs t❤❛t ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡ t❤❡ ❣r♦✇t❤ ♦❢ ♣❧❛♥ts✿

❖❢t❡♥ ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜❛s❡❞✳ P❛❧♠❡r ❉r♦✉❣❤t ❙❡✈❡r✐t② ■♥❞❡① ✭P❉❙■✮✱ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡❞ Pr❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭❙P■✮✱ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡❞ Pr❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥✲❊✈❛♣♦tr❛♥s♣✐r❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭❙P❊■✮

❚❤♦s❡ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❞✐r❡❝t ♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♣❧❛♥t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✿

❖❢t❡♥ s❛t❡❧❧✐t❡ ❜❛s❡❞✳ ◆♦r♠❛❧✐③❡❞ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❱❡❣❡t❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭◆❉❱■✮ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

• ❧♦❜❛❧ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t

❚❤♦s❡ t❤❛t t❛❦❡ ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❢❛❝t♦rs t❤❛t ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡ t❤❡ ❣r♦✇t❤ ♦❢ ♣❧❛♥ts✿

❖❢t❡♥ ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜❛s❡❞✳ P❛❧♠❡r ❉r♦✉❣❤t ❙❡✈❡r✐t② ■♥❞❡① ✭P❉❙■✮✱ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡❞ Pr❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭❙P■✮✱ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡❞ Pr❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥✲❊✈❛♣♦tr❛♥s♣✐r❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭❙P❊■✮

❚❤♦s❡ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❞✐r❡❝t ♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♣❧❛♥t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✿

❖❢t❡♥ s❛t❡❧❧✐t❡ ❜❛s❡❞✳ ◆♦r♠❛❧✐③❡❞ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❱❡❣❡t❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭◆❉❱■✮ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

• ❧♦❜❛❧ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t

❚❤♦s❡ t❤❛t t❛❦❡ ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❢❛❝t♦rs t❤❛t ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡ t❤❡ ❣r♦✇t❤ ♦❢ ♣❧❛♥ts✿

❖❢t❡♥ ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜❛s❡❞✳ P❛❧♠❡r ❉r♦✉❣❤t ❙❡✈❡r✐t② ■♥❞❡① ✭P❉❙■✮✱ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡❞ Pr❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭❙P■✮✱ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡❞ Pr❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥✲❊✈❛♣♦tr❛♥s♣✐r❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭❙P❊■✮

❚❤♦s❡ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❞✐r❡❝t ♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♣❧❛♥t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✿

❖❢t❡♥ s❛t❡❧❧✐t❡ ❜❛s❡❞✳ ◆♦r♠❛❧✐③❡❞ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❱❡❣❡t❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭◆❉❱■✮ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

• ❧♦❜❛❧ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t

❚❤♦s❡ t❤❛t t❛❦❡ ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❢❛❝t♦rs t❤❛t ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡ t❤❡ ❣r♦✇t❤ ♦❢ ♣❧❛♥ts✿

❖❢t❡♥ ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜❛s❡❞✳ P❛❧♠❡r ❉r♦✉❣❤t ❙❡✈❡r✐t② ■♥❞❡① ✭P❉❙■✮✱ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡❞ Pr❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭❙P■✮✱ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡❞ Pr❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥✲❊✈❛♣♦tr❛♥s♣✐r❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭❙P❊■✮

❚❤♦s❡ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❞✐r❡❝t ♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♣❧❛♥t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✿

❖❢t❡♥ s❛t❡❧❧✐t❡ ❜❛s❡❞✳ ◆♦r♠❛❧✐③❡❞ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❱❡❣❡t❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭◆❉❱■✮ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

• ❧♦❜❛❧ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t

❚❤♦s❡ t❤❛t t❛❦❡ ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❢❛❝t♦rs t❤❛t ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡ t❤❡ ❣r♦✇t❤ ♦❢ ♣❧❛♥ts✿

