PHILLIPS 66 THIRD QUARTER CONFERENCE CALL
October 29, 2014
PHILLIPS 66 THIRD QUARTER CONFERENCE CALL October 29, 2014 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
PHILLIPS 66 THIRD QUARTER CONFERENCE CALL October 29, 2014 CAUTIONARY STATEMENT This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the
October 29, 2014
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. Words and phrases such as “is anticipated,” “is estimated,” “is expected,” “is planned,” “is scheduled,” “is targeted,” “believes,” “intends,” “objectives,” “projects,” “strategies” and similar expressions are used to identify such forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements relating to Phillips 66’s operations (including joint venture operations) are based on management’s expectations, estimates and projections about the company, its interests and the energy industry in general on the date this presentation was prepared. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking
fluctuations in crude oil, NGL, and natural gas prices, and refining and petrochemical margins; unexpected changes in costs for constructing, modifying
reliable transportation for our crude oil, natural gas, NGL, and refined products; potential liability from litigation or for remedial actions, including removal and reclamation obligations, under environmental regulations; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting Phillips 66’s businesses generally as set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Phillips 66 is under no obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or
This presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures at the end of the presentation materials or in the “Investors” section of our website.
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Adjusted Earnings: Adjusted EPS: Operating cash flow excluding working capital: Capital expenditures and investments: Shareholder distributions: Debt-to-Capital ratio: Annualized adjusted YTD ROCE: $1.1 B $2.02 $1.3 B $1.5 B $771 MM 22% 14%
Shareholder distributions include dividends and share repurchases
863 1,140 7 (25) 168 97 30 2Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing & Specialties Corporate & Other 3Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
3Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
$MM
115 (91) 558 299 259
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108 115 (2) (2) 11 2Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings Transportation DCP Midstream NGL 3Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
$MM
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324 299 (51) 25 1 2Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings Olefins & Polyolefins Specialties, Aromatics & Styrenics Other 3Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
$MM
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390 558 135 (75) 71 (68) 105 2Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings Atlantic Basin / Europe Gulf Coast Central Corridor Western / Pacific Other Refining 3Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
$MM
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14.85 10.89 (2.17) (5.07) 2.30 0.98 Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products Feedstock Other Realized Margin
WORLDWIDE REFINING $/BBL
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16% 18% 18% 18% 7% 10% 12% 12% 26% 27% 24% 22% 3% 7% 14% 17% 6% 24% 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 17% 18% 19% 17% 13% 12% 12% 11% 25% 24% 22% 22% 15% 15% 17% 19% 24% 22% 23% 26% Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
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QUARTERLY
* Includes Shale Oil, Rocky Mountain Sweet (Casper, Wyoming), Mississippian Lime (Oklahoma) and Granite Wash (Texas Panhandle)
Other Light/Medium Tight Oil* Other Heavy Canadian Heavy WTI Based
Total 94% 91% 93% 95% 52% 62% 74% 93% Total
ANNUAL
Other Light/Medium Tight Oil* Other Heavy Canadian Heavy WTI Based
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162 259 97 2Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings Marketing & Other Specialties 3Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
$MM
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(121) (91) 3 12 15 2Q 2014 Adjusted Net Loss Net Interest Expense Corporate Overhead Other 3Q 2014 Adjusted Net Loss
$MM
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5.0 3.1 1.3 (0.8) (0.7) (0.8) (0.3) (0.5) (0.1)
June 30 Cash Balance* CFO (excluding working capital) Working Capital Acquisitions Other Capital Expenditures & Investments Dividends Share Repurchases Other September 30 Cash Balance*
$B
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* Includes cash and cash equivalents
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Sensitivities shown above are independent and are only valid within a limited price range
Midstream
1¢/Gal Increase in NGL price 4 10¢/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price 2 $1/BBL Increase in WTI price 2
Chemicals
1¢/Lb Increase in Chain Margin (Ethylene, Polyethylene, NAO) 35
Worldwide Refining (assuming 94% refining utilization)
$1/BBL Increase in Refining Margin 440 $1/BBL Widening LLS / Maya Differential (LLS less Maya) 50 $1/BBL Widening WTI / WCS Differential (WTI less WCS) 40 $1/BBL Widening WTI / WTS Differential (WTI less WTS) 15 $1/BBL Widening LLS / WCS Differential (LLS less WCS) 10 $1/BBL Widening ANS / WCS Differential (ANS less WCS) 10 10¢/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price (10) Impacts due to Actual Crude Feedstock Differing from Feedstock Assumed in Market Indicators:
