PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER 2018 CONFERENCE CALL February 8, 2019 1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER 2018 CONFERENCE CALL February 8, 2019 1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER 2018 CONFERENCE CALL February 8, 2019 1 CAUTIONARY STATEMENT This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E


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FOURTH QUARTER 2018 CONFERENCE CALL

February 8, 2019

PHILLIPS 66

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CAUTIONARY STATEMENT

This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. Words and phrases such as “is anticipated,” “is estimated,” “is expected,” “is planned,” “is scheduled,” “is targeted,” “believes,” “continues,” “intends,” “will,” “would,” “objectives,” “goals,” “projects,” “efforts,” “strategies” and similar expressions are used to identify such forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements relating to Phillips 66’s operations (including joint venture operations) are based on management’s expectations, estimates and projections about the company, its interests and the energy industry in general on the date this presentation was prepared. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements include fluctuations in NGL, crude oil, and natural gas prices, and petrochemical and refining margins; unexpected changes in costs for constructing, modifying or operating our facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing, refining or transporting our products; lack of, or disruptions in, adequate and reliable transportation for our NGL, crude oil, natural gas, and refined products; potential liability from litigation or for remedial actions, including removal and reclamation obligations under environmental regulations; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; the impact of adverse market conditions or other similar risks to those identified herein affecting PSXP , as well as the ability of PSXP to successfully execute its growth plans; and

  • ther economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting Phillips 66’s businesses generally as set forth in our filings with the

Securities and Exchange Commission. Phillips 66 is under no obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its forward- looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures at the end of the presentation materials or in the “Investors” section of our website.

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EXECUTING THE STRATEGY

New fractionation site and Sweeny Refinery, Old Ocean, Texas

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OVERVIEW 2018

(1) Dollars per share (2) Shareholder distributions include dividends and share repurchases (3) After-tax

$MM (unless otherwise noted) Adjusted earnings $ 5,550 Adjusted EPS1 11.71 Operating cash flow 7,573 Capital expenditures and investments 2,639 Shareholder distributions2 6,081 Net-debt-to-capital ratio ROCE3 23% 17%

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$B

CASH FLOW 2018

3.1 7.9 (0.3) 1.0 (2.6) (6.1) 3.0 December 31, 2017 Cash Balance* CFO (excluding Working Capital) Working Capital Capital Expenditures & Investments Shareholder Distributions Debt December 31, 2018 Cash Balance*

* Includes cash and cash equivalents

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OVERVIEW 4Q 2018

(1) Dollars per share (2) Shareholder distributions include dividends and share repurchases

$MM (unless otherwise noted) Adjusted earnings $ 2,260 Adjusted EPS1 4.87 Operating cash flow 4,139 Capital expenditures and investments 994 Shareholder distributions2 864

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ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2018

$MM

3Q 2018 Adjusted Earnings Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing & Specialties Corporate & Other Noncontrolling Interests 4Q 2018 Adjusted Earnings

4Q 2018 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income (Loss) 409 152 2,008 592 (201) (624) (76)

Income Tax Expense 1,456 97 (111) 745 207 22 (157) 1 2,260

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312 25 48 24 409

MIDSTREAM 4Q 2018

$MM Increased transportation volumes associated with strong refinery utilization rates

3Q 2018 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income Transportation NGL and Other DCP Midstream 4Q 2018 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income

4Q 2018

Strong Bakken Pipeline volumes

234 122 53

DCP Midstream completed Sand Hills Pipeline expansion

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263 (67) (35) (9) 152

CHEMICALS 4Q 2018

$MM

3Q 2018 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income Olefins & Polyolefins Specialties, Aromatics & Styrenics Other 4Q 2018 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income

Seasonally lower sales volumes

158 16 (22)

95% O&P capacity utilization Continued strong cash distributions

4Q 2018

O&P and SA&S impacted by higher turnaround costs

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1,263 85 247 342 71 2,008

REFINING 4Q 2018

3Q 2018 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income Atlantic Basin / Europe Gulf Coast Central Corridor West Coast 4Q 2018 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income 301 468 1,188 51