❖❢t❡♥ ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜❛s❡❞✳ P❛❧♠❡r ❉r♦✉❣❤t ❙❡✈❡r✐t② ■♥❞❡① ✭P❉❙■✮✱ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡❞ Pr❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭❙P■✮✱ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡❞ Pr❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥✲❊✈❛♣♦tr❛♥s♣✐r❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭❙P❊■✮

❚❤♦s❡ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❞✐r❡❝t ♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♣❧❛♥t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✿

❖❢t❡♥ s❛t❡❧❧✐t❡ ❜❛s❡❞✳ ◆♦r♠❛❧✐③❡❞ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❱❡❣❡t❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭◆❉❱■✮ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

• ❧♦❜❛❧ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t

❚❤♦s❡ t❤❛t t❛❦❡ ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❢❛❝t♦rs t❤❛t ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡ t❤❡ ❣r♦✇t❤ ♦❢ ♣❧❛♥ts✿

❖❢t❡♥ ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜❛s❡❞✳ P❛❧♠❡r ❉r♦✉❣❤t ❙❡✈❡r✐t② ■♥❞❡① ✭P❉❙■✮✱ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡❞ Pr❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭❙P■✮✱ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡❞ Pr❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥✲❊✈❛♣♦tr❛♥s♣✐r❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭❙P❊■✮

❚❤♦s❡ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❞✐r❡❝t ♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♣❧❛♥t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✿

❖❢t❡♥ s❛t❡❧❧✐t❡ ❜❛s❡❞✳ ◆♦r♠❛❧✐③❡❞ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❱❡❣❡t❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭◆❉❱■✮ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

• ❧♦❜❛❧ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t

❚❤♦s❡ t❤❛t t❛❦❡ ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❢❛❝t♦rs t❤❛t ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡ t❤❡ ❣r♦✇t❤ ♦❢ ♣❧❛♥ts✿

❖❢t❡♥ ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜❛s❡❞✳ P❛❧♠❡r ❉r♦✉❣❤t ❙❡✈❡r✐t② ■♥❞❡① ✭P❉❙■✮✱ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡❞ Pr❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭❙P■✮✱ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡❞ Pr❡❝✐♣✐t❛t✐♦♥✲❊✈❛♣♦tr❛♥s♣✐r❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭❙P❊■✮

❚❤♦s❡ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❞✐r❡❝t ♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♣❧❛♥t ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✿

❖❢t❡♥ s❛t❡❧❧✐t❡ ❜❛s❡❞✳ ◆♦r♠❛❧✐③❡❞ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❱❡❣❡t❛t✐♦♥ ■♥❞❡① ✭◆❉❱■✮ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❙❤♦rt❝♦♠✐♥❣s ♦❢ ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜❛s❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s

• r♦✉♥❞ ❜❛s❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦♥❧② ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥

r❛✐♥❢❛❧❧ ❛♥❞ t❡♠♣❡r❛t✉r❡✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦❧♦r ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧❛♥❞ ✐s ♦♥❧② ♦❜s❡r✈❛❜❧❡ ❢r♦♠ ❛❜♦✈❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡ ♠✐❣❤t ❜❡ ✈❡r② ❢❛r ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♥❡❛r❡st ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ♣r♦❜❛❜❧② ❝♦rr❡❧❛t❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❝♦♠❡ ❧❡✈❡❧s ❛♥❞ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡♥s✐t②✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❙❤♦rt❝♦♠✐♥❣s ♦❢ ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜❛s❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s

• r♦✉♥❞ ❜❛s❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦♥❧② ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥

r❛✐♥❢❛❧❧ ❛♥❞ t❡♠♣❡r❛t✉r❡✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦❧♦r ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧❛♥❞ ✐s ♦♥❧② ♦❜s❡r✈❛❜❧❡ ❢r♦♠ ❛❜♦✈❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡ ♠✐❣❤t ❜❡ ✈❡r② ❢❛r ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♥❡❛r❡st ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ♣r♦❜❛❜❧② ❝♦rr❡❧❛t❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❝♦♠❡ ❧❡✈❡❧s ❛♥❞ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡♥s✐t②✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❙❤♦rt❝♦♠✐♥❣s ♦❢ ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜❛s❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s