Annual Net Income $MM
15.84 9.99 (2.58) (2.63) (1.98) 1.34 Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products Feedstock Other Realized Margin
ATLANTIC BASIN / EUROPE $/BBL
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Market 3:2:1 – Dated Brent / Gasoline 83.7 RBOB NYH / Diesel 15ppm NYH Brent: $101.85/BBL 92% Crude Capacity Utilization 63% Market Capture
11.11 6.80 (1.81) (5.92) 1.49 1.93 Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products Feedstock Other Realized Margin
GULF COAST $/BBL
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Market 3:2:1 – LLS / Gasoline 85 CBOB / Diesel 61 8ppm LLS: $100.95/BBL 97% Crude Capacity Utilization 61% Market Capture
16.65 16.87 (1.25) (5.41) 7.11 (0.23) Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products Feedstock Other Realized Margin
CENTRAL CORRIDOR $/BBL
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Market 3:2:1 – WTI / Gasoline Unl Sub Octane Group 3 / ULSD Group 3 WTI: $97.48/BBL 98% Crude Capacity Utilization 101% Market Capture
17.79 8.71 (2.69) (6.71) 4.17 (3.85) Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products Feedstock Other Realized Margin
WESTERN / PACIFIC $/BBL
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Market 3:2:1 – ANS Spot / Los Angeles CARBOB / Los Angeles No. 2 CARB ANS: $101.51/BBL 89% Crude Capacity Utilization 49% Market Capture
521 1,140 (32) 37 588 4 22 3Q 2013 Adjusted Earnings Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing & Specialties Corporate & Other 3Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
3Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
$MM
115 (91) 558 299 259
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147 115 4 (56) 20 3Q 2013 Adjusted Earnings Transportation DCP Midstream NGL 3Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
$MM
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262 299 25 12 3Q 2013 Adjusted Earnings Olefins & Polyolefins Specialties, Aromatics & Styrenics Other 3Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
$MM
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(30) 558 78 122 181 91 116 3Q 2013 Adjusted Earnings Atlantic Basin / Europe Gulf Coast Central Corridor Western / Pacific Other Refining 3Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
$MM
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255 259 17 (13) 3Q 2013 Adjusted Earnings Marketing & Other Specialties 3Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
$MM
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(113) (91) 5 (2) 19 3Q 2013 Adjusted Net Loss Net Interest Expense Corporate Overhead Other 3Q 2014 Adjusted Net Loss
$MM
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21.4 21.7 22.0 22.4 21.8 22.0 22.2 7.0 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 25% 23% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Q 2013 4Q 2013 1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014
Equity $B Debt $B Debt to Capital 20% - 30%
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Sep YTD 3Q 2Q Sep YTD 3Q Phillips 66 Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 3,615 $ 1,180 $ 863 $ 2,900 $ 535 $ Adjustments: Net (gain) loss on asset sales (109) (109)
69 69
(706)
(14) Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 2,869 $ 1,140 $ 863 $ 2,835 $ 521 $ Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 Per Share of Common Stock (dollars) 6.28 $ 2.09 $ 1.51 $ 4.65 $ 0.87 $ Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 Per Share of Common Stock (dollars) 4.98 $ 2.02 $ 1.51 $ 4.54 $ 0.85 $ Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2013 2014
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Sep YTD 3Q 2Q Sep YTD 3Q Midstream Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 411 $ 115 $ 108 $ 348 $ 147 $ Adjustments: Impairments
411 $ 115 $ 108 $ 348 $ 147 $ Chemicals Net Income (loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 870 $ 230 $ 324 $ 725 $ 262 $ Adjustments: Impairments 69 69
939 $ 299 $ 324 $ 725 $ 262 $ Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2013 2014
Sep YTD 3Q 2Q Sep YTD 3Q Refining Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 1,254 $ 558 $ 390 $ 1,329 $ (30) $ Adjustments: Net (gain) loss on asset sales
1,254 $ 558 $ 390 $ 1,316 $ (30) $ Marketing & Specialties Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 667 $ 368 $ 162 $ 789 $ 255 $ Adjustments: Net (gain) loss on asset sales (109) (109)
558 $ 259 $ 162 $ 780 $ 255 $ Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2013 2014
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* Total equity plus total debt
2014 YTD Phillips 66 Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing & Specialties Numerator ($MM) Net Income 3,639 435 870 1,254 667 After-tax interest expense 126
3,765 435 870 1,254 667 Special Items (746)
Adjusted ROCE earnings 3,019 435 939 1,254 558 Denominator ($MM) GAAP average capital employed* 28,477 4,052 4,358 13,520 2,788 Discontinued Operations (96)
28,381 4,052 4,358 13,520 2,788 2014 Annualized Adjusted ROCE 14% 14% 29% 12% 27% 2014 Annualized GAAP ROCE 18% 14% 27% 12% 32%
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Millions of Dollars First Year Sweeny Fractionator One, Two & Export Facility Estimated net income 370 $ Plus: Estimated income taxes 230 Estimated net interest expense 10 Estimated depreciation and amortization 190 Estimated EBITDA 800 $