SLIDE 1 12 July 2012 Presentation to The Economist Bellwether Series 2012 (Sydney)
The Euro Crisis and the Financial System
Philip Lowe
Deputy Governor
SLIDE 2
5 10 15 20 25 30 5 10 15 20 25 30
Central Bank Balance Sheets
Assets, per cent of GDP
Sources: central banks; RBA; Thomson Reuters
% Bank of England 2000 2004 US Federal Reserve European Central Bank Bank of Japan 2008 1996 % 2012
SLIDE 3
3 6 9 12 15 3 6 9 12 15
10-year Government Bond Yields
Sources: Bloomberg; Global Financial Data
US % % 2012 Germany Japan 2002 1992 1982 1972 1962
SLIDE 4
100 200 300 400 100 200 300 400
AAA-rated Securities Issuance
Based on Standard & Poor's ratings, 12-month rolling average
Source: Dealogic
2012 Public sector US$b US$b 2008 2004 2000 Private sector
SLIDE 5
0.3 1.0 0.3 1.0
Banks’ Price-to-book-value Ratios
Ratio Australia Euro area Non-Japan Asia
Source: Bloomberg
2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 Ratio 2.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 Log scale
SLIDE 6 Private Sector Credit Growth
Year-ended % Japan
15
15 15 15
Sources: CEIC; ECB; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
2012 United States Rest of east Asia % % % Euro area 2012 2007 2002 2007 2002
SLIDE 7
50 100 150
50 100 150
Non-Japan Asia – Net Private Capital Flows
Rolling 4-quarter sum
Source: CEIC
2012 US$b US$b 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
SLIDE 8
SLIDE 9
5 10 15 5 10 15
Share of Business Credit
Foreign-owned banks 2012 European % 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 Asian North American %
Sources: APRA; RBA
SLIDE 10
1 2 3 1 2 3
Australian-owned Banks’ Claims on Asia
Share of consolidated assets, immediate risk basis 2011 % % 2009 2007 2005 2003
Sources: APRA; RBA
SLIDE 11
100 200 300
100 200 300
100 200 300
100 200 300 2012 Lending rate 2010 2008 2006 Funding cost
Average Rates on Major Banks’ Outstanding Lending and Funding
Bps Bps Spreads to cash rate, monthly 2004
Sources: APRA; Bloomberg; Financial reports; RBA; UBS Australia AG