• r♦✉♥❞ ❜❛s❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦♥❧② ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥

r❛✐♥❢❛❧❧ ❛♥❞ t❡♠♣❡r❛t✉r❡✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦❧♦r ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧❛♥❞ ✐s ♦♥❧② ♦❜s❡r✈❛❜❧❡ ❢r♦♠ ❛❜♦✈❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡ ♠✐❣❤t ❜❡ ✈❡r② ❢❛r ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♥❡❛r❡st ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ♣r♦❜❛❜❧② ❝♦rr❡❧❛t❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❝♦♠❡ ❧❡✈❡❧s ❛♥❞ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡♥s✐t②✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❙❤♦rt❝♦♠✐♥❣s ♦❢ ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜❛s❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s

• r♦✉♥❞ ❜❛s❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦♥❧② ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥

r❛✐♥❢❛❧❧ ❛♥❞ t❡♠♣❡r❛t✉r❡✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦❧♦r ♦❢ t❤❡ ❧❛♥❞ ✐s ♦♥❧② ♦❜s❡r✈❛❜❧❡ ❢r♦♠ ❛❜♦✈❡✳ ❚❤❡r❡ ♠✐❣❤t ❜❡ ✈❡r② ❢❛r ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❚❤❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ t♦ t❤❡ ♥❡❛r❡st ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ♣r♦❜❛❜❧② ❝♦rr❡❧❛t❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❝♦♠❡ ❧❡✈❡❧s ❛♥❞ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡♥s✐t②✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❙❤♦rt❝♦♠✐♥❣s ♦❢ ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s

❱❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ♠✐❣❤t ❜❡ ❝❛✉s❡❞ ❜② ♦t❤❡r ❢❛❝t♦rs t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❝❧✐♠❛t✐❝✿ ❉❡❢♦r❡st❛t✐♦♥ ❯r❜❛♥ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣♠❡♥t ❈❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ❝✉❧t✐✈❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✐rr✐❣❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛tt❡r♥s✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❙❤♦rt❝♦♠✐♥❣s ♦❢ ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s

❱❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ♠✐❣❤t ❜❡ ❝❛✉s❡❞ ❜② ♦t❤❡r ❢❛❝t♦rs t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❝❧✐♠❛t✐❝✿ ❉❡❢♦r❡st❛t✐♦♥ ❯r❜❛♥ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣♠❡♥t ❈❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ❝✉❧t✐✈❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✐rr✐❣❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛tt❡r♥s✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❙❤♦rt❝♦♠✐♥❣s ♦❢ ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s

❱❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ♠✐❣❤t ❜❡ ❝❛✉s❡❞ ❜② ♦t❤❡r ❢❛❝t♦rs t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❝❧✐♠❛t✐❝✿ ❉❡❢♦r❡st❛t✐♦♥ ❯r❜❛♥ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣♠❡♥t ❈❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ❝✉❧t✐✈❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✐rr✐❣❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛tt❡r♥s✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❙❤♦rt❝♦♠✐♥❣s ♦❢ ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s

❱❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ♠✐❣❤t ❜❡ ❝❛✉s❡❞ ❜② ♦t❤❡r ❢❛❝t♦rs t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ❝❧✐♠❛t✐❝✿ ❉❡❢♦r❡st❛t✐♦♥ ❯r❜❛♥ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣♠❡♥t ❈❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ❝✉❧t✐✈❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✐rr✐❣❛t✐♦♥ ♣❛tt❡r♥s✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❙♦❧✉t✐♦♥✿ Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s

