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Patch to the Future: Unsupervised Visual Prediction Jacob Walker, Abhinav Gupta, Martial Hebert The Robotics Institute Carnegie Mellon University Visual Prediction Goal Both the what and the how Goal Both the what and the how Goal Both the


  1. Patch to the Future: Unsupervised Visual Prediction Jacob Walker, Abhinav Gupta, Martial Hebert The Robotics Institute Carnegie Mellon University

  2. Visual Prediction

  3. Goal Both the what and the how

  4. Goal Both the what and the how

  5. Goal Both the what and the how

  6. Goal Both the what and the how

  7. Goal Both the what and the how

  8. Goal Both the what and the how

  9. Background Data-Driven Yuen et al. 2010

  10. Background Data-Driven Yuen et al. 2010

  11. Background Data-Driven Yuen et al. 2010

  12. Background Agent-Centric Kitani et al. 2012, Koppula et al. 2013, etc.

  13. Background Agent-Centric Kitani et al. 2012, Koppula et al. 2013, etc.

  14. Our Approach Data-Driven

  15. Our Approach Data-Driven + Agent-Centric

  16. Our Approach Unsupervised

  17. Limitations Domain-Dependent Train Test

  18. Limitations Goal-Driven

  19. Limitations No Inter-Element Prediction

  20. Overview

  21. Representation Singh et al. 2012

  22. Action Space

  23. Scene Interaction

  24. Scene Interaction

  25. Scene Interaction High Low

  26. Expected Reward P(Transition) Reward(X,Y,C) E(Reward) = P(T) * R

  27. Planning

  28. Planning

  29. Planning

  30. Planning

  31. Planning

  32. Planning

  33. Planning

  34. Planning

  35. Planning

  36. Planning

  37. Planning

  38. Planning

  39. Planning

  40. Planning

  41. Training Transitions Scene Interaction

  42. Training Transitions Scene Interaction

  43. Training Transitions

  44. Training Patch Transitions

  45. Training Transitions Scene Interaction

  46. Training Scene Interaction

  47. Training Scene Interaction

  48. Training Scene Interaction

  49. Training Scene Interaction

  50. Training Scene Interaction

  51. Datasets • 183 Videos • 139 Training • 44 Testing • ~300 Minutes

  52. Qualitative Results

  53. Qualitative Results

  54. Quantitative Results

  55. Quantitative Results Data-Driven Active Entity Error (Top 6) NN + Sift-Flow Ours Mean 22.34 14.38 Median 16.68 10.91

  56. Quantitative Results Human-Chosen Active Entity Error (Top 1) NN+Sift-Flow Kitani et al. Ours Mean 27.55 37.94 21.55 Median 23.77 30.23 14.98

  57. VIRAT Second Dataset

  58. Conclusion • Unsupervised method for prediction • No explicit modeling of semantics • Models appearance changes • Code will be available!

  59. Thank You!

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