POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: GOAL Our goal: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: GOAL Our goal: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 18, 2023 230 likes •416 views

POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: GOAL Our goal: Understand tradeoffs Agricultural/ among agricultural/silvicultural Silvicultural Economy economy , water quantity , and water quality for different cropping and forestry systems,

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SLIDE 1

Agricultural/ Silvicultural Economy

Water Quantity Water Quality

POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: GOAL

Our goal: Understand tradeoffs among agricultural/silvicultural economy, water quantity, and water quality for different cropping and forestry systems,

  • ver a range of management

practices, soils, and weather conditions.

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SLIDE 2

POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: SCALES

Production and Profit Water Use

  • r Yield

Nutrients Leached

Farm and Forest Scale

Regional Economy

Aquifer Levels and Streamflows

Aquifer and Stream H2O Quality

Watershed Scale

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SLIDE 3

POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: OUTPUTS

Profit Water Used N L e a che d

Farm and Forest Scale

Profit Water Used N L e a che d

Regional Economy Aquifer Levels/Flows

Watershed Scale

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SLIDE 4

Cropping/forest systems (e.g. corn-fallow-peanut; slash pine plantation) Soil types 30-50 year weather record

?

Profit Water Used N Leached

Management systems (e.g. practices used for nutrient management, water management)

POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: PLATFORM

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SLIDE 5

Irrigation (vol, #apps) Fertilizer (rate, #apps) Soil/Crop parameters Planting density Management actions Biophysical Models Leached N distribution Pumped water distribution Leached water distribution

POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: PLATFORM

Cropping/forest systems (e.g. corn-fallow-peanut; slash pine plantation) Soil types 30-50 year weather record Management systems (e.g. practices used for nutrient management, water management)

Farm and Forest Scale

Yield distributions

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SLIDE 6

Economic Model Enterprise budgets Profit distribution Price distribution Yield distributions Leached N distribution Pumped water distribution Leached water distribution Biophysical Models

POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: PLATFORM

Soil types 30-50 year weather record Management systems (e.g. practices used for nutrient management, water management)

Farm and Forest Scale

Cropping/forest systems (e.g. corn-fallow-peanut; slash pine plantation) Irrigation (vol, #apps) Fertilizer (rate, #apps) Soil/Crop parameters Planting density Management actions

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SLIDE 7

Economic Model Enterprise budgets Price distribution Biophysical Models

POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: PLATFORM

Soil types 30-50 year weather record Management systems (e.g. practices used for nutrient management, water management)

Farm and Forest Scale

Cropping/forest systems (e.g. corn-fallow-peanut; slash pine plantation)

Profit Water Used N Lea c h ed

Irrigation (vol, #apps) Fertilizer (rate, #apps) Soil/Crop parameters Planting density Management actions Yield distributions Profit distribution Leached N distribution Pumped water distribution Leached water distribution

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SLIDE 8

Regional crop and forest production Biophysical Models

POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: PLATFORM

Soil types Weather/climate data and scenarios Management systems (e.g. practices used for nutrient management, water management)

Watershed Scale

Cropping/forest systems (e.g. corn-fallow-peanut; slash pine plantation) Aquifer/stream N concentrations Spring and streamflows Aquifer water levels Irrigation (vol, #apps) Fertilizer (rate, #apps) Soil/Crop parameters Planting density Management actions

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SLIDE 9

Biophysical Models

POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: PLATFORM

Soil types Irrigation (vol, #apps) Fertilizer (rate, #apps) Soil/Crop parameters Planting density Management actions

Watershed Scale

Economic Model Enterprise budgets Regional Economy Management systems (e.g. practices used for nutrient management, water management) Aquifer/stream N concentrations Spring and streamflows Aquifer water levels Regional crop and forest production Cropping/forest systems (e.g. corn-fallow-peanut; slash pine plantation) Weather/climate data and scenarios

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SLIDE 10

POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: PLATFORM

Soil types

Watershed Scale

Economic Model Enterprise budgets Regional Economy Management systems (e.g. practices used for nutrient management, water management) Regional crop and forest production Cropping/forest systems (e.g. corn-fallow-peanut; slash pine plantation) Biophysical Models Aquifer/stream N concentrations Spring and streamflows Aquifer water levels Irrigation (vol, #apps) Fertilizer (rate, #apps) Soil/Crop parameters Planting density Management actions