❇② t❤❡ ✉s❡ ♦❢ s❛t❡❧❧✐t❡ ❞❛t❛✱ ✇❡ ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ✲ ❣❧♦❜❛❧❧② ✲ ❜♦t❤ t❤❡ ♦✉t❝♦♠❡ ♦❢ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛♥ts ♦❢ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✳ ❚❤✐s ❛❧❧♦✇s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✇❤❡r❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✐♥ r❛✐♥❢❛❧❧ ❛♥❞ t❡♠♣❡r❛t✉r❡s ✭✇✐t❤ ✉♣ t♦ ✻ ❧❛❣s✮ ❛r❡ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ♣r❡❞✐❝t ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳ ❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧t ✐s ❛♥ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ✐♥❞❡① t❤❛t t❛❦❡s ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❜♦t❤ ✐♥♣✉t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✇❤✐❧❡ ✜❧t❡r✐♥❣ ♦✉t ❛❧❧ ❛♥t❤r♦♣♦❣❡♥✐❝ ❝❛✉s❡s ♦❢ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❙♦❧✉t✐♦♥✿ Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s

❇② t❤❡ ✉s❡ ♦❢ s❛t❡❧❧✐t❡ ❞❛t❛✱ ✇❡ ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ✲ ❣❧♦❜❛❧❧② ✲ ❜♦t❤ t❤❡ ♦✉t❝♦♠❡ ♦❢ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛♥ts ♦❢ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✳ ❚❤✐s ❛❧❧♦✇s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✇❤❡r❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✐♥ r❛✐♥❢❛❧❧ ❛♥❞ t❡♠♣❡r❛t✉r❡s ✭✇✐t❤ ✉♣ t♦ ✻ ❧❛❣s✮ ❛r❡ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ♣r❡❞✐❝t ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳ ❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧t ✐s ❛♥ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ✐♥❞❡① t❤❛t t❛❦❡s ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❜♦t❤ ✐♥♣✉t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✇❤✐❧❡ ✜❧t❡r✐♥❣ ♦✉t ❛❧❧ ❛♥t❤r♦♣♦❣❡♥✐❝ ❝❛✉s❡s ♦❢ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❙♦❧✉t✐♦♥✿ Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s

❇② t❤❡ ✉s❡ ♦❢ s❛t❡❧❧✐t❡ ❞❛t❛✱ ✇❡ ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ✲ ❣❧♦❜❛❧❧② ✲ ❜♦t❤ t❤❡ ♦✉t❝♦♠❡ ♦❢ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛♥ts ♦❢ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✳ ❚❤✐s ❛❧❧♦✇s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✇❤❡r❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✐♥ r❛✐♥❢❛❧❧ ❛♥❞ t❡♠♣❡r❛t✉r❡s ✭✇✐t❤ ✉♣ t♦ ✻ ❧❛❣s✮ ❛r❡ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ♣r❡❞✐❝t ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳ ❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧t ✐s ❛♥ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ✐♥❞❡① t❤❛t t❛❦❡s ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❜♦t❤ ✐♥♣✉t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✇❤✐❧❡ ✜❧t❡r✐♥❣ ♦✉t ❛❧❧ ❛♥t❤r♦♣♦❣❡♥✐❝ ❝❛✉s❡s ♦❢ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❙♦❧✉t✐♦♥✿ Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s

❇② t❤❡ ✉s❡ ♦❢ s❛t❡❧❧✐t❡ ❞❛t❛✱ ✇❡ ❛r❡ ❛❜❧❡ t♦ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ✲ ❣❧♦❜❛❧❧② ✲ ❜♦t❤ t❤❡ ♦✉t❝♦♠❡ ♦❢ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛♥ts ♦❢ ❞r♦✉❣❤t✳ ❚❤✐s ❛❧❧♦✇s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✇❤❡r❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✐♥ r❛✐♥❢❛❧❧ ❛♥❞ t❡♠♣❡r❛t✉r❡s ✭✇✐t❤ ✉♣ t♦ ✻ ❧❛❣s✮ ❛r❡ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ♣r❡❞✐❝t ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s✳ ❚❤❡ r❡s✉❧t ✐s ❛♥ ❛❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ✐♥❞❡① t❤❛t t❛❦❡s ✐♥t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❜♦t❤ ✐♥♣✉t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛♥❞ ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✇❤✐❧❡ ✜❧t❡r✐♥❣ ♦✉t ❛❧❧ ❛♥t❤r♦♣♦❣❡♥✐❝ ❝❛✉s❡s ♦❢ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❉❛t❛✿ ❘❛✐♥❢❛❧❧

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❉❛t❛✿ ❉❛②t✐♠❡ t❡♠♣❡r❛t✉r❡s

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❉❛t❛✿ ❚❡♠♣❡r❛t✉r❡s ❛t ♥✐❣❤t

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❉❛t❛✿ ◆❉❱■

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❍♦✇ ✐s t❤❡ ❞❛t❛ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡❞❄

✶✿ ❖▲❙✿ ✷✿ ❖▲❙ ✇✐t❤ ❝❧✐♠❛t❡ ③♦♥❡ ✐♥t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥✿ ✸✿ ❘❛♥❞♦♠ ❢♦r❡st

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❍♦✇ ✐s t❤❡ ❞❛t❛ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡❞❄

✶✿ ❖▲❙✿

¨ NDV Iitm,OLS = γ0 +

6

• n=0
• γ1n ¨

Pit,m−n + γ2n ¨ Thit,m−n

• + δt + ǫitm

(3)

✷✿ ❖▲❙ ✇✐t❤ ❝❧✐♠❛t❡ ③♦♥❡ ✐♥t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥✿ ✸✿ ❘❛♥❞♦♠ ❢♦r❡st

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❍♦✇ ✐s t❤❡ ❞❛t❛ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡❞❄

✶✿ ❖▲❙✿

¨ NDV Iitm,OLS = γ0 +

6

• n=0
• γ1n ¨

Pit,m−n + γ2n ¨ Thit,m−n

• + δt + ǫitm

(3)

✷✿ ❖▲❙ ✇✐t❤ ❝❧✐♠❛t❡ ③♦♥❡ ✐♥t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥✿

¨ NDV Iitm,i = γ0 +

6

• n=0
• γ1n ¨

Pit,m−n + γ2n ¨ Thit,m−n + γ3n ¨ Pit,m−n ∗ Ci +γ4n ¨ Thit,m−n ∗ Ci

• + δt + ǫitm

(4)

✸✿ ❘❛♥❞♦♠ ❢♦r❡st

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❍♦✇ ✐s t❤❡ ❞❛t❛ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡❞❄

✶✿ ❖▲❙✿

¨ NDV Iitm,OLS = γ0 +

6

• n=0
• γ1n ¨

Pit,m−n + γ2n ¨ Thit,m−n

• + δt + ǫitm

(3)

✷✿ ❖▲❙ ✇✐t❤ ❝❧✐♠❛t❡ ③♦♥❡ ✐♥t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥✿

¨ NDV Iitm,i = γ0 +

6

• n=0
• γ1n ¨

Pit,m−n + γ2n ¨ Thit,m−n + γ3n ¨ Pit,m−n ∗ Ci +γ4n ¨ Thit,m−n ∗ Ci

• + δt + ǫitm

(4)

✸✿ ❘❛♥❞♦♠ ❢♦r❡st

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✲ ❖r❞✐♥❛r② ▲❡❛st ❙q✉❛r❡s

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✐♥ ✷✵✶✵ ✲ ❖r❞✐♥❛r② ▲❡❛st ❙q✉❛r❡s

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✲ ❖▲❙ ✇✐t❤ ❝❧✐♠❛t❡ ③♦♥❡s

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✐♥ ✷✵✶✵ ✲ ❖▲❙ ✇✐t❤ ❝❧✐♠❛t❡ ③♦♥❡s

