Perspectives conomiques, risques gopolitiques et tendances de march - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Perspectives conomiques, risques gopolitiques et tendances de march - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jun 11, 2023 164 likes •516 views

Perspectives conomiques, risques gopolitiques et tendances de march Sylvain BARTHELEMY Directeur Gnral AFTE Bretagne-Normandie Rennes, octobre 2018 Qui sommes-nous ? Experts en conomie et en finance, accompagnant les

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Perspectives économiques, risques géopolitiques et tendances de marché

Sylvain BARTHELEMY Directeur Général AFTE Bretagne-Normandie Rennes, octobre 2018

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Qui sommes-nous ?

  • Experts en économie et en finance, accompagnant les

entreprises dans leurs stratégies à l’international.

  • Outils d’aide à la décision à partir d’intelligence

artificielle.

  • Une société rennaise qui existe depuis 25 ans.
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Pourquoi suivre le risque pays ?

Perte Valeur Actif & CA € Perte de Compétitivit é Nouvelle Concurrence Risque Client Réglementat ion Transfert Devises Baisse des Ventes Risque de Tensions Sociales Risque Réglementai re

RISQUE PAYS

ACTIVITE

TAUX DE CHANGE

PAIEMENTS

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CHANGE

En 2018: Argentine -54% Turquie -37% Brésil -19% Russie -12% En 2017:

Egypte -44% Ouzbékistan -43% Congo-Kinshasa -31%

Une période plus calme depuis 2017… … mais des chocs économiques tout de même !

ACTIVITE Moyenne croissance du PIB des marchés émergents proche de 4.5 Venezuela (-13.2%), Congo-Brazzaville (-4.6%), Kuwait (-2.5%)… et la Chine fait presque 7%, contre 14% en 2007 ! INFLATION En moyenne proche de 3% Argentine 26%, Nigéria 17%, Iran 10%, Turquie 18%, Ukraine 14% Congo-Kinshasa 42% Libye 28%, Egypte 24% Venezuela >1000%

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Présentation AFTE

Global Economic & Financial Outlook

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US GDP growth Y/Y, in %

Source: Datastream, TAC ECONOMICS

2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook

1- Timing the US cycle: financial / real interactions

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2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook

1- Timing the US cycle: financial / real interactions

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Contributions to US GDP growth (q/q annualized)

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2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook

Schiller PE Index

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2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook

1- Timing the US cycle: market risks

Size of S&P500 changes during US recessions (%) Size of US Corporate Bond Spread changes during US recessions (bp)

Source: TAC ECONOMICS, Datastream

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2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook

1- Timing the US cycle: financial / real interactions

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Monetary policy normalization Tighter financial conditions, deteriorating corp.balance sheets Erase impact

  • f fiscal

reforms on net profits Negative profit growth and excess valuation lead to equity reversal Impact on demand and confidence Economic cycle reversal 2 more hikes in Fed Fund rates in 2018 and reduction in Fed’s balance sheet 10y Treasury yield moving above 3.5% during 2019H1 and widening corporate spreads Sharp reversal in US equity markets around mid-2019 (potentially around -35%) Entry into recession after a rapid slowdown

2019Q2 or Q3? 2019Q4 or 2020H1? August 2018

  • Dec. 2018

Uncertain impact of

  • ne-off cash

repatriation by US corp.

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US 10-year bond yield model

Source: TAC ECONOMICS, BEA, Datastream

2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook

US rising short- and long-term rates

US Monetary Policy Reaction Function

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Eurozone real GDP growth convergence (% y/y)

Sources: Datastream, TAC ECONOMICS

2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook

Euro Zone

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Eurozone wages and consumption Eurozone capacity utilization Rate (%)

Source: TAC ECONOMICS, Datastream

2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook

Eurozone: resilience giving way to over-stretch and dependence

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2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook

Eurozone: resilience giving way to over-stretch and dependence

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Eurozone Economic Climate Tracer

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Real GDP growth projections Average 2014-2016 vs 2017-2019

2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook

Euro Zone

Source: TAC ECONOMICS, IMF/WEO

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Présentation AFTE

Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

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Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

Trade tensions: tariff issue or strategic confrontation?

  • Growth in external trade improved since 2016, but global sentiment on

trade has degraded, with growing actions on trade protectionism and expanding fear of “trade war”, a vicious circle of retaliatory measures with substantial impact on global trade flows. Special case for China.

  • ST impact to remain low on volumes of trade, higher on inflation (+0.5 pp

for headline US inflation), with strong resistance to trade restrictions.