Profit Water Used N Leached

Regional Economy Aquifer Levels/Flows Aquifer/Stream Water Quality

Weather/climate data and scenarios

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SLIDE 11

POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: WTA & WTP*

Profit Water Used N L e a ched Profit Water Used N L eac h e d

Regional Economy Aquifer Levels/Flows Aquifer/Stream Water Quality

+

Incentive program design Value of meeting environmental goals

*Willingness-to-pay and willingness-to-accept

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SLIDE 12

Agricultural/ Silvicultural Economy

Water Quantity Water Quality

POST 1 - Biophysical & Economic Modeling: GOAL

Our goal: Understand tradeoffs among agricultural/silvicultural economy, water quantity, and water quality for different cropping and forestry systems,

  • ver a range of management

practices, soils, and weather conditions.

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SLIDE 13

Farm/Forest Biophysical Models, Cropping Systems & Practices

  • Farm-scale (DSSAT, SWAT)
  • corn, peanut, cotton, carrot, hay, grazed pasture
  • PMP defined 3 levels of current practices
  • Nutrient Management
  • Irrigation Management
  • Winter cover crops, conservation/strip tillage, buffers/setbacks
  • Conversion to less intensive rotational production systems
  • Conversion to silviculture
  • Forest-scale (3PG, SWAT)
  • Slash, Loblolly, Longleaf
  • PMP defined 3 levels of current practices
  • Nutrient management
  • Stand Structure Management
  • Understory management
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SLIDE 14

Farm/Forest-Scale Economic Modeling

  • Land uses/enterprises: corn, peanut, cotton,

carrot, hay, grazed pasture, pine forest

  • Enterprise budgets estimate expected costs &

returns at 3 levels of production practices.

  • Risk for each scenario is modeled considering

variability in yields and input/output prices.

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SLIDE 15

Watershed-scale modeling (Regional modeling)

Main goal

Quantify regional impacts on groundwater, river water, and spring water’s quantity and quality due to:

  • Alternate land use
  • Cropping systems
  • BMP scenarios
  • Climate impacts

Coupled Surface and Groundwater Model Ritesh Karki Patricia Spellman Rob de de Rooij

SFRB Coupled SWAT-MODFLOW SFRB DisCO Model LFRB Coupled SWAT-MODFLOW

Source: SWAT-MODFLOW Documentation

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SLIDE 16

Regional-economic im impacts modeling of f BMP adoption and la land use ch change

  • Input
  • Expenditure estimates from enterprise-level analysis and land use modeling
  • Model
  • Input-Output model
  • Method
  • Using IMPLAN software to track the impact of expenditures
  • Results
  • Direct, indirect and induced impacts in terms of total output, value-added,

employment, labor income, and federal and state tax benefits

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SLIDE 17
  • Willingness to Accept (WTA)
  • Hypothetical descriptions of incentive programs
  • Program’s attributes and levels
  • Survey (n=~600)
  • Analyzed using best-worst choice modeling
  • Supply curve to access the level of BMP adoption or land use change under

various level of incentive payments

  • Willingness to Pay (WTP)
  • Similar design as WTA
  • Survey (n=~2000)
  • Best-worst choice modeling
  • Demand curve to access the perceived value of meeting environmental goals to

society

Willingness to Accept (WTA) and Willingness to Pay (WTP) for BMP adoption and land use change

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SLIDE 18

Land Use Change Modeling

  • 1. Determine optimal allocation of land parcels based on

economic drivers (i.e., profit maximization).

  • 2. Examine the impact of government policies on land use

and adoption of different BMPs at the watershed level.

  • 3. Combine land allocation with SWAT and IMPLAN to

analyze changes in nitrate levels and economic impacts, respectively.

Study Area

IMPLAN SWAT LUC

Puneet Dwivedi Ranjit Bawa

Synergetic Task People Objectives

Profit Water Used N Leached

Regional Economy Aquifer Levels/Flows Aquifer/Stream Water Quality