99% crude utilization 86% clean product yield $16.53/BBL realized margin $130 MM pre-tax turnaround costs $MM

4Q 2018

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REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2018

WORLDWIDE REFINING $/BBL

Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products Feedstock Other Realized Margin

Avg Market Crude: $65.50/BBL 181% Market Capture

9.11 0.35 (0.29) 3.79 3.57 16.53

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385 205 2 592

MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES 4Q 2018

Captured strong margins in a favorable market Refined products exports of 249 MBPD

3Q 2018 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income Marketing & Other Specialties 4Q 2018 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income 528 64

Re-imaged 466 branded sites $MM

4Q 2018

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$MM

(223) 9 13 (201)

CORPORATE AND OTHER 4Q 2018

4Q 2018 Adjusted Pre-Tax Loss Net Interest Expense Corporate Overhead & Other 3Q 2018 Adjusted Pre-Tax Loss

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OUTLOOK

1Q 2019 Global Olefins & Polyolefins utilization Refining crude utilization Refining turnaround expenses (pre-tax) Corporate & Other costs (pre-tax) Mid-90% Mid-80% $140 MM - $170 MM $210 MM - $240 MM 2019 Refining turnaround expenses (pre-tax) Corporate & Other costs (pre-tax) Depreciation and amortization Effective income tax rate $550 MM - $600 MM $850 MM - $900 MM $1.4 B Low-20%

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PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER 2018 CONFERENCE CALL

Questions and Answers

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Appendix

PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER 2018 CONFERENCE CALL

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ESTIMATED SENSITIVITIES 2019

Sensitivities shown above are independent and are only valid within a limited price range

Annual EBITDA $MM Midstream - DCP (net to Phillips 66) 10¢/Gal Increase in NGL price 6 10¢/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price 1 $1/BBL Increase in WTI price 1 Chemicals - CPChem (net to Phillips 66) 1¢/Lb Increase in Chain Margin (Ethylene, Polyethylene, NAO) 65 Worldwide Refining $1/BBL Increase in Gasoline Margin 350 $1/BBL Increase in Distillate Margin 300 Impacts due to Actual Crude Feedstock Differing from Feedstock Assumed in Market Indicators: $1/BBL Widening WTI / WCS Differential (WTI less WCS) 100 $1/BBL Widening LLS / WTI Differential (LLS less WTI) 70 $1/BBL Widening LLS / Maya Differential (LLS less Maya) 60 $1/BBL Widening WTI / WTS Differential (WTI less WTS) 30 $1/BBL Widening ANS / WTI Differential (ANS less WTI) 25 10¢/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price (15)

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CAPITAL STRUCTURE 2016 – 2018

Excluding PSXP

Equity $B Debt $B Cash & Cash Equivalents $B Debt-to-Capital Net-Debt-to-Capital

Consolidated PSX

2016 2017 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018 4Q 2018

23.7 27.4 24.3 25.0 25.8 27.2 10.1 10.1 11.6 11.4 11.3 11.2 2.7 3.1 0.8 1.9 0.9 3.0 30% 27% 32% 31% 31% 29% 24% 20% 31% 28% 29% 23%

2016 2017 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018 4Q 2018

22.4 25.1 22.0 22.6 23.4 24.7 7.7 7.2 8.7 8.4 8.4 8.1 2.7 2.9 0.7 1.7 0.8 3.0 26% 22% 28% 27% 26% 25% 18% 14% 27% 23% 25% 17%

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7.26 1.48 3.39 (2.53) 1.94 11.54

REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2018

ATLANTIC BASIN / EUROPE $/BBL

Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products Feedstock Other Realized Margin

Brent: $67.76/BBL Crude Capacity Utilization 159% Market Capture 98% Market 3:2:1 – Dated Brent / Gasoline 83.7 RBOB NYH / Diesel 15ppm NYH

