Paper for I PC session 1 4 0 5 Population and developm ent in Sm all - - PDF document

Paper for I PC session 1 4 0 5 Population and developm ent in Sm all I sland Developing States ( SI DS) Author and presenter: Dr. Wardlow Friesen, Geography, School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand w.friesen@auckland.ac.nz Title: Population and development in Solomon Islands: families, youth and livelihoods Abstract: In 2016 the Solomon Islands government, with support from UNFPA, launched a National Population Policy (2017-2026), with a range of ambitious objectives linking population and development. The Solomon Islands has one of the highest fertility rates, and one of the lowest Human Development Indexes, in the Pacific

• Islands. Also, unlike some of the Polynesian islands to the east, it has very few

international migration options for employment or other purposes. The challenges arising from these circumstances are considerable. This paper will consider these challenges by synthesising a range of data sources, academic studies, reports by government, international agencies and NGOs, and media

• reports. Its focus will be the interrelationships between family size and

structure, the youth bulge and livelihoods possibilities. These will be considered in the context of the objectives of the Solomon Islands National Population Policy.

Population and developm ent in Solom on I slands: fam ilies, youth and livelihoods

I ntroduction In October 2016, the Solomon Islands government, with support from UNFPA, launched its National Population Policy 2017-2026. This policy was presented as part of a broader National Development Policy and has various objectives related to inclusive development, service provision and respect for human rights. These

• bjectives are wide-ranging and ambitious, and this paper considers the policy in

relation to the demographic and economic conditions of one of the poorest nations in the Pacific islands. The Solomon Islands gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1978, and is a country largely dependent on the export of natural resources for foreign exchange and government revenue. Solomon Islands is part of Melanesia, in the Western Pacific, and unlike the Polynesian nations to the east, it has very few international migration options available for either employment or other

• purposes. Thus, international remittances are insignificant nationally and as a

source of income for households. At the same time, levels of International Development Assistance are high on a per capita basis, and have supported the development of sectors such as health and education. About 80 percent of the population resides in rural areas, and in terms of livelihoods, it is highly reliant on the subsistence sector. In 2016, its Human Development Index was .515, placing it at 156 of the 188 countries ranked, and the lowest of any Pacific islands country. This ranking was a result of relatively low scores on all three of the requisite index components of life expectancy, education and gross national income. Population change, m igration and fertility The population of Solomon Islands has grown steadily through the second half of the twentieth century and into the twenty first century, and is projected to continue to grow significantly to 2040. Population growth rates have been

relatively high in recent years, with average annual growth peaking between the censuses of 1976 and 1986 at 3.4 percent and then declining to 2.3 percent between 1999 and 2009, and projected to decline further to 2.0 by 2040. 1 Of the components of population change, international migration has had the least impact. Over a century ago, there was significant movement of labour from the Solomons to Queensland and other Pacific destinations, mostly to work in colonial plantations. However, since these so-called ‘blackbirding’ movements were halted by British colonial authorities in 1911, Solomon Islands has had relatively little access to other destinations for either temporary or permanent migration (Craig et al. 2014). I n 2009, less than one percent of the enumerated population were born overseas, and when net international migration rates were estimated, perhaps a similar emigration rate has resulted in a net migration rate close to zero (Solomon Islands Government 2013: 74). Immigrants tend to be those who have come to work in the Solomon Islands, and most are not permanent residents, while Solomon-born emigrants are likely to be those who are studying overseas as well as a few who have gained residency in Australia or New Zealand through skills qualifications or marriage (Friesen 2013b: 3-5). With international migration having a negligible effect on population growth rates, the main variable in change is natural increase. Life expectancy has risen from an estimated 58 years in 1967 (Solomon Islands Government 2002: 97) to about 68 in 2015 (UNDP 2016: 200). Improvements in health can be partly credited for this increase in life expectancy, but especially important has been the decline in infant mortality. In the early 1960s, the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) was estimated to be 122 per thousand babies born, declining to about half this rate by the mid-1970s, and then continuing to decline to about 23 shown in the 2009 Census (Solomon Islands Government 2013: 56). Fertility is the other significant variable in the growth of the Solomon Islands

• population. Fertility levels in the Solomon Islands are high by both Pacific Islands

and world standards, but have been declining in recent decades. From a high of

1 Projections cited in this paper come from the 2016 round of projections produced by

the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC), Noumea.