  • Risks are higher for 2019 when cyclical dynamics revert. Plausible

estimates on global output range from large-but-manageable 0.5 to 1 pp subtraction to more systemic shock (above 3 pp) if and when other restrictive measures are applied in a more geo-economics / geopolitical rivalry context.

  • In this background, regional trade integration is more likely to find its

way, notwithstanding the current tensions within Nafta and other regional groupings.

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Trade War: what are we talking about?

A broader LT view: unavoidable slowdown in international trade dynamics

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LT trend in international trade: towards a plateau world export as % of world GDP since 1820

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  • Economic & Financial risks defined by 3 macro risks : currency risk, cross-

border payment risk, and cyclical / activity risk, on 3 different time- horizons (<1 year, 1-3 years, 3-5 years)

  • 2 measures for Economic & Financial risks:
  • Economic & Financial Risk Ratings combine the information provided by 6

Fundamental Balances, with non-linear relations; measured on a continuous scale (0-100 and A to D) and assess risks in “normal” circumstances

  • Crisis Signals, provided by non-parametric / data-mining tools, assess the

likelihood of systemic breaks and major crises

  • Political Risk measured with Political Risk Ratings based on World Bank KKZ

indicators, including broad governance indicators

  • Risk-Related Cost of Capital (RRECC) through econometric modelling and

including smoothed market price measures

Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

Methodology

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Economic Risk Political Risk Growth Balance Real GDP, current account,… Debt Balance External debt, FDI Liquidity Balance Short-Term debt, rfx level Exchange Rate Balance Currency valuation, rfx dynamic Cyclical Balance Business cycle, monetary policy Banking System Balance Domestic credit, fx.refinancing KKZ Methodology Voice & Accountability Political Stability Regulatory Quality Government Effectiveness Rule of Law Control of Corruption Country Groups Three groups Major arbitrage markets Commodity exporters High number of past restructuring

Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

Methodology

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Economic Risk Crisis Signals Political Risk Economic Risk Ratings Political Risk Ratings Group Premium Country Risk Premium (RRECC), calibrated on JP Morgan’s EMBI Country Groups

Statistical Calibration on combinations & threshold effects Data Mining 5 non-parametric models Statistical Normalization

Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

Methodology

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Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs: risk materialization

Economic & Financial Risk Rating from 0 (lowest risk) to 100 (highest risk) Average for 100 EM countries Economic & Financial Risk Rating from 0 (lowest risk) to 100 (highest risk) By Country’s Size

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Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

China: plausible scenarios

Where is GDP growth heading? Plausible scenarios based on TAC ECONOMICS set of recursive-Partitioning Models

Source: TAC ECONOMICS

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Public Balance and Current Account Balance (2017, % of GDP)

Source: TAC ECONOMICS, IMF/WEO

Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

Most vulnerable countries hit first: “dual deficit”

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Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

Vulnerabilities + political issues + US tightening = speculative attacks

Exchange rate against USD average for 10KeyEM

Source: TAC ECONOMICS, Datastream

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Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

Vulnerabilities + political issues + US tightening = speculative attacks

Nominal Exchange rate against USD changes since Jan. 1, 2018 As of Sep. 28, 2018

Source: TAC ECONOMICS, Datastream

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Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

Vulnerabilities + political issues + US tightening = speculative attacks

Emerging Markets Inflation Average for 10 Key EM

Source: TAC ECONOMICS, Datastream

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Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

Monetary tightening under way in large EM

Emerging Markets Policy Rate average for 10 countries weighted and not-weighted by GDP

Source: TAC ECONOMICS, Datastream

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Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

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Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

Une croissance plus rapide des « émergents »

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Croissance du PIB (%)

Source : TAC ECONOMICS, FMI/WEO

+3% à +4%

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Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

GDP Growth Outlook

Gross Domestic Product Growth Outlook (%)

Source: TAC ECONOMICS, IMF/WEO

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Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

Les pays à forte croissance économique

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Top 10 – Croissance du PIB Moyenne 2018-2019 (%)

Source : TAC ECONOMICS, FMI/WEO

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Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs

Potentiel à 2025 de quelques « gros émergents »

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Investissement et Population en Age de Travailler

Source : TAC ECONOMICS, FMI/WEO, Nations Unies

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Merci de votre attention

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For more information, please contact

Morgane Lohézic Head of Development & Communication morgane.lohezic@taceconomics.com Béatrice Guillemot Business Development & Communication beatrice.guillemot@taceconomics.com

  • r call TAC ECONOMICS at +33 2 99 39 31 40