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5.14 0.59 (0.54) 3.29 3.36 11.84

REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2018

GULF COAST $/BBL

LLS: $66.55/BBL Crude Capacity Utilization 230% Market Capture

Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products Feedstock Other Realized Margin

Market 3:2:1 – LLS / Gasoline 85 CBOB / Diesel 62 10ppm 100%

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14.57 0.21 (2.37) 11.26 6.93 30.60

REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2018

CENTRAL CORRIDOR $/BBL

Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products Feedstock Other Realized Margin

WTI: $59.09/BBL Crude Capacity Utilization 210% Market Capture 106% Market 3:2:1 – WTI / Gasoline Unl Sub Octane Group 3 / ULSD Group 3

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REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2018

WEST COAST $/BBL

12.66 (0.51) (2.88) 3.48 1.43 14.18

Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products Feedstock Other Realized Margin

ANS: $68.65/BBL Crude Capacity Utilization 112% Market Capture 87% Market 3:2:1 – ANS / Los Angeles CARBOB / Los Angeles No. 2 CARB

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ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2018 VS. 4Q 2017

548 213 (9) 1,498 424 25 (420) (19) 2,260

409 152 2,008 592 (201) (624) (76)

$MM

4Q 2017 Adjusted Earnings Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing & Specialties Corporate & Other Noncontrolling Interests 4Q 2018 Adjusted Earnings

4Q 2018 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income (Loss)

Income Tax Expense

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MIDSTREAM 4Q 2018 VS. 4Q 2017

4Q 2017 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income Transportation NGL and Other DCP Midstream 4Q 2018 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income

4Q 2018

196 82 104 27 409

234 122 53

$MM

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161 22 (19) (12) 152

CHEMICALS 4Q 2018 VS. 4Q 2017

4Q 2017 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income Olefins & Polyolefins Specialties, Aromatics & Styrenics Other 4Q 2018 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income

158 16 (22)

$MM

4Q 2018

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REFINING 4Q 2018 VS. 4Q 2017

4Q 2017 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income Atlantic Basin / Europe Gulf Coast Central Corridor West Coast 4Q 2018 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income 510 144 361 887 106 2,008

301 468 1,188 51

$MM

4Q 2018

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MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES 4Q 2018 VS. 4Q 2017

168 417 7 592

4Q 2018 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income 4Q 2017 Adjusted Pre- Tax Income 528 64 Marketing & Other Specialties

$MM

4Q 2018

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(226) (1) 26 (201)

CORPORATE AND OTHER 4Q 2018 VS. 4Q 2017

$MM

4Q 2018 Adjusted Pre-Tax Loss Net Interest Expense Corporate Overhead & Other 4Q 2017 Adjusted Pre-Tax Loss

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* We generally tax effect taxable U.S.-based special items using a combined federal and state statutory income tax rate of approximately 25 percent beginning in 2018, and approximately 38 percent for periods prior to

  • 2018. Taxable special items attributable to foreign locations likewise use a local statutory income tax rate. Nontaxable events reflect zero income tax. These events include, but are not limited to, most goodwill

impairments, transactions legislatively exempt from income tax, transactions related to entities for which we have made an assertion that the undistributed earnings are permanently reinvested, or transactions

  • ccurring in jurisdictions with a valuation allowance.

** Weighted-average diluted shares outstanding and income allocated to participating securities, if applicable, in the adjusted earnings per share calculation are the same as those used in the GAAP diluted earnings per share calculation.

Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2018 2017 Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q Phillips 66 Consolidated Earnings $ 5,595 2,240 1,492 5,106 3,198 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pending claims and settlements 21 — 21 (60) — Pension settlement expense 67 18 49 83 7 Impairments by equity affiliates 28 28 — 64 31 Certain tax impacts (119) (4) (45) (23) (23) Gain on consolidation of business — — — (423) — Hurricane-related costs — — — 210 140 Tax impact of adjustments* (1) (12) (6) 47 (70) U.S. tax reform 23 55 (49) (2,735) (2,735) Other tax impacts (70) (65) (5) — — Noncontrolling interests 6 — (1) — — Adjusted Earnings $ 5,550 2,260 1,456 2,269 548 Earnings Per Share of Common Stock (dollars) $ 11.80 4.82 3.18 9.85 6.25 Adjusted Earnings Per Share of Common Stock (dollars)** $ 11.71 4.87 3.10 4.38 1.07

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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30 Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2018 2017 Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q Midstream Pre-Tax Income $ 1,181 379 284 638 189 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pending claims and settlements 21 — 21 (37) — Pension settlement expense 9 2 7 12 1 Impairments by equity affiliates 28 28 — — — Hurricane-related costs — — — 10 6 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income $ 1,239 409 312 623 196 Chemicals Pre-Tax Income $ 1,025 152 263 716 8 Pre-tax Adjustments: Impairments by equity affiliates — — — 64 31 Hurricane-related costs — — — 175 122 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income $ 1,025 152 263 955 161

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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31 Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2018 2017 Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q Refining Pre-Tax Income $ 4,535 2,001 1,232 2,076 516 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pending claims and settlements — — — (51) — Gain on consolidation of business — — — (423) — Certain tax impacts (6) (4) (1) (23) (23) Pension settlement expense 43 11 32 53 5 Hurricane-related costs — — — 24 12 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income $ 4,572 2,008 1,263 1,656 510 Marketing & Specialties Pre-Tax Income $ 1,557 589 423 1,020 167 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pension settlement expense 9 3 6 11 1 Hurricane-related costs — — — 1 — Certain tax impacts (113) — (44) — — Adjusted Pre-Tax Income $ 1,453 592 385 1,032 168

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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32 Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2018 2017 Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q Corporate and Other Pre-Tax Loss $ (853) (203) (227) (895) (226) Pre-tax Adjustments: Pending claims and settlements — — — 28 — Pension settlement expense 6 2 4 7 — U.S. Tax Reform (16) — — — — Adjusted Pre-Tax Loss $ (863) (201) (223) (860) (226)

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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33 Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2018 2017 Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q Midstream - Transportation Pre-Tax Income $ 770 234 209 530 147 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pending claims and settlements — — — (37) — Hurricane-related costs — — — 8 5 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income $ 770 234 209 501 152 Midstream - NGL and Other Pre-Tax Income $ 305 120 46 32 16 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pending claims and settlements 21 — 21 — — Pension settlement expense 9 2 7 12 1 Hurricane-related costs — — — 2 1 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income $ 335 122 74 46 18 Midstream - DCP Midstream Pre-Tax Income $ 106 25 29 76 26 Pre-tax Adjustments: Impairments by equity affiliates 28 28 — — — Adjusted Pre-Tax Income $ 134 53 29 76 26

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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34 Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2018 2017 Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q Refining - Atlantic Basin / Europe Pre-Tax Income $ 567 302 209 448 179 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pending claims and settlements — — — (7) — Certain tax impacts (5) (4) (1) (23) (23) Pension settlement expense 11 3 8 14 1 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income $ 573 301 216 432 157 Refining - Gulf Coast Pre-Tax Income $ 1,040 464 210 809 93 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pending claims and settlements — — — (9) — Gain on consolidation of business — — — (423) — Pension settlement expense 15 4 11 18 2 Hurricane-related costs — — — 24 12 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income $ 1,055 468 221 419 107

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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35 Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2018 2017 Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q Refining - Central Corridor Pre-Tax Income $ 2,817 1,185 839 755 299 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pending claims and settlements — — — (7) — Pension settlement expense 10 3 7 13 2 Adjusted Pre-Tax Income $ 2,827 1,188 846 761 301 Refining - West Coast Pre-Tax Income (Loss) $ 111 50 (26) 64 (55) Pre-tax Adjustments: Pending claims and settlements — — — (28) — Certain tax impacts (1) — — — — Pension settlement expense 7 1 6 8 — Adjusted Pre-Tax Income (Loss) $ 117 51 (20) 44 (55)