7.7 in the mid-1970s, the TFR has declined to 4.1 at the most recent census in 2009 (Figure 1), 2 despite a relatively modest uptake of family planning. For several decades, family planning has been a relatively low profile and sometimes controversial activity in Solomon Islands. In the first population policy of the independent Solomon Islands in 1988, the concept of family planning as a strategy for reducing the rate of population growth was sanctioned by national leaders (Ministry of Health and Medical Services 1988; Rowling et al. 1995). However, despite the establishment of a Maternal and Child Health Unit within the Ministry of Health, the funding of family planning activities was left to international aid donors (Rowling et al. 1995: 617). Some opposition to family planning, especially modern contraception, has remained since that time, especially by certain church groups. According to Family Planning 2020, by 2016, only 4,000 women were using modern contraception, resulting in a Contraception Prevalence Rate of about 24 percent of all women, or 32 percent

• f married women (Family Planning 2020 2017).

The slow decline of the TFR may be attributed to some uptake of modern contraception, but other factors include urbanisation and education are also

• significant. The 2009 Census showed a clear correlation between a woman’s

educational attainment and fertility, with the TFR for those with some primary education at 4.9, declining to 3.8 for those with secondary, and to 2.8 for those with tertiary education (Solomon Islands Government 2013: 46). [ section on family and household size and structure] Policy Goal 1 of the National Population Policy 2017-2026 is to have “fertility and unintended pregnancy, particularly among adolescent girls significantly reduced” (Solomon Islands Government 2016: 38). Specific objectives which are part of this goal include improved access to reproductive health services including family planning, integration of health and family life education in schools, and community-based education and communication (ibid). Supporting Goal 1 is Goal 2 “Infant, child and maternal mortality reduced” through activities such as improving obstetric facilities and other health facilities for women, as well

2 Using other analytical methods, these TFR rates have been estimated to be lower in the

1970s (7.4), and potentially higher in 2009 (4.7) (Solomon Islands Government 2016: 12-13). [ pop policy]

increased monitoring of conditions and outcomes of reproductive health throughout the country. The activities emanating from the objectives of both of these goals will be led by the Ministry of Health and Medical Services, but are also dependent on collaboration with other government ministries as well as with a number of NGOs working in these areas (e.g. Solomon Islands Planned Parenthood Association, Vois Blong Mere, and Save the Children Fund). Figure 1 Source: Solomon Islands Government 2013 2009 Population and Housing Census: National Report (Volume 2) Analysis, p. 39

The youth bulge, w ork activities and livelihoods Although the decline in fertility rates has slowed the rate of population growth, the momentum effect is still significant, notably in recent decades with a youth bulge which has been a challenge to the education system and in terms of the large numbers entering labour force ages. Figure 2 shows the steady growth of the age cohorts aged 15 to 24 between 1976 and 2009, and projected growth of these cohorts to 2040, growing by a multiple of about six over this period. The momentum effects of the high fertility rates of the 1960s and 1970s are shown in the proportionate increase of the youth cohorts in the 1980s and 1990s and then an ‘echo effect’ a quarter of a century later (Figure 2). Despite the fact that life expectancy is rising in Solomon Islands, and the population starting to age, the youth cohorts in which demand for higher education (secondary and tertiary) and employment are large, and will continue to comprise a relatively high proportion of the population in coming decades (18 to 21 percent). Figure 2 Data sources: Solomon censuses 1976, 1986, 1999, 2009; Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC) population projections (2016).

The lack of formal sector jobs available in relation to the ‘working age’ cohort aged 15-54 has been an issue since the 1980s, when less than 20 percent of those in this cohort were employed in waged jobs (Friesen 1994: 230). By the 2009 Census, this proportion had not changed substantially, with 19.8 percent of all those aged 15 to 54 having ‘wages and salaries’ (employee, employer, self- employed). The male wage participation rate was 22.9 percent and the female rate 9.2 percent. In the mixed economy of the Solomon Islands, the measurement of labour force participation using only wage and salary measures is inadequate, when the diversity of work activities is considered. Figure 3 shows the way in which (work) activities and the labour force were conceptualised in the 2009 Census, and further work in developing this conceptualisation (and related measures) will be undertaken for the 2019 Census. As well as wage and salary earners, those considered to be doing ‘cash work’ includes those producing goods for cash sales, such as copra, fish, crafts and many other products (Figure 3). Also ‘working’ are those that are doing ‘non-cash work’ such as voluntary work, unpaid family work, and production for consumption (e.g. growing food crops, building own homes and fishing). (Arguably the category of ‘homemaker’ shown in Figure 3 should be in this category as well). The ‘labour force’ includes these categories of work, as well as those unemployed and actively looking for work. If we use this more comprehensive definition of ‘work’ we can more accurately assess the (work) activities of youth, as is done in Table 1. Using this definition

• f ‘work’ the data show that those aged 20 to 24 are the most likely to be

neither in education or work, with 24 percent of females and 21 percent of males in this category. When those in urban areas are considered, the percentages are about 10 percent higher for both women and men. These statistics present a different picture compared to those simply using wage employment, suggesting that many/ most of those without a formal sector job are doing productive work. Nevertheless, it is still an important policy issue that such a high proportion of youth have not found a livelihoods niche for themselves, and further that many

• f those in unpaid work continue to aspire to paid employment.

Figure 3 Source: Friesen (2013a) Solomon Islands 2009 Census of Housing and Population: Report on economic activity and labour force, p. 30. Table 1 Source: Friesen (2013a) Solomon Islands 2009 Census of Housing and Population: Report on economic activity and labour force, p. 50.

Education, in itself, does not guarantee a secure position in the formal labour force because of the youth bulge, and because the formal economy is not expanding as rapidly as the population. Thus, livelihood options must include small-scale developments at the village level, as well as expansion of livelihood alternatives in urban areas. Goal 3 of the National Population Policy is to achieve “employment and other

• pportunities for rural and urban youths” and includes initiatives to expand

tertiary, especially technical, education options, develop a youth employment national plan, and provide small and medium enterprise programmes for youth, including micro-finance schemes (Solomon Islands Government 2016: 40). There are some signs that some progress towards this aspirational goal is already underway, with an expansion of tertiary education institutions, and a range of small enterprise initiatives by international and local NGOS. I nternational options There are relatively limited livelihood options for Solomon Islanders

• internationally. Despite its colonial linkages to the United Kingdom, and various

religious, cultural and economic linkages to Australia and New Zealand, the Solomon Islands does not have easy access to these countries for permanent residency or for temporary employment. While international migration and resulting remittances contribute significantly to the economies of Polynesia, they are relatively insignificant in Melanesia, with only a few hundred Solomons-born permanent residents in Australia and New Zealand. The Recognised Seasonal Employer scheme in New Zealand has involved about 500 Solomon Islanders annually in recent years. However, while this generates some remittances and income and experience returning to villages, the conditions of the RSE are

• constrained. Workers are contracted for seven months, are not usually allowed

to find employment with another employer, and are not allowed to stay on after their contract. Australia has a similar seasonal work scheme in which Solomon Islanders are involved, but the numbers are relatively small. There are calls for the migration and development relationships between Melanesian countries and regional aid donors, especially Australia and New Zealand, to be framed in a more holistic way so that greater migration

• pportunities might be offered to Solomon Islanders and others, within

programmes that also include considerations of population change, education systems and livelihood realities (Craig et al. 2014: 20). Conclusions In Solomon Islands, the TFR is not projected to reach the estimated ‘replacement level’ of 2.1 until about 2054, and this does assume some success

• f the National Population Policy and extension of family planning and the

improvement of conditions for women within the country. Thus the youth bulge is likely to continue to be a demographic and planning issue for many years to

• come. More integrated planning for this reality needs to take into account the

expanded (and alternative?) provision of secondary and tertiary education, alternative models of ‘work’, and a broader conceptualisation of ‘livelihoods’. [ more to come here?] References Craig, D., et al. (2014). Labour mobility and diaspora: an overview of Solomon Islands' historical regulatory experience, 1850s-2013. NIDEA Working Papers. Hamilton: NIDEA, The University of Waikato. No. 6: 26. Family Planning 2020 (2017) Solomon Islands data, http: / / www.familyplanning2020.org/ entities/ 133, accessed 27/ 9/ 2017. Friesen, W. (1994). "Circulation, urbanisation and the youth boom in island Melanesia." Espace, Populations, Societés 1994(2): 225-236. Friesen, W. (2013a). Solomon Islands 2009 Census of Housing and Population: Report on economic activity and labour force. Honiara: Solomon Islands National Statistical Office, 57 pp. Friesen, W. (2013b). Solomon Islands 2009 Census of Housing and Population: Report on migration and urbanization. Honiara: Solomon Islands National Statistical Office, 32 pp. Rowling, D., et al. (1995). "Family planning: personal and political perspectives from Choiseul Province, Solomon Islands." Australian Journal of Public Health 19(6): 616-622.

Ministry of Health and Medical Services (1988). Solomon Islands Population

• Policy. Honiara, Government of Solomon Islands.

Solomon Islands Government (2002). Report on the 1999 Population and Housing census: Analysis, Honiara: Statistics Office. Solomon Islands Government (2013). 2009 Population and housing census: National report (volume 2) Analysis. Honiara, Solomon Islands National Statistical Office. Solomon Islands Government (2016). National Population Policy 2017-2026. Honiara, Ministry of Development Planning and Aid Coordination. UNDP (2016). Human Development Report 2016: Human development for everyone, New York: United Nations Development Program.