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✲ ❘❛♥❞♦♠ ❋♦r❡st

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✐♥ ✷✵✶✵ ✲ ❘❛♥❞♦♠ ❋♦r❡st

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

✻✲♠♦♥t❤ ❙P❊■ ✐♥ ✷✵✶✵

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❊✈❛❧✉❛t✐♥❣ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s

❆r❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❜❡tt❡r t❤❛♥ ❡①✐st✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s❄ ❚❡st✐♥❣ ❢♦r ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s ■❞❡♥t✐❢②✐♥❣ s❡❧❢✲r❡♣♦rt❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤ts ❆ss❡ss✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❊✈❛❧✉❛t✐♥❣ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s

❆r❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❜❡tt❡r t❤❛♥ ❡①✐st✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s❄ ❚❡st✐♥❣ ❢♦r ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s ■❞❡♥t✐❢②✐♥❣ s❡❧❢✲r❡♣♦rt❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤ts ❆ss❡ss✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❊✈❛❧✉❛t✐♥❣ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s

❆r❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❜❡tt❡r t❤❛♥ ❡①✐st✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s❄ ❚❡st✐♥❣ ❢♦r ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s ■❞❡♥t✐❢②✐♥❣ s❡❧❢✲r❡♣♦rt❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤ts ❆ss❡ss✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❊✈❛❧✉❛t✐♥❣ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s

❆r❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❜❡tt❡r t❤❛♥ ❡①✐st✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s❄ ❚❡st✐♥❣ ❢♦r ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s ■❞❡♥t✐❢②✐♥❣ s❡❧❢✲r❡♣♦rt❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤ts ❆ss❡ss✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❉✐st❛♥❝❡ t♦ ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥s

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❲❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥ ❜✐❛s

Table 3: Correlations between 6-month SPEI and predicted greenness

(1) (2) (3) (4)

• ¨

NDV I − olsitm 0.414*** (0.000)

• ¨

NDV I − ols, citm 0.298*** (0.000)

• ¨

NDV I − RF itm 0.274*** (0.000) ¨ NDV I 0.196*** (0.000) Dist ∗

• ¨

NDV I − olsitm

• 0.069***

(0.000) Dist ∗

• ¨

NDV I − ols, citm

• 0.010***

(0.000) Dist ∗

• ¨

NDV I − RF itm

• 0.005***

(0.000) Dist ∗ ¨ NDV I

• 0.010***

(0.000) Observations 19,846,352 19,844,720 17,102,495 21,287,733 R-squared 0.117 0.085 0.072 0.026

Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. All drought indices are standardized to mean 0 and s.d. 1. Distance is measured in 100 kms.

since it is the model that lies closest to the definition of the SPEI index and P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

■❞❡♥t✐❢②✐♥❣ s❡❧❢✲r❡♣♦rt❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤ts

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

■❞❡♥t✐❢②✐♥❣ s❡❧❢✲r❡♣♦rt❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤ts

Table 5: Correlation between drought indices and self-reported droughts

Drought SPEI 06

• ¨

NDV IOLS

• ¨

NDV IOLS,c

• ¨

NDV IRF SPEI 06

• 0.017

1

• ¨

NDV IOLS

• 0.024

0.359 1

• ¨

NDV IOLS,c

• 0.031

0.307 0.775 1

• ¨

NDV IRF

• 0.030

0.294 0.638 0.785 1 ¨ NDV I

• 0.021

0.193 0.434 0.564 0.713

All drought indices are standardized to mean 0 and s.d. 1. For this analysis, the pixel-level data has been collapsed to second-level administrative units resulting in 3.3m observations (distrivt-months). In order to give larger weight to larger land areas, the correlation coefficients are weighted by the size of each unit.