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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36 Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2018 2017 Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q Marketing & Specialties - Marketing & Other Pre-Tax Income $ 1,306 525 361 808 110 Pre-tax Adjustments: Certain tax impacts (113) — (44) — — Pension settlement expense 9 3 6 11 1 Hurricane-related costs — — — 1 — Adjusted Pre-Tax Income $ 1,202 528 323 820 111 Marketing & Specialties - Specialties Pre-Tax Income $ 251 64 62 212 57 Pre-tax Adjustments: Adjusted Pre-Tax Income $ 251 64 62 212 57

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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* Adjusted total processed inputs include our proportional share of processed inputs of an equity affiliate. ** Income before income taxes divided by total processed inputs. *** Realized refining margins per barrel, as presented, are calculated using the underlying realized refining margin amounts, in dollars, divided by adjusted total processed inputs, in barrels. As such, recalculated per barrel amounts using the rounded margins and barrels presented may differ from the presented per barrel amounts due to rounding.

Millions of Dollars (Except as Indicated) 2018 4Q Atlantic Basin/Europe Gulf Coast Central Corridor West Coast Worldwide Realized Refining Margins Income before income taxes $ 302 464 1,185 50 2,001 Plus: Taxes other than income taxes 13 17 12 24 66 Depreciation, amortization and impairments 49 69 34 59 211 Selling, general and administrative expenses 19 21 13 16 69 Operating expenses 223 337 132 318 1,010 Equity in (earnings) losses of affiliates 3 1 (353) — (349) Other segment (income) expense, net (1) — (5) 2 (4) Proportional share of refining gross margins contributed by equity affiliates 14 — 514 — 528 Special items: Certain tax impacts (4) — — — (4) Realized refining margins $ 618 909 1,532 469 3,528 Total processed inputs (thousands of barrels) 53,613 76,838 27,076 32,954 190,481 Adjusted total processed inputs (thousands of barrels)* 53,613 76,838 50,039 32,954 213,444 Income before income taxes (dollars per barrel)** $ 5.63 6.04 43.77 1.52 10.50 Realized refining margins (dollars per barrel)*** $ 11.54 11.84 30.60 14.18 16.53

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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* Capital employed is total equity plus total debt

2018 Phillips 66 Numerator ($MM) Net Income $ 5,873 After-tax interest expense 398 GAAP ROCE earnings $ 6,271 After-tax Special items (51) Adjusted ROCE earnings $ 6,220 Denominator ($MM) GAAP average capital employed* $ 37,925 2018 GAAP ROCE 17% 2018 Adjusted ROCE 16%

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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* Phillips 66 Partners’ third-party debt and Phillips 66's noncontrolling interest attributable to Phillips 66 Partners

Millions of Dollars 2018 December 31 Phillips 66 Consolidated Phillips 66 Partners * Adjusted Phillips 66 Total Debt $ 11,160 3,048 8,112 Total Equity 27,153 2,469 24,684 Debt-to-Capital Ratio 29% 25% Total Cash & Cash Equivalents $ 3,019 1 3,018 Net-Debt-to-Capital Ratio 23% 17%

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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40 Millions of Dollars Millions of Dollars 2018 2018 4Q Year Growth Sustaining Total Growth Sustaining Total Capital Expenditures and Investments Midstream $ 510 60 570 $ 1,360 188 1,548 Refining 102 199 301 267 559 826 Marketing & Specialties 34 26 60 71 54 125 Corporate and Other 2 61 63 6 134 140 Total $ 648 346 994 $ 1,704 935 2,639

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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41 PSX Effective Tax Rate: Millions of Dollars 2018 4Q Year Effective Tax Rates Income before income taxes $ 2,918 7,445 Special items 42 (19) Adjusted income before income taxes $ 2,960 7,426 Income tax expense $ 602 1,572 Special items 22 32 Adjusted income tax expense $ 624 1,604 GAAP effective tax rate 20.6% 21.1% Adjusted effective tax rate 21.1% 21.6%

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS