PANEL I: PANEL I: DECENT JOBS FOR YOUTH: DECENT JOBS FOR YOUTH: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

HIGH HIGH-

• LEVEL PANEL OF STAKEHOLDERS AND PARTNERS

LEVEL PANEL OF STAKEHOLDERS AND PARTNERS

PANEL I: PANEL I: DECENT JOBS FOR YOUTH: DECENT JOBS FOR YOUTH: THE ROAD FOR SOCIO THE ROAD FOR SOCIO-

• ECONOMIC PROGRESS

ECONOMIC PROGRESS AND SOCIAL JUSTICE AND SOCIAL JUSTICE

Dorothea Schmidt Dorothea Schmidt Employment Specialist Employment Specialist Decent Work Team for North Africa Decent Work Team for North Africa

STAKEHOLDERS STAKEHOLDERS’ ’ AND DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS AND DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS’ ’ CONFERENCE CONFERENCE EMPLOYMENT FOR STABILITY AND SOCIO EMPLOYMENT FOR STABILITY AND SOCIO-

• ECONOMIC PROGRESS

ECONOMIC PROGRESS IN NORTH AFRICA IN NORTH AFRICA Cairo, Cairo, 18 18-

• 19

19th

th April 2012

April 2012

Message 1: GDP growth was considerable Message 1: GDP growth was considerable and did not lag behind Asian tigers and did not lag behind Asian tigers

Source: IMF, October 2011 Source: IMF, October 2011

Message 2: Message 2: Job creation did take place, the employment Job creation did take place, the employment response to output growth in the Arab countries response to output growth in the Arab countries was almost double that in the Asian economies was almost double that in the Asian economies (respectively 55% compared to 30%) (respectively 55% compared to 30%)

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011 Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Message 3: Message 3: Education has improved in terms of numbers, Education has improved in terms of numbers, especially for women; in terms of quality the especially for women; in terms of quality the progress has been less obvious. progress has been less obvious.

Message 4: Demographic trends are (still) positive Message 4: Demographic trends are (still) positive

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011 Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Message 5: Labour market Message 5: Labour market

• utcomes remain challenging
• utcomes remain challenging

Challenge 1: High unemployment rates, especially for young people and women

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011 Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Youth unemployment (15 Youth unemployment (15-

• 24 years) rates

24 years) rates by world regions by world regions

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011 Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Challenge 2: High unemployment rates across all income and education levels

Source: World Bank, 2009

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011 Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Challenge 3: Low labour force participation rates

Challenge 4: High employment dependency ratio

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011 Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Table 2: Number of jobs (millions) that would need to be created by 2016 (various scenarios) If the LFP rate Remains constant at its 2011 level Increases to 60% If unemployment rate Constant at 2011 Reduced to 6% Reduced to 6% North Africa 6,3 10,1 27,9

Challenge 5: Demand side constraints

Source: Author Source: Author’ ’s calculations based on ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, Oct s calculations based on ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

• ber 2011

Challenge 6: Lack of high quality employment

Indicator 1: Vulnerable employment

Indicator 2: Working poverty at the US$ 2 a day level

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011 Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Challenge 7: high public employment share (between 10 and 80 per cent)

Source: ILO, 2012 Source: ILO, 2012

Productivity levels and changes measured as output (in total US$) per person employed, world regions 1991 to 2011

Challenge 8: Lack of productivity growth

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011 Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Challenge 9: Slow structural shifts

Manufacturing Services

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011 Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Challenge 10: Social Protection coverage is very low

and North Africa

Percentage of people covered

Source: ILO, 2012 Source: ILO, 2012

Challenge 11: Lack of social dialogue linked to governments (prior to the revolutions) non-representation of youth and women Challenge 12: Non-conducive environment for enterprise creation (especially MSMEs) Challenge 13: Weak employment policies Lack of implementation Challenge 14: Mismanaged migration Brain drain, bad working conditions, discrimination Challenge 15: Lack of solid and transparent labour market information

Conclusions Conclusions

It is not a surprise that these labour market deficiencies

added to the frustration of people in the region and continue to be one of the main drivers of protest in all countries

The challenges need to be tackled to ensure social

stability and economic progress

It is not about creating any jobs, it is about creating

decent jobs

The challenges can only be solved if all partners will be

involved

Thanks for your Thanks for your attention attention