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❊✛❡❝t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②

❚❤❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❡✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t② ✐s t②♣✐❝❛❧❧② st✉❞✐❡❞ ❛t t❤❡ ♠❛❝r♦ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦r t❤❡ ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞ ❧❡✈❡❧✳ ❚❤✐s ✐s ❛♥ ❛tt❡♠♣t t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ❛t t❤❡ ♣✐①❡❧ ❧❡✈❡❧✳ ❆s ❛ ✈❛❧✐❞ ❛♥❞ r❡❧✐❛❜❧❡ ♣r♦①② ❢♦r ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②✱ ■ ✉s❡ ②❡❛r✲♦♥✲②❡❛r ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ❧✐❣❤ts ❛t ♥✐❣❤t✳ Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛r❡ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡❞ t♦ ②❡❛r❧② ❛✈❡r❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ s✉❜s❡q✉❡♥t❧② ✉s❡❞ t♦ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ❧✐❣❤ts ❛t ♥✐❣❤t✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❊✛❡❝t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②

❚❤❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❡✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t② ✐s t②♣✐❝❛❧❧② st✉❞✐❡❞ ❛t t❤❡ ♠❛❝r♦ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦r t❤❡ ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞ ❧❡✈❡❧✳ ❚❤✐s ✐s ❛♥ ❛tt❡♠♣t t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ❛t t❤❡ ♣✐①❡❧ ❧❡✈❡❧✳ ❆s ❛ ✈❛❧✐❞ ❛♥❞ r❡❧✐❛❜❧❡ ♣r♦①② ❢♦r ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②✱ ■ ✉s❡ ②❡❛r✲♦♥✲②❡❛r ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ❧✐❣❤ts ❛t ♥✐❣❤t✳ Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛r❡ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡❞ t♦ ②❡❛r❧② ❛✈❡r❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ s✉❜s❡q✉❡♥t❧② ✉s❡❞ t♦ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ❧✐❣❤ts ❛t ♥✐❣❤t✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❊✛❡❝t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②

❚❤❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❡✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t② ✐s t②♣✐❝❛❧❧② st✉❞✐❡❞ ❛t t❤❡ ♠❛❝r♦ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦r t❤❡ ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞ ❧❡✈❡❧✳ ❚❤✐s ✐s ❛♥ ❛tt❡♠♣t t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ❛t t❤❡ ♣✐①❡❧ ❧❡✈❡❧✳ ❆s ❛ ✈❛❧✐❞ ❛♥❞ r❡❧✐❛❜❧❡ ♣r♦①② ❢♦r ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②✱ ■ ✉s❡ ②❡❛r✲♦♥✲②❡❛r ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ❧✐❣❤ts ❛t ♥✐❣❤t✳ Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛r❡ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡❞ t♦ ②❡❛r❧② ❛✈❡r❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ s✉❜s❡q✉❡♥t❧② ✉s❡❞ t♦ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ❧✐❣❤ts ❛t ♥✐❣❤t✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❊✛❡❝t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②

❚❤❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❡✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t② ✐s t②♣✐❝❛❧❧② st✉❞✐❡❞ ❛t t❤❡ ♠❛❝r♦ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦r t❤❡ ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞ ❧❡✈❡❧✳ ❚❤✐s ✐s ❛♥ ❛tt❡♠♣t t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ❛t t❤❡ ♣✐①❡❧ ❧❡✈❡❧✳ ❆s ❛ ✈❛❧✐❞ ❛♥❞ r❡❧✐❛❜❧❡ ♣r♦①② ❢♦r ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②✱ ■ ✉s❡ ②❡❛r✲♦♥✲②❡❛r ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ❧✐❣❤ts ❛t ♥✐❣❤t✳ Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ❛r❡ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡❞ t♦ ②❡❛r❧② ❛✈❡r❛❣❡s ❛♥❞ s✉❜s❡q✉❡♥t❧② ✉s❡❞ t♦ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧ ❧✐❣❤ts ❛t ♥✐❣❤t✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❊✛❡❝t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❊✛❡❝t ♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②

Table 6: Changes in luminosity and predicted greenness

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

• ¨

NDV I 0.39***

• 0.07***
• 0.07***

(0.02) (0.02) (0.02) W ∗ ¨ NDV I 0.79*** 0.81*** (0.05) (0.05) SPEI 06 0.07***

• 0.06**
• 0.08**

(0.01) (0.03) (0.03) W ∗ SPEI 06 0.17*** 0.23*** (0.03) (0.04) Country dummies No No Yes No No Yes Observations 1.83m 1.83m 1.83m 1.65m 1.65m 1.65m R-squared 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.002

Dependent variable: year-on-year changes in luminosity as measured by the share

• f pixels lit within each unit of observation (in percent). Standard errors clustered

at second sub-national level administrative units in parentheses.

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

P♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❝❛✈❡❛ts ♦❢ ❡①✐st✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❡♥ ❤✐❣❤❧✐❣❤t❡❞✳ ❆♥ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❡ ✲ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✲ ❤❛s ❜❡❡♥ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❡❞✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ✉♥❛✛❡❝t❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ t♦ ♥❡❛r❡st ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥✳ Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s s❡❡♠ t♦ ♦✉t♣❡r❢♦r♠ ♦t❤❡r ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ✐♥ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♥❣ s❡❧❢✲r❡♣♦rt❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤ts ❛s ✇❡❧❧ ❛s ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t② ❛t t❤❡ ♣✐①❡❧ ❧❡✈❡❧✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

P♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❝❛✈❡❛ts ♦❢ ❡①✐st✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❡♥ ❤✐❣❤❧✐❣❤t❡❞✳ ❆♥ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❡ ✲ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✲ ❤❛s ❜❡❡♥ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❡❞✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ✉♥❛✛❡❝t❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ t♦ ♥❡❛r❡st ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥✳ Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s s❡❡♠ t♦ ♦✉t♣❡r❢♦r♠ ♦t❤❡r ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ✐♥ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♥❣ s❡❧❢✲r❡♣♦rt❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤ts ❛s ✇❡❧❧ ❛s ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t② ❛t t❤❡ ♣✐①❡❧ ❧❡✈❡❧✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

P♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❝❛✈❡❛ts ♦❢ ❡①✐st✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❡♥ ❤✐❣❤❧✐❣❤t❡❞✳ ❆♥ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❡ ✲ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✲ ❤❛s ❜❡❡♥ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❡❞✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ✉♥❛✛❡❝t❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ t♦ ♥❡❛r❡st ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥✳ Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s s❡❡♠ t♦ ♦✉t♣❡r❢♦r♠ ♦t❤❡r ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ✐♥ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♥❣ s❡❧❢✲r❡♣♦rt❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤ts ❛s ✇❡❧❧ ❛s ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t② ❛t t❤❡ ♣✐①❡❧ ❧❡✈❡❧✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❉❛t❛ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❱❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

P♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❝❛✈❡❛ts ♦❢ ❡①✐st✐♥❣ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❡♥ ❤✐❣❤❧✐❣❤t❡❞✳ ❆♥ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❡ ✲ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s ✲ ❤❛s ❜❡❡♥ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❡❞✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ✉♥❛✛❡❝t❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ t♦ ♥❡❛r❡st ✇❡❛t❤❡r st❛t✐♦♥✳ Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ❣r❡❡♥♥❡ss ❛♥♦♠❛❧✐❡s s❡❡♠ t♦ ♦✉t♣❡r❢♦r♠ ♦t❤❡r ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ❞r♦✉❣❤t ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ✐♥ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♥❣ s❡❧❢✲r❡♣♦rt❡❞ ❞r♦✉❣❤ts ❛s ✇❡❧❧ ❛s ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝t✐✈✐t② ❛t t❤❡ ♣✐①❡❧ ❧❡✈❡❧✳

P❡t❡r ❑✐❡❧❜❡r❣ ❋✐s❦❡r Pr❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ●r❡❡♥♥❡ss✿